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Action Ukraine Report

"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary

"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"

"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 267
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net
Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine, MONDAY, December 20, 2004

WORLD SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT ON DECEMBER 26

"Today, events are unfolding rapidly. The world should be alert on December
26, when Ukraine re-runs its election, and in the years to follow as the
enemies of freedom will try to undermine Ukraine's progress just as they try
in my own country. Ultimately, I believe that revanchist attempts will fail.
Reforms can be expected throughout the whole post-Soviet region and they
will lead to completion of the third and final wave of the European
liberation." [Mikheil Saakashvili, President of Georgia, article number one]

"Today, from a corner of the world where I never thought I'd live, suburbs
of Connecticut, USA, I, an Iranian exile, with an ear fixed to the radio,
root for Ukraine, and hope that the glory of their revolution will not fade
in time but remain as it is today: orange and vibrant." [article number two]

-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"

NOTE: This is the 267th edition of The Action Ukraine Report for 2004.
This is a far larger number than I had planned for 2004 but the amazing
tide of events during the past three months have left me no choice but to
publish just as often as possible. Over 3,200 articles have been sent to
you. I have spent two months in Ukraine this year including being in
Ukraine for round one and round two of the presidential election. The
Report has gone out regardless of where I am and what is going on and
will continue to do so, including when I return to Ukraine for the next
election. Thanks so much for your excellent support during 2004.
Sincerely, Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor

1. EUROPE'S THIRD WAVE OF LIBERATION
The world should be alert on December 26, when Ukraine re-runs
its election, and in the years to follow as the enemies of freedom
try to undermine Ukraine's progress
COMMENTARY: By Mikheil Saakashvili, President of Georgia
Financial Times, London, UK, Monday, December 20 2004

2 "REVOLUTION REDUX"
Watching the uprising in Kiev takes me back to Tehran
COMMENTARY: By Roya Hakakian
The Washington Post, Washington, D.C.
Monday, December 20, 2004; Page A23

3. YUSHCHENKO'S FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
Ukraine 's Opposition Leader Needs to Win Converts In
Russian-Speaking Regions
By Yaroslav Trofimov, Staff Reporter
The Wall Street Journal, New York, NY, Mon, Dec 20, 2004

4. FIERY OPPOSITION LEADER KEEPS THE HEAT
ON UKRAINE'S REGIME
Former millionaire businesswoman Tymoshenko has a talent for confrontation.
By David Holley, Times Staff Writer, Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles, California, Monday, December 20, 2004

5. STATEMENT BY CONGRESSMAN ROBERT E. ANDREWS
Office of U.S. Congressman Robert E. Andrews (D-NJ)
United States, House of Representatives
Washington, D.C., Friday, December 17, 2004

6. CEC HEAD DAVYDOVYCH: CEC TOUGHENS CONTROL
OVER ELECTORAL LISTS
IntelliNews-Ukraine Today, Kyiv, Ukraine, December 20, 2004

7. YUSHCHENKO AND YANUKOVYCH TO DEBATE ON
UT-1 AT 19:00 ON MONDAY, DECEMBER 20
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Mon, December 20, 2004

8. PUTIN- SCHROEDER TALKS EXPECTED FOCUS ON
BILATERAL ISSUES INCLUDING UKRAINE
AP, Hamburg, Germany, Monday, December 20, 2004 .

9. UKRAINE'S NEXT LEADER LIKELY TO GIVE MORE
POWER TO PROVINCES
By Jan Cienski and Tom Warner in Kiev
Financial Times, London, UK, Mon, December 20 2004

10. VETERAN TO RUN UKRAINE'S CENTRAL BANK
By Olena Horodetska, Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Friday, Dec 17, 2004

11. UKRAINE'S YUSHCHENKO NEEDS TO BALANCE RUSSIA, EU
ANALYSIS: By Ron Popeski, Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Dec 20, 2004

12. YUSHCHENKO VICTORY TO SPEED UP UKRAINE'S
DEMOCRATIZATION AND EUROPEANIZATION
By Taras Kuzio, Eurasia Daily Monitor
Volume 1, Issue 49, Jamestown Foundation
Washington, D.C., Friday, December 17

13. KIEV LOOKS TO BRUSSELS?
Analysis: By Peter Lavelle for UPI
United Press International, Moscow, Russia, Tue, Dec 14, 2004

14. "EAST VS. WEST ON THE PLAYING FIELD OF UKRAINE"
COMMENTARY: by Walter Prochorenko
The Action Ukraine Report, Wash, D.C., Mo, Dec 20, 2004

15. "RUSSIA WILL NOT LEAVE UKRAINE ALONE"
OP-ED By Bishop Paul Peter Jesep
The Action Ukraine Report, Washington, D.C.
Monday, December 20, 2004
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
========================================================
1. EUROPE'S THIRD WAVE OF LIBERATION
The world should be alert on December 26, when Ukraine re-runs
its election, and in the years to follow as the enemies of freedom
try to undermine Ukraine's progress

COMMENTARY: By Mikheil Saakashvili, President of Georgia
Financial Times, London, UK, Monday, December 20 2004

For those of us who remained behind the iron curtain during Europe's first
great wave of liberation after the demise of Nazi Germany, western European
states served as the standard bearers of freedom and liberty, generated by
the power and promise of democracy. Growing up, the only contact I had
with that distant world was by listening secretly to my shortwave radio.

I belong to the generation whose adulthood coincided with the second wave
of European liberation, with Solidarity's triumph in Poland, the Velvet
Revolution in Prague and the fall of the Berlin wall. I remember very well
the moment I heard on Radio Liberty that the Berlin wall had collapsed. I
had tears in my eyes. I was 22 at the time and knew instantly that nothing
would ever be the same again and that a new and better life was starting for
all of us.

As it turned out, the democratic wave of the early 1990s was limited to
eastern Europe and the Baltic states. Although Georgia fought alongside the
Balts for independence from Soviet rule, only the Baltic states succeeded in
freeing their societies. Freedom, combined with democracy, is what made
them successful.

Unfortunately, the other states of the former Soviet Union did not make it
and independence for these peoples became synonymous with authoritarianism,
kleptocracy and civil war. Instead of real democracy, these coun tries
experienced a distorted perversion where elections were held but the rulers
never changed, where wealth was intercepted by kleptocratic elites and where
average people felt their voice and interests mattered least of all. Power
in these regimes did not come from the people - it came at the expense of
people, and for many of us these regimes seemed eternal.

Then, late last year, the Georgian people rose up to challenge the
legitimacy of an authoritarian regime after my predecessor's government
stole the elections. In reaction to overwhelming fraud, we took to the
streets in weeks of non-violent protest. Our efforts forced Eduard
Shevardnadze, the president, to resign. Since then we have held three sets
of elections - presidential, parliamentary and regional, all acknowledged by
international observers as "free and fair", a first in the Commonwealth of
Independent States.

Following our peaceful revolution, many in the Russian media sought to
portray Georgia as a dangerous exception - as impulsive, unpredictable and
bound to fail. They explained our revolution away as a strange aberration
with roots in the extravagant, perhaps theatrical, nature of Georgian
society. Certainly, the detractors claimed, nothing like this could happen
in any other CIS country.

Then the Ukrainian presidential elections approached. My education began
in Ukraine and there I received my first college degree. Living in Kiev, I
learnt Ukrainian and fell in love with the people and I continue to care
deeply about what happens in Ukraine. In the months before the elections,
I spoke to many national leaders, including Leonid Kuchma, Ukraine's
president. I cautioned them that if democracy there was once again
defaced, developments similar to those in Georgia could unfold.

