"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
DEDICATED TO THE "FIRST TEACHER"
Millions of people are thankful that Varvara Tymofiyivna
Yushchenko lived to see the triumph of her son, Viktor Yushchenko.
She endured famine, war, her husband Andriy Yushchenko's
imprisonment in concentration camps, the national ruin,
and change of epochs. [article fifteen]
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" - Number 423
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net
Washington, D.C. and Kyiv, Ukraine, FRIDAY, February 4, 2005
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. UKRAINE'S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS PICK YOUR TEAM
CAREFULLY AND PRIME MINISTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT POWER
AP Interview with Ukraine Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn
By Mara D. Bellaby, AP Worldstream, Kiev, Ukraine, Fri, Feb 04, 2005
2. UKRAINE'S PARLIAMENT POSTPONES CONFIRMATION
HEARING ON PRIME MINISTER-NOMINEE YULIA TYMOSHENKO
Natasha Lisova, AP Worldstream, Kyiv, Ukraine, Feb 3, 2005
3. UKRAINE MUST PRESS FOR EU AND NATO MEMBERSHIP
INTERVIEW with Boris Tarasyuk by Yuri Kulikov
Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Tue, February 1, 2005
4. YUSHCHENKO TO COME TO NATO FOR SUMMIT WITH BUSH
Reuters, Brussels, Belgium, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
5. UKRAINE'S NEW GOVT TO PRIORITISE INTEGRATION INTO EUROPE
ITAR-TASS, Moscow, Russia, Thu, Feb 3, 2005
6. "UKRAINE BANGS EU MEMBERSHIP DRUM"
ANALYSIS: By Gareth Harding, Chief European Correspondent
United Press International (UPI), Brussels, Belgium, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
7. "UKRAINE: NATO'S NEW EUROPE PROBLEM"
ANALYSIS: by Robin Shepherd
United Press International, Kiev, Ukraine, Wed, February 2, 2005
8. UKRAINE: "DIRECT AND REAL THREATS"
By Yevhen Mahda, Glavred, Kiev, Ukraine, in Russian. 27 Jan 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Jan 30, 2005
9. UKRAINE LEADER PREPARES TO DUMP GOVERNMENT OLD GUARD
By Ron Popeski, Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
10. "EUROPE IS STARTING TO DANCE TO THE BUSH TUNE"
COMMENTARY: by Danielle Pletka
Financial Times, London, UK, Friday, February 4 2005
11. "RUSSIAN OUTREACH"
OP-ED: by Steven Pifer, Baltimore Sun, Baltimore, MD, 28 Jan 2005
12. UKRAINE 'SOLD CRUISE MISSILES TO IRAN, CHINA'
By Tom Warner in Kiev, Financial Times, London, UK, Thu, Feb 3 2005
13. BLACK MARKET ANXIETIES REVIVED ON UKRAINE ARMS
Guy Dinmore and Tom Warner, Financial Times, London, UK, Fri, Feb 4 2005
14. UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL SAYS INVESTIGATION INTO REPORTED
SALE OF NUCLEAR-CAPABLE MISSILES TO IRAN BEGAN A YEAR AGO
By Aleksandar Vasovic, AP Worldstream, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, Feb 04, 2005
15. "FIRST TEACHER"
Millions of people are thankful that Varvara Tymofiyivna
Yushchenko lived to see the triumph of her son, Viktor Yushchenko
Editors: The Day Weekly Digest in English, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, Feb 1, 2005
16. CRIMEAN TARTAR FIGURE OPPOSES MONUMENT TO STALIN
Interfax-Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
17. "THE SPECTER OF STALIN IS HAUNTING THE CRIMEA"
By Mykyta Kasyanenko, Simferopol
The Day Weekly Digest in English, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, Feb 1, 2005
==========================================================
1. UKRAINE'S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS PICK YOUR TEAM
CAREFULLY AND PRIME MINISTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT POWER
AP Interview with Ukraine Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn
By Mara D. Bellaby, AP Worldstream, Kiev, Ukraine, Fri, Feb 04, 2005
KIEV - The speaker of Ukraine's parliament has two messages for new
President Viktor Yushchenko: Pick your team carefully, and do not harbor
any illusions about who is really in control.
In an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, speaker Volodymyr
Lytvyn said Yulia Tymoshenko will be a major force to contend with once
parliament confirms her as prime minister, which lawmakers were expected
to do on Friday. "She will have a lot of powers, even under the current
constitution," said Lytvyn, who leads the factitious 450-member parliament.
Tymoshenko was one of the key figures in last year's massive protests, but
her penchant for provocative statements and the wide animosity toward her
in Ukraine's Russian-speaking east are likely to make her a controversial
premier. The first-ever woman to be prime minister in the former Soviet
republic, Tymoshenko could also become the most powerful person to hold
the job. Under constitutional changes adopted at the height of last year's
political protests, many presidential powers will pass from the presidency
to the parliament - and the prime minister - as early as this fall.
Tymoshenko's Fatherland party criticized the changes, calling them an
attempt by ex-President Leonid Kuchma's supporters to hold onto power in
the case of a Yushchenko victory. Now she stands to benefit most from them.
"Yulia Vladimirovna (Tymoshenko) should be interested in these
constitutional changes coming into force on schedule ... because then the
prime minister will become the central figure," Lytvyn said.
Lytvyn, who at one time served as former President Leonid Kuchma's chief
of staff, warned that choosing a team was his former boss's biggest
failing - one he said Yushchenko should try to avoid. "It was the main
mistake," he said. He did not elaborate further.
He also questioned whether Yushchenko would be able to maintain his fragile
coalition which brought together Socialists, reformers and nationalists, all
of whom were fed up by alleged corruption under Kuchma. "I wouldn't
exclude that because of political appointments, the Socialists will, sooner
or later, move into the opposition," Lytvyn said.
Lytvyn's People's Agrarian Party has 33 members in parliament and its
membership list keeps growing. Given his popularity, Lytvyn is fully
expected to remain speaker of the Verkhovna Rada until parliamentary
elections in 2006.
Widely respected in Ukraine for his efforts to help mediate during the
election crisis while appearing to remain above the fray, he said it was
time to move beyond the divisive events that brought his ex-Soviet republic
to the brink of conflict. "We should already stop struggling against
someone," Lytvyn said. "We must start living for something, for the country,
for society."
Lytvyn said the broad proposals that Tymoshenko presented to parliament
should not be called a platform yet. On Wednesday, Tymoshenko sent law-
makers a broad outline of her government proposals, including ensuring free
medical care, protecting intellectual property rights, converting the
military to full contract service by 2010, reforming Ukraine's corrupt
judicial system and changing the nation's image abroad.
"There is just a list of priorities, you can consider it like a campaign
program," he said. But he was forgiving: "We only just got out of a
revolution. There hasn't been time yet." He rejected the possibility that
Ukraine might suffer new mass protests if Yushchenko's government fails to
achieve its ambitious goals, but he also suggested that Ukraine must remain
on guard.
"The election of 2004, it wasn't yet the victory of democracy," he said.
"The point of no return will only be passed in 2006" after parliamentary
elections.
Widely considered a possible future presidential candidate, Lytvyn - known
for his silver hair and quick smile - said he had no plans to run. But he
warned that the country needed "politicians who make concessions to their
political ambitions." -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
==========================================================
2. UKRAINE'S PARLIAMENT POSTPONES CONFIRMATION
HEARING ON PRIME MINISTER-NOMINEE YULIA TYMOSHENKO
Natasha Lisova, AP Worldstream, Kyiv, Ukraine, Feb 3, 2005
KIEV - Parliament closed its session without considering Yulia Tymoshenko's
nomination for prime minister, delaying the vote as lawmakers jockeyed over
other key Cabinet positions for President Viktor Yushchenko's new
government. Deputy parliament speaker Adam Martinyk cited "heated
consultations" for the delay Thursday, but did not elaborate. Lawmakers will
reconvene on Friday, he said.
