"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 221
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C.; THURSDAY, November 18, 2004
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. POLITICAL TERRORISM IN SUMY AGAINST YOUNG PEOPLE
Personal Report from Natalka Lenstra in Sumy in northeastern Ukraine
International Election Observer from Canada
Sent to The Action Ukraine Report
>From Sumy, Ukraine, Wednesday, Nov17, 2004
2. AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL NAMES SIX SUMY RESIDENTS
SENTENCED TO 10 DAYS OF ADMINISTRATIVE ARREST
PRISONERS OF CONSCIENCE
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, Nov 17, 2004
3. "UKRAINIAN PRO-DEMOCRACY GROUP PROTESTS"
By MARA D. BELLABY, Associated Press Writer
AP, Kiev, Ukraine, Wednesday, November 17, 2004
4. POLICE "PLANNING ARRESTS OF OPPOSITION ACTIVISTS"
Ukrayinska Pravda web site, Kiev, in Ukrainian 17 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Wed, Nov 17, 2004
5. "UKRAINE IS FACING REAL ORDEAL, WE NEED SUPPORT/HELP"
----- Original Message -----
From: "Maria M. Dmytrieva" To: "UKRAINE REPORT 2004"
Sent: Monday, November 15, 2004 11:37 AM; Subject: Ukrainian Elections
6. "UKRAINE VOTES AMIDST WIDESPREAD CORRUPTION"
OP-ED: by Stefan Iwaskewycz, Pulse of the Twin Cities
Minneapolis, Minnesota, Wednesday, 17 November, 2004
7. UKRAINE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE YANUKOVYCH TURNS
TO WHEAT TO COURT UKRAINE'S FARM VOTE
Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Wed, November 17, 2004
8. KUCHMA CALLS FOR ACCELERATED INTRODUCTION OF
AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 17, 2004
9. KUCHMA CALLS ON FARMERS TO ASPIRE TO ACHIEVE
WESTERN EUROPEAN INDICATORS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 17, 2004
10. "PUTIN WOOS UKRAINE WITH A RUSSIAN COMMON MARKET"
Choice in Sunday's presidential election: move closer to Europe or Russia?
By Fred Weir, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
The Christian Science Monitor, Boston, MA, Thu, Nov.18, 2004
11. Q&A: "AN INDEPENDENT PATH FOR UKRAINE"
By Peter Lavelle for United Press International (UPI)
UPI, Moscow, Russia, Monday,, Nov 15, 2004
12. "A LITTLE HELP FOR ITS FRIENDS
The Kremlin Offers Carrots in Neighboring Votes"
By Dmitry Babich, Russia Profile
Unwrapping the Mystery Inside the Enigma
Russia Profile.org, Moscow, Russia, November 17, 2004
13. "UKRAINE'S RUN-OFF--CHOOSE YOUR VICTOR"
Yanukovych is a thug. The story about his two terms in jail for
assault and battery are well known....
OPINION: Contributed by Ben Aris, freelance journalist
Prime-Tass, Moscow, Russia, Wed, Nov.17, 2004
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 221: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
========================================================
1. POLITICAL TERRORISM IN SUMY AGAINST YOUNG PEOPLE
Personal Report from Natalka Lenstra in Sumy in northeastern Ukraine
International Election Observer from Canada
Sent to The Action Ukraine Report from
Sumy, Ukraine, Wednesday, November 17, 2004
SUMY - As an Observer, several of our group had the opportunity to make
ourselves known and we hope that we have begun to serve our purpose here.
Several youths/students, we are told about 10, that have been arrested for
no apparent reason ...other than being supporters of Yushchenko. Families
and lawyers, according to sources, know nothing of the whereabouts or
condition of these students. Several students are currently on a hunger
strike in front of the TVK...the Central Election Office of Sumy and have
by now been striking for about 70 hours.
Yesterday "someone" brought what was to resemble a hot-dog cart beside
the boys so that the smell of warming kobassa might discourage the striking
youth. When reporters and cameras were present ...they were quickly
removed. Many are in a panic as to the condition and health of the arrested
students as families have been denied the right to see their children or
even know their location. We understand that parents and lawyers were
bombarded with tear gas when they grouped together to inquire about their
children/clients
We took the liberty of demanding to see the head of the Appeals Court,
Valerie Kramarenko! We were escorted into his chamber after a short wait
and we introduced ourselves as Official International Observers and an
International Reporter. The judge refused to speak to us if we recorded the
conversation and said he was not doing any interviews. However if we
wished to sit down and talk he would gladly co-operate.
At first we were told that this was not a political matter. Mr. Kramarenko
said that everything was in the hands of the police and he was only and
administrator of justice once it reaches the court level. He did not know
where the boys were or their physical status. Originally he was evasive as
to when the court date would be. At first he suggested 3 to 4 days and by
the end of the "interview" he thought this could possibly be shortened to
only a few more days as he already had been sent the papers but had not
had time to review them.
During this session we reassured him that the entire world was awaiting the
results of his court and the status of the boys. I told him that the
Canadian Ambassador was in Kyiv as well as other political figures and we
would be reporting to them as well. The reporter suggested that anyone or
their families involved in the illegal arrest , beating or improper legal
proceedings might be denied a visa to Canada, US or any other European
country. (We have heard that several prominent people are already selling
off their Real Estate in Sumy). We informed him that this would be on
internet and the world was awaiting a quick action by his court.
Mr. Kramarenko considerable "softened" and assured us that although the
internet world was rather foreign to them.... he would look at the situation
as soon as he could process the papers.WE ASKED IF WE COULD SEE
THE BOYS AND HE MADE A CALL BUT COULD NOT REACH THE
RIGHT PARTY. However he did tell us to go tomorrow directly to police
station and inquire there. We reassured him that as soon as we knew of
their safety we would pass the word to the families and we also told them
that the people were getting agitated and they did not want this before the
elections.
Hopefully the boys will be released in the next day or two and things will
relax here. One hungerstriker has been taken to hospital on Wednesday.
Part of the group from Sumy, Natalka Lenstra -30-
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
=======================================================
2. AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL NAMES SIX SUMY RESIDENTS
SENTENCED TO 10 DAYS OF ADMINISTRATIVE ARREST
PRISONERS OF CONSCIENCE
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 17, 2004
KYIV - International remedial organization Amnesty International names
six Sumy residents who had been detained on the night of election on
October 31 and sentenced to 10 days of administrative arrest, to be
prisoners of conscience. This was disclosed in the statement of the
organization, the text of which Ukrainian News obtained.
