"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
NEWS ALERT
ABC TV--GOOD MORNING AMERICA
Kateryna Chumachenko Yushchenko will be interviewed on the
Good Morning America TV program this Friday morning from
Kyiv. Nadia Komarnyckyj McConnell, President of the
U.S.-Ukraine Foundation, will be interviewed on the same
program from Washington, D.C. .
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 255
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine, THURSDAY, December 9, 2004
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. SPETSNAZ DEPLOY IN UKRAINE
Russian Spetsnaz forces from the Vityaz special forces
Janes Intelligence Digest, UK, Friday, December 10, 2004
2. UKRAINE PROTESTERS HAIL POLL BREAKTHROUGH
Askold Krushelnycky in Kiev
The Independent, London, United Kingdom; Dec 09, 2004
3. YANUKOVICH IGNORES CALL TO QUIT UKRAINE RACE
By Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner in Kiev
Financial Times, London, UK, Thu, Dec 9 2004
4. MONITORS WARY OVER FAIRNESS OF UKRIANE POLL RERUN
By Tom Warner and Stefan Wagstyl
Financial Times, London, UK, Thu, Dec 9 2004
5. "ODE TO KYIV"
LETTER TO THE EDITOR, The Action Ukraine Report
>From Vicki G. Nelson, Cle Elum, Washington state
Thursday, December 9, 2004
6. US PRESIDENT THANKS LITHUANIAN, POLISH LEADERS
FOR EFFORTS IN UKRAINE
Lithuanian Radio, Vilnius, in Lithuanian 1700 gmt 9 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English Thu, Dec 9, 04
7. ZANY CLAIMS OF DRUGGED ORANGES KEEP KIEV SMILING
Irish Times, Ireland, Thursday, Dec 09, 2004
8. GERMAN PAPER HAILS UKRAINE'S PROTESTERS SUCCESS
COMMENTARY: Die Welt, Berlin, in German 9 Dec 04 p 1
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Thu, Dec 09, 2004
9. "UKRAINE COMPROMISE"
EDITORIAL: Irish Times, Ireland, Dec 09, 2004
10. THE ORTHODOX CHURCH AND DEMOCRACY
ARE THE TWO COMPATIBLE?
By Nikolas Gvosdev, Russia Profile, Moscow, Russia, Dec 9, 2004
11. THE ETERNAL SUSPICIONS OF THE SOVIET MIND-SET
EDITORIAL OBSERVER: By Serge Schmemann, Moscow
New York Times, New York, NY, December 9,2004
12. UNDERESTIMATING THE WILL OF THE NATIONS:
The West Makes the Same Mistake with Ukraine
as It Once Did with the Soviet Union
COMMENTARY: By Marcin Bosacki, Gazeta Wyborcza
Polish News Bulletin, Warsaw, Poland, Thu, Dec 09, 2004
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 255: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
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1. SPETSNAZ DEPLOY IN UKRAINE
Russian Spetsnaz forces from the Vityaz special forces
Janes Intelligence Digest, UK, Friday, December 10, 2004
Following recent JID revelations concerning Moscow's involvement in the
election crisis in Ukraine, intelligence is emerging that confirms in detail
the deployment of Russian Spetsnaz special forces (see JID 3 December
2004). Our Ukraine correspondent reports.
Up to 500 members of Russian Spetsnaz forces from the Vityaz special forces
division in Bryansk are currently deployed at a Ukrainian Interior Ministry
(MVS) military base in Irpin, near Kiev. Two transports flew them into the
Gostomel aerodrome near Irpin between 1 and 3 am on 24 November, three
days after the hotly disputed second round of the presidential election on
21 November. A third transport flew into the military aerodrome near
Vasylkiv, Kiev on 24 November.
Although some reports suggested that outgoing President Leonid Kuchma
had requested Russian support to quell popular unrest following accusations
of election fraud, JID's Ukrainian sources stress that the use of Russian
troops against civilians was never likely to form part of the government's
strategy. In fact, divided loyalties within Ukraine's security forces
surfaced after the second round of the elections.
Members of Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) have long been working
secretly with supporters of opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. Between
the first and second rounds of the poll, the SBU illicitly taped mobile
telephone conversations between key figures surrounding Prime Minister
Viktor Yanukovych. Recordings were passed to Yushchenko following the
second round of voting and have been submitted as evidence to the Supreme
Court, which was investigating election fraud.
Ukraine's military is also predominantly pro-Yushchenko. Many officers
adopted a pro-Western position as a result of Ukraine's involvement in
NATO's Partnership for Peace programme during the last decade. Four days
after the second round of the election, the former SBU chairman and Defence
Minister Yevhen Marchuk defected to the Yushchenko camp. Given serious
questions about the loyalty of the armed forces, it would prove difficult -
if not impossible - for Kuchma to declare a state of emergency. In any case,
such a step requires parliamentary approval which will not be forthcoming.
However, the position of the Interior Ministry (MVS) is very different. The
MVS has taken up many of the functions of the Soviet-era KGB and has
been active against the opposition. Nevertheless, during the recent
demonstrations, the MVS ranks split. Police and cadets defected to the
Yushchenko camp while most special forces units and MVS internal troops
have remained loyal to Kuchma. Only in western Ukraine did the MVS
Spetsnaz units declare their loyalty to Yushchenko.
Meanwhile, Interior Ministry riot control police (Berkut) have continued to
guard the presidential administration against attempts by crowds loyal to
Yushchenko to storm the building. Plans to occupy the presidential
headquarters immediately after the second round of voting were rejected in
favour of a blockade. Protesters would first have had to break through the
unarmed 'Berkut' ranks and then through a line of armed presidential guards
who had received orders to shoot.
The deployment of the Russian Spetsnaz in Ukraine has two main objectives.
The FIRST is to evacuate Kuchma and his immediate family if the 'Orange
revolution' turns violent. Twenty of the 500 Russian Spetsnaz form Kuchma's
personal bodyguard, a sign that he no longer trusts Ukrainian forces.