Some of my interlocutors openly doubted my concerns, citing the superior
state of the Ukrainian economy over Georgia's under Mr Shevardnadze, or
stronger Ukrainian government control of the media and law-enforcement
agencies. I disagreed. My message was simple: the struggle would be not
about the economy or the strength of government but rather about democracy
and the fundamental right of citizens freely to choose their future. No
matter how strong a grip one might have over the media, a blackout of the
truth was not possible.

Subsequent events in Ukraine validated my prognosis. The Ukrainian people
stood up peacefully to defend their right to democracy. Like many Georgians,
I admired their courage and was proud to see Georgian flags alongside
Ukrainian national flags in Kiev's Independence Square. I also enjoyed
hearing leaders of the "Orange Revolution" make frequent reference to the
Georgian example.

Yet, just as over Georgia, commentators in Russia and elsewhere have
started to cry conspiracy, suggesting that mysterious, even shadowy, forces
engineered events in both Georgia and Ukraine. As a leader of one of those
revolutions and a great fan of the other, I can say that those inventing
such theories do not understand the essentials of human nature. No money,
tricks or publicity can bring millions out into the streets. Nothing can
force the people to brave the cold and risk their lives other than their
ultimate instinct to be free.

The citizens of Georgia were not inspired to defend their future by
political consultants or other outside influences. Rather, our heroes are
people such as Vaclav Havel and Lech Walesa. We Georgians believe we are
Europeans because our values and culture are deeply European - so too are
those of Ukrainians and other post-Soviet citizens. There is no reason why
Poles, Germans and Estonians should be free while other Europeans are not.
The call initiated by Georgia's Rose Revolution and multiplied by Ukraine's
Orange Revolution will spread - as demonstrators chanted in Kiev, freedom
cannot be stopped.

Today, events are unfolding rapidly. The world should be alert on December
26, when Ukraine re-runs its election, and in the years to follow as the
enemies of freedom will try to undermine Ukraine's progress just as they try
in my own country. Ultimately, I believe that revanchist attempts will fail.
Reforms can be expected throughout the whole post-Soviet region and they
will lead to completion of the third and final wave of the European
liberation. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The writer is president of Georgia
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.267: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
========================================================
2. "REVOLUTION REDUX"
Watching the uprising in Kiev takes me back to Tehran

COMMENTARY: By Roya Hakakian
The Washington Post, Washington, D.C.
Monday, December 20, 2004; Page A23

Everyone is serenading Kiev these days. "Magical" and "most valorous" were
the words on the morning news. But in my mind, Kiev has never looked more
like Tehran -- my capital in 1978. Theirs is an orange revolution. But
though I still can't discern the shade of our revolution, the similarities
are striking.

Rock stars converged on Independence Square in Kiev. In my time it was
poetry, poetry, poetry. Revolutions are ignited by politics, but the fuel
that sustains their fire is hardly just that. All of Iran's literati and
artistic elite got together that year to stage "Ten Nights of Poetry" at
Tehran's Goethe Institute. It rained every night. But, what rain? Thousands
gathered to hear the flaming speeches of their beloved authors! Our
revolution, too, reached its climax in December. Yet we roamed the streets,
unfazed. (Never had the Celsius been so gravely insulted!) On milder days we
boasted that it was a sign that God was on our side.

We had no tent cities, but the streets were home. And by January 1979, the
revolution had transcended the headlines. It had become something visceral:
a paradoxical feeling of drowning in a sea of hundreds, yet never breathing
better. Caught in those tides, we became the heroes that the quotidian
nature of our days had never permitted us to be. With schools, offices and
factories shut down, life and time had come to a halt. Six a.m. was the same
as six p.m. Nowhere to be but here. Nothing to do but this. We stood idly
like the unemployed, though we'd never been so gainfully occupied. (Imagine
my quandary when I was asked, in a college interview after my arrival in the
United States, if I'd ever been a cheerleader in high school!) The rest of
the world had not vanished, but it had gone from being a place we previously
dreamed of discovering to a place that we now demanded discover our dream.

Nearly everything was more than met the eye. A tree was an observation post;
the stoops, the place for the ad hoc organizing committee to convene. Even
the garbage strewn on the sidewalks -- fliers, bandannas, a bloody sock, a
tire on fire -- were the venerable reminders of something grand in the
making. And the unknown person who raised his middle and index fingers in
the shape of a V was unknown no more.

All the lessons our parents and our civic and religious leaders had been
teaching us all our lives sank in overnight. Strangers on the streets seemed
familiar, like long-lost family members. The sick or the wounded never made
it to the stretchers. They levitated in the air, their bodies passing over
the crowds' hands. Drivers yielded to pedestrians. Children, watching the
screaming adults, stopped their petulance. Mothers distributed sweets among
passersby. Patrons in phone booths cut their conversations short to let
others make calls. Even love felt greater on the streets that year. There
was more to a kiss, to an embrace amid the throngs. The soldiers lurked
about us with apprehension. In Kiev, they send the most beautiful female
protesters to negotiate with them. We put carnations in the barrels of their
rifles. Despite the chaos, the value of aesthetics is never lost on
revolutionaries.

As vivid as these words are on my monitor, so are the details of those
memories in my mind. Everything but the color of our revolution. Perhaps
it's because history is black. It absorbs all shades into its oblivion, till
the victors paint it as they wish. We were the secular, urban youth who
wanted, as do our successors even today, a democratic future. We lost.
Our grief turned us against ourselves, even against our own memories.

Now we're remembered as the Don Quixotes who chased a sham. Once,
we'd been commended for our vision. Soon we were taunted for not having
recognized the "realities." (Warning: The popular wisdom that "The journey
is more important than the destination" does not apply to revolutions.) And
so our brilliant shade of 25 years ago now conjures only darkness. Today,
from a corner of the world where I never thought I'd live, suburbs of
Connecticut, USA, I, an Iranian exile, with an ear fixed to the radio, root
for Ukraine, and hope that the glory of their revolution will not fade in
time but remain as it is today: orange and vibrant. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
The writer is co-founder of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center
and the author of "Journey From the Land of No: A Girlhood Caught in
Revolutionary Iran."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A12532-2004Dec19.html
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.267: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
========================================================
3. YUSHCHENKO'S FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE
Ukraine 's Opposition Leader Needs to Win Converts In
Russian-Speaking Regions

By Yaroslav Trofimov, Staff Reporter
The Wall Street Journal, New York, NY, Mon, Dec 20, 2004

YALTA, Ukraine -- Pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko has
a comfortable lead in the opinion polls ahead of Ukraine 's presidential
election. But he still faces a formidable task even if he wins on Dec. 26:
reassuring the country's Russian speakers that he isn't as bad as they fear.

Confronting fervent anti-Yushchenko sentiment in Ukraine 's Russian-speaking
eastern and southern regions -- the base of support of his opponent,
Moscow-backed Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych -- has emerged as a
central goal of the Yushchenko campaign now that election-law changes have
substantially reduced the chance of fraud that marred the Nov. 21 vote,
since annulled by the nation's supreme court. If he fails to win at least
some support here, Mr. Yushchenko may face big obstacles governing a
bitterly divided country, including the prospect of a renewed separatist
movement.

Knowing that the key to success lies in the east, Mr. Yushchenko Friday
relaunched the campaign by visiting Harkiv, the biggest city of eastern
Ukraine -- the same day Mr. Yanukovych also arrived in town. Mr. Yushchenko
used the occasion to pledge during a visit to a Harkiv tank factory that he
won't make any moves to restrict the use of Russian language in Ukraine and
that he will seek good relations with Moscow.