"There are strong indications that the six people have been arbitrarily
arrested for exercising their right to freedom of expression," Amnesty
International said. According to Amnesty International, local Sumy
authorities have violated international standards by refusing to admit
lawyers and families of the accused to the trial and by failing to inform
them of the detainees' whereabouts. The organization calls on Ukrainian
authorities for immediate and unconditional release of the detainees.
As Ukrainian News earlier reported, nearly 100 residents of Sumy held
a protest action on November 13 at the building of the Kovpakivskyi
Court against the arrest of 10 city residents that were arrested on the
night following the election of October 31 near polling station No. 46
(the premises Kompresormash Scientific and Research Institute), but
they were subsequently released.
Hearings into the case against the detainees took place in the court
during this time. Oleksandr Takul, a lawyer for the Pravozakhyst public
bureau who witnessed the happening, told Ukrainian News that when
the police began to take the convicted men from the building, the
protesters obstructed officers, and 15 people were injured, of which
4 were hospitalized as a result of the clashes.
According to the PR Center of the Department of the Internal Affairs
Ministry in the Sumy region, the Kovpakivskyi District Court on this day
heard the case on bringing to administrative account the 6 residents of
Sumy for violating public order and resisting the lawful demands of police
workers at one of the polling stations in the city on the night following
the first round of the election on October 31.
According to the court's ruling, administrative punishment was meted
out against the offenders in the form of administrative arrest for 10 days.
The PR center of the Department of the Internal Affairs Ministry discloses
that 2 members of the investigative and operative group were injured
during the clashes at the court's building.
Later on this same day, nearly 2,000 people have held a rally in Sumy
as a sign of protest against the sentencing of six city residents to 10 days
of administrative arrest.
Twenty-six students of Sumy higher educational institutions, all activists
of the student resistance action, declared an indefinite hunger strike,
demanding the immediate release of those that were arrested.
Amnesty International, an international organization for human rights,
expressed concern on the end of October over news relating to the
arrest of members of the Pora campaign. -30-
======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
=======================================================
3. "UKRAINIAN PRO-DEMOCRACY GROUP PROTESTS"
By MARA D. BELLABY, Associated Press Writer
AP, Kiev, Ukraine, Wednesday, November 17, 2004
KIEV, Ukraine - Their name means "It's Time." Their slogan shows a
ticking clock, and their ability to bring thousands of students to the
streets is spooking the government as the country prepares for Sunday's
pivotal presidential election.
The student activist organization Pora has thrust itself in the spotlight
with its demands that the election be fair, drawing police action from
authorities who accuse it of seeking to overthrow the government.
Ukraine is in the final throes of a heated presidential campaign that has
seen pro-democracy activists and government party supporters vying for
the support of an undecided electorate in this former Soviet republic of
48 million.
The student activist organization Pora has attracted some 10,000 members
nationwide with its regular rallies. It officially claims to have no
political affiliation - but its members make no secret that their sympathies
lie with the opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, a Western-leaning
reformer.
"The government wanted to quietly manipulate the election, but we are
interfering," said Pora activist Anastasia Bezverkha. "Our actions are
raising social tension and that's what Ukraine needs right now."
The election pitting Yushchenko against Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych,
who is backed by the outgoing government and the Kremlin, is considered
a key test of democracy in this ex-communist nation. Tensions were high
even before the Oct. 31 first round of voting, in which Yushchenko and
Yanukovych virtually tied, forcing the run-off.
International election observers complained of heavy state media bias
and government interference in favor of Yanukovych and called it a step
backward for democracy.
Pora called a massive one-day "student strike" on Wednesday, combining
with other student movements to demand a fair vote in Sunday's second
round. Hundreds of Pora activists - some covering their faces with
trademark yellow and black bandanas - filled a Kiev square ahead of a
planned concert, handing out leaflets to businessmen and elderly grand-
mothers passing by.
In the western city of Lviv, about 8,000 students, representing Pora and
other student movements, carried posters reading: "Dictatorship will
collapse!" and "Everyone should fight!" Police stood in columns watching.
Authorities, meanwhile, have accused Pora activists of terrorism, plotting
to overthrow the government and arrested them daily for handing out
leaflets. Armed police raided their Kiev headquarters and evicted them
after claiming to have found explosives. Yushchenko has wooed the
students with his pro-Europe attitude and Pora protests often join up
with Yushchenko rallies.
"These students see this election as crucial to their future," said Andriy
Bychenko, a sociologist with Kiev's Razumkov Center think-tank. "If
Ukraine chooses an anti-Europe course, then these students won't have
a European future and by the time they can change it, there won't be a
place for them in Europe anymore."
Yanukovych's supporters have accused Pora and other opposition groups
of planning to seize power if the election does not go their way.
Pora's decision to put revolutionary icon Ernesto "Che" Guevara -
wearing a traditional Ukrainian embroidered shirt - on their T-shirts also
raised eyebrows. "I wouldn't say that we are trying to make a revolution,"
said Nina Sorokopud, a 22-year-old student in Kiev in the group's
temporary basement office. "For us, Che is a symbol of protest and
freedom - not of revolution."
Pora plans to send observers to as many polling stations as possible Sunday.
As for what comes next, they aren't yet sure. "Groups like this are usually
not eternal, but that almost makes them more threatening for the
government," Bychenko said. "They want to act, and they want to act now.
The cause is urgent for them." -30- [Action Ukraine Monitoring Service]
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
=======================================================
4. POLICE "PLANNING ARRESTS OF OPPOSITION ACTIVISTS"
Ukrayinska Pravda web site, Kiev, in Ukrainian 17 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Wed, November 17, 2004
KIEV - An opposition web site has quoted "reliable sources" as saying that
the Ukrainian police are planning mass arrests of opposition candidate
Viktor Yushchenko's allies ahead of the 21 November presidential election
runoff. The following is the text of report by Ukrainian Ukrayinska Pravda
web site on 17 November:
Mass arrests of Yushchenko team members are being planned on the even
of the elections. Well-informed sources have told Ukrayinska Pravda that
representatives of the Prosecutor-General's Office and the Interior Ministry
held a meeting on 16 November.
They discussed a special operation code-named Fan [Ukrainian - Veyer],
under which members of Yushchenko's entourage will be detained under
various pretexts under administrative charges (up to 10 days of arrest).
During the mass arrests, opposition activists, HQ staff and Yushchenko
team members will be detained. The operation will kick off on 19
November 2004.