The SECOND task entrusted to the Russian Spetsnaz is to remove secret
documents from the presidential headquarters. However, Yushchenko's
supporters have already intercepted some papers that the authorities have
attempted to smuggle from rear entrances of the presidential headquarters.
The two groups of Russian Spetsnaz that flew into Irpin and Vasylkiv
included two personal bodyguard details for Kuchma and the head of
the presidential administration Viktor Medvedchuk. A further detail is
responsible for conveying potentially incriminating documents to Russia.
These three units, each with 20 members, are deployed in Kiev.
The bulk of the remainder of the Spetsnaz are being kept in reserve in
Irpin, outside Kiev, to secure the route for an emergency evacuation of
Kuchma, Medvedchuk and their families should the conflict escalate. In
such an eventuality helicopters would be sent from Irpin with additional
Russian forces.
Predictably, the SBU has stated that there are no foreign Spetsnaz troops
deployed in Ukraine. The Russian Interior Ministry has also denied the
reports. However, evidence of the Spetsnaz presence was provided by a
military officer loyal to Yushchenko, the deputy commander of the air
force brigade stationed at Kiev's airport. He reported that the Russians
are disguised in Ukrainian police uniforms.
The current deployment of Russian special forces on Ukrainian soil has
no legal basis. No agreement between Ukraine and Russia permits the
Ukrainian president to invite foreign troops into the country without
parliament's approval.
In fact, the intervention reveals the degree to which the Kremlin has
become inextricably involved in the Ukrainian presidential elections.
Russian /'political technologists' and an alleged $300 million in financial
subsidies have played key roles in Yanukovych's campaign. Ukrainians
living in Russia were also transported home in order to vote.
Putin himself made two highly publicised visits to Ukraine to endorse
Yanukovych on the eves of rounds one and two of the election. The
Russian president was quick to congratulate Yanukovych on his 'victory'
two days before the Central Election Commission announced the official
results - which have since been overturned by Ukraine's Supreme Court.
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.255: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
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2. UKRAINE PROTESTERS HAIL POLL BREAKTHROUGH
Askold Krushelnycky in Kiev
The Independent, London, United Kingdom; Dec 09, 2004
KIEV - THOUSANDS OF haggard, shivering and determined opposition
protesters danced and sang in triumph yesterday after Ukraine's parliament
approved amendments to ensure a fair ballot in the presidential rerun later
this month. The breakthrough came after weeks of political turmoil in the
country that brought it to the brink of ethnic conflict.
Ukraine's opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, urged tens of thousands
of supporters to leave the barricades and work for victory in this month's
rerun of a rigged presidential election. He said that the opposition had won
what it had demanded.
"We have a few days left until final victory. I call on you to be extra
active in the days to come," he said. "Everyone should know his role,
everyone should take part in the event we know as the 26 December
re-election." After days of meetings with the opposition that brought the
capital, Kiev, and other cities to a standstill for more than a fortnight,
the parliament agreed to measures which the pro-Western opposition
believes will help their candidate win.
New changes on electoral rules are designed to eliminate scope for the
massive election fraud that triggered the demonstrations. The opposition,
backed by Western election monitors, said that the government had used
ballot-stuffing, falsification, intimidation and bribery to skew the results
in favour of their candidate, the pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor
Yanukovych, in the election on 21 November.
Mr Yushchenko declared that events in parliament were a victory for the
opposition. He thanked people for braving threats by the government and for
transforming Ukraine into a real democracy, saying its rightful home was in
in Western Europe. "When it was cold, when it snowed, when there was rain,
you remained here," he said. "You have ensured we will not be ruled by
bandits anymore where gangster rules operated. "You demonstrated a
confidence in what you were doing and have given the opportunity for tens
of millions of other Ukrainians to see that another kind of Ukraine was
possible.
During the demonstrations, in which where the presidential administration
and other government buildings were surrounded by Yushchenko supporters
sporting flags, ribbons and clothes in the orange colour of his election
campaign, there were several days when it looked likely that the government
would launch an attack using thousands of paramilitary police troops.
However, many police and army officers said that they would not attack the
demonstrators and some appeared publicly alongside Mr Yushchenko. The
Yushchenko loyalists warned that they would protect the opposition
supporters against any attack. Referring to them, Mr Yushchenko said: "I
thank the people in uniform that proved that when there was a test before
them they showed they were with the people."
One of the methods used to fraudulently hand Mr Yanukovych several million
votes was abuse of an absentee voting system that allowed his supporters to
vote multiple times at different polling stations. The number of absentee
votes for the re-run election on 26 December has been cut from 4 per cent
to 0.5 per cent.
Other measures that have been agreed include a new composition of the
central election commission, the body that was perceived as aiding the
electoral fraud, and the sacking of the general prosecutor, who was
condemned by the opposition for corruption and took no action to
investigate complaints about breaches of electoral law. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.255: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
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3. YANUKOVICH IGNORES CALL TO QUIT UKRAINE RACE
By Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner in Kiev
Financial Times, London, UK, Thu, Dec 9 2004
KIEV - Viktor Yanukovich, the Ukrainian prime minister, has ignored the
advice of President Leonid Kuchma to pull out of the country's disputed
presidential election. Instead, he has come out fighting. Mr Yanukovich has
stolen a march on Viktor Yushchenko, the opposition leader, and hit the
campaign trail early in his effort to win the rerun of the election to be
held on December 26.
On Thursday the 54-year-old prime minister was touring his political
heartland in the eastern coal-and-steel region of Donetsk, where he once
worked as a coal transport manager. There, he received a grim reminder of
the reality of Donetsk life with news that a mining accident had killed one
man and injured about 30 others, whom he visited in hospital.
On the campaign trail, Mr Yanukovich is reiterating that he is out to prove
he was the legitimate victor of last month's election by winning again this
month.
According to opinion polls, he stands little chance. Last time he won by
about 600,000 votes. But Mr Yushchenko claimed the prime minister benefited
from about 3m fraudulent votes. Even if this figure is exaggerated, he is
likely to have lost support since the Supreme Court ruled against him.