Mr. Yanukovych had been crisscrossing eastern and southern Ukraine all last
week, painting himself as the leader of the real opposition and the only
true patriot determined to defend Ukraine from a specter of American
domination.

The difficulty of winning converts to Mr. Yushchenko's so-called orange
revolution is apparent in the Crimea peninsula city of Yalta, a balmy resort
long synonymous with Europe's Cold War divide, sealed at a 1945 conference
when U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Joseph Stalin agreed to Soviet
domination of eastern Europe. Crimea, which Soviet rulers transferred from
Russia to Ukraine in 1954, is the only Ukrainian region where ethnic
Russians make up a majority of the population -- and where many view a
likely Yushchenko victory as a sellout to the still-hated U.S.

At a recent rally on Yalta's beachfront promenade, pro-Yanukovych protester
Alla Danchenko shouted, "We want to live in friendship with Russia, and
America is paying Yushchenko to break us apart." While Mr. Yanukovych was
said to have beaten Mr. Yushchenko by three percentage points nationwide
last month, according to now-overturned results, he carried Crimea with 82%
of the vote, an edge that even local opposition leaders say was only
marginally inflated by falsification.

Mr. Yushchenko's supporters have reasons to be optimistic about the new
election. Opinion polls predict he is likely to beat Mr. Yanukovych by a
margin of between five and 10 percentage points. The opposition leader has
said that he aims to win at least 60% of the nationwide vote -- a landslide
that would render irrelevant the precinct-by-precinct legal challenges that
Mr. Yanukovych's campaign is preparing.

Ukraine 's Parliament has severely curtailed the two most widespread methods
of fraud: the use of absentee ballots and the voting at home, rather than at
a precinct. Local election commissions were revamped to provide equal
representation for both candidates, and the Central Election Commission
member who publicly opposed falsification in the Nov. 21 vote now supervises
the body. Also, national TV stations no longer slant their news coverage
against Mr. Yushchenko.

Still, in Mr. Yanukovych's strongholds, residents have been subjected for
months to a barrage of negative propaganda that distorted Mr. Yushchenko's
views. Just a few weeks ago, official newspapers in Crimea published what
they described as Mr. Yushchenko's electoral program -- topped by a pledge
to turn the country into an American military base. And almost every
household in Crimea has received a forged electoral leaflet in which Mr.
Yushchenko purportedly promised to expel all ethnic Russians from the
peninsula. "I will never get Russian votes, and Russians have no place in
our country," the leaflet says. Mr. Yanukovych, by contrast, pledged to make
Russian the second official language and to allow dual citizenship with
Russia.

To counter the anti-Yushchenko feeling, last week his campaign launched a
motor rally by pop stars and TV personalities who plan to travel across
eastern and southern Ukraine , and who reached Crimea during the weekend,
after an hours-long standoff with Mr. Yanukovych's supporters who blocked
the highway into the peninsula. Mr. Yushchenko recorded some of his latest
campaign commercials in Russian.

And in Yalta, Mr. Yushchenko's local campaign chief, Oleg Zubkov, is trying
an unorthodox approach. He has turned the local zoo that he owns into a
center of the outreach effort, bedecking the cages with orange ribbons,
allowing free entry and distributing campaign literature between stunts with
lions and tigers.

Seeing a group of visitors to the zoo on a recent morning, he lost no chance
to proselytize: "About this election...you are being lied to. Don't believe
all these rumors about Yushchenko."

Too polite to argue, the visitors smiled silently. Later, one of them, a
retiree named Appolinaria Yakovleva, confided that the free trip to the zoo
hasn't quite swayed her views. "I am still for Yanukovych," she said. "I
have seen so many nice things about him in newspapers and on TV."

As Mr. Zubkov organized a Yushchenko demonstration under a huge Lenin
monument that still dominates Yalta's main square, a counter-demonstration
of similar size immediately coalesced nearby, mostly by elderly women
outraged that a Yushchenko event could occur in this city at all.

"Americans have a toxic-waste problem," said one of the
counter-demonstrators, Vladimir Kostenko. "If Yushchenko wins, they will
shut down all our mines, making our people jobless, and will use the mines
to store the American toxic waste instead."

Protected by a row of police, Mr. Zubkov concluded the rally after a
half-hour of speeches and led his supporters on a march through Yalta's main
street, where hostile glares greatly outnumbered welcoming waves. Back under
the Lenin monument, local teenagers lined up to pick up Mr. Yushchenko's
campaign newsletters at the orange tent -- only to burn them a few feet
away.

Mr. Zubkov, himself an ethnic Russian who immigrated to Ukraine only in the
1980s, concedes that efforts to portray Mr. Yushchenko as an enemy of
Russian-speaking Ukraine have been effective. "For the government, it was
easy to shape people's opinions with all this outlandish lunacy," he says.
"And once an opinion is formed, we need 10 times the effort to change it."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at yaroslav.trofimov@wsj.com
==========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
==========================================================
4. FIERY OPPOSITION LEADER KEEPS THE HEAT ON UKRAINE'S REGIME
Former millionaire businesswoman Yulia Tymoshenko has a talent for
confrontation.

By David Holley, Times Staff Writer, Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles, California, Monday, December 20, 2004

KIEV, Ukraine — Tensions over disputed presidential balloting were at a peak
when Yulia Tymoshenko, the fiery second-in-command of Ukraine's opposition
movement, stepped to the microphone of an outdoor stage during a rally early
this month.

The crowd of about 150,000 had gathered to back opposition leader Viktor
Yushchenko's bid for the presidency. Tymoshenko's job was to keep the
protesters' spirits up and their determination strong after the declaration
of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich as winner of the November election.

Speaking to the crowd, she warned President Leonid D. Kuchma that if he did
not yield to opposition demands, his activities would be viewed as "a crime
against his own people." She called for protesters to mass the next day
outside the Supreme Court as it considered the opposition's allegation that
fraud had invalidated Yanukovich's victory — a position the court later
accepted, setting a rematch for the day after Christmas.

In this battle for Ukraine's future, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are playing a
good-cop, bad-cop routine. Yushchenko, 50, often appears the calm statesman,
accepting compromise when it furthers his goals and speaking in recent days
about details of the economic policy he would implement.

Tymoshenko, 44, her hair usually braided and wound in a bun on her head
in a traditional Ukrainian peasant style, focuses more on emotions. Issuing
threats to authorities and warning against complacency, she reminds
supporters that a lot can still go wrong for the opposition and fires up the
troops. At the same time, she makes no secret of her hope to be prime
minister under Yushchenko.

Early in the crisis, television footage showed a telling episode. Tymoshenko
was seen conferring with Yushchenko in parliament, then dashing outside,
where she helped a demonstrator climb over a barrier. A number of protesters

then tried to storm into parliament, a few making it through the door and
into the lobby. There, opposition leaders, including Yushchenko, urged them
to retreat. Security guards were then able to push the doors back shut
again.

It was never clear in that incident whether Tymoshenko and Yushchenko
disagreed over what to do or were staging a show of confrontation and then
compromise. But the effect was to display Yushchenko in the peacemaker's
role.

The differences between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko sometimes appear
very real, although in the nature of disputes between friends. When
parliament agreed Dec. 8 to a compromise package of laws strengthening
safeguards against electoral fraud while weakening presidential powers,
Yushchenko treated it as a major victory that virtually guaranteed him the
presidency.