Lawmakers said she should easily get a simple majority of Ukraine's 450
members of parliament to win confirmation, but problems arose over how to
distribute the remaining new jobs among Yushchenko's fragile coalition of
Socialists, nationalists and reformers. "We should find a compromise so that
the four opposition leaders who stood together on Independence Square and
their teams will be represented in government to a significant degree,"
Yushchenko' ally Mykola Tomenko said.
He was referring to the main leaders of the Orange Revolution mass
protests - Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz and
Anatoliy Kinakh, a former prime minister who heads a party of business
leaders. The protests paved the way for Yushchenko's victory in a fiercely
contested presidential race that took two elections to settle.
Mykola Rudkovskiy, a Socialist, said his party was holding out because
"taking part ... in the government is possible only if we can really
influence policy." He predicted the disagreements would be resolved by
Friday. Among the jobs still on the bargaining table were agriculture
minister, transport minister and several governors in regions where
Socialists have strong support. In Ukraine, all governors are presidential
appointees.
Allies of losing presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych criticized
Yushchenko's team for letting their internal conflicts delay the new
government. "I am embarrassed for them," said lawmaker Nestor Shufrych. "I
think that today, the new government should have shown its unity, but they
showed their greed for official positions and government resources."
If Tymoshenko is approved, Yushchenko is expected to immediately sign an
order naming his Cabinet. Before the vote, Tymoshenko plans to formally
present her government program to lawmakers. The goals echo campaign
promises that helped propel Yushchenko to victory in the country's most
disruptive election campaign ever.
Tymoshenko said Ukrainians ought to see an improvement in living standards
if the country's economy experiences the same tremendous growth it saw last
year. Preliminary estimates show the country's GDP jumped by 12.3 percent in
2004. She also said the government would strive to "realize the European
choice" - a reference to Yushchenko's pledge to find a place for Ukraine in
the European Union. She also called for "real and active dialogue" with
Russia and deepening Ukraine's role as the main transit route for Russian
gas to Western Europe.
Tymoshenko became a heroine of the mass protests that broke out following
the Nov. 21 election in which Yanukovych was declared the winner. The
Supreme Court ruled that vote fraudulent and Yushchenko won the Dec. 26
court-ordered revote. Her often divisive rhetoric, however, made her a hated
figure in Ukraine's largely Russian-speaking east, which supported
Yanukovych. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
==========================================================
3. UKRAINE MUST PRESS FOR EU AND NATO MEMBERSHIP
INTERVIEW with Boris Tarasyuk by Yuri Kulikov
Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Tue, February 1, 2005
KIEV - The man likely to become Ukraine's new foreign minister said on
Tuesday he wanted President Viktor Yushchenko to aim for membership
of both the European Union and NATO, a move that could well offend
giant neighbour Russia.
The issue of entering NATO was proposed by Yushchenko's predecessor,
Leonid Kuchma, but was considered impossible given Western criticism
of his record on human rights and corruption.
The twin approach by Boris Tarasyuk, tipped to be the choice for foreign
minister this week, shifted the emphasis of policy to be set down by
Yushchenko, who in his first week in office concentrated efforts on steps
leading to EU membership.
"I find it difficult to imagine that a new administration would back away
from the earlier aim of joining NATO," Tarasyuk, who has served as
foreign minister before, said in an interview.
"Our participation in the system of collective security within NATO is
logical as Ukraine cannot constantly sway between two military groups --
the Tashkent treaty and NATO," he said, referring to a pact grouping
several ex-Soviet states. Any Ukrainian drive to join NATO could well
place the Alliance in a difficult position.
Former imperial master Russia has objected to NATO's two waves of
enlargement, particularly inclusion of three ex-Soviet Baltic states;
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Ukraine is seen by many Russians as
historically within their sphere of influence.
Moscow tried to influence the presidential election in Ukraine, which it
still views as its area of strategic interest, backing Yushchenko's rival
for a time in a rigged November ballot. Yushchenko won a re-run of the
vote on Dec. 26.
Yushchenko embarked on a diplomatic tour immediately after his
inauguration, stopping first in Moscow, and then visiting both western and
central Europe. He has focused on the EU in seeking to bring Ukraine into
the European mainstream, calling for steps leading to associate membership
by 2007.
The new president has devoted little attention to joining NATO, saying the
process was a long one and that the aims of Ukrainian membership would
have to be explained.
BALTIC, EAST EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE
Tarasyuk, 56, said Ukraine would rely on the experience of the Baltic and
central European countries -- now members of the EU and NATO after
pressing hard for entry to both. NATO entry was realistic "within the time
of the president's mandate," suggesting this could be done over two
five-year terms.
"Much needs to be done," he said. "This will depend on an active public
campaign of explanation and getting rid of Soviet-era stereotypes."
In his final months in office, Kuchma removed from Ukraine's military
doctrine a commitment to joining both NATO and the EU, though officials
denied this represented a major policy change.
Western countries criticised mass corruption and human rights violations
under Kuchma, particularly the unexplained murder in 2000 of an
investigative journalist, as well as alleged sales of arms to Iraq under
Saddam Hussein.
Kuchma tried to right relations with Washington by agreeing to send 1,600
troops to the U.S.-led force in Iraq. Yushchenko has pledged to pull the
troops out this year.
As deputy foreign minister in the 1990s, Tarasyuk was instrumental in
securing a deal for Ukraine to send its nuclear weapons back to Russia
after the breakup of the Soviet Union.
He served as ambassador to NATO at a period when the western alliance
was putting together a special relationship with Ukraine and then became
foreign minister from 1998 to 2000 before being dismissed by Kuchma.
He re-emerged as a strong Yushchenko supporter during the heady December
days of the Orange Revolution, regularly addressing vast crowds from the
public podium.
In his comments to Reuters, Tarasyuk said Yushchenko would end a
contradictory foreign policy that confused key powers. "Foreign policy will
be consistent and predictable. There will no longer be the Kuchma
phenomenon of sending contradictory messages depending on which
country he was visiting," he said.
He said it was unrealistic to believe in short-cuts in achieving the
criteria needed for EU membership and predicted it would take 10 years
from the start of talks.
Relations with Russia, he said, remained a priority. "We cannot proceed
with integration with a united Europe while turning our backs on Russia,
which has been and remains a strategic partner," he said. -30-
==========================================================
4. YUSHCHENKO TO COME TO NATO FOR SUMMIT WITH BUSH
Reuters, Brussels, Belgium, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
BRUSSELS - New Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko will come to
NATO headquarters for a summit with President Bush and alliance leaders
on Feb. 22, a NATO source said on Wednesday.
The source said Ukraine had requested a summit-level meeting of the
NATO-Ukraine Commission during Bush's first visit to Europe since his
inauguration for a second term last month.
NATO canceled a ministerial meeting with Ukraine in December over the
rigging of the presidential election in which pro-Russian Prime Minister
Viktor Yanukovich initially claimed victory. The ballot was eventually
re-run and the Western-leaning Yushchenko won. -30-
==========================================================
5. UKRAINE'S NEW GOVT TO PRIORITISE INTEGRATION INTO EUROPE
ITAR-TASS, Moscow, Russia, Thu, Feb 3, 2005
KIEV - To get integrated into Europe will be a priority in the new
Ukrainian government's international activities. "The government will move
on from declarativeness to specific steps, which will bring the country's
relationship with the European Union (EU) to the level of membership
prospects," points out the Cabinet's Meet the People" programme, which
Yulia Timoshenko intends to come forward with following confirmation
of her candidacy for premiership in the Verkhovna Rada here on
Thursday.
The programme also points out that if Timoshenko candidacy is confirmed,
"President Viktor Yushchenko, directly in the parliament's conference hall,
will sign decrees about the appointment of all members of the government".
In this programme, the government undertakes to expedite Ukraine's
integration into the world economic system, which will ensure the country's
steady development and a rise in the effectiveness of the national economy.