But the presidency is not Mr Yanukovich's real target. His aim is to
position himself as the main opposition leader to a Yushchenko presidency
before the next parliamentary elections in 2006. These will be particularly
important as, following this week's constitutional reforms, power will be
transferred from the president to parliament.
Mr Yanukovich starts out as the undisputed champion of the wealthy and
populous Donetsk region, where he used to be governor and where he enjoys
the backing of Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest business oligarch. Even as
most other television channels have switched from pro-Yanukovich to balanced
reporting, Mr Akhmetov's television channel remains resolutely behind the
prime minister.
Mr Yanukovich has genuine appeal in Donetsk and neighbouring Luhansk, where
most people speak Russian. In the past few days, Mr Yanukovich has stopped
speaking Ukrainian in public and reverted to Russian.
The prime minister has distanced himself from calls for separatism. But he
has echoed claims that too much power is concentrated in Kiev. "You can't
decide in Kiev where to build roads and houses. That should be decided in
the regions," Mr Yanukovich said yesterday. Given that Ukraine is heavily
centralised, this is a message that could find wider support.
In last month's poll, Mr Yanukovich scored more than 90 per cent in Donetsk
and Luhansk. He also led the voting, by lesser margins, in other eastern and
southern regions. The barometer of his success in the rerun will be whether
he can hang on to that broader support. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 255: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
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4. MONITORS WARY OVER FAIRNESS OF UKRIANE POLL RERUN
By Tom Warner and Stefan Wagstyl
Financial Times, London, UK, Thu, Dec 9 2004
The body providing independent monitors for the rerun of Ukraine's
presidential election warned on Thursday that the poll would only be free
if the authorities played fair. Speaking just 24 hours after Ukraine's
parliament voted through a package of reforms designed to curtail the
widespread fraud that marred the original poll last month, the Organisation
for Security and Co-operation in Europe admitted that the fairness of the
December 26 rerun was still not guaranteed.
The organisation, which provided 600 observers for the original poll on
November 21 and hopes to increase that to 900 for the December 26 rerun,
broadly welcomed the package of electoral reforms. But Urdur Gunnarsdottir,
its spokeswoman, cautioned: "It's not only about legislation. It's about
political will."
Viktor Yanukovich, the prime minister and the candidate backed by President
Leonid Kuchma, was officially declared the winner of the original poll. But
Viktor Yushchenko, the opposition leader, successfully appealed to the
Supreme Court, which found extensive evidence of cheating, cancelled the
poll and ordered a rerun.
The Yushchenko camp claimed there were as many as 3m fraudulent votes.
Parliament has closed loopholes allowing ballot-stuffing, especially the use
of absentee ballots. People voting away from their home polling stations
will now have their passports stamped to prevent multiple voting. Voting at
home, which is difficult for observers to track, will be limited to the sick
and disabled.
Members of parliament also voted to overhaul the Central Election
Commission, which attracted court challenges and demonstrations during the
presidential campaign. They voted to replace four of the 15 commission
members, including Sergey Kivalov, the discredited chairman. His place has
been taken by Yaroslav Davidovich, a Yushchenko nominee.
In the first round 12 minor candidates gave their right to nominate com-
mission members to Mr Yanukovich, giving him control of the system. In the
rerun, commission members will be nominated by Mr Yushchenko and Mr
Yanukovich equally. The 225 district and 33,000 local commissions, which
supervise the vote, are also being reconstituted.
Mr Yushchenko's supporters also draw comfort from the fact that Mr
Yanukovich's and Mr Kuchma's influence over the administration is waning.
Their ability to exert pressure on officials, either through bribes or
threats, is expected to decline. At least some officials will take account
of the fact that Mr Yushchenko is favourite to win and will be reluctant to
work for Mr Yanukovich for fear of retribution from a Yushchenko
administration.
The powerful social movement unleashed by last month's disputed election
also increases the prospects of a fair poll. Journalists, who resented
slavish pro-government reporting, have persuaded employers to allow
objective coverage.
However, these influences favouring free elections will vary across Ukraine.
In the west and centre, where Mr Yushchenko is popular, officials are
generally expected to work for fair results. In the eastern Donbass region,
Mr Yanukovich's political heartland, officials could face pressure to
influence voting in his favour. In other eastern and southern regions, much
will depend on local officials and business leaders.
The OSCE admits the December 26 date could make it difficult to achieve its
aim of 900 observers. However, the poll may attract many non-OSCE volunteer
observers, especially people from Poland and other former Communist states,
who feel inspired by events in Ukraine. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.255: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
Please send us names for the free distribution list
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5. "ODE TO KYIV"
LETTER TO THE EDITOR, The Action Ukraine Report
>From Vicki G. Nelson, Cle Elum, Washington state
Thursday, December 9, 2004
I am sending you a poem I wrote. And I just want to say that we read
all your reports and they are so insightful and helpful in understanding
what is going on. Your work is of great value. Just to show you how
some of us who care feel.
"ODE TO KYIV"
by Vicki G. Nelson
In memory’s eye, I view again Kyiv
—city rich in color, history, and beauty
—streets filled with laughter, music, and people
—hearts full of pride, hope, and dreams.
I’ve come to love this grand city
—city of domed cathedrals and monuments
—streets lined with small stalls and eager venders
—Khreschatyk Street’s carefree weekend celebrations.
I hear again the sounds of great Kyiv
—the whoosh of metro trains leaving busy stations
—voices raised with rapid speech and firm convictions
—honking horns, rumbling engines, often quiet nights.
I see the children, those loved and those abandoned
—faces telling stories without words
—happy faces reflecting loving homes and families
—sad, expressionless countenances telling other tales.
I feel the spirit of this city’s people
—people who have lived with good and evil
—dancing and enjoying life despite hard times
—always willing to extend a hand of friendship.
My heart sings in delight as I think of this city, this country-Ukraine.
In reality’s eye, tonight the world views Kyiv
—city rich in color, mostly orange, hints of blue
—streets filled with shouts, protests, and people
—hearts full of pride, fear, and contested dreams.