But Tymoshenko grumbled for days that the opposition had been in such a
strong position, there had been no need to trade away the future president's
powers in order to ensure an honest election. She warned that members of
the political elite associated with Kuchma could remain dominant by bribing
members of parliament to do their bidding.

"This is not the kind of political reform that the people of Ukraine need,"
she declared at a news conference. "Imagine April 1945, when Hitler had lost
his campaign. Some people were preparing drugs to kill themselves. Hitler
was preparing a gun. Then [imagine if] Churchill and Stalin came and said:
'You'll keep everything you have. You have guarantees and amnesty. Just fix
your Nazi legislation a bit.' This isn't the way it should be done."

Although critical of Yushchenko's willingness to compromise, her scenario
creates a contrast with Kuchma's faction that is favorable to the opposition
leader. A few years ago, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko had a very different
partnership:

He was prime minister from 1999 to 2001, and she served as a deputy prime
minister responsible for energy issues. She fell out with Kuchma sooner than
Yushchenko did, and thus has spent more time than him as an opposition
leader.

Tymoshenko first gained prominence as the "gas princess," a businesswoman
who maneuvered skillfully in Ukraine's chaotic, corrupt business world after
the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Her company, United Energy Systems,
became one of the largest corporations in mid-1990s Ukraine. Her supporters
say that as deputy prime minister, she used her knowledge of scams common in
the energy business to crack down on corruption and boost tax collection.

Kuchma ordered her fired from that post in January 2001, shortly after her
indictment on charges of smuggling, forgery and tax evasion dating to 1996,
when she headed UES. She charged that the accusations were inspired by
powerful supporters of Kuchma to end her efforts to root out corruption.

She was briefly detained in 2001, and prosecutors continue to investigate
her and her husband, Oleksandr Tymoshenko, who was an officer with the
company. Estimates of her personal worth at the time ran into the hundreds
of millions of dollars, but she says all her wealth is now gone. Her website
says her company was destroyed and "political" charges were pressed against
its officers "by order of President Kuchma, who was maniacally afraid of
anything that he could not take under his control."

She also has faced legal charges in Russia, which has strongly backed
Yanukovich and long supported the Kuchma government. This year, Russian
prosecutors demanded her extradition on charges of bribing Russian defense
officials. The Chief Military Prosecutor's Office announced Dec. 8 that it
will soon send to court a criminal case involving two officers of the
Defense Ministry's Central Logistics Directorate accused of receiving bribes
from her.

Tymoshenko and Yushchenko are seen as pro-Western politicians who favor
strengthening Ukraine's ties with the European Union and the United States,
which raises questions about whether the Russian charges were politically
motivated.

After Russian authorities issued a warrant, Tymoshenko was briefly listed as
wanted on an Interpol website early this month, but her photo was removed
the same day. Interpol reportedly asked for more information on the case.
Asked about the Russian allegations at a news conference, Tymoshenko
responded with humor.

"As snow melts in the spring, all these charges will disappear as soon as
the presidential campaign is over," she said. "I was especially entertained
by the international search warrant. If this were true, we'd have to meet at
a spy apartment. We'd have to bring the journalists blindfolded. I'd have to
come in a long, black coat with a hat, sunglasses and a false mustache.
"Russia uses this to fight the politicians it's afraid of. This actually
flatters me, that Russia believes I can stand up for the national interests
of Ukraine." -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-tymoshenko20dec20,1,5236
336.story?coll=la-headlines-world
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
========================================================
5. STATEMENT BY CONGRESSMAN ROBERT E. ANDREWS

Office of U.S. Congressman Robert E. Andrews (D-NJ)
United States, House of Representatives
Washington, D.C., Friday, December 17, 2004

After weeks of unrest, the citizens of Ukraine have emerged victorious in
their call for justice. Recent developments have been both promising and
severely disturbing, as the Ukrainian Supreme Court annulled the results of
the flawed Presidential election held last month, and the suspected
poisoning of opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko was confirmed. I praise
the Ukrainian court for its decisiveness in favor of democracy, and look
forward to a peaceful and fair election being held on December 26, 2004.
In addition, I call upon the authorities in Ukraine to ensure that a
thorough investigation is conducted to determine the details of Mr.
Yuschenko's poisoning.

This election has tested both the Ukrainian people and their political
system, and it has been proven that, without question, this former Soviet
Republic has embraced the ideals of democracy. In calling for their civic
rights to be respected and upheld, the citizens of Ukraine have ensured that
their voices will be heard, and that they alone shall determine the fate of
their nation. I am hopeful that each and every eligible citizen in Ukraine
will embrace their right to vote on December 26th, and ensure that the will
of the people is done.

In addition to ensuring that a free and fair election is held later this
month, it is also imperative that the details of Mr. Yuschenko's poisoning
be exposed, and those responsible be brought to justice. Democracy must
never be undermined by coercion or violence, and a precedent must be set
now to ensure that the political system in Ukraine, and throughout the
world, is never again manipulated in this manner.

Again, I offer my congratulations and support to the people of Ukraine.
Their defense of democracy has been an inspiration to us all.

Signed,

Robert E. Andrews - Member of Congress
First Congressional District, New Jersey
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
========================================================
6. CEC HEAD DAVYDOVYCH: CEC TOUGHENS CONTROL
OVER ELECTORAL LISTS

IntelliNews-Ukraine Today, Kyiv, Ukraine, December 20, 2004

KYIV - CEC head Davydovych: CEC toughens control over electoral lists.
Chairman of Central Electoral Committee (CEC) Yaroslav Davydovych
noted that the committee will seriously control creation of electoral lists.

Besides, he underlined that the lists should be constantly observed, not to
allow appearance of “additional” 330,000 voters on Dec 26, as it was on
Oct 31 during the 2nd round presidential vote. According to Davydovych,
data about the number of voters and obtained voting ballots are going to
be the first thing CEC will control and examine. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.267: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
7. YUSHCHENKO AND YANUKOVYCH TO DEBATE ON
UT-1 AT 19:00 ON MONDAY, DECEMBER 20

Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Mon, December 20, 2004

KYV - Live television debates on the First National Television Channel
between the two contenders in the presidential race, Our Ukraine Coalition
leader Viktor Yuschenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, are
scheduled for 19:00, Monday, December 20. The debates starts at
19:00 and will last for 100 minutes. The CEC decided that the debates
will be held in three sections.

SECTION ONE - speeches - will last five minutes maximum for each
candidate, and the order of speaking will be defined by lot no later than
ten minutes before the beginning of TV debates. SECTION TWO -
discussions - will last 80 minutes of uninterrupted air. At this, no longer
than a minute is given for a question, and maximum three minutes are
given for an answer. If one of the candidates refuses to answer, his
opponent receives a right for a new question out of turn. The opponents
put questions in turn, with the first question from the candidate, who was
the second to deliver his speech in the first section.

SECTION THREE - concluding speech - consists of speeches maximum
5 minutes long. At this, if any of the candidates has time unused air time
left he has a right for a remark, but no longer than 30 seconds.

If one of the candidates leaves the TV debates, another receives a right for
agitation within 100 minutes allotted for the debates. If both candidates
decide to stop the debates ahead of time, the TV company has a right to use
the leftover time, but without payment for it by the CEC.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, on December 16 meeting CEC decided
to hold the TV debates between the presidential candidates on December 20.
Yanukovych expressed its readiness to engage in TV debates with Yuschenko.
The Studio 1+1 television company proposed to broadcast the political
advertisements of the election campaign headquarters of the presidential
candidates and to organize a televised presidential debate. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
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8. PUTIN- SCHROEDER TALKS EXPECTED FOCUS ON BILATERAL
ISSUES INCLUDING UKRAINE

AP, Hamburg, Germany, Monday, December 20, 2004 .