With this end in view, as regards European and Euro-Atlantic integration
sphere, the government plans to adopt a renewed National Strategy for
Ukraine's Integration into Europe, create a basis to gain full membership in
the EU, and intensify work to implement the provisions of the agreement on
partnership and cooperation with the EU, and take measures within the
framework of the Ukraine-EU Action Plan.
In order to overcome corruption, the government intends to secure that
corrupt civil servants are called to account and dismissed, introduce strict
control over the spending of civil servants, and establish stringent public
monitoring of the use of budget resources.
The Timoshenko government considers it necessary to promoted an
increase in the capitalisation of the markets of financial services, and
stimulate mergers or amalgamations of financial institutions. -30-
==========================================================
6. "UKRAINE BANGS EU MEMBERSHIP DRUM"
ANALYSIS: By Gareth Harding, Chief European Correspondent
United Press International (UPI), Brussels, Belgium, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
BRUSSELS - Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko must be wondering
what more he has to do to convince EU leaders of Kiev's European vocation.
In November, the former opposition chief was poisoned with a mega-dose of
dioxin. The assassination attempt permanently scarred the "orange
revolution" leader. "I still cannot get used to the face of Yushchenko you
see today," he told reporters in Davos, Switzerland last week. However, this
did not stop him campaigning against incumbent Prime Minister Victor
Yanukovich in November's election.
In a fraudulent first-round poll, Yanukovich was declared the winner, but
this did not stop Yushchenko from challenging the decision in the court and
on the streets. In a re-run of the election on Dec. 26, the former economist
crushed his Moscow-backed rival to become independent Ukraine's first truly
democratic president.
Yushchenko's first mission since he was sworn in Jan. 23 has been to drum up
support for Ukraine's membership of the EU and NATO. On a whistle-stop tour
of the continent last week the newly elected president lobbied European
leaders on the margins of the 60th anniversary of the liberation of the
Auschwitz concentration camp in Poland, members of the Council of Europe in
Strasbourg, and political and business chiefs at the World Economic Forum in
Davos. Yushchenko also planned to give a keynote speech to the European
Parliament in Brussels, but his plane was grounded due to bad weather.
"I represent a European country with European trends, opinions and morality
and that is the way I will represent Ukraine wherever I go," the president
told United Press International in Davos.
Certainly, no one can accuse Yushchenko of fudging his attitude to the EU.
His National Strategy for European Integration states: "Membership of the EU
is s strategic objective of Ukraine and a historic opportunity for the
entire Ukrainian society. The alternative would be a conscious choice to
remain behind the mainstream of European cooperation, not being able to
avail of the benefits stemming from it." The text is expected to be adopted
Thursday Feb. 3, when deputies will also be asked to vote in a liberal
government headed by the fiery Yulia Tymoshenko.
"My country has long been a wise, strong but sleeping elephant," Yushchenko
told Davos delegates Friday. "It is waking today ... and quite shortly,
you'll see a beautiful nation." Yushchenko's stirring prose and personal
bravery earned him a standing ovation in the Swiss ski resort, but the
reception in Brussels has been somewhat chillier.
Benita Ferrero Waldner, the European Commissioner for External Relations,
said the EU executive would not "recommend premature steps," adding that
such move "could be counter-productive."
"Let us be realistic -- a lot has to be done by Ukraine," she told EU
lawmakers last week, adding that the European Union had just taken in 10
countries from central Europe and the Mediterranean.
Yushchenko wants membership talks to start in 2007, but is at pains to point
out that this would mark the beginning rather than the end of negotiations.
"We are realists: Ukraine's membership of the EU is not for today," he says
in a policy statement titled "The European Choice for Ukraine." "However,
our goals are ambitious, and we are prepared to embark on this path, the
path which our neighbors have already taken."
EU foreign ministers have also done their best to keep Ukraine at arm's
length. On Monday, they backed moves to aide Kiev's entry into the World
Trade Organization, ease visa restrictions and work toward a tariff-free
trade partnership, but stopped short of offering the country of 46 million
any prospect of membership.
Under the commission's current plans, Ukraine is lumped together with
Morocco, Israel and Egypt in the EU's "neighborhood strategy." But
Yushchenko believes the former Soviet republic cannot be treated in the same
way as other states on the Union's southern and eastern flanks. "It is not
enough to achieve 'neighborhood status', along with other neighboring
countries, which do not seek to join the EU and which we objectively outpace
on the path to European integration."
Yushchenko is banking on the EU's policy changing as Ukraine moves toward
becoming a fully fledged democracy and market economy. Already cracks are
appearing in the Union's standoffish approach to Kiev.
Speaking on the same platform as Yushchenko in Davos, Polish President
Aleksander Kwasniewski said: "If we started to discuss Turkish membership
of the EU, there is no argument not to open negotiations with Ukraine. The
question is of time, of procedures, but not why or if." The European
Parliament and most of the former communist countries that joined the Union
last May also back Warsaw's stance.
Vasil Hudak, vice president of the East-West Institute -- a U.S.-based
non-governmental organization active in Eastern Europe -- believes the
orange revolution in Kiev has forced the EU to ask questions it would have
preferred to ignore. "The timing is very bad for Ukraine after the decision
to start membership talks with Turkey and the accession of 10 new countries
last year," he said. "Enlargement fatigue is a reality in Europe."
Adds Hudak: "The EU feels it wants to offer Ukraine something, but it can't
go as far as Kiev wants to go." As with Turkey, Brussels finds itself in the
awkward position of having to dampen the eagerness and enthusiasm of a
neighbor on its eastern flanks. The difference is that Ukrainians are
unlikely to be as patient as the Turks, who have waited 40 years for
membership talks to start. -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
==========================================================
7.. "UKRAINE: NATO'S NEW EUROPE PROBLEM"
ANALYSIS: by Robin Shepherd
United Press International, Kiev, Ukraine, Wed, February 2, 2005
KIEV, Ukraine -- The future strategic direction of Ukraine is very much
more than a little, local matter. It will affect Ukraine itself, Russia, the
European Union and NATO.
Little wonder then that there is so much confusion about what to do. All
four players, to varying degrees, are in a state of "strategic shock." With
the election last December of reformist president Viktor Yushchenko, a
matter of seismic geo-political importance has been thrust onto the
political agenda.
Of all of the above-mentioned players, NATO has the clearest position,
while in many ways simultaneously presenting itself as the most sensitive
issue to be overcome. Its "open door" policy -- which offers the theoretical
possibility of membership to any country that meets the entry conditions --
remains precisely that. Ukraine, in principle, is a potential candidate.
In practice, though, things will be somewhat more complicated. Russian
nationalists are nothing short of incensed at the thought that the biggest
of the 15 former republics of the Soviet Union could cut loose completely
from Russia's sphere of influence and throw in its lot with the West. The
Kremlin, which badly miscalculated by backing pro-Moscow candidate
Viktor Yanukovych in last year's elections, is unlikely to be much more
sympathetic.
In Ukraine itself, opinions divide sharply between pro-Moscow Russian
speakers in the east and south and pro-Western Ukrainian speakers in the
center and west. Officials associated with the new administration in Kiev
are becoming more and more vocal in pushing the case for NATO membership.
But they are acutely aware of the domestic divisions they will have to
overcome to achieve it.
For its part, the European Union is simply confused -- as it is about
whether to offer Ukraine the prospect of membership inside its own
structures. But diplomats from key power centers such as Paris and Berlin
are known to be deeply concerned about undermining their relationship with
Moscow. They are unlikely to be in the vanguard of moves to get Ukraine a
place at the NATO table.
In short, the complexities are vast and no one but a fool would be
prepared to offer a confident prediction of what happens next.
However, some historical perspective from central and eastern Europe
over the last decade or so may at least give us some clues as to how things
might pan out.
The fate of the Baltic States, which joined both NATO and the European
Union last year, provides a model for integration reformists in Ukraine
would dearly like to emulate. As former Estonian foreign minister Toomas
Ilves put it at a conference in Kiev last month: "Now that NATO has moved up
to the Russian border, we've crossed the red line." The Baltic states, too,
were constituent republics of the Soviet Union. If Russia could stomach
their accession to NATO, why not Ukraine?