I no longer know this tumultuous city
—city of mass protests and waving banners
—streets lined with tents and iron clad policemen
—Khreschatyk Street turbulent with daily demonstrations.
I hear the sounds of mighty Kiev
—the clamor of multitudes calling for truth
—voices raised in forthright speech and firm convictions
—beating drums, stamping feet, no longer quiet nights.
But I can’t see the children, those loved or those abandoned
—their faces, if seen, would tell wordless tales
—worried faces reflecting confusion and fear
—distraught eyes full of questions and concerns.
And I feel the spirit of this city’s people
—people accustomed to living with good and evil
—dancing with flags and standing for right
—needing our extended hands of friendship.
My heart cries out in despair as I think of this city, this country-Ukraine.
In future’s eye, I view a new Kyiv
—city rich in color, history and beauty
—streets filled with laughter, music and people
—hearts full of pride, hope, and dreams.
And I feel the spirit of this city's people
--people filled with hope as justice triumphs
--dancing with joy in freedom and liberty
--joining hands together with us in friendship.
My heart cries out in hope as I think of this city--Kyiv, this
country-Ukraine.
Blessings, Vicki Nelson
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Vicki G. Nelson from Cle Elum, Washington state, is Program
Co-coordinator and Treasurer for Smile Alliance International,
SmileAlliance@yahoo.com, website: http://www.SmileAlliance.org.
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.255: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
6. US PRESIDENT THANKS LITHUANIAN, POLISH LEADERS
FOR EFFORTS IN UKRAINE
Lithuanian Radio, Vilnius, in Lithuanian 1700 gmt 9 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English Thu, Dec 9, 04
VILNIUS - US President George Bush has thanked the Lithuanian and Polish
leaders, Valdas Adamkus and Aleksander Kwasniewski, for their mediation
aimed at resolving the political crisis in Ukraine. During a telephone
conference between the three leaders, George Bush told Valdas Adamkus that
this was an excellent example of international leadership.
In response to George Bush, Valdas Adamkus said that Lithuania could not
stand aside from this, and that the most important thing now was to hold a
democratic [presidential] election in Ukraine, which would meet
international standards. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.255: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
7. ZANY CLAIMS OF DRUGGED ORANGES KEEP KIEV SMILING
Irish Times, Ireland, Thursday, Dec 09, 2004
UKRAINE: If this really is the victorious end for Ukraine's Orange
Revolution I will miss it: not just for its non-violence and its energy but
for its zaniness, writes Chris Stephen in Kiev. And nothing was zanier than
claims by the prime minister's wife, about the drugged oranges supposedly
circulating among opposition demonstrators in downtown Kiev.
In a televised speech replayed endlessly on opposition TV channels, Ludmila
Yanokovich told an audience in eastern Ukraine, the government heartland,
that the protesters were bribed by America deploying two deadly weapons:
felt boots and drugged oranges.
"It's simply an orgy there," she said. "There's rows and rows of felt boots,
all of it American made. And mountains of oranges. Oranges! And look here,
guys, those oranges aren't just any oranges - they're loaded. People take an
orange, eat it. And the hand keeps reaching, keeps reaching for it and they
keep standing, keep standing. Eyes simply glazed over. Just like that." What
her husband thought about the speech is not recorded but the TV cameras
caught one of her officials, obviously unprepared for what came out of her
mouth, doubling over in laughter.
Her chances of becoming Ukraine's first lady appear remote, with opposition
challenger Victor Yushchenko a shoo-in for victory in the re-run election,
but Ludmila won a special place in the hearts of the Kiev demonstrators.
Yesterday the cardboard boxes where donations are given to feed the
demonstrators in Independence Square each had an orange taped to the top,
impaled by a syringe, showing that the sense of humour has endured nearly
three weeks of freezing protest.
Meanwhile, the colour orange has become big business among street traders,
with stalls scrambling to find stocks of orange scarves and bobble hats. Not
to be outdone, the Yushchenko party machine has opened an "official"
merchandising store, selling a range of bags, scarves, hats and arm bands
each with the official logo of Tak - it means Yes - stamped on it.
Not everyone is happy: for its last league game Shatkar Donetsk, the team of
the most pro-government city of them all, removed its orange strip, playing
in white instead, rather than appear to support the opposition.
Dynamo Kiev, who play in blue, the government's colours, made no such
changes for their recent game in the snow, but fans cheered the fact that
they only began scoring goals once the match ball was changed from white
to - what else - orange.
More seriously, while the drugged oranges may be a preposterous myth,
drugged dinner plates were yesterday reported to be true. Opposition leader
Victor Yushchenko has long claimed that a mystery illness that saw him
rushed to Austria in the summer for life-saving treatment was poison
administered by the government. Now a doctor at the Austrian clinic has
reportedly confirmed that the poisoning claim was true.
Yushchenko fell ill immediately after having dinner with the head of the
Ukraine secret service. His poisoning claims are apparently to be the
subject of a government investigation in the new year. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.255: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
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8. GERMAN PAPER HAILS UKRAINE'S PROTESTERS SUCCESS
COMMENTARY: Die Welt, Berlin, in German 9 Dec 04 p 1
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Thu, Dec 09, 2004
The last shall be first: the Ukrainians, for centuries a "belated nation" in
Europe, have astonished the world by demonstrating that the spirit of 1989
is still alive. For more than two weeks, in snow and cold, hundreds of
thousands of people demonstrated in the streets what free elections,
democracy, and rule-of law state mean to them.
The protests against the election fraud committed by the government camp
turned into a citizens' movement, the result of which many of its
participants described as follows: "Today we became a nation." With the
slogan "east and west together", the reformers opposed the attempts to set
the various parts of the country at each others' throats - obviously with
success.
Yesterday the parties to the controversy agreed on amendments to the
election law and to the constitution. The repetition of the election on 26
December under fair conditions is a success for the opposition.
