"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
"UKRAINE HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED"
"Mr Kuchma had insisted there would be no "Georgian scenario". His officials
argued that Mr Kuchma was much more secure than Eduard Shevardnadze,
Georgia's former president, and that Ukrainians were more passive than
Georgians.
They were wrong. A nation battered into submission by war and oppression
in the 20th century threw off its mental shackles. As Nadia Berezovska, a
middle-aged postmistress who joined the protests, said: 'We used to go
down on our knees before the people in power, but now we have got to
our feet.'" [article number one]
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 268
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net
Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine, TUESDAY, December 21, 2004
NOTE: Do not miss out on the news from Ukraine! Please send this
Report to anyone you think would like to receive this publication.
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-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. "WE USED TO KNEEL BEFORE THE PEOPLE IN POWER"
UKRAINE HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED BY THE POLITICAL
TURMOIL OF RECENT MONTHS
If Viktor Yushchenko does win the presidency in next week's rerun
election he faces huge challenges, write Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner
By Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner
Financial Times, London, UK, Tue, December 21 2004
2 VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO TELLS TV AUDIENCE:
'PM TRIED TO STEAL THE ELECTION'
Askold Krushelnycky in Kiev, The Independent
London, United Kingdom; Tue, Dec 21, 2004
3. YUSHCHENKO ATTACKS, YANUKOVYCH DUCKS IN
TV DEBATE AHEAD OF SUNDAY'S RERUN PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
Agence France Presse (AFP), Kiev, Ukraine, Mon, Dec 20, 2004
4. VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH CONCILIATORY IN CLOSING
REMARKS OF TV DEBATE
UT1, Kiev, in Russian 1847 gmt 20 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English Monday, Dec 20, 2004
5. VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO'S CLOSING REMARKS IN TV DEBATE
UT1, Kiev, in Ukrainian 1700 gmt 20 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Mon, Dec 20, 2004
6.YANUKOVICH TURNS ON KUCHMA IN ANTI-WEST OUTBURST
By Tom Warner in Sevastopol, Financial Times
London, UK, Tuesday, December 21 2004
7. YUSHCHENKO LIKELY TO PUSH REFORMS IF ELECTED
Ukraine Opposition Leader Expected to Buoy Economy
EUROPEAN BUSINESS NEWS
By Poul Funder Larsen, Dow Jones Newswires
The Wall Street Journal, NY, NY, Tue, December 21, 2004
8. "'MEDDLING' IN UKRAINE"
Democracy is not an American plot
OP-ED By Michael McFaul, The Washington Post
Washington, D.C. Tuesday, December 21, 2004; Page A25
9. "A DINNER IN UKRAINE MADE FOR AGATHA CHRISTIE"
By C. J. Chivers, The New York Times
New York, NY, Monday, December 20, 2004
10.UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION DEPUTY SAYS INTERIOR MINISTRY
HELPED RIG PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
UNIAN news agency, Kiev, in Ukrainian 1536 gmt 20 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service,UK, in English, Monday, Dec 20, 2004
11. US DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE ARMITAGE TO LEAD U.S.
DELEGATION TO UKRAINE IN LATE DECEMBER
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, December 21, 2004
12. UKRAINE: CEC OUTLINES PROCEDURE FOR TEC'S TO
SEND PRELIMINARY REPORTS ON REVOTE
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Mon, December 20, 2004
13. "ORANGE AND AUSCHWITZ"
OP-ED By Bohdan Koczor, Chicago Tribune
Chicago, Illinois, Tuesday, December 21, 2004
14. "A PARTY FROM THE OLD LIFE"
The Ukrainian party of power faces reality of being in the opposition
By Yehor Sobolev, Zerkalo Nedeli, Kiev, in Russian 18 Dec 04; p 1, 2
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Tue, Dec 21, 2004
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
========================================================
1. "WE USED TO KNEEL BEFORE THE PEOPLE IN POWER"
UKRAINE HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED BY THE POLITICAL
TURMOIL OF RECENT MONTHS
If Viktor Yushchenko does win the presidency in next week's rerun
election he faces huge challenges, write Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner
By Stefan Wagstyl and Tom Warner
Financial Times, London, UK, Tue, December 21 2004
Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine's prime minister, and Viktor Yushchenko, the
opposition leader, last night confronted each other in a television debate,
their only face-to-face meeting before Sunday's rerun of the country's
disputed presidential election. The atmosphere was formal, but there was no
disguising the tensions in Europe's most important political drama of 2004.
Mr Yushchenko has emerged from weeks of crisis as the favourite to win.
But the tough-talking Mr Yanukovich is not giving up. And if he loses, he is
likely to appeal to the courts, as Mr Yushchenko did last time. Whatever
happens on December 26, Ukraine's biggest political crisis since it won
independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 will rumble on into 2005.
If Mr Yushchenko wins he faces big challenges, including building a genuine
democracy, developing a free market economy and uniting a divided country.
He must cope with the legacy of the decade-long authoritarian rule of
President Leonid Kuchma. Abroad, he must deal with Russia, which has
openly backed Mr Yanukovich, and try to fulfil his hopes of better ties with
the west, especially the European Union.
Russia and the west will have to decide how to engage with a new Ukraine. If
Mr Yushchenko wins and consolidates his victory, the "Orange Revolution"
could set a powerful democratic precedent for neighbouring states, including
Russia. But if Mr Yanukovich wins or if a Yushchenko presidency runs into
trouble, it could be Russian-style "managed democracy" that triumphs in the
region.
Kalman Mizsei, regional director for the United Nations Development
Programme for Europe and the former Soviet Union, says: "This country
really has to fight for its identity. But I think that [events in] Ukraine
will have an effect on the whole region."
The country that the election winner will govern will be quite different
from the one that went into the presidential election campaign this summer.
Most Ukrainians expected that Mr Kuchma would end his 10 years in power
by ensuring the succession of his hand-picked successor, Mr Yanukovich. The
administrative machine was organised to manipulate television and dragoon
managers into bullying their staff to back the prime minister. Russian and
Ukrainian business were encouraged to provide support.
When this failed to win enough votes, the authorities rigged the ballot and
Mr Yanukovich was officially declared winner in the November 21 poll.
But he had underestimated Mr Yushchenko and the extent of public discontent.
The opposition leader, who had served Mr Kuchma as central bank governor
and prime minister before striking out on his own in politics, prepared
carefully for the election by building a broad coalition. The campaign
suffered a big setback when Mr Yushchenko was poisoned, allegedly while
dining with Ukrainian secret police chiefs. The 50-year-old opposition
leader was left badly disfigured. But he became even more determined to
overthrow Mr Kuchma.
When Mr Yushchenko realised the election was being stolen he called
out his supporters. They came in their tens of thousands and did not leave
until the poll had been declared invalid, a new date set and a package of
reforms enacted to try to prevent frauds. A few thousand remain in place
in central Kiev.
This was the "Orange Revolution" that has changed Ukraine. To an extent
it was pre-planned, as Mr Yushchenko's campaign managers had made
contingencies for a fraudulent result. But mostly the protests were
spontaneous: so large that they surprised even Mr Yushchenko's supporters.
At their peak, 500,000 crowded into central Kiev, creating a rolling
carnival of orange hats, scarves and banners.
Mr Kuchma had insisted there would be no "Georgian scenario". His officials
argued that Mr Kuchma was much more secure than Eduard Shevardnadze,
Georgia's former president, and that Ukrainians were more passive than
Georgians.
They were wrong. A nation battered into submission by war and oppression
in the 20th century threw off its mental shackles. As Nadia Berezovska, a
middle-aged postmistress who joined the protests, said: "We used to go
down on our knees before the people in power, but now we have got to
our feet."
Whatever happens in the election, Ukraine has been transformed. Any attempt
to re-impose authoritarian rule would face serious resistance. People are
already trying to institutionalise the change. For example, in the provinces
local leaders are demanding administrative decentralisation. It is easy to
see this as a danger, especially with the political division of the country
between a Russia-oriented east that has supported Mr Yanukovich and
central and western regions that mostly back Mr Yushchenko.
However, east and west share a belief that Mr Kuchma has concentrated
too much power in Kiev. Hryhory Nemyrya , chairman of the Renaissance
Foundation, a west-oriented Kiev think tank, says that in this proliferation
of local initiatives "civil society is being born". his wave of popular
enthusiasm creates political challenges. Expectations are running high and
disappointments are almost inevitable. As the likely election winner, Mr
Yushchenko faces many hurdles.
The first is the poll itself. Everything points to a much more honest vote
than last time, but one that will still not be completely fair. The will of
the Kuchma government to resist popular support for Mr Yushchenko
has been broken. Most officials in Kiev, governors and lower-level
administrators in central and western regions have likewise given up
the game.
The key organisers of election fraud and of unfair tactics have left the
scene, including the prosecutor general, the interior minister and the
central election commission chairman. Other senior figures in Mr Kuchma's
administration have deserted Mr Yanukovich: they are headed by Viktor
Pinchuk, a business oligarch and Mr Kuchma's son-in-law. But the prime
minister has retained the support of business leaders in the eastern Donbas
industrial region, including Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest man, and
Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the presidential administration and a
powerful businessman. Mr Kuchma himself seems to be oscillating between
the two groups.