A red line has indeed been crossed, but skeptics could be forgiven for
believing Ukraine may be different. For one thing, Ukraine was part of
Russia's sphere of influence for centuries. It occupies an important place
in the Russian nationalist consciousness. The tiny Baltic states, by
contrast, were always hostile to rule from Moscow, and were incorporated
into the Soviet Union only amid the upheavals of World War II and its
aftermath. There are also other problems such as Russia's Black Sea Fleet,
which operates off Ukrainian territory in the Crimea. This issue will need
to be resolved before NATO can move forward decisively on Ukraine.
Hope, however, comes from the biggest player of all -- which, of course,
is not in Europe. America is the only country in the West with the clout to
face down Russian objections. Moreover, and unlike Paris and Berlin,
Washington has a track record in its dealings with the former communist
world of seeing matters from outside the prism of Moscow. While west
European countries hesitated about how to handle central and eastern Europe
in the 1990s for fear of upsetting the Russians, America provided a powerful
impetus to making those countries part of the West. If President Bush means
what he says in making the forward march of freedom the centerpiece of his
second term in office, Ukrainian reformists may have cause for optimism.
The final piece of the jigsaw puzzle is NATO itself. As one senior NATO
official recently told me on condition of anonymity: "Ukrainians need to
understand that there is a transformed NATO out there." There was the NATO
of the Cold War, implacably positioned in opposition to the threat from
Moscow. There was the NATO of the 1990s, tentatively repositioning itself
and offering an olive branch to a post-communist Russia that was no longer
seen as necessarily hostile to western interests. Now there is the NATO of
the post-9/11 world, rapidly reinventing itself as a combatant in the global
war on terror. Ukraine will have to show NATO how it can contribute to the
organization it is now becoming. Membership is a two-way process.
Pulling all these strands together, some things do, after all, seem
clear. The first is that NATO will not simply absorb Ukraine by osmosis. It
will require a major effort of political will on the part of NATO and its
constituent members and also from within Ukraine if the prospects for
integration are ever to be realized in practice.
The second is that careful diplomatic initiatives toward Moscow will
also need to be combined with a shift in strategic thinking about the role
of Russia in Europe. While doing their best not to enflame sensitivities in
Moscow, Ukraine and the West will need to make it clear that Russia has no
veto over the strategic direction of any European nation, Ukraine included.
The core of the problem is that if Ukraine does join NATO, many of the
outstanding questions of the post-Cold War era will need to be resolved
first: What is NATO for? What is Russia about these days? How European does
the European Union wish to become? And where is Ukraine really capable of
positioning itself in the midst of all this?
The stakes are high for all concerned. -30-
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Robin Shepherd is an adjunct fellow of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies. His column appears weekly.
==========================================================
8. UKRAINE: "DIRECT AND REAL THREATS"
By Yevhen Mahda, Glavred, Kiev, Ukraine, in Russian. 27 Jan 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Jan 30, 2005
President Viktor Yushchenko is facing various problems as he takes office, a
Ukrainian web site has said. There is conflict within his team over major
appointments. He risks being overshadowed by energetic acting prime minister
Yuliya Tymoshenko. Yushchenko's priority of EU membership is encountering
a lack of enthusiasm from Brussels. His biggest problem is to prevent
defections to the opposition from his election allies.
The following is the text of the report by Yevhen Mahda entitled "Direct and
real threats" published by the Ukrainian Glavred web site on 27 January;
subheadings are as published:
The start of Viktor Yushchenko's presidency has provoked fairly many
equivocal evaluations. As often happens, the long-awaited access of a
people's president to the helm of state control brought not only positive
consequences, but also negative impressions.
In world practice it is standard practice to allow 100 days for getting to
grips with state duties, but it seems that Yushchenko has coped far quicker
with determining the threats to his effective rule.
ABSENCE OF TEAM STRUCTURE
In case anyone forgot, Mr Yushchenko came to the elections with a package
of initialled decrees on acutely urgent political and social problems. It
would seem that after completion of the inauguration it only remained to sit
down more comfortably and start signing them. But that is not happening.
Why?
There is no real answer. On the other hand, the personnel appointments have
been so unpredictable that they caused a tsunami of comments both from
inside the team of the new president and in the political scene as a whole.
The struggle for portfolios showed one way or another that there are
internal contradictions within Yushchenko's team. They have a tendency to
increase in volume and temperature and to become a serious factor in
political life in Ukraine after [former President Leonid] Kuchma.
The acuteness of the struggle for the premiership shows that Yushchenko
risks coming up against problems typical, for example, for France in the 80s
and 90s of the last century. As is known, according to the constitution of
the Fifth Republic, both the president and the prime minister have
impressive powers in that European country, and often the logic of public
development was determined by confrontation between a neo-Gaullist and a
socialist occupying the highest posts in the state hierarchy. By putting
forward Yuliya Tymoshenko [as acting prime minister], Yushchenko is
emphasizing his somewhat archaic image as "the gentleman of politics", but
risks finding himself overshadowed by a more energetic prime minister
skilfully making use of the contradictions in his team.
Yushchenko's declared aspiration to form the composition of the government
by the end of the week is not entirely understandable. If one takes into
account that he is in effect intending to do it before Tymoshenko's
confirmation as prime minister, it becomes curious as to what role the
acting prime minister will have in staff selection. Tymoshenko is known for
her ability skilfully to interpret the most acute situations in her favour,
and for now she is out-playing Yushchenko by holding meetings with leaders
of parliamentary factions and groups. Yushchenko, who at one time handed
over the right to coordinate the work of his Our Ukraine parliamentary
faction to [his ally, MP] Viktor Pynzenyk, has evidently forgotten that
leaders of parliamentary factions primarily heed presidential rather than
prime ministerial opinion.
UNDEFINED MODEL OF BEHAVIOUR
Although Yushchenko had enough time to prepare to execute his presidential
powers, there is no feeling that he has a precise action algorithm. The
[travel] blitzkrieg of Moscow - Strasbourg - Krakow - Davos is indeed
impressive. But one still has the feeling that against a background of
wide-scale presentation of himself and Ukraine abroad, Mr Yushchenko
does not fully understand what to do with problems inside the country. He is
accompanied on his travels (at least the people that we see on TV screens
by his side) not by professional diplomats and economists but by loyal
adjutants. Without diminishing the role of [Our Ukraine MPs] Yevhen
Chervonenko and Oleksandr Tretyakov in saving Yushchenko after the
poisoning, one wants to ask what specific benefit did their presence bring?
Would it not be better for the president to take professional negotiator
diplomats with him? Relations both with Russia, Poland and the EU are
not that cloudless as to limit oneself to presentational functions. So far
Yushchenko has distinguished himself only by being always late for most
functions connected with his direct participation and cheerful promises
about Ukraine's bright European future. And this is not the best model of
behaviour in accurately measured Europe.
BETWEEN RUSSIA AND EUROPE
To the delight of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and
the EU, Yushchenko promised rapid rates of Ukraine's move into Europe.
They say that the Eurocrats themselves will be asking why it is that these
remarkable Ukrainians are not yet under the protection of the EU. European
integration as a strategic goal of the president is a fashionable idea,
fairly realistic for implementation. However, it should not be forgotten
that the EU has not yet fully recovered from taking in 10 new states in May
2004.
For this reason, the president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel
Barroso, is in no hurry to open up European embraces for Ukraine,
restricting himself to the promise of a strong positive signal for the new
president. I remind you that the process of fitting in our country's
European newcomer neighbours was painful. Moreover, in most cases the
country was smaller in size than Ukraine and the state of the economy better
than ours today. Their example will be creatively transferred to Ukrainian
soil by the president's opponents, if his efforts and those of [Our Ukraine
MP] Oleh Rybachuk in the question of European integration start to bear
the first fruit.