Unfortunately, the opponents also threw a spanner into the works: the
weakening of the president's office will make the restructuring of the giant
country between the Don and the Danube rivers even more difficult. But at
least reformer candidate Viktor Yushchenko has scored a peaceful triumph.
The clear commitment of his citizens to European values poses new challenges
to the EU, which will hold a summit next week. And, finally, Ukraine might
become once again what it had long been since the Middle Ages: a showcase
of the West, of its values, and ideas, for the big neighbour in the north,
Russia. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.255: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
=========================================================
9. "UKRAINE COMPROMISE"
EDITORIAL Irish Times, Ireland, Dec 09, 2004
A creative compromise yesterday resolved the crisis in Ukraine, at least
for the short term. This is a major achievement and a welcome one, which
should give its people breathing space to rerun the presidential election on
December 26th.
The constitutional package affirms the country's political and territorial
integrity - if it is faithfully implemented by the leadership emerging from
the new vote, following the extraordinary mass mobilisations since the
disputed election on November 21st.
The agreement marks a transition from a presidential system to a
parliamentary one in Ukraine. It signals changes in regional autonomy,
perhaps in a federal direction. And it substantially alters the electoral
laws and replaces the central electoral commission. It is a compromise
between the three major figures involved in this drama and the political
forces they represent.
The outgoing President Leonid Kuchma saw it in his interest to transform the
strong presidential system in return for major concessions on the electoral
laws. The resulting compromise has been denounced by the more radical
supporters of the opposition leader Mr Viktor Yushchenko, because it will
weaken his powers if, as widely expected, he wins the rerun ballot. The
parliament will now nominate all members of the government, with the
president keeping the right to reject the prime minister, foreign and
defence ministers. It remains to be seen whether the victorious president
will command a parliamentary majority, or effectively share power with those
opposed to him.
Ukraine is a complex society with overlapping affinities towards both
western Europe and European Russia. Given this complexity of belonging and
identity, much of the talk about the possibility of it disintegrating has
been improbable or mistaken - but only so long as its political conflict
remains peaceful. Any outbreak of violence would have been disastrous over
the last three weeks and would have incalculable consequences if threatened
again. The agreement promises to contain such a danger by holding out the
prospect of regional autonomy within Ukraine for the richly resourced
south-eastern parts of the country which supported Mr Viktor Yanukovich.
Voters there will expect to hold on to the pensions and educational benefits
he delivered to them.
This agreement also reflects the mediation efforts of the European Union and
United States, which have welcomed it, and of Russian leaders, who are far
more grudging about it. Their involvement has been constructive in spite of
the evident tensions between them. Hopefully it will remain so. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 255: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
Names for the distribution list always welcome
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10. THE ORTHODOX CHURCH AND DEMOCRACY
ARE THE TWO COMPATIBLE?
By Nikolas Gvosdev, Russia Profile, Moscow, Russia, Dec 9, 2004
Nikolas K. Gvosdev is executive editor of The National Interest.
He contributed this comment to Russia Profile.
Democratic institutions cannot take root in a society that views democratic
values as antithetical to the national culture. This means that the
attitude of the Russian Orthodox Church toward democracy matters a
great deal. Even though only a small percentage of Russians are active
churchgoers, the Church is by far the largest actor in civil society,
possessing a nationwide network of parish communities, educational
institutions and media outlets. And since up to 70 percent of Russian
citizens define themselves as Orthodox, Orthodoxy is often used as a
litmus test for determining whether something is "authentically" Russian.
After the collapse of communism, most observers predicted that the Church
would actively lobby for the restoration of the monarchy or would insist
upon an authoritarian government. Instead, the Church - in its official
statements - has endorsed as legitimate a political system that encompasses
some degree of pluralism and democracy, drawing in part on Russia's
historical experience with the medieval city-state republics of the North,
such as Novgorod, Pskov and Vyatka.
The "Basics of the Social Conception of the Russian Orthodox Church,"
adopted at the Council of Bishops in 2000, declares that the Church "does
not give preference to any social system or to any of the existing
political doctrines" and that the "emergence of the temporal state" was
allowed by God to give "human beings the opportunity to order their social
life according to their own free will." The Church acknowledged the reality
of political pluralism and declared that its clergy and laity were free to
hold their own "political convictions" except for those that contradict
"the faith and moral norms of the Church's Tradition."
The contemporary Church is prepared to acknowledge the sovereignty of
the people as a collective Caesar, just as in the past it hailed the
emperors as "God's anointed." In his appeal to the faithful during the 2000
presidential elections, Patriarch Alexy II declared that "all citizens,
especially the Orthodox, are called upon to assume responsibility for...
the country and the people, for their present and their future... The Lord
has placed their fate in the hands of the people, who are endowed with a
freedom that resembles God's." He reiterated this theme in his pastoral
statement, encouraging all Russians to vote: "We are choosing the head of
state who will take Russia into the 21st century and the third
millennium... This is why it is so important that each of us today make a
choice, which no one else can make for us. For the destiny of the country
and people will be decided today." He stressed these themes again during
the March 2004 presidential elections, declaring, "Every citizen, believer
and nonbeliever, young and old, should take part in the voting. Everyone
should make their will be known and vote for the candidate who, in their
opinion, is worthy of standing at the head of Russia for the next four
years."
But is the Church prepared to act as an incubator for democratic values and
practices? One reason for the vibrancy of democracy in Cyprus - another
traditionally Orthodox country - is that the Cypriot Church is run on very
democratic lines, both at the diocesan and parish levels. Elected parish
councils oversee the funds and activities of the local community, and the
primate and bishops are directly elected by the faithful using a form of
universal suffrage.
At its Great Council in 1917-1918, the Russian Church adopted a number of
reforms, including procedures for the election of bishops, the convocation
of regular church councils and the establishment of parish councils elected
by the faithful. These reforms were designed to shake off the controls the
imperial government had imposed on the Church, and were based in part on
the Church's own historic traditions. For example, the archbishop of
Novgorod had been elected in medieval times, and most village communities
had an elected parish council to oversee church affairs. But many of these
reforms were stymied by the Soviet government, which feared the development
of alternative centers of authority. During the 1920s, parish councils
tended to be more representative than village soviets. The reforms were,
however, carried out in Russian Orthodox communities in Western Europe
and North America.