"Shut them up by 19 November, and decide later," government
representatives have decided. From the Prosecutor-General's Office, the
person in charge of the operation is Deputy Prosecutor-General Viktor
Kudryavtsev. From the Interior Ministry, the person directly implementing
the operation is the first deputy interior minister and head of the main
department for organized crime, Mykhaylo Manin.
[Under Ukrainian legislation, parliament members cannot be arrested
without parliament's consent. Yushchenko and many of his leading allies
are parliament members.] -30- [Action Ukraine Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
========================================================
5. "UKRAINE IS FACING REAL ORDEAL, WE NEED SUPPORT/HELP"
----- Original Message -----
From: "Maria M. Dmytrieva"
To: "UKRAINE REPORT 2004" ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net
Sent: Monday, November 15, 2004 11:37 AM
Subject: Ukrainian Elections
Dear editors of the UKRAINE REPORT 2004 mailing list, could you
publish this?
I am addressing you as my country, Ukraine, is facing a real ordeal --
and we are going to do whatever possible to protect our right for free
self-determination.
But we need support and help.
Our authorities will not hesitate to falsify the results of the elections
(they already do not) and even to shed blood if the fraud fails -- but
if enough foreign observers and journalists are present here, it will be
not that easy to silence us.
Please address your local, federal and national mass media (both
printed and electronic) -- ask them to send journalists here.
Do not let the Soviet bureaucrat and criminal old-timers force our
country to go the Bielorussian road.
With best regards, Maria -30-
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
Additional names for the distribution list are always welcome
========================================================
6. "UKRAINE VOTES AMIDST WIDESPREAD CORRUPTION"
OP-ED: by Stefan Iwaskewycz, Pulse of the Twin Cities
Minneapolis, Minnesota, Wednesday, 17 November, 2004
Thirteen years after its declaration of independence was the final nail in
the coffin of the USSR, Ukraine is in the fight of its life for the kind of
post-Soviet future it will pursue. On October 31 a first round of
presidential elections occurred that have been widely condemned as rife
with violations of the protocols of free and fair elections, including the
use of physical intimidation and violence by authorities.
According to the official count by Ukraine's government, no candidate
received 50% of the vote necessary to be declared winner. The two
leaders in the first round, the status quo candidate Viktor Yanukovych
and the opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, will square off in a
second round on November 21.
There is little doubt that the first round was rigged to the benefit of
Yanukovych. Independent counts show that Yushchenko gained a clear
majority over him, and taking into consideration the effect of widespread
violations and the fact that the government, for undisclosed reasons, ceased
counting votes in the western part of Ukraine where Yushchenko is most
popular and received a clear majority, it appears that Yushchenko in fact
already won the election with over 50%.
The present situation in Ukraine leaves much to be desired. The euphoria of
independence in 1991 dissipated as the economy tumbled. An oligarchy of
ex-Communist Party chiefs and Soviet-era industrial bosses formed, organized
in mafia-like clans that seized control of Ukraine's government and economy.
Ukraine's current president, Leonid Kuchma, was a Soviet factory director
and Yanukovych is believed to have risen to power through "the Donetsk
clan."
The backhanded business dealings and outright theft of foreign aid money
by oligarchs caused many investors and development agencies to flee
Ukraine, while oligarchs' pillaging of Ukraine's domestic wealth has left
most Ukrainians hovering in poverty. The economy has begun to rebound,
but not before an estimated 7 million have left to work abroad.
Ukraine is a nation of strategic importance to Russia and the West. Ukraine
participates in NATO's Partnership for Peace, and the West looks forward
to a democratic Ukraine someday joining the EU. Russia seeks Ukraine's
cooperation in creating a Single Economic Space, and Russian oil and gas
exports to the EU cross Ukraine's territory. The West generally prefers
Yushchenko, while Putin endorses Yanukovych.
Yanukovych is the darling of authorities in Ukraine, committed to preserving
oligarchic rule. He is backed by a coalition of parties allied with outgoing
President Kuchma, one of the most controversial figures of the post-Soviet
world. In 2000, evidence emerged implicating him in the murder of the
opposition journalist Gregory Gongadze. In the "Kuchmagate" scandal that
resulted, demonstrations occurred calling for Kuchma's ouster and
prosecution. Kuchma survived, but with his reputation and power shaken.
30 journalists have been killed or disappeared in Ukraine since 1991, but
none since Gongadze. Nonetheless, attacks and intimidation of oppositionists
remain par for the course.
Kuchmagate was pivotal in the development of the opposition. Both
parliamentary and grassroots oppositions already existed since 1991, but
without much unity and effect. Opposition to authorities spread after Kuchma
sacked Yushchenko from his post as prime minister. As prime minister in
2000-2001, Yushchenko oversaw reforms that resulted in payment of
months-overdue pensions and wages, and began reform of the energy sector,
Ukraine's most corrupt sector of the economy from whence many oligarchs
sprang. After his ouster, the parliamentary opposition overall unified, and
the subsequent Kuchmagate actions galvanized unity between parliamentary
and grassroots oppositions, united today in effort to uproot the oligarchy,
presently by electing Yushchenko as president.
It is widely viewed that Kuchma and other oligarchs fear prosecution under
an opposition government for crimes committed in their pursuit of power.
Kuchma has therefore used so-called "administrative resources," a series of
control mechanisms over the media and cabinet ministries at the disposal of
the President, to promote Yanukovych. State television networks have been
ordered to give positive spin and more airtime to Yanukovych. Non-state
networks have been threatened with bogus lawsuits and subjected to other
intimidation tactics for not towing the official line, and activist
organizations agitating for fair elections have been accused of fostering
terrorism.
Nonetheless, Yanukovych is popular in portions of Ukraine's electorate. A
significant number of ethnic Ukrainians support him, but his popularity is
greatest in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, where the majority
population is Russian. Yanukovych promises to recognize dual-citizenship
with Russia, to make Russian a second official language, and to increase
cooperation with Russia.
Cultural matters in Ukraine are very sensitive. The government under Kuchma
has done little to promote use of the Ukrainian language, and given the very
low level of investment and prestige accorded to Ukrainian-language arts by
the oligarchy, the entertainment industry in Ukraine is dominated by
Russian-language variants. Furthermore, given that Ukraine already
cooperates tremendously with its northern neighbor, most oppositionists
regard Yanukovych as intending more than cooperation.