Safeguards against fraud have been dramatically improved. Electoral reforms
passed earlier this month limit the scope for cheating. The Central Election
Commission and local election commissions are being reconstituted.
International observers are coming in even larger numbers than last month
(see above).
It is therefore unlikely that there will be large-scale cheating anywhere
except in the Donbas region. Mr Yanukovich's strategy is not to win but to
confirm himself as the political leader of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and
establish himself as the head of the national opposition to Mr Yushchenko.
He expects big wins in Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine's far east, where he
scored more than 90 per cent last time. The test will be how much support he
wins in the centre and south.
Mr Yanukovich will also want to undermine the validity of the result by
seizing on any evidence of wrongdoing by Mr Yushchenko's supporters, so
he can later claim he was cheated.
Assuming Mr Yushchenko wins, his next challenge will be forming his
government. His coalition was largely formed to overthrow Mr Kuchma and,
once Mr Kuchma has gone, tensions will inevitably emerge. Mr Yushchenko's
allies include Olexander Moroz, the Socialist party leader, Anatoliy Kinakh,
a former prime minister and an important defector from the Kuchma camp,
and Yulia Tymoshenko, a former deputy prime minister in Mr Yushchenko's
reformist government of 1999-2001.
Ms Tymoshenko is a controversial figure, having made a fortune in the early
1990s trading in the state-controlled gas market. With her firebrand
speeches she has played a big role in the "Orange Revolution". But her
radical views - she has called for a wholesale review of past
privatisations - clash with Mr Yushchenko's conciliatory approach. She is
also tainted by corruption claims dating back to the mid-1990s, which she
dismisses as political attacks. Building a government around Ms Tymoshenko
will be difficult. Building one without her might be even harder.
To make matters worse Mr Yushchenko will have only a few months before
constitutional changes take effect. Agreed with Mr Kuchma earlier this
month, these involve transferring power from the presidency to parliament,
starting later this year and ending in the spring of 2006, just after the
next parliamentary election.
In principle, Mr Yushchenko supports the reforms because they make any
return to authoritarianism more difficult. But in practice, the changes will
greatly complicate political life.
The job will be made tougher by Mr Yushchenko's determination to allow
prosecutors to investigate crimes of the Kuchma era - notably his own
poisoning and the murder in 2000 of opposition journalist Georgy Gongadze.
How fast the investigators work and whom they target could easily cause
arguments among the coalition partners.
Ukraine's east-west tensions will require careful handling. During the
current crisis, leaders in the Donbas have made separatist threats but they
are not a serious danger. The division between a nationalist
Ukrainian-speaking west and a Russia-oriented Russian-speaking east has
declined since independence, largely as a result of Mr Kuchma's efforts to
build a single nation. Mr Yushchenko hopes planned administrative devolution
will satisfy the demands for regional autonomy.
The economy will require rapid remedial action. After coming close to
economic collapse in the 1990s, Ukraine has recently staged a strong
recovery, with 12 per cent gross domestic product growth expected this year.
However, even Mr Kuchma's ministers are predicting a sharp slowdown next
year, cutting a forecast 8.6 per cent growth to 6.5 per cent. Boosted by a
pre-election public spending spree, inflation and government borrowing are
rising.
Yushchenko also faces serious structural economic questions. He has promised
to resist calls for the wholesale revision of privatisation, saying he wants
to concentrate on the future. But he plans to review the state's $800m sale
of the Kryvorizhstal steel mill, acquired this year by Mr Pinchuk and Mr
Akhmetov. Drawing a line between this deal and others, while encouraging
new investment, will be tricky.
International relations will require urgent action. Mr Yushchenko wants
better ties with the west, which have suffered from the reluctance of the US
and the EU to engage with Mr Kuchma's regime. Ukrainians will hope for
rapid change, especially in relations with Brussels.
But the EU has ruled out what Ukrainians most want - an early promise of
eventual membership. At this month's EU summit, leaders rejected Poland's
proposals for a special relationship with a democratic Ukraine. Instead,
Kiev may secure modest aid increases, quicker recognition of market economy
status and support for joining the World Trade Organisation.
Mr Yushchenko may make more progress with Nato, which has run a partnership
programme with Kiev for some time. Mr Yushchenko's colleagues hope for entry
in two years, but the obstacles are formidable - not least Russia's likely
opposition.
Mr Yushchenko says he wants good ties with Moscow. But the difficulties are
immense. President Vladimir Putin's officials see the former Soviet Union as
Russia's sphere of influence and regard western involvement as an intrusion.
They are furious at what they see as "losing" Ukraine to Mr Yushchenko and
seem certain to continue backing Mr Yanukovich. At their disposal they have
powerful weapons, including political and economic ties and security service
links.
The Baltic states offer examples of how Russia interferes in the politics of
former Soviet republics. In Lithuania, Rolandas Paksas, a populist
politician backed by Russian money, last year won the presidency. He was
impeached and replaced this year because of alleged links with Russian
intelligence and Russian organised crime. In Latvia and Estonia, Russian
ministers exploit the difficulties of ethnic Russian minorities. Ukraine,
which was ruled from Moscow for centuries, seems even more open to
manipulation.
Coming from a small village not far from the Ukrainian-Russian border, Mr
Yushchenko understands the challenge Russia represents. Nothing will help
more in his dealings with the Kremlin than an emphatic victory on Sunday.
Petro Poroshenko, the 39-year-old owner of Ukraine's largest confectionery
company who played a leading role in the "Orange Revolution", says he is
determined to prove that business and politics in his country do not have to
be intimately intertwined.
As one of the top figures in Viktor Yushchenko's team, Mr Poroshenko is
expected to get an important job - possibly the post of prime minister - if
the opposition leader wins the presidency. That is putting Mr Poroshenko and
his business holdings in the limelight. "I think we will have an opportunity
to prove that we did not go to the government just for positions. We really
want to create a democratic system," says Mr Poroshenko, the chairman of
the parliamentary budget committee.
Supporters of Viktor Yanukovich, the incumbent prime minister and Mr
Yushchenko's opponent, say the elections are a contest between two "clans"
of business people, some of whom were satisfied with their relationship with
the current government and others who were jealous. Mr Yushchenko's
supporters reject that view and say a new generation of business leaders has
accepted the principles of free-market democracy, such as a level playing
field and the rule of law.
Mr Poroshenko says he is not involved in managing his own businesses, having
put his shares into trust after he was first elected to parliament in 1998.
However, he remains chairman of the non-executive "public council" of his
television channel, Channel 5. Although its broadcasts reach only parts of
the country, Channel 5 has emerged during the election campaign as one of
Ukraine's three most-watched television channels. It broadcast live coverage
of the protests in downtown Kiev, which were initially ignored by almost all
other channels. "Before these elections, only 3 to 6 per cent of people were
interested in political news. Today the figure is around 50 per cent," Mr
Poroshenko says.
One obvious difference between the businessmen around Mr Yushchenko and
those close to Mr Yanukovich and Leonid Kuchma, the outgoing president, is
in the scale of their holdings. Ukraine's richest men - including Mr
Kuchma's son-in-law, Viktor Pinchuk, and Rinat Akhmetov, a coal and steel
baron allied to Mr Yanukovich - control business empires with annual sales
in the billions of dollars. The business people behind Mr Yanukovich are
involved mainly in heavy industry or commodities, while Mr Yushchenko's
supporters in business are more likely to be involved in consumer goods and
services.
Roshen, Mr Poroshenko's confectionery company, recorded $274m of sales
last year. The figures for his other companies - including a bank, a
shipyard, a small car plant and a brewery - are relatively modest.
Mr Poroshenko says the new cabinet should set clear rules for all
businesses. His priority is to collect more taxes from big businesses,
including the private empires that emerged under Mr Kuchma and the
remaining big state companies - such as the national railways and Naftogaz,
the oil and gas company - which he alleges have become vehicles for
diverting state funds.
Another financial challenge is the state pension fund, which is being
quickly drained by a huge pension increase that Mr Yanukovich pushed
through just before the elections. The Mr Poroshenko says the solution is
to follow up with increases to state salaries in order to boost the pension
fund's income, although he acknowledges that the strategy will spur
inflation
to some extent.
Mr Poroshenko is known as a moderate with an eye for strategic compromises.
He pushed strongly for the agreement with Mr Kuchma earlier this month that
ended public protests in Kiev. The resulting constitutional changes - giving
more power to the parliament and the cabinet - could become crucial after
parliamentary elections in 2006. Mr Poroshenko says: "We have at least a
year to prove ourselves." -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.268: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
========================================================
2. VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO TELLS TV AUDIENCE:
'PM TRIED TO STEAL THE ELECTION'
Askold Krushelnycky in Kiev, The Independent
London, United Kingdom; Tuesday, Dec 21, 2004
KIEV - UKRAINE'S BITTER presidential rivals clashed last night on live
television in their first face-to-face encounter since the massive street
protests that propelled the country into the international spotlight and
overturned the election result. The eagerly awaited debate lived up to its
billing as the West-leaning Viktor Yushchenko accused the Russian-backed
Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych, of trying to steal the November run-off.