The implementation of these reforms continues to be delayed in the
post-Soviet environment. The retention of an overly centralized, top-down
system of church administration impedes the emergence of vibrant, dynamic
local communities (although of course, in the Russian Church, as in the
Russian state, conditions vary from region to region).
This will be the fundamental test. The Church hierarchy can release
statements endorsing democracy, but these will be largely meaningless if
the Church as an organization remains mired in the Soviet past. The
strength of Russian democracy will rest on whether or not parish
communities engage their members, encourage their active participation and
facilitate autonomous activities such as Sunday schools, charitable
outreach programs and youth associations. These are the skills and habits
that produce the social capital upon which any democratic state rests.
Orthodoxy provides for such a blueprint. But it remains to be seen whether
or not the Church wants to build a new architecture for church governance
and administration. -30- (Link: www.russiaprofile.org)
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 255: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
11. THE ETERNAL SUSPICIONS OF THE SOVIET MIND-SET
EDITORIAL OBSERVER: By Serge Schmemann, Moscow
New York Times, New York, NY, December 9,2004
Trying to decipher what on earth Vladimir Putin is doing in Ukraine is
keeping Moscow's embattled liberals very busy these days. Why would a
president who worked so hard on his standing in the West squander what's
left on a confrontation in which he has nothing to gain?
Some say he has fallen under the sway of anti-Western fellow alumni of the
K.G.B., who dominate his entourage. Others say that for all his Western
manners, he fully shares the venerable Russian perception of Ukraine as an
extension of Russia. Still others say he really believes that the West is
orchestrating Viktor Yushchenko's rise as part of a continuing yearning to
encircle Russia.
Most likely, there's something to these conjectures. Many of the men and
women who wield power in Russia - especially former K.G.B. operatives like
Mr. Putin - have inherited a Soviet mentality that considers politics to be
a naked struggle for power. The notion that Ukrainians might actually want a
say in who rules them would not dawn on this group; it presumes that no
Ukrainians would be so insubordinate unless anti-Soviet (make that
anti-Russian) forces were behind them.
These instincts could clearly be seen through the lines in an interview Mr.
Putin gave the other day. "I don't want there to be a division, as there was
in Germany, between westerners and easterners, people of a first and
second category," he said. "People of the first category are allowed to live
according to stable democratic laws, while people of a, let us say, dark
political color of skin will be instructed by a strict man in a colonial
helmet on the political understandings by which they must live. And if the
natives resist, they'll be punished with a bomb-and-rocket club, as they
were in Belgrade."
The notion that people from the East are patronized as a lower order by the
West is a powerful source of resentment in Russia. It is the major reason Mr
. Putin and the Parliament have felt compelled to "protect" Russian enclaves
in Moldova, Georgia and now Ukraine.
There is plenty to feed that perception. All the debates around the
expansions of NATO and the European Union, or around American bases
in Central Asia or the "rose revolution" in Georgia, are full of talk about
constraining Russia's imperial ambitions, or weaning former Soviet republics
and satellites from the Kremlin. The United States has campaigned for oil
pipelines that skirt Russia. New European Union members talk of making
Ukraine a buffer between them and Russia.
Russians have historically felt proprietary about Ukraine. Though the
agrarian west is ardently nationalist, predominantly Catholic and
anti-Russian, the industrial south and east are predominantly oriented
toward Russia in speech and religion. The eastern Ukraine of Soviet days
was largely indistinguishable from Russia. Many Soviet leaders - Leonid
Brezhnev, for example - came from Ukraine.
Yet those points cannot fully explain why Mr. Putin has treated the
Ukrainian election as if it were a last stand against a Western invasion.
Under any president, Ukraine will depend heavily on Russian energy and
Russian trade, while seeking trade and contact with Europe.
Mr. Yushchenko, the candidate of western Ukrainians, is himself from eastern
Ukraine and served as prime minister under the outgoing president, Leonid
Kuchma, who is supported by Mr. Putin. He is certainly no American stooge.
He opposes, for example, the use of Ukrainian troops in Iraq. As president,
he would probably make overtures to the east and to Moscow to avoid a
national split.
The real contest is not so much between East and West, but between a corrupt
regime supported by capitalist gangsters, as represented by Mr. Kuchma and
his candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, and a relatively fresher
and apparently more democratic opposition. That, we hope, is what drew so
many Ukrainians into the streets when the government blatantly stole the
election for Mr. Yanukovich.
The fear that the peaceful uprising may prove contagious may be another
reason the Kremlin is so keen to prevent a Yushchenko victory.
"Russian authorities are defending not only a bankrupt nomenklatura-oligarch
regime in Ukraine, but also themselves," said Grigory Yavlinsky, head of the
liberal Yabloko Party. Mr. Putin knows how that works: his predecessor,
Boris Yeltsin, engineered the dissolution of the Soviet Union in order to
oust Mikhail Gorbachev, then made sure to install Mr. Putin before bowing
out.
It did not work in Ukraine. Mr. Putin's crude pressure probably served only
to raise Mr. Yushchenko's profile. Mr. Kuchma has backed away from a
greater confrontation, and the Ukrainian Supreme Court, hardly a dissident
bunch, has given the protests the highest legitimacy.
If Mr. Yushchenko wins on the next ballot, Mr. Putin's main problem may
be to find a way to back off without losing too much face - unless he's
prepared to use force, and Mr. Putin has given no sign of that.