Indeed, Yushchenko's policies toward Russia are more accurately
described as cooperation between equal partners than Yanukovych's,
for whom cooperation means Russian backing of Ukraine's Russophile
oligarchy in return for promises to work for further reintegration of
Ukraine with Russia. However, not much of Ukraine's electorate seems
eager to pursue this path: Yanukovych did not perform in eastern and
southern Ukraine as well as authorities expected, and the majority in the
key central-Ukrainian state and city of Kyiv voted for Yushchenko.
Authorities seem nervous that Ukrainians might carry out their own version
of the Rose Revolution that swept the corrupt oligarchy out of power in
Georgia last year. Authorities have made statements that demonstrations for
fair elections "put undue pressure on the electorate," and Kuchma organized
a military holiday in Kyiv just days before the election, with the result
that thousands of soldiers remained in the capital for the first round.
Everything hangs in the balance for the second round: Will the authorities
dare to repeat again what they did the first round, and if so, will the
Ukrainian opposition be able to carry out its own Rose Revolution? -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: http://www.pulsetc.com/article.php?sid=1480
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
========================================================
7. UKRAINE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE YANUKOVYCH TURNS
TO WHEAT TO COURT UKRAINE'S FARM VOTE
Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, November 17, 2004
KIEV -- Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych courted the
important farm vote Wednesday, holding up a sheaf of wheat in a
choreographed ceremony reminiscent of Soviet days.
Yanukovych made a surprise appearance at a gala concert honoring
national Farm Workers' Day, standing next to outgoing President Leonid
Kuchma, who has endorsed his campaign. Presented with the elaborately
wrapped sheaf by a small child in national costume, Kuchma swung toward
his prime minister and handed it to him.
"This wheat sheaf is the very basis of our people's lives," Kuchma
said in remarks broadcast live on television. "I want this sheaf to be
safeguarded by a reliable pair of hands. I am therefore turning it over to
the prime minister."
Yanukovych vowed farmers would remain "as united as the Ukrainian
people itself. Our Ukrainian land will always provide only such golden
sheaves." He then marched through the hall, the sheaf held high over his
head. Addressing his Cabinet an hour earlier, a beaming Yanukovych said
Ukraine had produced the highest grain crop since the Soviet collapse in
1991 -- 45 million tons.
Yanukovych, backed by Ukraine's establishment and by Russia, is neck
and neck with liberal Viktor Yushchenko as campaigning goes down to the
wire in Sunday's runoff vote. The campaign has highlighted different
approaches toward Russia, with Yanukovych seeing an economic union of
former Soviet republics as the key to prosperity and Yushchenko urging
Ukrainians to move closer to the EU. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 221: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
Letters to the editor are always welcome
========================================================
8. KUCHMA CALLS FOR ACCELERATED INTRODUCTION OF
AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 17, 2004
KYIV - President Leonid Kuchma has called for accelerated introduction
of insurance of risks in the agricultural industry. Kuchma made the call in
an address he delivered at the Ukraina Palace to commemorate the Day
of Agricultural Workers.
"No matter how power state support for the sector is, it cannot replace a
system of market insurance of risks... And it is not only a matter of money.
Optimal combination of the mechanisms for state support and insurance is
necessary," Kuchma said.
According to Kuchma, no more than 10% of the agricultural sector is
presently covered by insurance, compared with almost 90% in Western
Europe. "Remember how provision of loans to the industry started increasing
at a fast pace several years ago thanks to partial compensation of interest
payments on loans," Kuchma stressed.
"The volume [of credits], as I have already said, has increased 30-fold in
five years. We should reach the same level of insurance of the agricultural
sector in 4-5 years," he added.
As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the League of Insurance Organizations
called on the parliament in May to include UAH 500 million in the state
budget for 2004 for compensating farmers for insurance of their agricultural
risks. Individual insurance companies or associations of insurance companies
(pools) insure against various agricultural risks in Ukraine. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
========================================================
9. KUCHMA CALLS ON FARMERS TO ASPIRE TO ACHIEVE
WESTERN EUROPEAN INDICATORS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 17, 2004
KYIV - President Leonid Kuchma has called on Ukrainian farmers to aim
to achieve Western European indicators. Kuchma made the call in an address
he delivered at the Ukraina Palace to commemorate the Day of Agricultural
Workers.
In his address, Kuchma noted the high crop yield in the country and the fall
in the energy and labor expenditures on production. "We know very well
that our records actually do not reach the potentials of the agricultural
sector. We have every reason to orient toward all the indicators of Western
Europe," Kuchma said.
He also said that Ukraine has favorable natural conditions for development
of its agricultural industry. "However, this is not enough. Entrepreneurial,
innovative, or - as they say today - active innovative activities by
landowners are required," Kuchma said. As Ukrainian News earlier
reported, Ukraine harvested 45 million tons of grain this year. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTNOTE: As one who has worked in the area of promoting the
private development of Ukraine's agriculture and food system for several
years it can be said that major changes in the government's policies and
programs toward the economic development of the food system, from
field to table, from producer to consumer, have to take place before real
European or US type productivity levels will be achieved in Ukraine.
Mother Nature and the hard work of those who labor on the farms were
responsible for the larger crop this year, not new and innovative government
programs. Most of the governments Soviet-type agricultural programs
during the past 13 years have worked against increased agricultural
productivity, not for it. [Editor]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
Your financial support is needed, please send a check.
========================================================
10. "PUTIN WOOS UKRAINE WITH A RUSSIAN COMMON MARKET"
Choice in Sunday's presidential election: move closer to Europe or Russia?
By Fred Weir, Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor
The Christian Science Monitor, Boston, MA, Thu, Nov.18, 2004
MOSCOW - The fate of a key Kremlin plan to build a post-Soviet common
market may hang in the balance this weekend as the voters of Ukraine choose
a new president in a cliffhanger election.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has risked international condemnation by
making two high-profile forays into Ukraine in the past month to all but
openly campaign for pro-Moscow prime minister Viktor Yanukovich. Mr.
Putin hints at dire economic consequences if the pro-European Union and
NATO-leaning liberal Viktor Yushchenko should be elected.
On the other hand, many critics fear a victory for Mr. Yanukovich would
end Ukraine's fragile post-Soviet independence and chain it to an
increasingly authoritarian and imperial Russia.
The stakes are high for Putin, who has described the four-nation Common
Economic Space (CES) free-trade agreement, slated to be signed next
spring, as vital to his plans for modernizing Russia's economy and doubling
its gross domestic product within a decade. Some Russian experts suggest
the new union, to be headquartered in Kiev, might even evolve into a
Eurasia alternative to the EU.