The pair's only previous television appearance was a strictly choreographed
affair with the subjects agreed upon beforehand and no room for real debate.
The old format was at the insistence of the Yanukovych camp. This time it
was played out under Yushchenko's rules in the only debate before the
Boxing Day rerun of last month's presidential election.
The opposition, backed by international observers, declared that the
original election had been rigged in favour of the government candidate, Mr
Yanukovych, a view upheld by Ukraine's Supreme Court, which ordered a
repeat election for next Sunday.
Mr Yushchenko, not known for aggressive rhetoric, came out fighting, saying:
"You the viewers may be asking why we two guys are back here again. It's
because Mr Yanukovych and his team tried to steal the election."
Mr Yanukovych was declared the winner in the 21 November election by a
narrow margin. But the opposition maintain that cheating, mostly by people
provided with fake documents who voted for Mr Yanukovych multiple times
at different polling stations, filched three million votes.
However, Mr Yanukovych warned Mr Yushchenko that nearly half the country
voted for each of them and if they do not come to some agreement whoever
wins will represent only part of the country. Mr Yanukovych also warned of a
possible break-up of Ukraine, an echo of warnings made by his allies,
governors of the eastern regions where the country's large ethnic Russian
minority predominantly live. The opposition has said that if it comes to
power, as most opinion polls now predict, it will charge those officials
with treason. Referring to separatist threats, Mr Yushchenko said: "We
should all ensure that the Ukraine's integrity is sacred and agree that
nobody should run off to eastern or southern Ukraine and try to break it
up."
Mr Yanukovych, who has been heavily backed by the Russian President,
Vladimir Putin, accused his opponent of being sponsored by the West. He has
said many times that the hundreds of thousands of opposition demonstrators
who forced the fresh election had been paid money for their weeks of
protests. His wife said they had all been drugged by narcotics administered
in oranges given to them.
Mr Yushchenko said: "Those people out on the streets are not being paid by
anyone. You can see that by looking in their eyes." He said they were
motivated by a desire to see a government installed by their vote and not by
the sort of sleight of hand used since Ukraine's independence 13 years ago.
He said: "They don't want the president of Ukraine to be elected in Russia."
Referring to his opponent's two prison stretches for assault and robbery, Mr
Yushchenko said: "I have not taken money from anyone. I have never stolen
anything and I have never been convicted of any crime." -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.268: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
========================================================
3. YUSHCHENKO ATTACKS, YANUKOVYCH DUCKS IN
TV DEBATE AHEAD OF SUNDAY'S RERUN PRESIDENTIAL VOTE
Agence France Presse (AFP), Kiev, Ukraine, Mon, Dec 20, 2004
KIEV (AFP) - Ukraine opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko hammered
his presidential rival for stealing votes as the two men faced off during
their sole televised debate days ahead of a historic re-run election.
"There is one reason why we are here -- the election of November 21 was
stolen by my opponent and his team," Viktor Yushchenko said, speaking in
Ukrainian, in his opening remarks in reference to a vote officially won by
his rival but later annulled by the supreme court because of fraud. "You
stole three million votes," he told his opponent Viktor Yanukovich, a prime
minister who has taken a leave for the campaign.
The phrase set the tone for the rest of the nearly two-hour debate --
Yushchenko, confident and on steady moral ground, challenging a Yanukovich
who often rambled and at times seemed resigned to defeat. "Yushchenko was
100 percent sure that he will win the election and Yanukovich was 90 percent
sure that he is going to lose," said Kostyantyn Kvurt, an analyst in Kiev.
The prime-time exchange came days ahead of their December 26 rematch,
which was set after the earlier vote embroiled Ukraine in its worst
political crisis in 13 years of independence and enflamed tensions between
Russia and the West.
Throughout the debate Yushchenko, wearing a tie in the orange color of his
campaign, reminded people of the "orange revolution" that the opposition
organized to protest fraud after the November poll. "They tried to steal our
future," he said.
Yanukovich, wearing a tie in the blue color of his campaign and speaking
mostly in Russian, tried to distance himself from the government he headed
for two years and appealed to Yushchenko to join efforts, warning him that
his presidency would otherwise lack legitimacy. "Those on (Kiev's central
Independence) Square lived this revolution with their souls and I agree with
them," Yanukovich said. "We have de facto divided Ukraine," Yanukovich
said. "We have to sit down to discuss how to live after the election."
The two men should unite "to send this old regime into retirement,"
otherwise "one of us will be elected president of one part of the country,"
he said. But Yushchenko was unrelenting. "You are the candidate of the
regime," he said.
With less than a week to go before a December 26 rerun election, the
two rivals are in very different positions than ahead of their November
contest -- the pro-Western Yushchenko is now seen as the frontrunner
while the Moscow-friendly prime minister is casting himself as an outsider
fighting the ruling regime.
The crisis over the November vote split the country in two deeply polarized
camps, with the Ukrainian-speaking, nationalist west and north supporting
Yushchenko, 50, and the Russian-speaking, industrial south and east backing
Yanukovich, 54.
It also echoed on the world stage, with the European Union and the United
States backing Yushchenko's claims of fraud while Russia backed Yanukovich.
Both candidates mentioned the international dimension to their contest
Monday night. "It is high time that the president of an independent Ukraine
not be elected by Moscow," Yushchenko said. "The Ukrainian people can
chose its president of their own free will."
When Yanukovich made a half-hearted attempt to question the source of
financing of Yushchenko's campaign, asking him if he would be in favor of
limiting foreign non-government organizations in Ukraine, the opposition
leader parried: "I thought you were going to ask me directly whether I was
financed by Russian or American money," he said.
"I have to tell you truthfully, my hands are clean, I have never stolen
anything in my life... I have never been convicted, I lead an honest life,"
Yushchenko said, in a thinly-veiled reference to Yanukovich's two criminal
convictions as a youth that he would repeat several times.
At times Yanukovich seemed to nearly admit defeat. When Yushchenko
demanded why Yanukovich had once called his supporters "assholes" and
"orange rats," the prime minister replied meekly: "If I've used emotional
words, I beg your pardon." And in his closing remarks Yanukovich said:
"I want to apologize to you all that we had irregularities in our campaign."
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.268: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
=========================================================
4. VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH CONCILIATORY IN CLOSING
REMARKS OF TV DEBATE
UT1, Kiev, in Russian 1847 gmt 20 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English Monday, Dec 20, 2004
KIEV - Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has called for a peaceful
end to the election campaign saga in his closing remarks after a televised
debate with his election rival, opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko. He
apologized for any "incorrectness" during his election campaign, and
reiterated his peace offer made to Yushchenko earlier in the debate. The
following is the text of Yanukovych's closing remarks broadcast live by
Ukrainian state-owned television UT1 on 20 December:
[Yanukovych] Dear compatriots! All these days after 21 November, after the
runoff round, all out country has spent in tribulations. You have just heard
our conversation with Mr Yushchenko. We both have our positions, and we
both have different views of these events. I believe that after these events
we have seen a different country, and a different Ukrainian people. The
Ukrainian people have woken up and opened their eyes. I am not accusing
the people who took to the streets in protest. I realize that over all these
years, a lot of problems have accumulated. In this way or another, many
people have been treated unfairly. And I too disagreed with some things, and
that is exactly why I came to Kiev two years ago to work as prime minister
in order somehow to influence the processes going on here in the capital.
We have seen different positions. I have been and I remain a proponent of
stability. We have worked as best as we could to solve many problems. You
have had an opportunity to assess my work. It will all depend on your
assessment. After the election, and even now we can already say that we all
have our point of view as to how the multiethnic Ukrainian people will build
our lives, and which course the country will take.
I have made an offer to Mr Yushchenko, I hope he will think about it, to
join our efforts and make sure that the election campaign is peaceful, and
to see the New Year in peace. I would also like to apologize to you all for
any incorrectness there has been during my election campaign. I hope there
will be no feeling of anger lingering after the election, and that our
society will come out renovated after this, and that we see the New Year
with our families and children. As they say, the New Year will be the way
you spend its first day.
I would like to ask all of you to come to the polling stations on 26
December, to keep calm and believe that we will build together our future
and remember about our duty to our children. Our elderly people must also
rest assured that we will protect them. I believe in Ukraine, in our people.
I will serve the Ukrainian people and, with God's help, solve many problems.