Helping Mr. Putin save face could be the next challenge for Mr. Yushchenko
and his followers, and for the West. Whatever they may think of the Russian
president's increasingly authoritarian ways, he remains enormously popular
and in no danger of being toppled by a rose revolution. Turning Ukraine's
elections into a humiliating defeat could push him, and his constituents,
further into a xenophobic funk. History suggests that would not be in
Ukraine's interests, nor in the West's. -30-
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 255: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
12. UNDERESTIMATING THE WILL OF THE NATIONS:
The West Makes the Same Mistake with Ukraine
as It Once Did with the Soviet Union
COMMENTARY: By Marcin Bosacki, Gazeta Wyborcza
Polish News Bulletin, Warsaw, Poland, Thu, Dec 09, 2004
Kiev, writes Marcin Bosacki in last week's Gazeta Wyborcza, is the world's
happiest city these days. Full of smiles, full of gestures of solidarity
with "our guys" and the "other guys." A city of mature and wise people.
One had the privilege of walking through that city for a couple of the
revolutionary days. One also read dozens of comments from West and East
describing that revolution. One read of a "threat to international
stability," of a "training ground of the fight between the US and Russia."
And one felt completely at loss. One was looking outside the window, to make
sure these people were writing about the city one was in.
And one had a sense of utter absurdity when one realised what was missing
from all these comments. It was the most important thing - the people, the
millions of people on the streets of Kiev, Kharkov, Lviv.
And then one remembered the works of the sovietologists of the 80s. And the
attitude most western countries had towards the Soviet Union in those times.
Underestimating the will of the nations was the western sovietologists' main
mistake, the reason why they failed to foresee the rapid and largely
bloodless collapse of communism. The sovietologists focused on the number of
tank divisions, corn crops, the sequence of the handshakes on the tribune
during the May 1 demonstration, and the politburo fractions. They were
rarely interested in what the system's subjects wanted.
When, first in 1980 in Poland and then in the late 80s in virtually all of
the bloc's countries, the subjects massively entered the stage, they faced
the sovietologists and the recipients of their studies - the politicians -
with a problem. A new force emerged in communism's rough but familiar
landscape. It was then that the thesis was coined that what mattered the
most was stabilisation.
When one reads some of the comments on Ukraine today, that thesis is clearly
back. And with it another one: that the powers have permanent zones of
influence, whatever the nations involved may think about that.
Peter Unwin, in the 80s Britain's ambassador to communist Hungary, writes in
The Independent on November 28: "And we have to factor in other, more
old-fashioned considerations too - the need for stability in international
relations, for one, the stability that comes from respecting your opponent's
interests as well as your own." Then he warns what happens if the West
insists on an honest vote count in Ukraine: "Do we, for that matter, want an
EU facing an implacably hostile Russia, hostile to us because we have so
recklessly forced our way into Russia's back yard?"
The only thing that has changed since the 80s is that Mr. Unwin and other
realists like him no longer regard Hungary, Czech Republic, or Poland as
Russia's back yard (or do they?), only Ukraine. The back year has been
reduced by several countries. Apart from that, no change. The voice of the
back yard's inhabitants does not matter. Interesting whether Mr. Unwin would
see anything more if he came to Kiev. Whether he would see the most
important thing: that a great nation of 50 million people has woken up.
It is not foreign spies, not even the opposition politicians, but the people
who have decided that it's time to say "no" to the electoral falsifications,
to corruption, to lies in the TV. It is the people who have taken to the
streets in their millions.
And it is the people who are making this a self-containing, non-violent
revolution. It is the ordinary people, or, at best, the low-level opposition
activists, who have happened upon the idea of talking to the policemen and
giving them flowers. It is the Kiev women who have happened upon the idea
that the best way to neutralise the drunk miners sent in their thousands by
the Yanukovich campaign team to the capital is by giving them food and
drink. The Ukrainians, Mr. Unwin, do not know that they pose a "threat to
international stability." But they already feel they are making history.
Several days ago, a star anchor of the state TV spoke to the Kiev crowd,
explaining herself and her colleagues, and saying how delighted she was by
the atmosphere on the streets. "The Ukrainian people have shown they won't
be pushed by anyone," she said. The enthusiasm that followed showed that for
many Ukrainians it was really one of the first moments when they felt proud
of their nation. When the hundreds of thousands of people started chanting
"Ukraine, Ukraine," one really felt the shivers down one's spine.
You, Mr. Unwin, if you had been here and seen this, you would have probably
though: dangerous adventurism. We, who in the 80s several hundred kilometres
west from there were shouting "Poland, Poland!" know there is nothing bad in
it. We wish them the best.
We do not suffer from blindness. And we see that Central Europe is a better
and more stable part of the world when its nations can decide about
themselves. And we believe it will be the same with Ukraine. We know that
freedom and truth are not enemies of stability. To the contrary, it is the
regimes based on fear and rigged elections that are. - Janusz Onyszkiewicz
(UW) vice-president, European Parliament
The Ukrainian elections have united everyone in Poland. Almost everyone,
that is, because the LPR and the Self-Defence have clearly distanced
themselves away from the overwhelming, almost enthusiastic support for the
Ukrainian people's democratic revolution.
There are several reasons for that support. Firstly, a sense of the
historical ties between the two nations, and the memory of the Solidarity
revolution. Secondly, a sense that a democratic, stable, wealthy, and well
governed Ukraine is not only in our fundamental interest but also in the
interest of the whole Europe. Finally, a sense that if Russia manages to
restore its political domination and economic control of Ukraine, it will
fuel its nostalgia for its lost international significance and cause it to
return to imperialistic thinking.
Victor Yushchenko very clearly supports a European course and sets Nato and
EU membership as Ukraine's overriding priorities. That, of course, does not
mean severing the ties, including economic ones, with Russia. That would
actually be impossible. However, Yushchenko's policy will inevitably prevent
Ukraine from becoming too deeply involved in the structure, being promoted
by Russia, of economic integration that would also include Belarus and
Kazakhstan.
The creation by these countries of a free trade zone is not a problem for
anyone, as shown by the example of many countries, including Poland, that
joined the EU. But, one of Putin's close aides revealed in the European
Parliament, Russia's goal is to create a new version of the Common Market,
i.e. integrate the four countries so closely in economic terms that, for
instance, their EU accession would become utterly impossible.