Though the post-Soviet states of Belarus and Kazakhstan are firmly on
board, the scheme probably cannot be realized without Ukraine, after
Russia the most important component of the former USSR's industrial
complex and its agricultural breadbasket. "We would like to restore what
was lost with the Soviet Union's disintegration," Putin told a meeting of
post-Soviet leaders last June. "We must steer toward integration ...
concerted action is the only way to survive in conditions of [global]
competition."
After a decade of benign neglect toward its ex-Soviet neighbors, Moscow
has grown much more attentive. Russia must create an alternative to the
expanding European Union, or may itself be doomed to become little more
than a giant raw materials warehouse for the workshops of Europe, China,
and Japan, says Ruslan Grinberg, director of the independent Institute of
International and Political Studies in Moscow.
"This is the integration of last hope," for Russia, he says. "Our economy is
growing, but not developing. We need modernization and technological
breakthrough. This can only be done if Ukraine and Russia unite their
efforts."
While the Kremlin's interest in integration is chiefly economic, the core
objections in Kiev tend to be political. Ukrainian experts worry that, in a
country where almost half the population describes Russian as their "first
language," Yanukovich's plan to give Russian official status will end all
hope of creating an independent, Ukrainian-speaking national culture.
After more than 300 years as part of Russia and the USSR, Ukraine
needs to move vigorously westward, or risk being swallowed up again,
they say.
Others fear that Ukraine's sharply-contested presidential election, for all
its flaws, could be democracy's swan song if the country moves back into
the shadow of its eastern neighbors. Russia under Putin has grown
increasingly authoritarian, while Belarus and Kazakhstan are ruled by
virtual presidents-for-life.
"With Yushchenko, we will have a chance for democracy and
independence; with Yanukovich it's Russia's embrace and probable
dictatorship," says Oleksandr Shuhko, director of the independent
Center for Peace, Conversion, and Foreign Policy in Kiev. "For the
first, and possibly the last time, Ukrainians have a real, clearly-defined
choice."
The nation of 48 million split in the Oct. 31 first round of the election,
giving each candidate about 40 percent of the vote, with a slight edge
for Mr. Yushchenko. Clashing in a televised debate this week, both
acknowledged the stakes in Sunday's final round. "This is not a conflict
between two Viktors, but a struggle between two world views, two
moral systems," said Yushchenko.
Russian experts argue that the CES project, which would begin as a
free-trade zone but could develop into a full currency and customs union,
has powerful economic logic behind it. Much of Ukraine's Soviet-era
industry can find markets only in Russia, while the country remains
dependent on generously subsidized Russian oil and gas. Some 3 million
Ukrainians, unable to find work at home, live in Russia. Putin, visiting
Kiev last month, pledged to reduce travel restrictions between the two
countries.
"Ukraine needs the CES, and if Yushchenko becomes president the
whole idea will be threatened," says Kirril Frolov, an expert with the
official Institute of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Moscow.
"Only this market will permit the Ukrainian economy to survive."
But some say the Moscow-friendly option will only isolate Ukraine from
the global economy and make it dependent on cheap Russian energy.
Yushchenko calls for tough market reforms to prepare Ukraine for
eventual entry into the EU.
"In the past two years, the EU has moved right up to our borders, and
it has become obvious that Europe is the economic space we should
want to join," says Volodimyr Gorbach, an expert with the independent
Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kiev. "But that represents the
hard path of reform. Taking Russia's subsidies looks like the easy way."
-------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1118/p07s01-woeu.html
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
Your financial support is needed, please send a check.
========================================================
11. Q&A: "AN INDEPENDENT PATH FOR UKRAINE"
By Peter Lavelle for United Press International (UPI)
UPI, Moscow, Russia, Monday, Mon, Nov 15, 2004
MOSCOW, Nov. 15 (UPI) -- United Press International's Russia
analyst Peter Lavelle spoke with E. Morgan Williams, executive
director of the Ukrainian Federation of America, publisher and editor
of the influential "The Action Ukraine Report," and currently in Kiev
as an election observer, on the importance of Ukraine's run-off
presidential election slated for Nov. 21.
UPI: In your opinion, what is at stake in this election? Is it accurate to
characterize this presidential election as a choice between European
integration and a return to the Kremlin's fold?
Williams: This is a very high-stakes election for Ukraine. Ukraine needs
millions of new jobs and millions of higher paying jobs. To accomplish
this, Ukraine has to develop a type of open, transparent, internationally
acceptable economic and political system that is backed up by the
rule of law implemented by a stable, level playing field, professional
court system.
Only then will Ukraine be attractive to the domestic and international
investors capable of creating the millions of jobs Ukraine must have if
her people, from Kiev to the smallest village, are going to prosper.
Direct foreign investment in Ukraine is very low and will not change
dramatically if Ukraine moves to return to the Kremlin's fold. Ukraine
needs much more than Russia.
Ukraine needs the international business community. The former Soviet
economic system is not attractive to the international business community,
and (it) is not very interested in a government in Ukraine that has to meet
with Russian President Vladimir Putin every three weeks or so.
Ukraine has had some good economic growth numbers, but these come
from a very low base. The real "economic miracle" that could take place
in Ukraine has not yet happened for sure. So far one has only seen a
"glimpse" of what could happen if the government in Kiev creates the
right economic environment.
Q. Given that the first round was marred by voting irregularities and
charges of outright fraud, what precautions is the opposition taking to
ensure a cleaner outcome in the second round?
A. The campaign leaders working for the opposition know very well
the types of gross voting irregularities and outright fraud that took place
in Round One. From what is known, they are organizing to offset the
weaknesses in their monitoring system found in Round One. This is a
very difficult task. They also know they have to win by a very large
margin or else the election will be stolen.
The old Soviet system, much of which is still in place -- run from the
top down by the authorities from Kiev into every city, town and village
across Ukraine -- is a very tough, mean, and hardball system. Reports
indicate they are very adept and skilled in a broad range of activities
designed to add illegal votes for the candidate of the authorities and to
take away votes from the opposition candidate.
Q. There has much discussion and commentary that the opposition is
prepared to attempt a "Chestnut Revolution" if the election results are
deemed to be rigged. Is this a serious possibility?
A. Most observers do not think this is a serious possibility. Ukrainians
are not prone to this type of activity, and Ukraine is a very large country.
However, having said this, it is not entirely clear what will happen if one
candidate wins by a large margin, only to have the election stolen.