I will always we honest and fair to you. Thank you. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
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5. VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO'S CLOSING REMARKS IN TV DEBATE
UT1, Kiev, in Ukrainian 1700 gmt 20 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Mon, Dec 20, 2004
Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko warned against separatism
and pledged that all Ukrainian regions will be treated fairly if he wins. In
his closing remarks during a live TV debate, he promised that he will not
close Russian-language schools, Moscow-affiliated churches or seek to
isolate Russian-speaking eastern regions. The following is the text of
Yushchenko's closing remarks broadcast by Ukrainian state-owned
television UT1 on 20 December:
[Yushchenko] Dear compatriots, dear Ukrainians, dear people. There were a
lot of emotions during the presidential election campaign. There were many
words used, both face to face and on TV screens, which described various
processes, both internal and external. I am proceeding from the fact that 26
December is polling day, which will come soon. Life will go on after 26
December. Understanding will be sought regarding the key issue that became
a cornerstone for Ukrainians. That is Ukraine's unity.
Dear friends, I was born in eastern Ukraine, several dozen kilometres from
the Russian border. I was raised according to my father's morals, who was a
soldier of the Soviet Army, a border guard. I was a border guard myself.
Then he was taken prisoner and was imprisoned in Auschwitz, Dachau and
Buchenwald. I was raised according to his morals and values. Thanks to him,
I learned to love my motherland, which is called Ukraine.
It hurts me today, regardless of the circumstances and regardless of
emotions, when someone somewhere raises the issue and encroaches on
the sacred thing by saying that there are three kinds of Ukrainians [in the
east, centre and west], or that Ukraine should be a federation, or that a
south-eastern republic should be created.
I am giving you my word about the thing I will mention later on. When I am
going to the Sumy Region to visit my mother, there is not a single field
without burial mounds. There lie the bones of our people, our grandfathers,
who were fighting for a sovereign country. I am calling on all politicians
to beware of one thing - no ideas of splitting Ukraine, no ideas of any
federalization should be mooted now. This is a present we could give
Ukraine on New Year Day.
Next. I would like to give a more precise response to some statements I've
heard, including those made by Viktor Fedorovych here. As regards regional
policy, dear colleagues, when I am president every region will have its own
place, corresponding to its potential. Second, nobody will close a single
Russian-language school. Third. Nobody will divide Ukrainians into three
kinds, as it was said on the banners hanged in Kiev and across Ukraine by
the pro-government force. Crimea will always belong to Crimeans and to
Ukraine, rather than any single ethnic group. Viktor Fedorovych, nobody will
fence Luhansk and Donetsk off with barbed wire. You are a serious person.
Don't repeat these myths.
Nobody will close a single Orthodox church to the benefit of any other
church. Dear friends, there are 250 religions in the world. Everyone has
their own road to God, everyone has their own church. Tell me please, who
can show someone else where they should worship? This is your
responsibility, because you are bearing your own cross. We assure you that
no church will be persecuted, I want to emphasize - not a single one,
because we are living in the third millennium.
Next, nobody will raze the Seventh Kilometre market in Odessa. Nobody will
bring Sevastopol down to its knees. Every citizen in Ukraine will speak the
language they find more convenient. And the last one. I am running for
president to tell everybody who is working honestly and living honestly - I
wish you peace, peace to your home, peace to your families and houses. I
wish you luck. -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
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6.YANUKOVICH TURNS ON KUCHMA IN ANTI-WEST OUTBURST
By Tom Warner in Sevastopol, Financial Times
London, UK, Tuesday, December 21 2004
SEVASTOPOL - Viktor Yanukovich, Ukrainian prime minister, yesterday
positioned himself as radically anti-western, accusing Leonid Kuchma, the
outgoing president who supported him in last month's failed election, of
betraying him and Ukraine to foreign interests.
Speaking in a televised debate ahead of fresh presidential elections on
Sunday, he told Viktor Yushchenko, the opposition leader: "I'm against you
[Mr Yushchenko and Mr Kuchma] uniting and teaching Ukrainians how to
live with help from za bugra, he said using a coarse expression for
"abroad".
Accused by Mr Yushchenko of mismanaging the economy, Mr Yanukovich
also claimed that foreign election observers had interfered in the recent
political crisis by funding street demonstrations.
The highly emotional exchange contrasted sharply with a carefully managed
"debate" held before the previous election. In that exercise, the two
candidates were restricted to taking turns making speeches and were not
allowed to ask each other questions. In spite of Mr Yanukovich's
hard-hitting tone, it was Mr Yushchenko who appeared the more confident
of the two last night.
Mr Yanukovich, who was declared the winner of what was supposed to
be the final round of the presidential elections last month, is expected to
do significantly less well in this Sunday's repeat vote. The Supreme Court
ordered the repeat vote after ruling that last month's election was spoiled
by systematic fraud.
The anger expressed by Mr Yanukovich in last night's debate echoed the
heightened emotion of campaigning in the southern and eastern regions, which
supported him last time but now appear more divided.
In Sevastopol, the Crimean city that hosts the main base of Russia's Black
Sea Fleet, a St Nicholas day religious procession turned violent on Sunday.
A small group of Mr Yanukovich's supporters who had marched in the
procession split off and began waving their blue-and-white Yanukovich
banners in front of passing cars. Eyewitnesses said that when a few cars
decorated in the orange colour of Mr Yushchenko's campaign approached,
they were attacked by Yanukovich supporters.
"Unfortunately, what happened here on Sunday was part of a clear trend,"
said Timofey Nikityuk, head of the local branch of the Committee of Voters
of Ukraine, a domestic election observer group. "Campaigning [for the repeat
election] has been much more aggressive than it was before previous rounds."
The residents of Sevastopol were among the most disappointed when Mr
Yanukovich's win was annulled. According to the official results, Mr
Yanukovich won more than 88 per cent of the city's votes, and Mr
Yushchenko's campaign team acknowledges that it will lose in the city even
if the election is fair.
Likewise, in Mr Yanukovich's native Donbas region, Mr Yushchenko's
supporters have been attacked by groups of young men and some have been
seriously injured. Journalists covering Yushchenko campaign events have been
beaten and their cameras damaged.
In other southern and eastern regions, the campaign has been peaceful but
filled with tension. In the Black Sea town of Odessa on Saturday, Mr
Yanukovich and a member of Mr Yushchenko's political team, Olexader
Moroz, held rival campaign rallies in a central square in close succession.
A couple of hundred supporters of Mr Yanukovich, who appeared first, stayed
on to shout taunts and wave blue-and-white banners at Mr Moroz and the
orange-bedecked crowd. Lines of police separated the two groups but many
Yushchenko and Yanukovich supporters peeled off to argue with each other.
"Go! Get out of here! You have no connection whatsoever with Odessa!"
shouted one middle-aged supporter of Mr Yanukovich, her eyes wet with tears.
In central and western regions, Mr Yushchenko's supporters are confident of
a sweeping victory and the government apparatus, which worked hard to rally
support for Mr Yanukovich in last month's vote, has been largely subdued.
However, in southern and eastern regions, state organs remain powerful and
continue to work for Mr Yanukovich's campaign.
In Sevastopol, according to Mr Nikityuk, it is the mayor, appointed by Mr
Kuchma, and the local tax administration chief, appointed by Mr Yanukovich's
government, who have done the most for Mr Yanukovich's campaign. In the
Donbas, powerful business groups allied to Mr Yanukovich have taken the
leading role. Throughout the south and east, elected mayors and city
councils have become more active in supporting Mr Yanukovich.
Pavlo Ignatenko, a member of parliament who runs Mr Yushchenko's campaign
headquarters in Sevastopol, says these councillors are not so much
supporting Mr Yanukovich as "fighting for their personal survival". "Many of
them have done things for which they should be punished by a court of law.
They are in a state of panic," he said. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
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7. YUSHCHENKO LIKELY TO PUSH REFORMS IF ELECTED
Ukraine Opposition Leader Expected to Buoy Economy
EUROPEAN BUSINESS NEWS
By Poul Funder Larsen, Dow Jones Newswires
The Wall Street Journal, NY, NY, Tue, December 21, 2004
KIEV, Ukraine -- Dressed in a dark business suit, Petro Poroshenko hardly
looks the part of a revolutionary just back from the barricades. Only a
bright orange shirt betrays that this Ukrainian entrepreneur and
parliamentary deputy is a fervent supporter of the country's opposition
leader, Viktor Yushchenko.
Mr. Poroshenko is quick to project an image of stability and continuity in
the sphere of macroeconomics, if Mr. Yushchenko takes power, as widely
expected, after Sunday's polls. "The financial system is already
stabilizing, and we will manage to stop the drift toward a banking crisis,"
he says.
As head of the budgetary committee of Verkhovna Rade, Ukraine 's parliament,
Mr. Poroshenko is a key economic-policy maker for the opposition, and a
likely candidate for one of the main economic portfolios in a new cabinet,
if Mr. Yushchenko becomes president.
For his part, Mr. Yushchenko, who advocates closer ties between Ukraine and
the European Union, has vowed fiscal prudence, if he is voted president. So
far, the candidate and his entourage have been fairly tight-lipped, when it
comes to broader economic policy statements, but analysts say Mr.
Yushchenko's track record as Ukrainian prime minister in 2000-2001 bodes
well for rapid economic reform in the country. A major challenge faced by a
new administration will be to decide on whether to reverse a number of
dubious privatization deals struck under departing President Leonid Kuchma,
observers say.