It is not impossible that Yushchenko, if he maintains the declared high rate
of movement to Europe, will have consistently to address the problem, for
example, of regulating property rights to land of agricultural designation
and providing the agrarian sector, eternally hungry for investments, with
compensation.
In Moscow, people are virtually fully confident that the EU will get fed up
with Ukraine and that both sides will be dissatisfied with the rapprochement
process. There is one other factor in the confidence and at times impudence
of the Russian position: active exports of oil and gas have allowed the
Russian government to accumulate a stabilization fund worth 20bn dollars,
with which it can play extremely actively on international financial
markets. Financial pressure is a relatively new mechanism for the Kremlin,
but an interest in keeping Ukraine, albeit formally, in its sphere of
influence may prompt the Kremlin wise men to unusual actions.
OPPOSITION TO HIS EXCELLENCY
It is extremely important for Yushchenko not to increase the number of
famous politicians that oppose him. While time is on the side of the new
president, neither the social democrats [United Social Democratic Party
(USDPU), which backed Yushchenko's rival Viktor Yanukovych in the
presidential election last year], nor the Party of Regions [led by
Yanukovych], nor Working Ukraine [led by Yanukovych's ex-campaign
chief Serhiy Tyhypko] can reconstruct themselves on the hoof.
Despite declarations of bravado, the process of forming a single
anti-presidential front looks more declarative than actual. The more so in
that the Party of Regions may have to replace its leader [Yanukovych], a
headlong erosion of party ranks is going on in Working Ukraine and the
USDPU prefers playing alone. From the results of the presidential elections
it cannot be said that left wing radicals will soon be very active - both
[Progressive Socialist Party leader] Natalya Vitrenko and [Communist Party
leader] Petro Symonenko will hinder "the regionals" [the Party of Regions]
and therefore are unsuitable for forming a bloc with the centrists.
Yushchenko's basic problem today is to prevent his comrades-in-arms in the
struggle for victory at the presidential elections from joining the
opposition. It will obviously not be simple for him solve it. Either he will
have to go for compromises or take a hard line position excising with
surgical precision those who do not understand the logic of presidential
actions. The new head of state will be forgiven mistakes today, but by the
end of this year the level of criticism of Yushchenko will grow. And he will
hardly be able to avoid the majority of the threats described above unless,
of course, he is able to pre-empt them. -30-
==========================================================
9. UKRAINE LEADER PREPARES TO DUMP GOVERNMENT OLD GUARD
By Ron Popeski, Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
KIEV - New President Viktor Yushchenko, resolved to clear the old guard out
of government, was locked in bargaining on Wednesday over appointments to
bring in a team committed to take Ukraine into the mainstream of Europe.
Parliament in the ex-Soviet state votes on Thursday on his choice as prime
minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, at the head of an administration being assembled
after horse-trading with factions that helped Yushchenko to power in
December's Orange Revolution.
On the eve of the vote, a program of broad government objectives was
presented to deputies, setting down principles of meeting European
standards, social policy and upgrading state institutions. It contained few
concrete proposals or figures. Few sure bets for senior posts emerged on
Wednesday though reformers were mooted for portfolios like foreign, finance
and European integration.
Tymoshenko said no present ministers would be held over. "The government is
100 percent formed," said Tymoshenko, who has slipped out of public view for
a week, on the news Web site Ukrainska Pravda (www.pravda.com.ua).
"The president is engaged in talks from morning to night on forming a
government to tackle the huge task of economic reform," presidential
spokeswoman Iryna Gerashchenko said. The new president wants to get going
on reforms to business practices and civil society to steer the country of
47 million onto the road to European Union membership as promised to
vast numbers of demonstrators massed for weeks in Kiev's main square.
Most commentators predict Tymoshenko will secure the required 226 votes in
the 450-seat chamber. Attention has turned to who will take the top jobs to
overturn what Yushchenko decries as 13 years of post-Soviet corruption and
mismanagement.
SUSPICION IN MOSCOW
Tymoshenko is popular with nationalists but viewed with suspicion in the
Russian-speaking east and in Moscow, where prosecutors are pursuing a
bribery case against her.
Yushchenko has set as a goal starting talks in 2007 on an association
agreement with the EU. With membership of NATO also being mooted one
day, Yushchenko was traveling to Alliance headquarters for a summit with
President Bush and other leaders on Feb. 22, a NATO source in Brussels said.
The president was striking deals among his own Our Ukraine group and its
allies, Tymoshenko's bloc and the Socialist Party. Commentators suggest
Anatoly Kinakh, an ex-prime minister who heads Ukraine's union of
industrialists, will become first deputy prime minister with responsibility
for industrial policy.
Reformist Viktor Pynzenyk is the leading choice for finance minister, a job
he held in the early post-Soviet years before his calls to cut budget
deficits and reform the tax base brought him conflict with Yushchenko's
predecessor, Leonid Kuchma. Borys Tarasyuk, pressing for entry to both the
EU and NATO, is likely to take on the Foreign Ministry he ran in the 1990s.
Mykola Tomenko, a media freedom advocate, is in line to become deputy prime
minister for humanitarian issues. Oleh Rybachuk is expected to have the same
rank with responsibility for European integration. The proposed government
program, as reported by Interfax Ukraine news agency, was entitled "Aimed at
People" and made up of six sections on overhauling post-Soviet institutions.
It called for concrete moves to meet the criteria for joining European
institutions, improve social benefits and upgrade financial institutions --
all based on the principle "the state for people and not people for the
state." Interfax quoted an attached letter from Tymoshenko saying she did
not want merely to introducing herself to parliament.
"I propose an alternative -- presenting not myself but a clear image of how
the country and its people will develop under the cabinet's program," the
letter was quoted as saying. Approval of a long-term program by parliament
would preclude attempts to oust Tymashenko's government before March
2006 parliamentary elections. (Additional reporting by Yuri Kulikov) -30-
==========================================================
10. "EUROPE IS STARTING TO DANCE TO THE BUSH TUNE"
COMMENTARY: by Danielle Pletka
Financial Times, London, UK, Friday, February 4 2005
Over the past four years, an inordinate amount of ink has been spilt over
the chasm between America and Europe. Before George W. Bush's trip to
Europe later this month, a reappraisal of the conventional wisdom is in
order.
Rhetoric and metaphorical excesses aside, there has been an extraordinary
convergence of policies across the Atlantic. More surprising still, that
convergence has been achieved by a shift in Europe to Washington's point
of view.
Increasingly, Washington is setting not only the agenda but also the terms
of debate. From Israel-Palestine to Iran, Lebanon, Turkey or Ukraine,
American and European officials have been hitting the same notes. Washington
has been concerned about the Iranian nuclear programme for years, while
Europe appeared uninterested. Now Europe is taking the lead in trying to
prevent that programme from moving forward. Similarly, Mr Bush made it clear
that Yassir Arafat and his culture of terror and corruption were the chief
obstacle to Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, while Europe was unwilling to
toss Arafat aside. Now European leaders agree that democracy, security and
accountability are prerequisites for peace. And the convergence does not
stop there.
The logic of Turkish accession to the European Union, and the firm belief
that, unless enmeshed in the European web, Turkey will retreat to the Middle
East morass, is more received wisdom in Brussels than not. Similarly, few
dissent from the view that Islamist extremism is among the gravest of
threats. But maybe the oddest of team efforts is the French-American
campaign to get Syria out of Lebanon, both physically and politically. The
US has been largely alone in its efforts to isolate Damascus and dislodge
Syrian troops from Lebanon. Suddenly, partnership with Paris has produced
a forceful United Nations resolution and Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian
president, has sat up and taken notice.
What does this new Atlantic concert mean? It seems implausible that
Washington's lousy manners and gruff idealism have finally found a following
abroad. Rather, in the wake of September 11 2001, the Bush administration
was quicker to latch on to the realities of the post-cold war world and the
long-term threats that face all liberal democracies. Europe's leaders have
also begun come to terms with those realities. The European security
strategy issued by the EU in late 2003 echoes in many respects the White
House's national security strategy of 2002.