HAMBURG - Russian President Vladimir Putin was meeting in Germany
Monday with Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder for the first time since tensions
flared between Moscow and the West over Ukraine 's disputed presidential
elections.

Schroeder has developed a friendly relationship with Putin and both sides
appear keen to play down differences over Ukraine , with the chancellor
stressing ahead of the summit his country's interest in deepening a
"strategic partnership" with Russia.

The talks Monday and Tuesday in Hamburg and at a castle in Schleswig, near
the Danish border, originally were scheduled for September but were put off
by Putin because of the Beslan school massacre in southern Russia.

In an interview Friday with Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency, Schroeder
stressed that the two governments "agree that terrorism must be fought
resolutely, independently of where it strikes." He also underlined Russia's
economic importance as "one of the most dynamic growth regions in the
world." "Our aim is not only to maintain our leading position among Russia's
foreign trade partners but to develop it further," he said.

Schroeder didn't address tensions over Ukraine . Putin irritated the West by
being quick to congratulate Moscow-backed candidate Viktor Yanukovych
on winning the Nov. 21 presidential runoff, only to see the country's
supreme court void the result following allegations of massive vote-rigging.
The runoff against opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko is to be repeated
next Sunday.

Schroeder sought to dampen the crisis through telephone diplomacy with
Putin, defending the Russian leader in public and winning a pledge from him
to respect the result of the rerun. Russia's ambassador to Germany has
signaled that Moscow also wants to keep the issue from overshadowing the
summit.

"Life goes on," Vladimir Kotenev told reporters last Thursday. "There was
something of a quarrel. But both sides have said that it's now a matter for
the Ukrainian people." Russia is looking for German-Russian agreements on
rail transport, space exploration and student exchanges during the summit,
Kotenev said. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.267: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
=========================================================
9. UKRAINE'S NEXT LEADER LIKELY TO GIVE MORE
POWER TO PROVINCES

By Jan Cienski and Tom Warner in Kiev
Financial Times, London, UK, Mon, December 20 2004

No matter who wins the Ukrainian presidential election on December 26,
one of the likeliest results will be a much more decentralised country. In
eastern Ukraine, where Viktor Yanukovich, the prime minister, is more
popular, local politicians have talked about turning the country into a
federal state, or even of seceding, as a way of insulating themselves should
opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko win.

In nationalist western Ukraine, which forms Mr Yushchenko's support base,
many are advocating changes in the state's centralised structure to give
regions a stronger voice. "What we have right now is pseudo self-government,
something that is only written on paper," said Zinoviy Sirik, a deputy on
the city council of Lviv, the west's main town. "We have to create true
self-government."

Mr Yushchenko recently said that while he opposed turning Ukraine into a
federal state, he recognised that its regions should have greater economic
autonomy. As with much else in Ukraine, giving regions a greater voice runs
counter to what is happening in Russia, where President Vladimir Putin is
enhancing Moscow's authority.

At the moment, the Ukrainian president nominates regional governors and the
prime minister selects regional authorities, such as the heads of police and
customs. Elected local councils play only a peripheral role.

Crimea is an exception, enjoying the status of an autonomous republic to
curb separatism among its Russian-speaking majority. But the second round
of the presidential elections on November 21 unleashed a wave of popular
pressure to change the system. Central and western Ukraine overwhelmingly
felt the elections were fraudulent, and opposed naming Mr Yanukovich as
president-elect.

Huge protests shook Lviv. The city council, like many others local councils
in central and western Ukraine, refused to recognise Mr Yanukovich as the
victor.

Thousands of demonstrators blockaded the offices of the regional interior
ministry, customs and tax authorities, whose top officials were viewed as
corrupt representatives of Leonid Kuchma, the current president.

The local council then stepped in and named its own candidates to take over
the interior departments. A few days later, after local councils in eastern
Ukraine began talk of secession, Mr Yushchenko told his supporters in the
west to stop protesting and let the centrally nominated officials remain
until Ukraine had a new president.

The local councils obeyed and the officials are still at their posts,
although most are convinced that they have less than two weeks before
being fired. "If there is a new minister who tells us to leave, we will
leave," said a glum Igor Tsikalo, deputy head of the regional department
of internal affairs.

The taste of authority during the revolution has made local councillors
determined not to hand all power back meekly to Kiev after what almost
everyone in western Ukraine expects will be a Yushchenko victory.

West Ukrainian supporters of local self-government are careful to point out
that they want nothing to do with federalism, which would dramatically limit
Kiev's powers and which they see as a provocation from officials in eastern
Ukraine. "I don't believe in federalism because it could be dangerous in a
country like Ukraine," said Andriy Sadoviy, who owns a Lviv radio station.
"But I put a lot of hope in local self-government."

As part of the deal between Mr Yushchenko, Mr Kuchma and parliament that
ended the protests, parliament gave preliminary approval to constitutional
changes that would introduce locally elected administrators with real
executive powers. Lively debates are expected next spring on just how far
the devolution process should go.

* President Kuchma defused a dispute yesterday over the printing of ballot
papers for the December 26 vote. Ballots are supposed to be printed only by
the state mint but there were fears that it would not be able to prepare all
38m ballots in time. Mr Kuchma approved a law that allows another printing
plant to be used, despite his earlier warning that he would not sign the
bill if protesters continued to blockade his office. (With additional
reporting by Tom Warner in Kiev) -30-
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
Names for the distribution list always welcome
=========================================================
10. VETERAN TO RUN UKRAINE'S CENTRAL BANK

By Olena Horodetska, Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Friday, Dec 17, 2004

KIEV -- Volodymyr Stelmakh, who headed Ukraine's Central Bank
between 2000 and 2002, secured overwhelming approval from parliament
on Thursday to return as the bank's new chairman.

Stelmakh, seen as a cautious and conservative banker, was backed by
428 deputies in the 450-seat Verkhovnaya Rada. He replaces Serhiy
Tyhypko, who resigned amid a political crisis triggered by last
month's rigged presidential election.

Ukraine's banking system has been hit hard by political uncertainty
and mass street protests over the Nov. 21 election, forcing the
Central Bank to spend foreign currency reserves to defend the hryvna
and calm public anxiety.

Stelmakh vowed to take action to help banks win the trust of
Ukrainians, many of whom lost life savings in several failed monetary
reforms in the early 1990s.

"We cannot say the situation is extremely difficult or critical. There
is no doubt the political situation had disrupted banks' activities
and had a negative impact," he said, answering questions from deputies.

"I think there is a psychological issue that will be removed as soon
as there is political stabilization. The Central Bank already has
measures and plans others to stabilize the situation with economic
methods."

Stelmakh first worked in the Central Bank from 1992 and served for
many years as first deputy chairman. He worked well with opposition
leader Viktor Yushchenko, now the liberal candidate for president,
when the latter headed the Central Bank from 1993 to 1999.

"We welcome Stelmakh's appointment. He is well respected by bankers
and is not a member of any political party," Yushchenko told a news
conference. "He comes to the Central Bank at a time which is not easy.
Preserving the hryvna's stability will be a key issue for the Central Bank
and the government."

Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who faces Yushchenko in a Dec.
26 re-run of the vote ordered by the Supreme Court, has also backed
him.