Mr. Poroshenko is adamant that a new Yushchenko government won't resort
to fiscal populism by printing money, or running large budget deficits, to
maintain the loyalty of voters. A Yushchenko administration is committed to
striving toward a balanced budget, Mr. Poroshenko insists. "I think we ought
to be able to adopt a budget with no deficit, or a deficit that is no higher
than 0.5%" of gross domestic product, he says.
Fortunately, the economic backdrop to the current political turbulence is
relatively benign, analysts say. The Ukrainian economy is headed for 12%
annual growth this year, but increased social payouts in the run-up to the
elections means price inflation is expected to clock in at more than 11%, up
from 8% last year. As a result, the overall economic record of current
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's government, however, doesn't
draw rave reviews from analysts.
"The Yanukovych government has been a very lucky government, benefiting
from a favorable pricing situation for exports such as steel and chemicals,"
says Vladimir Dinul, analyst with Foyil Securities New Europe, a Kiev
investment bank.
On Dec. 26, Mr. Yushchenko will again face Mr. Yanukovych, who has been
backed by Mr. Kuchma and most of Ukraine 's powerful financial-industrial
groups. Latest opinion polls show Mr. Yushchenko in a comfortable lead, but
the spectre of vote rigging continues to haunt the electoral process.
While observers expect Mr. Yushchenko to pursue reform of the Ukrainian
economy, considerable uncertainty remains as to how Yushchenkonomics will
look in practice. The economic campaign message of Mr. Yushchenko has
focused on slogans about tax reform and cuts in government bureaucracy, but
also on a vague promise to create five million jobs over the next five-year
period. "I haven't seen anything that you could describe as a clear program
on economic policy," Mr. Dinul says. "At this point we have to judge by what
Yushchenko did as a prime minister."
Mr. Yushchenko's term as prime minister was characterized by overhauls of
the country's inefficient energy sector and the introduction of open
privatization tenders. That record inspires confidence in his continued
commitment to liberalization, observers say. "The market pins its hopes on a
Yushchenko victory, expecting faster progress with structural reforms, more
radical steps to improve corporate transparency and more efficient
protection of minority shareholders' rights," Kiev stockbrokers Dragon
Capital said in a recent report.
Among the likely priorities for a Yushchenko administration is legal reform,
a campaign to combat bureaucracy and corruption in the state apparatus,
and a program to improve the situation for Ukraine 's small and midsize
enterprises, notably in the sphere of taxation, Mr. Dinul says. Overhauling
the tax system is key in both stimulating entrepreneurship and plugging
holes in the budget. "We need to broaden the tax base," Mr. Poroshenko
says. According to figures from the Yushchenko camp the black economy
amounts to 55% of Ukrainian GDP.
Much, however, will depend on the precise realignment of political forces
after the Dec. 26 vote. Mr. Yushchenko's candidacy is backed by a loose
political coalition consisting of three main components: The candidate's own
center-right movement Our Ukraine ; Timoshenko's Bloc, a group of
center-right deputies led by Yulia Timoshenko, a former deputy prime
minister; and the Socialist Party, a social democratic grouping. If Mr.
Yushchenko appoints socialist leader Alexander Moroz as his prime minister,
a move seen as likely by some Ukrainian analysts, reforms are likely to be
gradual and cautious, while a cabinet led by Mr. Timoshenko, the firebrand
of Ukrainian politics, would be expected to move much faster on liberal
reform.
Issues of property redistribution and future privatization could well prove
the most controversial aspects of Mr. Yushchenko's economic policies,
analysts say. During Mr. Kuchma's years in power a number of
financial-industrial groups have gobbled up many prime assets. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.268: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
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8. "'MEDDLING' IN UKRAINE"
Democracy is not an American plot
OP-ED By Michael McFaul, The Washington Post
Washington, D.C. Tuesday, December 21, 2004; Page A25
Events in Ukraine have inspired most people living in the free world.
Ukrainian democrats stood together in the freezing cold to demand from
their government what we citizens of democracies take for granted: the right
to elect their leaders in free and fair elections. But not all observers of
Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" are so elated. Instead of democracy's advance,
some see a U.S.-funded, White House-orchestrated conspiracy to undermine
Ukrainian sovereignty, weaken Russia's sphere of influence and expand
Washington's imperial reach. These skeptics range from presidents Vladimir
Putin of Russia, Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Hugo Chavez of
Venezuela to Republican Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, columnist Patrick
Buchanan, and left-wingers in the Nation and the Guardian. This odd
collection of critics is a little bit right and a whole lot wrong.
Did Americans meddle in the internal affairs of Ukraine? Yes. The American
agents of influence would prefer different language to describe their
activities -- democratic assistance, democracy promotion, civil society
support, etc. -- but their work, however labeled, seeks to influence
political change in Ukraine. The U.S. Agency for International Development,
the National Endowment for Democracy and a few other foundations
sponsored certain U.S. organizations, including Freedom House, the
International Republican Institute, the National Democratic Institute, the
Solidarity Center, the Eurasia Foundation, Internews and several others to
provide small grants and technical assistance to Ukrainian civil society.
The European Union, individual European countries and the Soros-funded
International Renaissance Foundation did the same.
In the run-up to Ukraine's presidential vote this fall, these American and
European organizations concentrated their resources on creating conditions
for free and fair elections. Western organizations provided training and
some direct assistance to the Committee of Ukrainian Voters, Ukraine's
first-rate election-monitoring organization. Western funders pooled
resources to sponsor two exit polls. Western foundations also provided
assistance to independent media. Freedom House and others supported Znayu
and the Freedom of Choice Coalition, whose members included the high-profile
Pora student movement. And through their conferences and publications, these
American organizations supported the flow of knowledge and contacts between
Ukrainian democrats and their counterparts in Slovakia, Croatia, Romania and
Serbia. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe coordinated
with several other European, U.S. and Canadian organizations to organize a
major international monitoring effort of the election process. Formally,
this help was nonpartisan, because the aim was to aid the electoral process.
Yet most of these groups believed that a free and fair election would mean
victory for Viktor Yushchenko. And they were right.
Did the U.S. government fund the Yushchenko campaign directly? Not to
my knowledge. Both the International Republican Institute and the National
Democratic Institute conducted training programs for Ukrainian political
parties, some of which later joined the Yushchenko coalition. But in the
years leading up to the 2004 votes, American ambassadors in Ukraine insisted
that no U.S. government money could be provided to any candidate. Private
sources of external funding and expertise aided the Yushchenko campaign.
Likewise, U.S. and Russian public relations consultants worked with the
Yushchenko campaign, just as U.S. and Russian public relations people were
brought in to help his opponent, Viktor Yanukovych. In future elections
Ukrainian officials might enforce more controls on foreign resources. But
this kind of private, for-profit campaign advice occurs everywhere now,
and Americans no longer control the market.
Did American money bring about the Orange Revolution? Absolutely not.
The combination of a weak, divided and corrupt ancien régime and a united,
mobilized and highly motivated opposition produced Ukraine's democratic
breakthrough. Westerners did not create or control the Ukrainian democratic
movement but rather supported its cause on the margins. Moreover, democracy
promotion groups do not have a recipe for revolution. If the domestic
conditions aren't ripe, there will be no democratic breakthrough, no matter
how crafted the technical assistance or how strategically invested the small
grants. In fact, Western democracy promoters work in most developing
democracies in the world, yet democratic transitions are rare.
Do these American democracy assistance groups carry out the will of the Bush
administration? Not really. One of the greatest myths about U.S. democracy
efforts is that a senior White House official carefully choreographs the
efforts of the National Endowment for Democracy or Freedom House. While
they are perhaps supportive philosophically, policymakers at the White House
and the State Department have had almost nothing to do with the design or
implementation of American democracy assistance programs. In some countries,
they clash with one another. I witnessed this as the National Democratic
Institute's representative in Moscow during the last days of the Soviet
Union: "They" -- the U.S. policymakers -- supported Mikhail Gorbachev; "we"
worked with Democratic Russia, Gorbachev's opponents. The same divide is
present in many countries today.
Does this kind of intervention violate international norms? Not anymore.
There was a time when championing state sovereignty was a progressive idea,
since the advance of statehood helped destroy empires. But today those who
revere the sovereignty of the state above all else often do so to preserve
autocracy, while those who champion the sovereignty of the people are the
new progressives. In Ukraine, external actors who helped the people be heard
were not violating the sovereignty of the Ukrainian people; they were
defending it. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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The writer is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and an associate
professor of political science at Stanford University.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A15131-2004Dec20.html
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
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9. "A DINNER IN UKRAINE MADE FOR AGATHA CHRISTIE"
By C. J. Chivers, The New York Times
New York, NY, Monday, December 20, 2004
KIEV, Ukraine, Dec. 18 - The presidential candidate appeared for a hushed
meeting an hour before midnight on Sept. 5, arriving in a black
Mercedes-Benz at an exclusive dacha outside the capital here. He was
accompanied by a campaign manager. He had left his bodyguards behind.