Much of the hand-wringing over the Atlantic rift of recent years stems from
the notion that things were peachy throughout the cold war. In fact, we
agreed on little other than the Soviet threat to Europe. Without the
unifying power of the evil empire, the breadth of agreement is quite
surprising.
Not all is harmonious and beautiful. Washington remains protective of its
sovereignty, Europe loves the global government models of the International
Criminal Court and the Kyoto protocol. There is considerable disagreement
over arms sales to Cuba and China. While Europe and the US often agree
about shared threats, there are occasionally profound differences on the
best policies to address them.
For the moment, at least, the US and Europe can settle into an international
good cop/bad cop approach. The problem will arise when the time comes
for the bad cop to act. After all, a good cop still must be a cop.
Jack Straw, the foreign secretary, and his partners have told us that
negotiating with Iran is the only option. But talks may not stop an Iranian
nuclear weapon. Leaning on the Palestinians to fight terror may well achieve
results; but if they do not, will Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy
chief, walk away? Mr Bush will.
But, even where there is serious backstage bickering, there are also serious
efforts to limit damage. Washington's table manners appear to have improved.
Gratuitous jibes have been replaced by diplomatic niceties. For the second
Bush term, some of the personnel will change, and it is clear most of the
new team will be less ready to fight. In return, European officials will
grit their teeth and continue to hold off on the cowboy quips and Hitler
similes.
This bodes well for the US president's visit. Just as his first extremely
uncomfortable trip to Europe in 2001 set the stage for four turbulent years,
so this visit could set the stage for four years of closer co-operation.
Deepening that co-operation will not be easy. Yet those who think the
transatlantic relationship is at an end are writing it off prematurely.
Today, more than ever, Europe is singing Mr Bush's tune. -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The writer is vice-president, foreign and defence policy studies, at
the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, DC
=======================================================
11. "RUSSIAN OUTREACH"
OP-ED by Steven Pifer, Baltimore Sun, Baltimore, MD, 28 Jan 2005
WASHINGTON -- Viktor A. Yushchenko's visit to Moscow on Monday,
the day after his inauguration as Ukraine's third president, was a smart
move. It is hoped that his talks with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin
will constitute the first step toward a solid working relationship between
the two.
That relationship currently oozes tension. Mr. Yushchenko has made clear his
goal of taking Ukraine into Europe and its institutions. Mr. Putin fears the
consequence for Russia will be isolation. And it is no secret that Mr. Putin
would have preferred to host Mr. Yushchenko's election opponent.
In Moscow, Mr. Yushchenko and Mr. Putin spoke publicly of cooperation and
put the best public face on their meeting. Moving forward makes sense, given
the plethora of ties between Ukraine and Russia. They share a long border
and long history as well as cultural, family and linguistic links.
The countries likewise have deep economic connections. Ukraine imports
from or through Russia all of its nuclear fuel, 90 percent of its oil and 80
percent of its natural gas. Ninety percent of the natural gas that Russia
exports to Europe flows through Ukrainian pipelines.
In short, good relations are in the interest of both countries. They should
be achievable. Mr. Yushchenko managed issues with Moscow in a workmanlike
way during his 2000-2001 tenure as Ukraine's prime minister. His government
ensured that bills for Russian gas were paid on time and halted the practice
of stealing gas. Russian investors had relatively open access to the
Ukrainian economy.
The tricky issue for Mr. Yushchenko and Mr. Putin in the future will be
Ukraine's European aspiration. On the face of it, Kiev ought to be able to
draw closer to Europe and still have good, productive relations with Moscow.
Russia appears to accept this, up to a point. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov
has said that Russia would not object to Ukraine joining the European Union.
The Russians may regard this as a distant prospect, given the time the
European Union will need to digest last year's wave of expansion.
One delicate issue will be the fate of the Russian-proposed Single Economic
Space (SES) that would include Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet
states. In Moscow, Mr. Yushchenko did not exclude the possibility of Ukraine
participating in the SES, but such participation could complicate joining
the World Trade Organization and expanding trade links with the EU, which
are high priorities for him.
Ukraine's relationship with NATO poses a far tougher question for Moscow,
particularly if Kiev seeks membership. Ukraine would have to do two things
to become a member: FIRST, it must demonstrate it can contribute to
trans-Atlantic security. Arguably, it has done this by its military
contributions to Balkan peacekeeping operations and the Iraq coalition.
SECOND, and more important, Ukraine must adopt reforms that fully reflect
NATO values. Implementation of the political and economic changes expected
from the Yushchenko government would go a long way toward making Ukraine
eligible for membership.
Neither NATO nor Ukraine should permit a Russian veto of Ukrainian
membership. But a way must be found to address Russia's concern about this
other than by placing obstacles in Ukraine's path to Europe.
The answer is to develop NATO-Russia relations more energetically. The
NATO-Russian relationship has come a long way since its 1997 launch, but its
accomplishments fall short of its potential. Many in Russia still view NATO
through a Cold War prism, too often resulting in a half-hearted approach
toward the alliance. Committed engagement could develop NATO-Russia
relations in parallel with NATO-Ukraine relations.
The alliance and Russia already share an agenda centered on common threats,
such as proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism.
Expanding interaction in these areas, including development of joint
NATO-Russian response capabilities, would strengthen cooperation and
enhance the overall relationship.
U.S. and NATO governments should, in contacts with the Kremlin, make clear
that they support both Ukraine's desire to join Europe and stronger
relations between the West and Russia. The question then becomes how Moscow
chooses to proceed -- by seeking to hold Ukraine back or by engaging more
actively with the West. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Steven Pifer, a retired Foreign Service officer, was U.S. ambassador to
Ukraine from 1998 to 2000 and was a deputy assistant secretary of state
from 2001 to 2004.
==========================================================
12. UKRAINE 'SOLD CRUISE MISSILES TO IRAN, CHINA'
By Tom Warner in Kiev, Financial Times, London, UK, Thu, Feb 3 2005
KIEV - An investigation by the Ukrainian secret police has found that Iran
and China bought long-range missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads from
Ukraine, one of the country's politicians said yesterday. Grigory
Omelchenko, an ally of the country's new leadership and a former head of the
anti-mafia committee in the Ukrainian parliament, claimed yesterday that
Ukraine's SBU secret police had found that 12 Kh-55s were illegally exported
in 1999-2001. He said six of the air-to-ground cruise missiles were sold to
Iran, and six to China.
The Kh-55 - which the US calls the AS-15 - has a highly accurate guidance
system and a range of up to 3,000km, which would put Israel in striking
distance of Iran. The missile was part of the Soviet bomber fleet weaponry
left behind in Ukraine. The allegations, made in Ukraine's parliament
yesterday, bolster claims by the US and other governments that Iran is
seeking to develop the ability to produce nuclear weapons. They also raise
concerns about Iran and China's efforts to improve long-range missile
technology.
Mr Omelchenko, a one-time SBU officer, said that last year the SBU prevented
an attempt to export 14 Kh-55s and arrested a former SBU officer, who is
being tried in Kiev's Regional Appeals Court. He accused high-ranking
officials linked to Leonid Kuchma, the former president, of covering up the
SBU's findings about the sale to protect a "highly placed person from the
circle of President Kuchma, who was involved in the illegal arms sales".
Last November, Colin Powell, former US Secretary of State, said he had
seen intelligence that Iran was working to adapt missiles to deliver a
nuclear weapon.
In September the US slapped sanctions on a private Ukrainian company for
violating a US ban on proliferation to Iran, without specifying what it was
suspected of selling. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
==========================================================
13. BLACK MARKET ANXIETIES REVIVED ON UKRAINE ARMS
By Guy Dinmore and Tom Warner, Financial Times, London, UK, Feb 4 2005
On October 30 2001, a crowd of US and Ukrainian officials gathered in
Pervomaisk, southern Ukraine, where, together with local schoolchildren,
they set off an explosion that destroyed the last nuclear missile silo in
the former Soviet republic.