Q. Ukraine's elections have shown that the country is very much divided.
Irrespective of the election outcome, what needs to happen to bring
about greater unity among Ukrainians?
A. Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen (men and women)
that they are a very large country with 48 million people. They have a
large land mass and enough wealth and population to be a very strong,
significant country in their own right on the world scene.
Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that they now have
the best opportunity ever to become a strong, independent, democratic,
prosperous country. Many Ukrainians and their ancestors fought for the
opportunity now at hand for hundreds of years. The land is stained with
the blood of those who fought for the opportunity that Ukraine now has.
The time is now; there is no need to wait any longer. Wonderful, exciting
opportunities are staring all Ukrainians right in the face. Why do not more
Ukrainians see this clearly and passionately?
Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that their weakness
of identity as a nation and their weakness of self-respect and pride as a
nation have made them rather easy targets in the past for those who love
to dominate and build empires, such as the Muscovites.
Ukrainians need to be reminded of the tens of millions of Ukrainians
that were murdered during the days of Soviet Ukraine through the
famine-terror (Holodomor) genocide of the early 1930's and on
through the rest of the murderous programs imposed by the Soviets
based in Moscow, including the dispersion of millions of Ukrainians
throughout the Soviet Union.
Ukraine is a post-genocidal, post-Soviet society that had much of its
real leadership murdered, imprisoned or dispersed for over 70 years
and even before that. This is a tough legacy to confront. A whole new
leadership structure has to be developed.
Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that Russia does
not need to control Ukraine to be a significant country in its own right.
Ukraine needs a normal relationship with all of its neighbors and not to
be dominated by those in Moscow who love to build empires, to
control and manipulate their neighbors.
Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that Ukraine does
not need a symbiotic or parasitical relationship with Russia. Ukraine
does not need to allow Russia to walk all over it. Ukraine needs to
stand up on its own two feet and work for a normal relationship with
Russia, not a subservient one. This is very difficult as Russia is so large,
so wealthy, so dominant and so empire oriented.
Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that their best
opportunity to be strong and prosperous is to run their own country
and not be running to Moscow every few weeks asking for support
and special favors. This is a losing proposition for Ukraine, always
has been and always will be. There is no need for this, and it should
stop immediately.
Only a strong, independent Ukraine that develops European type
structures will be able to create the millions of jobs needed by her
people. The name of the game is jobs, and it is not rocket science as
to what the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people need to
do to create the environment that will allow the millions of jobs needed
to become a reality. So in the end the Ukrainian people can finally
have the society and prosperity that has been robbed from them in the
past.
Q. Why aren't there more statesmen (men and women) in Ukraine who
are ready and eager to move quickly away from the old Soviet system
and Soviet structures, to move from the Russian dominated past? Why
are there not more statesmen who see the future clearly enough that they
are willing to fight to lead the new nation into the future and not move it
back to the past?
A. Patriotism is not a dirty word as some of the present authorities want
people to think, especially those who want to maintain their power and
are very comfortable with the Soviet-Russian way of doing business and
its top-down, non-democratic, authoritarian political system.
Ukraine needs many more leaders and everyday citizens with a much
stronger sense of patriotism, in the correct meaning of the word and
concept.
A true sense of patriotism, pride and belief in what Ukraine can become,
as a truly independent nation, for the benefit of the millions of people
who live in Ukraine and those millions of citizens who would like to
return to Ukraine is needed in Ukraine today. One can see much
progress in this area in the last few years, but much more progress is
needed.
Ukraine is not Russia, does not need to be and should not want to be.
Ukraine is Ukraine, and hopefully all Ukrainians will work harder to
establish the true and positive identity of Ukraine that the world will see,
recognize and respect. That is when Ukraine will attract the domestic
and international investments needed for jobs and prosperity. -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/?art=1037
Vol 2 no 149 (196) Telecom-gate & a strong-minded Q&A on Ukr
Nov 15, 2004, By Peter Lavelle, plavelle@untimely-thoughts.com
Untimely Thoughts, http://www.untimely-thoughts.com
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
Your financial support is needed, please send a check.
========================================================
12. "A LITTLE HELP FOR ITS FRIENDS
The Kremlin Offers Carrots in Neighboring Votes"
By Dmitry Babich, Russia Profile
Unwrapping the Mystery Inside the Enigma
Russia Profile.org, Moscow, Russia, November 17, 2004
When Olesya, a Ukrainian citizen from the city of Kiev, arrived at Moscow's
East Izmailovo police precinct in late October, she found that life for her
had become easier in the Russian capital. She had come to the precinct to
register her stay in the city, a requirement that foreigners and Russians
without permanent Moscow residency are obliged by city law to fulfill
within three days of their arrival.
"What are you doing here?" another person waiting in line called out to
her. "[President Vladimir] Putin said that Ukrainians can now live in
Russia for up to 90 days without registration. Now you are bigger allies of
Russia than Russians themselves."
Olesya, who chose not to give her surname, was the beneficiary of the
increased attention that has been paid to Ukraine by Russian officials, the
media and the Kremlin in the run-up to Ukrainian presidential elections,
which were set for a second-round runoff between Viktor Yanukovich and
Viktor Yushenko, on Nov. 21, as Russia Profile was going to print. On Oct.
27, just four days before the first round of voting took place, Putin
appeared on a program broadcast live on three Ukrainian television
stations, as well as Russian state television, where he answered questions
from Ukrainian viewers. One question was from a viewer who wanted to
know why Ukrainian citizens were required to register under the same rules
as other foreigners, while Russians are allowed to stay up to 90 days in
Ukraine without registering. Putin agreed to change the requirement for
Ukrainians.
The change, which was officially approved by the government on Nov. 9 and
is unlikely to face much opposition in the State Duma, where the pro-Putin
United Russia party enjoys a comfortable majority, will have a significant
effect on the lives of a large number of Ukrainians. According to Anatoly
Baturkin, head of the Moscow City Migration Service, about 400,000
Ukrainians, mostly migrant workers, live and work in the city.
Putin's announcement appeared not only to be aimed at making life easier
for Ukrainians visiting Russia, but also at giving a boost to candidate
Viktor Yanukovich, the prime minister, who was supported by Ukrainian
President Leonid Kuchma and was campaigning on a platform that included
the maintenance of close ties with Moscow. Yanukovich tried to appeal
directly to Russian-speaking voters by promising a dual-citizenship
agreement with Russia and official status for the Russian language in
Ukraine.
Viktor Yushchenko, the former prime minister and Central Bank president,
made stronger ties with the West a central plank of his platform.