Waiting for the candidate, Viktor A. Yushchenko, were two leaders of the
Security Service of Ukraine, or S.B.U., the country's successor to the
K.G.B., including Gen. Ihor P. Smeshko, its chairman. Mr. Yushchenko was
leading in the presidential race. He had sought the meeting to discuss,
among other things, death threats against him.
The four men drank beer and ate boiled crayfish from a common bowl, as well
as a salad made of tomatoes, cucumbers and corn. Later, they selected vodka
and meats, and then cognacs for a last drink. When the meeting ended about 2
a.m., Mr. Yushchenko went home to bed and began, his supporters say, to die.
More than three months later, the dinner at the dacha has assumed the
character of an Agatha Christie mystery mixed with a cold war spy tale. Mr.
Yushchenko, his doctors say, had been poisoned. But how? And by whom? In
interviews with investigators, members of the Yushchenko campaign,
toxicologists, a son-in-law of Ukraine's president and three of the four men
at the dinner, a picture emerges of confusion and frustration at a criminal
investigation laden with complexity.
The day after Mr. Yushchenko's late meal, which a Russian newspaper has
called "The Last Supper," he was gravely ill. By the time he had been
stabilized and stood in the Ukrainian Parliament on Sept. 21 to accuse the
administration of the departing president, Leonid D. Kuchma, of plotting to
kill him ("Do not ask who is next," he said. "Every one of us will be the
next."), his face was erupting in a grotesque mask of cysts. He was also
racked with pain and weakened by what his doctors in Vienna now call a
surreptitious dose of TCDD, the most toxic of the organic compounds
known as dioxins, and a contaminant in Agent Orange.
That much is known. But the most popular theory - that Mr. Yushchenko was
poisoned at the dacha - contains flaws, strong enough that even his own
supporters raise questions about it. And as investigators seek deeper
insight into the case, they say a chief obstacle has been Mr. Yushchenko
himself, who has used the poisoning almost as a theme in his campaign, but
has not fully cooperated with the authorities, even as the trail of his
would-be assassin grows cold.
Ukraine is headed for a repeat presidential election on Dec. 26 that is
likely to decide the direction of this nation of 48 million as it continues
its evolution from a post-Soviet state. But since the political crisis set
off by the disputed Nov. 21 election was defused by court and parliamentary
decisions to hold a new race, this dinner has overshadowed almost all else.
With a plot that would make Christie proud, much of Ukraine's leadership
finds itself in the role of suspect, including General Smeshko, the S.B.U.
chairman, who met with a Western reporter for what he described as the first
time in a 32-year career. "The main message is this: Our security service
did not do Mr. Yushchenko any harm, and did not try to do him any harm,"
he said. "This we know for sure. All other versions we will check."
When asked how he reacted to being mentioned publicly as a suspect, General
Smeshko, who has two young sons, answered with a question. "How would
you like it if your kids asked you, 'Did you do it, Dad?'" he said, locking
eyes with a reporter for several long moments. He added: "It is really
painful. We will do everything to know the truth. Basically, this is a case
for the dignity of our whole service."
To achieve that, the S.B.U. must navigate the demands of Ukraine's most
intense criminal investigation while weathering a popular belief that it may
have been involved in the crime. It faces a case in which the principal
theories are many, varied and so far impossible to prove wrong. And politics
are visible at every turn.
Depending on who is talking, Mr. Yushchenko was poisoned either by his
enemies in Mr. Kuchma's government, or by members of his own inner circle.
Alternately, he was poisoned by Russia's intelligence services, or by
organized crime figures working for any of the above.
Some say the failed assassin was Vladimir N. Satsyuk, General Smeshko's
former first deputy and a member of Parliament. He was the host of the
dinner, at his private dacha. The food was prepared by his personal cook.
He resigned from the S.B.U. last week. (Officially, the cases are unrelated;
Mr. Satsyuk resigned after a court ruled he could not hold both an executive
position in government and a seat in Parliament.)
Mr. Satsyuk bristles at the subject. "It deals with my honor and the honor
of my family," he said. "I am ready to cooperate in order to find the real
cause."
Finding the real cause seems unlikely for now. A thorough investigation
would require a reconstruction of Mr. Yushchenko's meetings, movements
and meals, but Mr. Yushchenko, busy with his campaign, has not been
of much help.
Volodymyr Sivkovych, chairman of a parliamentary commission that has
reopened its investigation into Mr. Yushchenko's illness, complained that
Mr. Yushchenko has declined even to give a proper statement to his
commission or to investigators. Nor have Ukrainian investigators received
the latest test results from Vienna, which they say are essential evidence.
David V. Zhvaniya, the Yushchenko campaign manager who arranged the dacha
meeting and attended it himself, said he and Mr. Yushchenko had refused to
appear because they had no faith in the commission. Mr. Sivkovych, he said,
is aligned with Mr. Kuchma or Prime Minister Viktor F. Yanukovich, the rival
to Mr. Yushchenko in the presidential race. Mr. Sivkovych called that
assertion "lies."
Law enforcement officials also remain frustrated, even after the former
general prosecutor, whom Mr. Yushchenko did not trust, was fired this month.
The investigation has been reopened by the new general prosecutor, with
support from the S.B.U. But Lt. Gen. Igor V. Drizhchany, who is in charge
of the S.B.U.'s legal department, said investigators are still learning of
medical assessments through the news media.
"All the political goals have been achieved," he said. "But those who most
need the evidence - the people who must catch a murderer - do not have it."
He continued: "I cannot reproach anybody, because I know that the
presidential race is taking place. But these are still the facts."
Mr. Yushchenko declined to be interviewed on this subject; through a
spokeswoman he said he relied on private medical information because he
did not trust the government. "I wanted the first word to be said by the
doctors," he said in a statement. "Only then would come the turn of the
investigators."
One senior law enforcement official said that after doctors found dioxin in
Mr. Yushchenko's blood, the candidate met informally on Dec. 16 with a newly
assigned prosecutor and pledged to cooperate, but only after the election.
Without his cooperation, the case has taken the form of theories, and for
the news media the most popular has been the dinner at the dacha. But as
details and a greater understanding emerge, that version remains open to
question.
First, General Smeshko said, Mr. Yushchenko was ill and in pain before the
meeting, and had postponed the dacha visit a day because of exhaustion and a
backache. Mr. Zhvaniya confirmed that, but said Mr. Yushchenko has a history
of back troubles, and his pain the previous night might not have been
related to poison.
A second, more intriguing, complication is that toxicologists say that after
a person is contaminated with dioxins, it typically takes three days to two
weeks before symptoms appear. Mr. Yushchenko was racked with pain hours
after the dacha dinner, which understandably cast initial suspicion on the
meal. But the theory was weakened this month when doctors in Vienna
announced that the poison was dioxin; his would be the only known case
of a dioxin acting that fast.
Dr. Arnold Schecter, a specialist in dioxin contamination at the University
of Texas, and co-editor of "Dioxins and Health," a medical reference, said
it was possible but highly unlikely that Mr. Yushchenko was poisoned on
Sept. 5. "It doesn't make sense, medically," he said. "I would go back 14
days before that."
Mr. Zhvaniya agreed. "It is a stupid theory," he said. "The poisoning could
have happened at any moment. He was always touring. He met hundreds of
people in hundreds of places. To link it to that evening can be called only
paranoia." Mr. Zhvaniya said that if Mr. Yushchenko had been intentionally
poisoned, he believed it probably occurred while he was in the Crimea in
late August. He also said the most likely suspect was an organized crime
figure, perhaps collaborating with Russia and members of Mr. Kuchma's
administration.
Mr. Zhvaniya, a member of Parliament and a commission on organized crime,
said he had listened to a taped conversation of a Russian crime figure
offering to help a member of the Kuchma administration. "He more than once
offered his services in poisoning, or removal," he said. When pressed for a
copy of the audiotape, he declined. "After the election," he said.
Russia's special services scoff at suggestions of their involvement. "I
consider it below my dignity to comment on," said Boris N. Labusov, the
senior spokesman of the S.V.R., Russia's foreign intelligence service.
Mr. Kuchma's family, which also has said it was not involved, said the dacha
theory was foolish. Any government wanting to kill an opponent, the family's
line of thinking goes, would not try it at a meeting with government
officials. "I think they are not kamikazes," said Viktor M. Pinchuk, Mr.
Kuchma's son-in-law and a member of Parliament.
Elements of the popular dacha theory are also inconclusive or wrong. Among
them are suggestions that Mr. Yushchenko was vulnerable because it was the
only time his guards did not check his food - a function of questionable
value for a poison that is said to be odorless and tasteless, and takes days
to manifest itself. The news media have also written, based on a comment by
one of Mr. Yushchenko's doctors, that dioxin might have been slipped into
his soup. No soup was served at the dacha that night, the three men who
dined with Mr. Yushchenko said.
Mr. Zhvaniya also dismissed statements by Mr. Yushchenko's wife, Kateryna
Chumechenko, who is an American citizen, that she tasted something medicinal
on his lips after he returned from the dacha. "She is a normal woman, and to
her with the words K.G.B. and S.B.U. comes an unreasonable reaction, the
more so because she was brought up in the United States," he said.