Bankers hoped Stelmakh would maintain current policies. In the
last two years, the bank has implemented gradual reforms to
ease tight state regulations on the foreign exchange market.

"I would not like to see rash changes. I like the current management
style," said Oleksander Derkach, chairman of the country's top bank,
Aval. "I admire the professionalism of both Stelmakh and the young
team that has been in place for several months. I would like to see a
sensible compromise forged between the two."

Ukraine's Central Bank has been run for five months by Arseniy
Yatsenyuk, its 30-year-old first deputy chairman, after Tyhypko
went on leave to head Yanukovych's election campaign. Yanukovych
defended his victory, later invalidated by the Supreme Court due to
mass fraud.

Stelmakh was appointed Central Bank chairman in 2000 but was
dismissed two years later as deputies backing Kuchma wanted to
install Tyhypko, who was closer to the president.

Tyhypko, leader of the centrist Trudova Ukraina party, was criticized
by the opposition for having close links to powerful businessmen.
He resigned from the Central Bank to concentrate on politics, but has
distanced himself from Yanukovych. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
=========================================================
11.UKRAINE'S YUSHCHENKO NEEDS TO BALANCE RUSSIA, EU

ANALYSIS: By Ron Popeski, Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Dec 20, 2004

KIEV - Ukraine's Viktor Yushchenko may be the toast of Western
capitals but he will have a tricky balance to maintain between the West
and big neighbour Russia if, as expected, he wins the re-run of a
rigged election next Sunday.

The would-be president's call of "let's not miss the train for Europe" --
moving Ukraine into the European mainstream and possibly joining the
European Union and NATO -- has met with resounding endorsement from
many supporters at street rallies.

But the 50-year-old liberal former prime minister, often labelled Western-
leaning, has cautiously emphasised that Russia, the former imperial
master, remains a "strategic partner."

All the same, Ukraine, long Russia's closest ally in former Soviet
territory, seems likely to shift -- however gradually -- towards Brussels
and Washington if Yushchenko beats Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich
in the Dec. 26 repeat vote.

Moscow openly backed the prime minister in the Nov. 21 run-off between
the two men that gave victory to Yanukovich but was later annulled by the
Supreme Court on grounds of fraud.

The EU, to which three of Ukraine's neighbours belong, came down heavily
in favour of a re-run of the poll, some time before the Supreme Court
ruling. And diplomats in NATO have said informally that the U.S.-led
alliance is ready to speed Ukraine towards closer ties and membership
if Yushchenko wins the new vote.
"UNIQUE PLACE"
All this could be a bitter pill for Russia to swallow after centuries of
seeing Ukraine as a "younger brother" -- a role some analysts say
Yushchenko would end forever.

Doubts remain over Moscow's likely reaction, with memories fresh of a
spat this year in which Russian nationalists refused to accept Ukraine's
sovereignty over a Black Sea island. "With Yushchenko, there will be
no younger or older brother," said analyst Oleksander Dergachyov.

"There remains the real problem of Russia's irrational position in the
construction of Europe. But I believe that Russia will quickly learn that
Yushchenko is a far better option as leader of the country next door than
Yanukovich."

Yushchenko says much remains to be done before his country of 47 million
people, where the average monthly salary is $100, can dream of joining the
EU, whose wealth and democracy have been a beacon for the ex-communist
states of eastern Europe.

"I personally believe Ukraine has a unique geopolitical place in Europe. A
comfortable European home will depend on Ukraine's position and role,"
Yushchenko has said.

"The European Union should set up a project for Ukraine which will offer a
clear road to join the European Union provided proper measures and reforms
are undertaken."

Yushchenko, whose power base is mainly in the capital Kiev and in western
regions of the country, conspicuously reserves his warmest words about
Russia for when he is in his opponent's eastern strongholds.

"If you think in normal terms about Ukraine, Russia will always be our
northern neighbour, our strategic partner. This can be a secret for no
one," he said while campaigning in the last election.
PRACTICAL TIES
But he also seeks better, more practical ties with Russia, which provides
Ukraine with much of its oil imports and gives it gas in payment for
transit of Russian energy deliveries across Ukraine territory.

"We will tackle issues still unresolved -- economic policy, trade, customs,
jobs, capital," he said. "The main thing is that these issues should not
block Ukraine's road to the EU."

Any quick move towards expanding Ukraine's special relationship with
NATO into membership would have to manoeuvre carefully around
sympathy for Russia in eastern regions as well as take account of the
poor state of Ukraine's military.

Ukrainian analysts say a Yushchenko victory offers the EU, and the West
at large, a chance to review its policies towards the former Soviet Union.

"The West has a dilemma. Either it keeps seeing Russia as the key actor in
the ex-Soviet Union or it makes use of events in Ukraine," said independent
analyst Volodymyr Polokhalo.

"A Yushchenko win would give Europe and the West a chance to revise
their approach and see Ukraine not as a buffer but as an area in which to
extend Western influence in the region."

Yanukovich is irritated by the notion that voters are choosing a
pro-European or a pro-Russian option. He tells rallies that he, too,
favours a "European choice."

But the premier also derides the "foreign financing" of his rival's
campaign. He rails against "interference" by mediators who helped set
up the framework for the new vote, singling out President Aleksander
Kwasniewski of new EU member Poland. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
Letters to the editor are always welcome
========================================================
12. YUSHCHENKO VICTORY TO SPEED UP UKRAINE'S
DEMOCRATIZATION AND EUROPEANIZATION

By Taras Kuzio, Eurasia Daily Monitor
Volume 1, Issue 49, Jamestown Foundation
Washington, D.C., Friday, December 17

Ukraine is undergoing radical change in anticipation of a Yushchenko victory
in the repeat presidential runoff on December 26. Challenger Viktor
Yushchenko will have eight months to undertake sweeping and radical reforms
before his powers are reduced when constitutional reforms go into effect in
September 2005. Planned policies include launching criminal charges for
election fraud and completing the investigation into the murder of
opposition journalist Heorhiy Gongadze.

Such moves will be important for two reasons. First, they will demonstrate
that the rule of law is now sacrosanct in Ukraine; no one will be above the
law. Second, they will placate the "Orange Revolution," whose younger
members are closer in spirit to the radical right populist Yulia Tymoshenko,
whose parliamentary faction cast the only negative votes against this
month's compromise constitutional reform package.

Youth groups, such as the radical PORA! (It's Time!), believe Yushchenko
should have pressed his Orange Revolution advantage further. Tymoshenko's
popularity has grown in recent weeks, and her bloc should secure a larger
portion of the vote in 2006.

Cadre changes will be key in the early phase of a Yushchenko presidency.
Expect the Interior Minister Mykola Bilokin to be removed and possibly
indicted. Yushchenko campaign manager Oleksandr Zinchenko described
him as a "bandit" (www.razom.org.ua, December 15). The entire Interior
Ministry will require an extensive house cleaning.

Other cadre changes will take place in the military and state
administration. Discredited Defense Minister Oleksandr Kuzmuk cannot be
expected to stay on, and the Yushchenko camp did not welcome Svyatoslav
Piskun's reappointment as prosecutor. Regional governors who used state
resources to campaign for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych can also expect
to lose their jobs.

The presidential administration has been in crisis since the November 21
runoff. Yushchenko supporters have blockaded both the Cabinet of Ministers
building and the presidential administration building. Viktor Medvedchuk
resigned as head of the presidential office in order to concentrate on the
Social Democratic United Party. Meanwhile, deputy presidential
administration chief head Vasyl Baziv has declared that he and his staff now
support Yushchenko (Financial Times, December 13). Both obviously fear
criminal charges for election fraud.