The spectacular ceremony was supposed to mark the end of Ukraine's
membership of the nuclear weapons club. But hopes it would lay to rest
western fears that Soviet weapons left in Ukraine might fall into the wrong
hands appear to have been dashed. At least 26 nuclear-capable cruise
missiles, emptied of their atomic warheads, ended up on the international
black market if allegations aired this week by amember of Ukraine's
parliament are true.
Grigory Omelchenko, who has investigated other Ukrainian arms-trading cases,
says the SBU secret police are prosecuting one of its former officers,
identified as Mr V.V. Yevdokimov, for selling 12 Kh-55 cruise missiles
between 1999 and 2001 - six each to Iran and China - and attempting to sell
14 more last year.
Designed to be launched by Russian Tupolev bombers, the Kh-55s (known
as AS15s in the west) can fly up to 3000km, hugging the ground to avoid air
defences.
The SBU has declined to comment. It says only that Mr Yevdokimov was
arrested last April and charged with "smuggling military goods outside
Ukraine in 2001 and other crimes". Mr Yevdokimov headed the air cargo
company UkrAviaZakaz. Mr Omelchenko claims senior former government
officials were also involved and he is demanding the SBU reveal more
information about the investigation.
A US State Department spokesman declined to comment on the reported
investigation into the Kh-55 affair. But he noted that preventing missile
proliferation was an important element in the "war on terror" and that
"Ukraine is a partner with us in this war".
The Kh-55s could prove troublesome for Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's new
president, who is eager to bury the country's image as the leading source of
black-market arms. In his election campaign, Mr Yushchenko promised to "say
goodbye" to arms-trading and other scandals. His predecessor, Leonid Kuchma,
was implicated in an alleged plan to sell $100m (Euro, 77m, £53m) worth of
Kolchuga advanced early warning radars to Iraq.
The man who allegedly proposed the deal, Valery Malev, then head of
Ukraine's main arms-export company, died in a car crash soon after a
recording implicating Mr Kuchma surfaced. Mr Kuchma insisted the tape was
forged; the US said it was authentic.
Other recordings made by the former guard, Mykola Melnychenko, allegedly
revealed Mr Kuchma discussing the distribution of kickbacks under the UN's
oil-for-food programme and deliveries of "Grad" surface-to-air missiles to
Iran. The US never found any Kolchuga radar systems in Iraq, though a report
by former UN weapons inspector Charles Duelfer last year said Yuri
Orshansky, a Ukrainian businessman, had been one of Saddam Hussein's main
arms suppliers.
UN weapons inspectors had previously documented Mr Orshansky's involvement
in arms deals dating back to 1993 as well as a visit by Iraqis to a nuclear
research laboratory working on weapons-grade uranium.
The Ukrainian government stripped Mr Orshansky of his status as honorary
consul to Iraq, after international media publicised his weapons trading,
but he continued to arrange illegal arms deliveries right up to the US
invasion of Iraq in 2003, according to Mr Duelfer. Ukrainians have also been
implicated in arms shipments to rebels in Sierra Leone.
Yesterday US officials said they looked forward to increased co-operation
from Ukraine on preventing weapons proliferation and other issues. -30-
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Additional reporting by Guy Dinmore in Washington
==========================================================
14. UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL SAYS INVESTIGATION INTO REPORTED
SALE OF NUCLEAR-CAPABLE MISSILES TO IRAN BEGAN A YEAR AGO
By Aleksandar Vasovic, AP Worldstream, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, Feb 04, 2005
KIEV - Ukraine's intelligence agency has been investigating a number of
alleged illicit weapons deals, an intelligence official revealed, two days
after a senior lawmaker went public with suspicions that Ukraine sold
nuclear-capable cruise missiles to Iran and China in violation of
international nonproliferation treaties. The statement Thursday expands on
revelations made earlier this week by lawmaker Hrihoriy Omelchenko, who is
pressing Ukraine's new president, Viktor Yushchenko, to pursue a full probe
of alleged weapons sales conducted under former President Leonid Kuchma.
The suspicions of improper arms trade with Iran had not been known publicly
until this week when Omelchenko, himself a reserve colonel in the
intelligence service, made his letters calling for a wider probe available
to The Associated Press.
The intelligence official, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition
of anonymity, confirmed late Thursday that the intelligence agency was
investigating the reported sale of nuclear-capable missiles to Iran. The
official also revealed that the probe began a year ago - during Kuchma's
presidency - and that the agency was looking into other alleged illicit
weapons deals as well.
Omelchenko's letters, presented to Yushchenko and to the prosecutor-general,
lay out a complex trail of allegations involving faked documents, mysterious
middlemen and millions of dollars of profits. They allege the involvement of
a Russian arms trader implicated by the United Nations in deals with an
Angolan rebel group, and of the late head of Ukraine's weapons exporting
agency who died in a suspicious car crash.
The claims made in the letters could not be verified late Thursday.
Yushchenko, who took office last month, has promised to investigate
allegations of corruption or misdeeds during Kuchma's decade-long tenure
as president.
Since the 1990s, Ukraine has renounced the nuclear armaments it inherited
from the breakup of the Soviet Union, but it remains a sizable producer of
weapons, including missiles, aircraft and tanks.
Last year, police arrested four men suspected of attempted illegal weapons
trade for an unspecified force fighting in Iraq, and in March 2004, former
Defense Minister Yevhen Marchuk warned that several hundred Soviet-built
SA-2 surface-to-air missiles were unaccounted for. Omelchenko's letters
involve six cruise missiles, designed to carry nuclear warheads, reportedly
were sold unarmed to Tehran, which Washington accuses of trying to develop
a nuclear weapons program.
His letters, making reference to a Ukrainian Security Service report, claim
that in 2000, a reputed Russian arms broker and a Ukrainian partner in 2000
"exported 20 Kh-55 cruise missiles through a fake contract and end-user
certificate with Ukrspetseksport's daughter company Progress and Russia's
state-run arms dealer."
End-user certificates are the export documents that record the final
recipient of an arms shipment. Omelchenko wrote that the end-user
certificate named as the recipient was Russia's Defense Ministry. The
Defense Ministry in Moscow said it had no comment Thursday night, and
the state-run arms dealer could not be reached by telephone.
The broker, Omelchenko said in the letters, was a man named Oleg Orlov.
Orlov and his Emirates-based E.M.M. Arab Systems Ltd. were cited in a 2001
U.N. Security Council report for violating sanctions by ferrying weapons and
supplies to Angola's UNITA rebels. "Six missiles destined for Russia ended
up in Iran ... six missiles destined for Russia ended up in China" in
2000-01, Omelchenko wrote. Orlov could not be located Thursday.
The Kh-55, also known as the AS-15, has a range of 3,000 kilometers (1,860
miles) and is designed to carry a nuclear warhead with a 200-kiloton yield.
Iran does not operate long-range bombers but it is believed it could adapt
its Soviet-built Su-24 strike aircraft to launch the missile, which would
put Israel and other U.S. allies in the region within its reach.
The Israeli government said it knew nothing about the allegations. "But if
it's true, then its extremely serious," Israeli government spokesman Raanan
Gissin said Thursday. "It is no secret that Iran is trying to acquire these
kind of weapons and they must be stopped for the good of the entire world."
Omelchenko also said Ukrainian weapons dealers ferried missiles to China
through a Ukraine-based cargo company run by a former secret service agent.
Profits from the sales of weapons amounted to an estimated at US$2.1 million
(Euro 1.6 million), he wrote, and "Valery Malev, the head of
Ukrspetseksport, knew that missiles were not exported to Russia but to third
countries and with forged documents," Omelchenko said. Malev died in a car
crash in Ukraine in 2002. Police say he fell asleep behind the wheel, but
some suspect foul play.