(Toxicologists say dioxins are tasteless, although Dr. Schecter pointed out
the provenance of this assertion is uncertain; he knew of no one who had
ever tried tasting them.)
Still, public attention remains focused on the late-night meal, frustrating
investigators who say a larger window of time needs to be examined, and
infuriating Mr. Satsyuk, the host, who challenged the opposition leader to
accuse him to his face. "I am ready to meet live on the air with Mr.
Yushchenko," he said. "I would like him, looking into my eyes, to say that
he was poisoned at my dacha. I can do this at any press conference at any
time." -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.268: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
=========================================================
10. UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION DEPUTY SAYS INTERIOR MINISTRY
HELPED RIG PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
UNIAN news agency, Kiev, in Ukrainian 1536 gmt 20 Dec 04
BBC Monitoring Service,UK, in English, Monday, Dec 20, 2004
KIEV - People's Deputy Mykola Katerynchuk, who is Viktor Yushchenko's
authorized representative in the nationwide constituency, has said that in
May this year Ukrainian Interior Minister Mykola Bilokon issued an illegal
order which helped falsify the presidential election in Ukraine. Katerynchuk
made the statement at today's news conference in Kiev, a UNIAN
correspondent reports.
Katerynchuk demonstrated order No 571 "On the procedure for registering
and deregistering the place of residence of individuals in Ukraine", which
was issued on 26 May 2004. Under the order, it was allowed to register
citizens who stay or reside on Ukrainian territory on a temporary basis
without leaving a special mark in their passports, but only leaving a mark
on a special slip that was used as a passport insert.
"This order runs counter to the Ukrainian Supreme Council resolution on
passports," Katerynchuk said. Since it became possible not to leave any
special marks in passports, internal affairs agencies submitted voters'
lists to district electoral commissions which included both those who
resided on the territory of the respective polling station permanently and
those who stayed there on a temporary basis, he said. In particular,
invitations were sent (to a polling station) for 150 people in Kiev who
allegedly lived in just one flat, Katerynchuk said.
In this connection, Katerynchuk pointed out that Viktor Yushchenko's
representatives would be demanding that the Central Electoral Commission
[CEC] should give a special explanation to territorial and district
electoral commissions thus letting them know that the discrepancy between
the place of residence registered in a passport and the place of residence
registered in voters' lists is not a technical error. Yushchenko's election
headquarters will also demand that the CEC should ask internal affairs
agencies to provide it with the lists of people who stay on the territory of
the respective polling station on a temporary basis.
According to Katerynchuk, not only absentee ballots were used for
fraudulent purposes but also the fact that some voters were registered in
several places of temporary stay simultaneously and were on the voters'
list but did not have any special marks in their passports.
The deputy also expressed the opinion that the election fraud could be on
a much bigger scale because of this order. He expressed the hope that
Yushchenko's election HQ members would manage to update at least part of
voters' lists by 26 December and cross out the names of the individuals who
were put on these lists several times at various polling stations. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
Names for the distribution list always welcome
=========================================================
11. US DEPUTY SECRETARY OF STATE ARMITAGE TO LEAD U.S.
DELEGATION TO UKRAINE IN LATE DECEMBER
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, December 21, 2004 (15:36)
KYIV - The United States' Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage
will pay an official visit to Ukraine from December 29 to 31. Markian
Lubkivskyi, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Ministry's press
service, announced this to journalists.
According to him, the delegation led by Armitage will include Assistant
Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Elizabeth Jones,
Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs Paul Kelly, and
Assistant Secretary of State for Diplomatic Security Frank Taylor.
The American side intends to meet with President Leonid Kuchma,
Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, and the two presidential candidates:
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and the Our Ukraine coalition's leader
Viktor Yuschenko. The delegation plans to familiarize itself with the
situation in Ukraine following the presidential elections.
Armitage visited Ukraine in March. During the March visit, Armitage
discussed Ukrainian-American bilateral relations with Kuchma and
discussed the fight against international terrorism and Ukrainian-American
relations with Foreign Affairs Minister Kostiantyn Hryschenko. -30-
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
=========================================================
12. UKRAINE: CEC OUTLINES PROCEDURE FOR TEC'S TO SEND
PRELIMINARY REPORTS ON REVOTE
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, December 20, 2004
KYIV - CEC Outlines Procedure For TECs To Send Preliminary Reports
On Revote The Central Electoral Commission (CEC) has worked out the
procedure in accordance with which the territorial election commissions
(TECs) must send preliminary reports about the course of voting during the
repeated second round of presidential elections and its results to the CEC.
The procedure was established at the CEC meeting on Monday, December
20. As CEC chair Yaroslav Davydovych put it, the TECs must report on
the number of issued absentee ballots with the help of the Elections
information-and-analytical software from 10:00 am to 4:00 pm on
December 25. By 8 pm, these data are to be summed up and sent back
to TECs as well as posted on the CEC's website.
>From 8:00 to 9:00 am, the CEC is supposed to receive reports from polling
stations that the voting began and will publish this information at 9:30 am.
Then the CEC will be receiving reports as to how voting in constituencies is
going on (these data are to be repeated in teletype and telegraph messages).
The third and the fourth announcements - about the number of voters on the
lists and the voter turnout - are to be made at 11:00 am and 3:00 pm.
Reports on the voter turnout as the polls close at 8:00 pm must reach the
CEC not later than 10:00 pm. By 11:00 pm they are to be tabulated and
announced.
Reports will be coming to the CEC via an electronic system and also in
government telegrams. Six teletype machines will be installed on the second
floor of the CEC's building at 1 Lesi Ukrainky Square to receive these
telegrams.
Davydovych also said that the CEC staff would be reinforced and receive
additional consultations and training. Besides, the CEC ordered local
authorities to assist district election commissions (DECs) in sending data
to the CEC.
As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the CEC has decided to tally and
publish the preliminary election results it will receive in telegrams from
constituencies during the re-run of this year's presidential elections
before it receives the election-result protocols bearing "wet stamps."
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER THIRTEEN
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
13. "ORANGE AND AUSCHWITZ"
OP-ED By Bohdan Koczor, Chicago Tribune
Chicago, Illinois, Tue, 21 December 2004
I have a name. I also have a number. My parents gave me my name. It's a
good Ukrainian name, and I have always been proud of it, and of my people.
It wasn't always good to be a Ukrainian, however.
I was just a teenager in western Ukraine when World War II broke out.
The Soviets came claiming they would liberate us. Instead they began
liquidating us. The Germans drove them out. They also said they had come
to free us from the Bolsheviks.
Then they began to execute us, to exploit us, even to export us as slave
laborers to the Third Reich. Too many people still bury Ukraine's losses
among those of the Soviet Union or Poland. They pretend Ukrainians did not
exist. We proved otherwise. We resisted. Ukraine's anti-Nazi and anti-Soviet
movement would carry on an armed struggle for our people's freedom well into
the 1950s.
People forget all that. When they speak of Ukrainians and the war, they
refer to us only as collaborators or camp guards. I was in a camp, in fact
several. But I wasn't there as a guard. In fact, that's where I got my
number. It's 154754. The Nazis gave it to me.
They made it easy for me to remember, by tattooing it on my forearm. I was
19 years old when they did that to me at Auschwitz. They brought me there
because I was a member of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists. I
know it has become politically correct to label Ukrainian nationalists as
anti-Semitic Nazi collaborators. That is not true.
We fought for a free Ukraine against all those who tried to extinguish our
kind. Another Ukrainian there was Andriy Yushchenko, the father of Viktor
Yushchenko, Ukraine's next president, I hope.
Yes, there were some Ukrainians who collaborated, out of fear, out of greed,
out of prejudice. But I saw such scum among every nation represented among
those at Auschwitz. I also saw them in the other concentration camps the
Nazis carted me off to, including Mathausen, Melk and Ebensee. Many
Ukrainian patriots, men and women, perished at the hands of the Nazis. Only
a few were lucky enough to survive and to find a new life in the West, even
as our homeland fell under Soviet
occupation, again.
In 1991 I celebrated the collapse of the Soviet empire and Ukraine's
independence. I believed that, finally, Ukraine would rejoin Europe, become
a normal country. That did not happen. Ukraine remained under the grip of
former communists whose corrupt rule wreaked havoc on the land.
Like many others in our diaspora, I began to despair. Would Ukraine ever be
free? And then came our "Orange Revolution." In the last few weeks hundreds
of thousands of Ukrainians have marched and mobilized to demonstrate that
they will have their freedom. I am proud to see my people stand up for
liberty, unmistakably showing the whole world that they will not tolerate
more of what they have endured in the 13 years since independence
supposedly came.
Last month Ukrainians watched in horror as the old guard tried to steal the
election from the people. The nation made sure that didn't happen. On Sunday
another election will confirm that Ukra ine's people want to be in Europe,
not sequestered in some post-Soviet reserve on the margins of civilization.
There are some who fear this resurgence of Ukrainian nationalism, who
already have begun to slur this movement by pulling out the oldest and
dirtiest canard in the book, claiming Ukrainian nationalists are
intrinsically anti-Semitic.