Yushchenko won the first round by a paper-thin 0.5-percent margin.
Given the experience in recent elections in Abkhazia, a separatist region
within Georgia with close ties to Russia, there is the question of just how
effective outside action can be. In Abkhazia, a large percentage of the
population was given Russian citizenship in the late 1990s, following a
bloody conflict between the local inhabitants and Georgian state forces
from 1992 to 1993.
"People needed [Russian citizenship] in order to survive," said Gennady
Aiba, head of the Abkhazian State Tourism Company. "We can't travel
around the world because our country is not recognized officially. Georgians
do not allow us on their territory and the Russian border guards stopped
us at the Russian border as foreigners."
Critics of Yanukovich's dual-citizenship proposal say that the situation is
different with regard to Ukraine and that citizenship and registration
issues in general are simply a card the Kremlin plays in order to help its
preferred candidates win elections in neighboring countries.
"When Yanukovich promises double citizenship, he is bluffing," Mikhail
Spektor, a member of Yushchenko's campaign team, said at a November
press conference in Moscow. "In order to have double citizenship with
Russia, Putin's agreement is not enough. You have to change the
constitution of Ukraine, and for this you need a two-thirds majority in
the Ukrainian parliament, which he does not have."
The granting of Russian citizenship to residents of Abkhazia also drew
fire from the Georgian government, which turned to the European Union
and the United States for support against what it labeled "soft aggression."
Experts have, however, defended Russia's actions on the basis of
realpolitik considerations, as well as on ethical grounds.
"How can we deny Russian citizenship to the people in Abkhazia, who
legally applied for it and passed all the formalities?" Sergey
Yastrzhembsky, Putin's special representatives at talks with the EU, said
at a press-conference in Moscow.Most of the Abkhazians opposed the
collapse of the USSR in early 1990s and never chose to become citizens
of the new independent state of Georgia.
"Russia has double citizenship with Israel," said Kirill Frolov, head of
the Ukraine Department at Moscow's Institute of CIS Countries. "We lived
in the same state with Ukrainians for more than 300 years, so why can't we
have it with Ukraine as well?"
The most important question may end up being how effective the Kremlin's
activities have been. Yanukovich was unable to secure a first-round victory
and Sergei Bagapsh was declared the winner of the still-contested vote in
Abkhazia in October over the prime minister of the republic, Raul
Khadzhimba, who held a highly publicized meeting with Putin days before
the election. Acting Abkhazian president Vladislav Ardzinba declared the
vote invalid and scheduled a new vote for December, but negotiations
between the two sides continue in a confrontation that threatened to boil
over as Bagapsh's supporters seized government buildings in the republic
as Russia Profile was going to press.
It should not come as a surprise that one of the biggest carrots being
dangled in front of Ukrainian voters is money. The United States provides
about $30 million per year for programs to support democracy in Ukraine
and has made no secret that Yushchenko is its preferred candidate. For its
part, Russia said on the eve of the election that all value added tax
payments on Russian oil and gas supplied to Ukraine would go to the
Ukrainian budget, which means about $800 million per year, and promised
preferred treatment of Ukrainian goods sold to the Russian market. For
example, Russia is expected to buy the pipes for Gazprom's pipelines to
Western Europe from the Ukrainian plant in Khartsyzsk and not from
domestic producers. This move is supposed to boost the economy of
the eastern regions of Ukraine, seen as the domain of Yanukovich's
supporters.
The experts, however, point out that the conflict within the Ukrainian
elite is not that acute and that Kiev could be just playing Russia and the
West off against each other.
"The big winner is the Ukrainian political establishment," said Arkady
Moshes, an expert on Ukraine at the Finnish Institute of International
Affairs in Helsiniki. "It managed to get the best from both worlds."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: Russia Profile: http://www.russiaprofile.org
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.221: ARTICLE NUMBER THIRTEEN
Your financial support is needed, please send a check.
========================================================
13. "UKRAINE'S RUN-OFF--CHOOSE YOUR VICTOR"
Yanukovych is a thug. The story about his two
terms in jail for assault and battery are well known
OPINION: Contributed by Ben Aris, freelance journalist
Prime-Tass, Moscow, Russia, Wed, Nov.17, 2004
MOSCOW, Nov 17 (Prime-Tass) -- I vacillate between being optimistic
and pessimistic about Yushchenko's chances in this weekend's elections,
but on balance I think they look pretty good.
And this is despite the massive abuses in the first round by the incumbents
to try and get their man elected. In one case in the west of the country,
Ukraine's thugs attacked the polling station and the workers fled. As
official representatives did not record the result these ballots were not
counted. The point is that in the west, Yushchenko is winning regions by
80% and upwards. Tactics don't get more brutal or obvious than this.
Another subtler tactic -- it was impossible to buy train tickets for about
a week before the election. This is partly to stop Yushchenko's supporters
from descending on Kiev to protest and partly as Yanukovych supporters
were getting up early and voting, only to take a train to another region and
voting again, according to reports.
I flew to Lvov on Monday after the election and was told that I could buy a
ticket there but despite the plane back being nearly empty -- I had to come
back the same day -- I would have to present myself at the ticket office at
the other end (so they could have a look at me) before they would sell me a
ticket. Foreigners had no problems travelling around, but Ukrainians needed
to be members of the party.
Yanukovych is a thug. The story about his two terms in jail for assault and
battery are well known but the local independent press had a lot of fun
with his presidential candidate's application form: it was one page of A4
and not only did Yanukovych get caught lying about his academic
qualifications but he made 13 spelling mistakes (it has to be filled out in
Ukrainian and he doesn't speak it very well) including misspelling
"professor". (Yushchenko took a jab at Yanukovych in this weeks TV
presidential debates by bringing "professors" up.)
However, while it is safe to assume that Yushchenko won the first round
with a comfortable margin and that the establishment stole as many votes
as they could, the result was nonetheless a coup for the opposition, which
scored an important psychological victory by winning the vote -- even if it
was by a tiny margin.
The sentiment in Kiev is that the government was going for a 43%/39% split
in the first round in Yanukovych's favour. They had to concede Yushchenko's
real popularity but wanted the psychological advantage of a first-round
victory. Plus, although the absolute difference between these two numbers
is little, the 40-30 numbers follow the same psychology as the $9.99 price
tag.
But despite the establishment's best efforts (and they were considerable
given that they had the entire weight of administrative resources to throw
into this, plus Russia's extensive experience at managing elections), the
fact that Yushchenko still won is very encouraging.