As far as the second candidate, Victor Yanukovich, is concerned, it is clear
that he represents a completely different orientation. It is unlikely that
he would try to completely reverse the development of Ukraine's economic
cooperation with the EU. That would actually be suicidal as Ukraine's trade
with the EU is already twice as high as its trade with Russia, and growing.
But Yanukovich would certainly prefer to continue straddling the fence,
trying to achieve as much as possible economically, even at the cost of
political concessions to Russia.
He creates the impression of someone who would like to cast Ukraine in the
role of a beautiful and well-off maiden who can impose tough conditions on
her many suitors and pick and choose between them for as long as she wants.
Yet the EU, unlike the CIS or other organisations created by Russia, pulls
no one to the altar, and membership in the EU, like in the Nato, is
something you have to laboriously and determinedly strive for.
So both candidates declare cooperation with the EU, but while Yushchenko
wants full integration, Yanukovich wants to adapt Ukraine's economy to the
EU standards only inasmuch at is necessary. Given Ukraine's growing
integration with Russia, that would have to mean that both the pace and the
scope of the process would be dictated by Russia. Yushchenko's and
Yanukovich's paths towards Europe differ in that the former would like to go
all the way and as fast as possible, while the latter would like to go
through Moscow and only as far as it allows him.
But the issue is broader than that. The main point is the shape and quality
of the Ukrainian state. How faulty are its mechanisms is illustrated by the
recent election campaign, or the numerous and well documented cases of the
government's anti-democratic and illegal practices. And yet Ukraine has
agreed in numerous international documents, such as the Ukraine-Nato action
plan, to broaden democracy and observe the rule of law. Violating democratic
rules is also violating Ukraine's international obligations.
It won't be an exaggeration to say that Poland has in the recent period been
instrumental in making the "old" countries aware of Ukraine's significance.
It is gradually dawning on them that it is Europe's second largest country
by territory after Russia, and that the 50 million Ukrainians are a
completely different people than the Russians, with their own history going
back over a 1,000 years. What remains a problem is not only acknowledging
Ukraine's European ambitions but also admitting that there is a place for
Ukraine in the future EU, even if its membership is probably a relatively
distant prospect.
The EU appears frightened by its own boldness in admitting new members (this
year's enlargement, accepting the candidatures of Bulgaria, Romania, and
Croatia, and the prospect of membership for Turkey) to such a degree that it
does not even want to hear about new candidates. However, it seems that the
latest dramatic events have drawn so much attention to Ukraine that Poland's
efforts for the EU to give Ukraine a clearer perspective may finally yield
fruit.
That would define the path along which Ukraine could proceed. Let's hope
that it decides to enter it as soon as possible. Poland's role would be to
help it along this road because it would thus be helping both itself and
Europe. That will not be possible without finding a democratic solution to
the last elections which will to a large extent determine the future of the
Ukrainian democracy. These choices are therefore also our concern. -
Association for a Start
Instead of appealing to the EU to officially declare that it will eventually
admit Ukraine, Poland should be lobbying Brussels to offer Kiev an
association treaty as soon as it embarks on a programme of economic and
administration reforms. The nearest opportunity to do that will be the
upcoming Brussels summit on December 16-17, writes Brussels correspondent
Robert Soltyk in Gazeta Wyborcza.
"Poland's position has been responsible and European. Each country can add
value to the current situation," is how French foreign minister Michel
Barnier speaks of Aleksander Kwasniewski's mediation in Ukraine. But when
one asks in Paris about Ukraine in the EU, the favourable tone is
immediately gone, replaced by irritation. "Don't burn the bridges because
you'll destroy everything. And don't forget about Russia's sensitivity,"
they say in Paris.
It would be an over- simplification to say that Paris is wary of Ukraine
simply because the French love Russia. Europe, and thus France, has been
taken by surprise by the orange revolution, as it actually always the case
with revolutions. Moreover, the EU has its own problems: the 2007-2013
budget negotiations, the opening of accession talks with Turkey, the
ratification of the constitutional treaty. If these projects fail, the EU
will tumble into crisis, and further enlargement will be stricken off the
agenda. That is a lesson Poles should remember when they will go to vote in
the EU constitutional referendum.
"If the question of Turkey is connected with the constitution, we'll lose th
e French referendum, warns Barnier. In France, the eurosceptics have been
warning about the Turkish (read: Islamic) threat to weaken the EU. To
counter them, president Chirac has decided to make a risky move ? pledging a
referendum on Turkey's accession, probably some 10 years from now. To that
end, the French constitution will soon be amended to make any further
enlargement conditional on the French people's popular will expressed in a
referendum. That is to save the constitutional referendum, whose date is
likely to be set for June 2005.
Ukraine is something the French elites perceive as another potential hurdle
for the constitution: fears may arise that another poor and populous nation
will soon join the queue for EU membership. Besides, relations with Moscow
will be complicated ? even if no one intends to makes excessive concessions
to Putin this time.
Barnier regards the decision to repeat the second round of the Ukrainian
presidential elections as "rightful" and a "step in the right direction."
"The Ukrainians want their will to be respected," he says. The European
socialists are already appealing for a large mission of foreign observers to
be sent to Ukraine so that no one steals the elections on December 26. Bruce
George, the Briton who headed the OSCE in Kiev says the same. The EU and its
member states have to finance that army of observers.
And then? If democracy wins and Ukraine enters on a path of market reforms,
the EU should offer it its support. Just like in Poland in the 90s, it will
include training courses and scholarships for the Ukrainians, western
advice, investment loans on roads, IT, and so on.
For Poland, it is clear that market reforms and the opening of the Ukrainian
market will aid the success of democracy in Ukraine and thus also stability
in Europe. It will not cause a conflict with Russia, unless Russia itself
wants it. Others have to see it ? that's the role of an association treaty,
which is something of a waiting room on a country's road towards the EU.
After the 1989 changeover, Poland waited five years for association with the
EU, and 15 for membership. Ukraine, if it decides to do so, will go at its
own pace. Let's not try to artificially accelerate it. -30-
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