We weren't, and the Orange Revolution isn't. I affirm that as a Holocaust
survivor imprisoned at Auschwitz because I was a Ukrainian nationalist.
Tomorrow's democratic Ukraine will be a home to all who contribute to
Ukrainian freedom today. -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring]
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 268: ARTICLE NUMBER FOURTEEN
=========================================================
14. "A PARTY FROM THE OLD LIFE"
The Ukrainian party of power faces reality of being in the opposition
By Yehor Sobolev, Zerkalo Nedeli, Kiev, in Russian 18 Dec 04; p 1, 2
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Tue, Dec 21, 2004
The Ukrainian party effectively in power for the past three years must face
the reality of moving into opposition, an influential weekly writes. The
United Social Democratic Party of Ukraine tried to save face by sticking
with the current presidential candidate representing the authorities,
because "betrayal would only deepen the problems", according to the leader
of the party's faction in parliament. But the author says one of the party's
biggest problems is that its leader, Viktor Medvedchuk, is unwilling to
allow an open discussion of failures and there appears to be no-one both
able and willing to replace him at this point.
The following is the text of the article by Yehor Sobolev, entitled "A party
from the old life", published in Zerkalo Nedeli on 18 December, subheadings
have been inserted editorially:
MOVING INTO OPPOSITION
Yesterday [17 December], a specially formed working group within the United
Social Democratic Party of Ukraine [USDPU] was to meet for the first time to
discuss the USDPU's new strategy. The goal - to prepare the party for moving
into opposition. The idea sounds intelligent. The question lies in whether
the top echelons of the USDPU are able to realize it.
There are quite a few people in the USDPU who understand that the end of the
political system which was destroyed by the orange revolution is the end of
the party in its current state. The USDPU has been the party of power over
the last several years. They received hundreds of posts at the mid and top
level. They built their businesses into it. More effectively than others,
they used the main instruments of policy in this system - corruption and
collective guarantees. In the person of their leader they became a symbol of
the system. The most brutal schemes of the outgoing political regime in the
past three years have been connected to [USDPU leader] Viktor Medvedchuk -
irrespective of whether or not he thought them up.
Now confusion and fear reign within the party. Many people are seriously
discussing the threat of a ban on the USDPU, which would come, in their
opinion, from [opposition figure] Yuliya Tymoshenko. Others fear for their
posts and businesses. A mass exodus of bureaucrats has not yet begun. Six
MPs, kicked out for quitting the faction, are the only current losses of the
USDPU at a high level. But people in the party know this is only the
beginning. Especially large losses are expected in the regions where
governors are members of the USDPU. The party which has ingrown with the
authorities could experience a real crash there. In western Ukraine and in
some eastern regions, for example in Sumy Region, the lower levels of the
organization have begun to disappear.
As a rule, this happens on the initiative of local leaders who disband party
cells. USDPU structures in western Ukraine were practically the only ones
that really worked on the campaign for the candidate representing the
authorities [Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych]. As a result, they bore the
brunt of negative relations from the side of their compatriots, the absolute
majority of whom are for [opposition leader] Viktor Yushchenko. Now the
pressure of public opinion and dim career prospects are becoming unbearable
for many. There are not yet any statistics on people quitting the central
office. But they agree there with the opinion that in the coming months the
415,000-strong party will fundamentally thin out.
SAVING A LITTLE FACE
Against the background of confusion bordering on despair, the proposal was
raised at a meeting of the political council last Friday [17 December] to
disclaim Viktor Yanukovych. [USDPU parliamentary faction leader] Leonid
Kravchuk put an end to such talk. He cooled his party members by declaring
that betrayal would only deepen the problems. As a result, the political
council confirmed its support for the leader of the Party of Regions
[Yanukovych] in the so-called third round [the re-run of the second round of
the presidential election]. Part of the USDPU organization has again got
involved in the Yanukovych campaign.
Although there is neither money nor the former confidence of victory in the
Yanukovych HQ, the help of the USDPU in eastern and southern regions was
accepted. (By the way, there is information that in the middle of this week,
the HQ received serious financial support. And it is being linked to a
flight by the prime minister's aircraft to Rostov-na-Donu [in Russia], which
took place over the weekend...[ellipsis as published])
>From the political point of view the USDPU's bet on the losing candidate
looks correct. First, the party saved face. They would never have been
accepted in the Yushchenko camp anyway. The transition to a "neutral" status
like Working Ukraine or the National Democratic Party would have smelled
foul in the case of the USDPU. Second, Mr Yanukovych continues to represent
the powerful Donetsk clan. With the lack of possible political partners that
the USDPU is now facing, they'll be more comfortable being together in the
trenches. Especially if the new authorities initiate court proceedings over
suspicious deals or abuse of power during the elections. Those responding in
either case will be the current partners in the campaign.
But living through Mr Yanukovych's defeat in honour is the least of the
USDPU's problems. How is a party with an odious leadership, shady reputation
and peculiar ways of attracting sympathizers to find itself in a Ukraine
which appears to have moved along the path of east-European democracy?
Under these circumstances, how is it to keep its faction in parliament, with
an election in just 15 months and competition promising to be fierce?
Finally, from where does one begin to move towards these goals?
THE PROBLEM OF POLITICAL POSITION
The political council has adopted a programme for 2005. It obliges each
member of the USDPU to turn in a written list of contact information for
five people whom he has got to sympathize with the party. That is an
interesting organizational idea. But the USDPU's problems are not in the
sphere of organization, but in their political position. And there are not
yet any answers to these challenges, or conviction that they can provide
them.
Moving to the opposition is a logical and theoretically effective idea.
Speaking at the political council, one of those in favour of this idea - the
leader of the Kiev organization of the USDPU, Vadym Misyura, told those
gathered that the party had come into a "golden age", and he earned the
nervous laughs of the businessmen. They are right about something there.
Such a scheme now only looks good on paper.
First, the subject under discussion is opposition to a president who is
promising to be fairly successful. This means that his opponents must be a
head stronger in topics that are important to the population, and get ahead
of those in power with intelligent initiatives and demands. Who in the USDPU
faction can do that? [MPs] Nestor Shufrych and Ihor Shurma? The matter does
not lie with leaders. The very system of the USDPU's work with people, built
on administrative dictatorship or on charity (including in its most
"peculiar" forms), is little capable of representing the party to lobby the
interests of people.
Second, the opposition must be convincing. People must believe that these
politicians just need more posts, and then they will immediately fix
everything. Losing power, the USDPU saves its image. Mr Medvedchuk [who
controls some media outlets that are often quite biased in their coverage],
speaking of a lack of freedom of speech would look just as convincing as
Hryhoriy Surkis [a big businessman] demanding freedom for small business.
A need to change leaders - this is the problem that, if not fixed, will
hamper the USDPU in moving anywhere. In their current circumstances, this
thought looks utopian. But in a system that Ukraine has turned its face on,
replacing the discredited people who have steered the 400,000-strong party
is an appropriate reaction.
LEADER FAILS TO DISCUSS MISTAKES
So far, the USDPU is a long way from such discussion. Although last Friday
many members of the political council were waiting for at least an analysis
of mistakes, if not for an apology. Since the day he entered the
presidential administration, Mr Medvedchuk has forced the USDPU to follow
his logic, convincing everyone with his personal authority that everything
would be all right. In most cases he was believed. But now the broken
carriage lies at everyone's feet. Still, the leader of the USDPU refrained
from a public discussion of his errors which have become the errors of the
party. Stating: "What happened, has happened", he made it impossible to
contest. No-one expressed protest publicly. The impossibility of an open
discussion of the issues is only part of the USDPU's problems.
A somewhat more difficult question is, "Who, if not he?" The party is built
in such a way that there is no-one to replace the current leader. First, Mr
Medvedchuk means money. And the party is not used to living without it.
Second, Mr Medvedchuk means business-like qualities. No-one in the
USDPU circle can compare to him in organizational skills, a drive to lead
and aggression in achieving his goals. The only one who can theoretically be
considered Mr Medvedchuk's competition is Mr Kravchuk. He has great
experience and the best reputation of the USDPU - both within and without -
on his side. But he will not want to get into a fight with him, and he
can't. And Mr Medvedchuk will not give up without a fight.
The three weeks of revolution which took place in the minds of Ukrainians at
the end of November gave the green light to many processes which are capable
of helping the nation to blossom. One of them is the creation of a new type
of politician who will know for certain that their main resource is not the
dependence of bureaucrats or shadowy money, but the trust of voters. From
this point of view our politics awaits a revolution far more radical and
harsh than the orange one.
One can predict that by 2006 the lion's share of names now tossed about will
be forgotten and no fewer will be made known. That includes the party as
well. Perhaps none of the forces known now looks capable of life in the
future, from the People's Movement to the Communist Party of Ukraine.
But their future depends directly on how far they can break with cardinal
changes in political councils and ideologies. It looks like this will be
hardest of all for the USDPU. -30- [Action Ukraine Monitoring]
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