The received wisdom is that despite the fraud -- OECD said fraud was
worse than last time round -- the government can realistically only hope
to steal 10-15% of the vote: Yushchenko won by so much that this was
not enough to put Yanukovych in the lead -- a disaster for Kuchma's lot.
However, the second round will still be tough. The opposition are planning
on carrying out a parallel vote count, which is almost impossible to do
effectively. They had 30,000 people in the stations in the first round and
plan to mobilize 100,000 on November 21. However, what they are
counting are the votes on the protocols from the regional counting stations,
not the votes themselves (only the Central Election Committee can count
these) and part of the problem is the company that won the tender to
drive the ballots to the regional centres counting stations is from Donetsk,
Yanukovych's home town. This company offered to do the job for half
of what the next nearest bidder offered. So if the ruling clan want they
can still fix the result.
Add to this Yushchenko's dithering. On the first round election night I
hung about Yushchenko's HQ with the rest of the press corps waiting for
a presser from Yushchenko at just after midnight when the first results
were supposed to come in. But cleverly the state started with the results of
hospitals, army and prisons first showing a 67%/18% divide and threw the
Yushchenko camp into panic. He finally showed up at 3 a.m. with a very
lame speech that he could have (and should have) given at 12:30 a.m.
before everyone switched off their TVs and went to bed.
The government was also clever in dragging out the count. The rules say
that it doesn't have to count the votes for 10 days and has another 3 days
to release the results. As it had only counted 20% by midnight on election
night Yushchenko was left in a nasty position -- call the vote a fix,
declare himself a winner and put the people on the streets, or wait. He
waited leaving his supporters around the country going to bed on Sunday
with the belief that he had been massively defeated and wasn't going to do
anything about it.
Also, the slow count plays to the government, as Yanukovych's people
are desperate to keep him off TV. Yanukovych sounds like a thug, often
dropping into "mat" or prison slang and has nothing to say other than
populist rhetoric. Yushchenko's people were confident their candidate
would blow the PM out of the water if allowed to go head to head in
a real debate.
As it turned out, Yushchenko disappointingly fluffed the debate. He didn't
look confident and referred to his notes throughout, letting Yanukovych off
the hook, who came out of the debate looking tough. For a second time
Yushchenko has failed to rise to the occasion. Maybe it is just because he
is sick (he looks awful) but if there was a time to rally your energies
then this was it.
The decision not to hit the streets on the 31st was probably wise. I was up
at the CEC central offices on Sunday night and counted 14 trucks full of
troops all wearing plastic riot armour -- at least 500 souls -- as well as
two APCs. And you can be sure there were more troops stationed nearby
to come in from the rear if fighting started.
It looks very much like there will be rioting on Nov 22. The question is
how bad and how long. I take encouragement from the fact that Yush-
chenko's support is so deep and widespread, as well as the fact that Kiev
is his town -- even the official count gave Yushchenko 65% of the capital.
Amongst my vox pops, I talked to a local judge who wouldn't give his name
(for obvious reasons) but said that he was sick of the corruption and would
vote for Yushchenko. This sentiment was repeated by nearly everyone I
talked to (admittedly in Kiev which is biased). The point is if it also
extends into the police and army, and if there is fighting, it could well
go the way of Russia in 1991 and 1993: if ordered to open fire on civilians
the police/army commanders' resolve may quickly crumble in the face of
the obvious venality of the order and swap sides.
Finally, the vote for Yushchenko has got a big fillip as the communists
have said they will vote for "none of the above" but Moroz, the leader of
the socialists, has thrown his people behind Yushchenko, which seems to
me to make Yushchenko' victory very likely in the actual vote. The bottom
line is that Ukraine is the only country in the CIS with a real and vocal
grassroots opposition movement and even if Yanukovych does carry off
the president's job and suppresses a revolt he will have a very hard time
maintaining his grip. The Kuchma administration has shown itself to be
exceptionally thick in handling domestic politics and relies on brute
force, but I don't think that this in itself is enough, as the Ukrainian
people won't stand for it, nor will they give up. -30-
------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: Prime-Tass: http://www.prime-tass.com
========================================================
ARTICLES ARE FOR PERSONAL AND ACADEMIC USE ONLY
Articles are Distributed For Information, Research, Education
Discussion and Personal Purposes Only
========================================================
Ukraine Information Website: http://www.ArtUkraine.com
========================================================
If you would like to read "THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"-04
please send your name, country of residence, and e-mail contact information
morganw@patriot.net. Additional names are welcome. If you do not wish to
read "THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"-04, around five times per week,
let us know by e-mail to morganw@patriot.net.
========================================================
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"-2004 SPONSORS:
"Working to Secure Ukraine's Future"
1. THE ACTION UKRAINE COALITION (AUC): Washington, D.C.,
http://www.artukraine.com/auc/index.htm; MEMBERS:
A. UKRAINIAN AMERICAN COORDINATING COUNCIL,
(UACC), Ihor Gawdiak, President, Washington, D.C., New York, NY
B. UKRAINIAN FEDERATION OF AMERICA (UFA),
Zenia Chernyk, Chairperson; Vera M. Andryczyk, President; E.
Morgan Williams, Executive Director, Huntingdon Valley, Pennsylvania.
http://www.artukraine.com/ufa/index.htm
C. U.S.-UKRAINE FOUNDATION (USUF), Nadia Komarnyckyj
McConnell, President, Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine .
2. UKRAINE-U.S. BUSINESS COUNCIL, Kempton Jenkins,
President, Washington, D.C.
3. KIEV-ATLANTIC GROUP, David and Tamara Sweere, Daniel
Sweere, Kyiv and Myronivka, Ukraine, 380 44 295 7275 in Kyiv.
4. BAHRIANY FOUNDATION, INC. Dr. Anatol Lysyj, Chairman,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA,
5. ODUM- Association of American Youth of Ukrainian Descent,
Minnesota Chapter, Natalia Yarr, Chairperson
========================================================
PUBLISHER AND EDITOR
Mr. E. Morgan Williams, Executive Director, Ukrainian Federation of America
(UFA); Coordinator, The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC);
Senior Advisor, Government Relations, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation (USUF);
Advisor, Ukraine-U.S. Business Council, Washington, D.C.;
Publisher and Editor, www.ArtUkraine.com Information Service (ARTUIS),
P.O. Box 2607, Washington, D.C. 20013,
Tel: 202 437 4707, E-mail: morganw@patriot.net
==========================================================