A multimillion-dollar deal involving the sales of oil-processing equipment
to Iran was used to conceal the sales, Omelchenko said. Companies based in
Cyprus and Iran were involved, he said. In another murky 2002 deal mentioned
in Omelchenko's letters, Valeriy Shmarov, who succeeded Malev as the head of
Ukrspetseksport, reportedly has cashed more than US$3 million (Euro 2.3
million) in commission fees for the sale of T-80UD tanks to the U.S.
military. Ukrspetseksport officials have been unavailable for comment, and
the U.S. Embassy in Kiev said it had no immediate comment. -30-
==========================================================
15. "FIRST TEACHER"
Millions of people are thankful that Varvara Tymofiyivna
Yushchenko lived to see the triumph of her son, Viktor Yushchenko
Editors: The Day Weekly Digest in English, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, Feb 1, 2005
KYIV - Yesterday morning [Monday] brought unfortunate news. Varvara
Tymofiyivna Yushchenko, mother of Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko,
died after a protracted illness.
Varvara Yushchenko was born on November 27, 1918. For many years
she worked as a teacher in the village of Khoruzhivka, Nedryhailiv district,
Sumy oblast. She endured famine, war, her husband Andriy Yushchenko's
imprisonment in concentration camps, the national ruin, and change of
epochs.
She reveled in her two sons, seven grandchildren, and three great-
grandchildren. In recent months, her health deteriorated progressively
under heavy emotional strain caused by the dramatic presidential campaign
of Viktor Yushchenko, and especially his near brush with death.
Millions of people who are mourning with Viktor Yushchenko and his kin are
probably thankful that Varvara Tymofiyivna lived to see the triumph of her
son. She lived long enough to see that the blessing that she gave her son
last summer in a moving expression of motherly love has helped him come
victorious out of this extremely difficult struggle.
Editors of The Day offer their heartfelt condolences to President of Ukraine
Viktor Yushchenko and the family and friends of Varvara Yushchenko.
Yesterday Kyiv's St. Volodymyr Cathedral held a burial service for the late
Varvara Yushchenko. She will be laid to rest next to her husband in her
native Khoruzhivka. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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Photograph of Varvara Yushchenko; LINK: http://www.day.ua/131527
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16. CRIMEAN TARTAR FIGURE OPPOSES MONUMENT TO STALIN
Interfax-Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, Feb 2, 2005
KYIV. Feb 2 (Interfax-Ukraine) - Member of the Our Ukraine parliamentary
faction and speaker of the Crimean Tatar national parliament Mustafa
Dzhemilev said he opposes the idea of setting up a monument to Franklin
Roosevelt, Josef Stalin and Winston Churchill at Livadia Palace outside
Yalta, the faction's press service announced.
"If one recalls all the crimes committed by Stalin and his regime against
Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars, one will understand that monuments to Stalin
must not appear today, especially in the homeland of the Crimean Tatars who
were displaced by Stalin in 1944," Dzhemilev said. -30-
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LINK: http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/28.html?id_issue=10745401
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17. "THE SPECTER OF STALIN IS HAUNTING THE CRIMEA"
By Mykyta Kasyanenko, Simferopol
The Day Weekly Digest in English, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, Feb 1, 2005
The Crimea is the scene of a bitter dispute over the erection of a monument
to "the Big Three." The Communist Party held a rally the other day on
Simferopol's central square in front of the Council of Ministers building to
urge the government not to block the unveiling of a monument in Livadiya to
the participants of the Yalta Conference-Joseph Stalin, Franklin Roosevelt,
and Winston Churchill. Crimean newspapers have unleashed a genuine war,
with some in favor of this idea and others adamantly opposed.
Valery Kucherenko, secretary of the Communist Party city committee, says
that the groundwork for a world order that gave the Europeans fifty years of
peace was laid on the site of the planned monument. The Council of Ministers
of the Crimea, now besieged by picketers, has issued no decisions on this
matter and in fact takes a dim view of the monument. Council of Ministers
Chairman Serhiy Kunitsyn warned that "erecting the monument will destabilize
the Crimea." He said that no permission had been given to build the monument
near Livadiya Palace and that the Council of Ministers never funded the
monument or its installation.
Yalta's chief architect Volodymyr Prystupa told journalists that no
documents have been issued to allow the installation of a monument to "the
Big Three" on the grounds of Livadiya Palace. "The appearance of this
monument on the grounds of the palace without legal permission is out of the
question," the architect said. He pointed out that the palace is a cultural
monument of nationwide importance. National events dedicated to the
anniversary of the Yalta Conference are based on ministerial decisions as
well as Ukraine's interstate agreements, reports the Council of Ministers
press service.
Nevertheless, the bronze figures of Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill are now
being completed in Saint Petersburg. The sculptor is the controversial,
Moscow-based artist Zurab Tsereteli, and several private individuals from
Russia are sponsoring the project.
Tsereteli told the Russian news agency Novy Region that "the Yalta
Conference is an historic event worthy of a monument because it
predetermined Europe's postwar setup for almost half a century and unveiled
realistic plans for the final rout of Germany." He said that he is merely
seeking to depict a historical fact and in symbolic fashion express the idea
of the peoples' joint struggle against Nazism. One should not ignore Stalin
when the Yalta Conference is at issue, he said, adding that Roosevelt and
Churchill's studies- cum-libraries have been restored in Livadiya Palace.
Stalin was the equal, if not principal, member of this group of three
leaders." "I have no reason to love Stalin: my grandfather Zurab, in whose
honor I was named, was executed in 1937, my mother wore black mourning
clothes until she died. My wife's parents were repressed," Tsereteli said,
responding to a question about dismantling Stalin's personality cult.
Among those who vehemently oppose the idea of erecting the monument is
People's Deputy Refat Chubarov. Speaking in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine,
he declared: "On the initiative of some bureaucrats, plans are afoot to
erect a monument near Livadiya Palace to Stalin, one of the bloodiest
tyrants of the 20th century, as part of the events commemorating the Yalta
Conference. The implementation of this hideous idea precisely in the
Crimea - from where the Crimean Tatar people were forcibly deported 60
years ago by a decision made by Stalin and his coterie, on the land that was
denied to its native inhabitants for 45 long years because they were
forbidden to come back, although tens of thousands of Tatars tried to return
to their homes but were repeatedly thrown out of the peninsula by brute
force - is a desecration of the memory of the hundreds of thousands of
people who died in exile, an insult to the tens of thousands of people who
survived in exile, and the thousands of people who, despite everything,
survived and came back to their homeland.
"The supporters of the idea to erect a monument to the tyrant claim that
Stalin is an historic personality. By this logic, you can vindicate anybody,
even Hitler... Stalinism, a variety of fascism, will never be tolerated in
the Crimea!"
"No matter what your attitude to Stalin is, you can't rewrite history!" the
newspaper Krymskaya Pravda has commented. Another Crimean newspaper,
Poluostrov, objects: "Stalin is coming to the Crimea! The Crimean Tatars are
against this." Some favor an outright ban on erecting monuments to tyrants;
others suggest that the monument be unveiled quietly and without public
gatherings: not in February, the 60th anniversary of the conference, but in
March. A huge debate seems inevitable. -30-
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PHOTO MONTAGE BY THE PROJECT AUTHOR, A PROJECTED
MONUMENT TO "THE BIG THREE" BY ZURAB TSERETELI
LINK: http://www.day.ua/131522
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SIGMABLEYZER MONTHLY MACROECONOMIC REPORTS
http://www.sigmableyzer.com/index.php?pid=532
1. UKRAINE -- Macroeconomic Situation - December 2004
http://www.sigmableyzer.com/files/Ukraine_Ec_Situation_12_04fin.pdf
2. ROMANIA-- Macroeconomic Situation - December 2004
http://www.sigmableyzer.com/files/ROM_Ec_Situation_12_04.pdf
3. BULGARIA-- Macroeconomic Situation - December 2004
http://www.sigmableyzer.com/files/BLG_Ec_Situation_12_04.pdf
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