Ukraine's media fundamentally changed after television censorship collapsed
in late November. With Medvedchuk gone, the president's office no longer
issues temnyky (secret instructions on censorship). Pro-Yushchenko Channel
Five is now the third most popular channel after Inter (the only channel
still controlled by Medvedchuk) and 1+1 (Interfax-Ukraine, December 7).

Ukraine's centrist political spectrum is re-forming and new alignments
negotiated. Yushchenko should be able to muster a parliamentary majority of
upwards of 260-270, far higher and more stable than the parliamentary
majority created by President Leonid Kuchma's camp after the 2002 elections.
This new majority will include Yushchenko's Our Ukraine, the Tymoshenko
bloc, and the Socialist Party (SPU). Another 100 or so deputies will defect
from the pro-Kuchma camp. Parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn's
Agrarians have indirectly supported Yushchenko throughout most of this year.

Serhiy Tyhipko, former head of Yanukovych's election campaign, saw his Labor
Ukraine faction implode. The Dnipropetrovsk clan, Kuchma's home base, has
no representation in parliament for the first time since the mid 1990s. Its
deputies will migrate to Yushchenko. Former Labor Ukraine oligarch Andrei
Derkach supported Yushchenko in the elections by providing him with access
to his ERA television and radio channels. The People's Democratic Party
(NDP) also collapsed when its leaders supported Yanukovych against the
wishes of the rank-and-file.

Yushchenko's parliament will have a new opposition that includes the
Communist Party (KPU), Medvedchuk's SDPUo, and Yanukovych's Regions
of Ukraine. Besides being in opposition to Yushchenko, the opposition will
be pro-Russian. This new opposition currently has 140-150 deputies, but the
figure is likely to decline further.

Volodymyr Satiuk, former deputy head of the Security Service and an
SDPUo loyalist, is also anticipated to lose his job. Yushchenko likely
ingested dioxin during a meal at Satiuk's country residence on the evening
of September 5. Satiuk would have only undertaken such an operation with
authorization from political higher ups, such as Medvedchuk. Neither
Medvedchuk not Satiuk have parliamentary immunity and are therefore
easy targets for a criminal case.

Without Medvedchuk, the SDPUo will no longer be a viable political force.
Its extensive party infrastructure will crumble, as it would no longer be
able to steal from the state budget or extort businessmen. Russian
businessman Konstantyn Grigoryshyn has already threatened to take back
many of his assets that he claims were stolen by Medvedchuk and his allies
(Ukrayinska pravda, December 13-14).

A Yushchenko victory on December 26 will permanently change Ukraine's
political landscape. Instead of Yanukovych's consolidated autocracy and
Russian-style managed democracy, Ukraine is set to move decidedly ahead
in democratization ahead of the 2006 elections, the first election to be
held in Ukraine with a fully proportional law. -30-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taras Kuzio is a Visiting Professor at the Institute for European
Russian and Eurasian Studies, George Washington University,
Washington, DC 20052, tkuzio@gwu.edu, www.ieres.org
www.taraskuzio.net.
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER THIRTEEN
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
13. KIEV LOOKS TO BRUSSELS?

Analysis: By Peter Lavelle for UPI
United Press International, Moscow, Russia, Tue, Dec 14, 2004

MOSCOW - As Ukrainians go to the polls for a third and extraordinary
presidential election on Dec. 26, opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko
has stated if elected he would pursue membership in the European
Union. In theory there is nothing stopping Ukraine from joining the EU. The
reality is that realizing membership could take a very long time, and Russia
will have a lot to say about it.

The EU's policies toward Ukraine have undergone a sea change over the
course of less than a year. Before he ended his tenure heading the European
Commission earlier this year, Romano Prodi stated Ukraine would "never"
be a member of the EU. In contrast, heads of state from the EU have made
multiple visits to Ukraine help broker a deal after the country plunged into
turmoil following the failed November presidential election.

The EU appears to have suddenly rediscovered Ukraine, egged on by
media characterizing Ukraine's political future as an East-West tug of war -
pitting the West against Vladimir Putin's alleged "neo-imperialism."

The reality is very different. When Leonid Kuchma assumed Ukraine's
presidency a decade ago, he engaged the EU concerning membership. The
EU showed little interested. Granted, a decade ago the EU was quite busy
negotiating membership for the former communist countries on Ukraine's
western borders. However, even after the latest EU expansion, welcoming
the Baltic republics, there was very little interest in Ukraine. Not getting
a clear nod from the EU, Kuchma looked east to Russia. This was not
because of any particular political reasons - economic necessity forced
him to.

Irrespective of the how one characterizes the nature of Ukraine's politics -
reformers, Westernizers, liberal vs. statist, anti-liberal, the unreformed -
economic realities dictate how Ukraine interacts with the EU and Russia.
Political labels are always created to simplify complex changes occurring on
the ground. Pundits in the West and East have been obsessed with the nature
of Ukraine's critical geopolitical role as if the Cold War never ended.
Punditry needs to learn some economics.

Ukraine's full commitment to join the EU is very problematic for a number
of reasons. With an economy largely controlled by oligarchs, it is hardly
likely the EU will welcome this anti-market arrangement into its common
economic space. To join the EU, Ukraine's political and economic elites will
have to radically transform the country's economy. Economic elites will need
incentives to change the nature of business in Ukraine. If this cannot be
done, political elites will be confronted with applying the "Yukos scenario"
to challenge the grip of the oligarchs. Last month Yukos, the Russian oil
giant, accused the Russian government of seeking its "total destruction". It
is doubtful the EU could openly agree to such an approach.

At present, Ukraine does not have a strong trade relationship with the
European Union. That cannot be said of trade with Russia. It is expected
that this year Ukraine-Russia trade turnover will be $20 billion. Trade
turnover with the EU is estimated to be only a fifth of this sum.
Importantly, the trading relationship Ukraine has with Russia amounts to
half of Ukraine's annual gross national product.

Ukraine's economic relationship with Russia is even stronger when it is
considered most of country's wealth is found in the eastern industrial
regions bordering Russia. While the calls for regional autonomy or even
secession have been greatly exaggerated, little has been said about the
strong bonds Ukraine's east has with Russian businesses.

Thus, if Ukraine is serious about joining the EU, it must have the entire
country - particularly the eastern regions - on board. If Yushchenko wins on
Nov. 26, he will have to reach out to the eastern regions and Russia to make
his hope for Ukraine's EU membership a reality. This will be a daunting
task, but not impossible.

Ukraine's pursuit of EU membership may even have a very positive upside for
Russia-EU relations. Ukraine's integration into the EU cannot avoid heavy
involvement and practical engagement of Russia. With so much of Ukraine's
economy dependent on Russia's, Brussels, Kiev, and Moscow will have to
sit at the same negotiating table. Russia does not need to join the EU, but
it can strengthen its relationship with it through Ukraine.

Much has been written about how events are unfolding in Ukraine - most of it
polemical. Ukraine has been seen as an issue separating the West and Russia.
However, if Ukraine were to truly pursue EU membership, it would demand
economic modernization at home and arrangement to protect Ukraine's trading
ties with Russia. Such an arrangement would benefit all players involved,
including Russia, and take the wind out of even the most favored grand
geopolitical conspiracy theory. -30- [Action Ukraine Monitoring]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER FOURTEEN
=========================================================
14. "EAST VS. WEST ON THE PLAYING FIELD OF UKRAINE"

COMMENTARY: by Walter Prochorenko
The Action Ukraine Report, Wash, D.C., Mo, Dec 20, 2004

As the re-run-off of the Ukrainian Presidential election draws near, the
doubt and trepidation seep in through the hope and euphoria at the thought
of Ukraine's ruling elite and oligarchs' unwillingness to give up power and
their vast, illicitly acquired wealth.

Backed by their powerful Russian supporters and armed with over 70
years of experience in disinformation, ruthless propaganda, scare tactics,
threats, intimidations, and seemingly limitless financial support, the
Yanukovich faction will not be so easily displaced or deposed. Already
the fires of separatism, industrial sabotage, threats of violence,
disruption
of government services, and plain treason, are being fanned by these
supporters who may or may not understand the consequences of their actions.

In reading the hundreds of articles, commentaries, analyses, and letters, I
am struck with the déjà-vu of the Soviet citizens who seemed more
comfortable with the lies that emanated from their ruling nomenklatura.
This was something that they could understand and this was something with
which they could come to terms. Truth was an unknown factor, and the
realms of veracity and honesty were something to be feared and avoided.

"Homo Sovieticus" - a title coined by Robert Shiller, Maxim Boycko, and
Vladimir Korobov in their 1992 study, perfectly describes the mindset of
the Yanukovich supporters who seem to fear reform, ties with the West,
and apparently any type of change. The root of their fear is the mislaid
misconception that the problems they experienced after Ukraine's
independence emanated from reformists like Yushchenko, rather than
from the very people that they now support.

Unfortunately, this Soviet carry-over - sense of despair, doomed hope,
and Cassandra syndrome, which many Russians still seem to possess, has
permeated the people of Eastern Ukraine and prevents them from giving
democracy a chance. The fear is that their mind-set and their misguided
sense of who is responsible for their dilemma may cause them to take
actions that will only benefit those who want to reoccupy Ukraine.

Perhaps I too am infused with a similar sense of helplessness when looking
at Ukraine's misdirected threats of separation and violence, but history is
a harsh tutor and Yuri Andrukhovych's reminder about a "cursed" Ukraine
sends shivers up my spine. I certainly hope my fears are unfounded and
illusory and that 2005 will bring Ukraine a new hope and direction with a
new administration. -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Walter Prochorenko is a businessman from Paramus, NJ who spent over
8 years in Ukraine in private enterprise which included consulting, real
estate development, business appraisals for banking interests, and
construction. He is presently pursuing a doctorate in International Business
with his main area of research: business in Ukraine. prowalt@hotmail.com
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 267: ARTICLE NUMBER FIFTEEN
Letters to the editor are always welcome
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15. "RUSSIA WILL NOT LEAVE UKRAINE ALONE"

OP-ED By Bishop Paul Peter Jesep
The Action Ukraine Report, Washington, D.C.
Monday, December 20, 2004

"Why am I nailed upon the cross?
Oh listen, people! Pray!
Oh pray, ye guiltless ones, because
You, too, will end this way!
For savage beasts into the fold
Have crept as sheep disguised,
And now their wolfish claws they show . . ."
By Taras Shevchenko

It is extraordinarily naive to think that Russia will walk away from Ukraine
even if, as expected, Viktor Yushchenko becomes the next president.
Moscow is not yet capable of accepting a sovereign Ukrainian nation
because there is too much at stake for it historically, politically and
economically. This attitude will not change in our life time or even over
the next several generations.

There remains among many Russian politicians, bureaucrats, church leaders
and the ordinary citizenry a commitment to pan-Slavism. Many still believe
in a nation composed of the three great Eastern Slav peoples - Ukrainians,
Byelorussians and Russians. Of course there is an underlying expectation
that governance would come primarily from Moscow. Byelorussia has already
turned away from democracy to walk into the Russian shadow.
Anne Applebaum writing for the Washington Post was surprised after learning
how a Western educated college freshman from Russia felt about events in
Ukraine.

The Post reporter initially thought that the young woman meant "that she and
her family were upset because the Russian government had helped the
Ukrainian government try to steal the election. But in fact, they were upset
because they thought Ukraine might leave Russia's sphere of influence."
Applebaum quoted the Russian student saying, "If all of these countries
around us join NATO and the European Union, Russia will be isolated. We
must prevent that from happening." Although this shows a total disregard
for the will of a sovereign nation, more important it underscores the
historic Russian attitude toward Ukraine.

"These were casual comments," the reporter reflected, "and they came from
someone who was in no way a typical Russian. But that was precisely the
oddness of it: A young woman, educated in the West, felt affronted because
Russia's neighbors want to join Western institutions. And compared with the
views of some others, who are not educated in the West, hers are relatively
mild."

The Guardian of London quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin saying in the
midst of the worldwide outrage over recent election fraud that "If Ukraine
wants to enter the European Union and is welcomed there, then we can only
be pleased.'' Prior to the comment he had consistently expressed irritation
toward any movement by Ukraine toward Western organizations. He even
had the hubris to lecture democracies not to "meddle" with Ukraine's
internal affairs. After all, that was his job.

Putin is merely waiting for things to cool down. The Russian president
realizes how badly he stumbled in attempting to overtly manipulate Ukraine
last time. He will not make the same mistake twice. Now he's deceptively
disinterested in the election's outcome.

What Putin has failed to achieve with raw, political bullying he will
accomplish with other tactics. Trade agreements between Kyiv and Moscow
could be used as leverage to contain an emerging Ukrainian consciousness.
Inciting ethnic unrest in the Crimea or Eastern Ukraine could be another.
This needs to be carefully monitored in the post-Kuchma era by Western
governments and Diaspora Ukrainians.

There are an estimated 7,000 election observers for the December 26th
presidential rematch. That's great. The odds are better than fifty percent
that presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko will rightfully win. Liberty
has a chance.

The opponents of Ukrainian sovereignty appear accommodating at present.
It's all the more reason to be on guard for the long-term. Putin is still
looking and will continue searching for ways that provide Russia an
advantage in Europe's second largest nation.

There are many trade and professional groups throughout the world linked to
their Ukrainian heritage that must stay involved. The Ukrainian-American
Bar Association, for example, is one of them though there are counterparts
in other countries. These groups comprise lawyers, doctors, professors, and
teachers that will have much work to do after the December 26th election.
Lawyers can further help buttress the fledgling judicial system, professors
can encourage more student exchanges with thriving democracies, writers can
better assist journalists create and sustain a free media and church leaders
must be open minded about religious freedom while reminding the Russian
Orthodox Church and its allies that they do not have the legal or moral
authority to tell Ukrainians how to walk with God.

The former KGB agent has time on his side. Perhaps he'll wait for
Yushchenko to fall ill. Or as noted twist an economic noose around Ukraine'
s neck. Putin will never give up. To do so runs contrary to centuries of
Russian imperial history. Although Diaspora Ukrainians expect to celebrate
Yushchenko's victory; they must be even more engaged if the marvelous
achievements of the Orange patriots are to be protected from the northern
neighbor. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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Bishop Paul Peter Jesep is the Vicar General and Chancellor of the
Archeparchy for the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church of North
and South America Sobornopravna. His Grace, a lawyer and political
scientist by training, is a former legislative analyst to U.S. Senator Susan
Collins (R-ME). He has studied at Bangor Theological Seminary (bts.org),
the third oldest such school in the United States. His Grace may be reached
at VladykaPaulPeter@aol.com. The views expressed here are strictly
personal.
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