"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT - AUR"
An International Newsletter
The Latest, Up-To-Date
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT - AUR" - Number 559
Mr. E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine, THURSDAY, September 15, 2005
--------INDEX OF ARTICLES--------
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. WITH HIS GOVERNMENT IN TURMOIL, UKRAINE'S LEADER HEADS TO U.S.
By Andrew Maykuth, Knight Ridder Newspapers
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Thu, September 15, 2005
2. UKRAINE: HOW WILL THE PRESIDENT'S "MINISTERIAL SURGERY"
AFFECT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION?
By Natalia Huzenko, The Day Weekly Digest in English, #27
Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, 13 September 2005
3. UKRAINE GOVERNMENT LOWERS ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2005
August GDP falls, first time economy has contracted since 1999
AFX Europe (Focus), Kiev, Ukraine, Wednesday, Sep 14, 2005
4. DEAL FOR UKRAINE COMPANY RENEWS CHARGES OF ABUSE
By Steven Lee Myers, The New York Times
New York, N.Y. Thursday, September 15, 2005
5. RUSSIAN ADVISER TO UKRAINE'S LEADER APPLAUDS DISMISSAL
OF PRIME MINISTER WHO LED ECONOMY INTO SERIOUS CRISIS
RIA news agency, Moscow, in Russian 1130 gmt 14 Sep 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Wed, September 14, 2005
6. YUSHCHENKO'S RAPPROCHEMENT WITH RUSSIA
OPINION: By Peter Lavelle, Political Commentator
RIA Novosti, Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Sep 14, 2005
7. POLAND'S PRESIDENT KWASNIEWSKI CONCERNED WITH
THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE
Polskie Radio, Warsaw, Poland, Saturday, Sep 10, 2005
8. RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE CHERNOMYRDIN SUPPORTS
YUSHCHENKO'S DECISION TO DISMISS CABINET
Associated Press (AP), Kiev, Ukraine, Monday, September 12, 2005
9. RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST GLEB PAVLOVSKY SAYS CHANGE
IN UKRAINE WILL BENEFIT RUSSIA AND THE WEST
RIA Novosti, Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, September 14, 2005
10. IRISH INVESTORS URGED TO CONSIDER UKRAINE
Business World, Ireland, Friday, September 09, 2005
11. MINISTRIES OF CULTURAL AND EDUCATION IN UKRAINE AGREE
TO SUPPORT UKRAINIAN LANGUAGE AND CULTURE IN AUSTRALIA
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), No. 559, Article 11
Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, September 15, 2005
12. GOVERNOR OF THE VOLYN OBLAST SUPPORTS THE NORTH
AMERICAN TOUR OF THE VOLYN UKRAINIAN SONG & DANCE CO
Tour to begin on November 1, 2005
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), No. 559, Article 12
Washington, D.C., Thursday, September 15, 2005
13. ADOPTION OF A PROPORTIONAL PREFERENTIAL BALLOT SYSTEM
Democratic reform back on the agenda
LETTER-TO-THE-EDITOR: By Anthony van der Craats, Australia
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), No. 559, Article 13
Washington, D.C., Thursday, September 15, 2005
14. FORMATION OF WORLD JEWISH PARLIAMENT ANNOUNCED IN KYIV
Ukrinform, Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, September 12, 2005
15. U.S. FUND FOR CIVIL STUDIES AND DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
ACTIVELY SUPPORTING UKRAINIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS
Will sponsor major conference in Kyiv in October
Hanna Snigur-Hrabovska, Ukrinform, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
16. THE ORANGE REVOLUTION: ROUND TWO
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY: By Tammy Lynch
Behind the Breaking News: A briefing from the
Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology & Policy
Boston University, Boston, MA, Wednesday, September 14, 2005
17. UKRAINE'S ORANGE REVOLUTION
Government May Finally Function, Say Canadian Observers
News Story by Christopher Buly
Embassy, Canada's Foreign Policy Newsweekly
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Wed, September 14th, 2005
18. DESPITE POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE, YUSHCHENKO AND RIVAL
TYMOSHENKO LIKELY TO REUNITE AFTER NEXT ELECTION
INTERVIEW: with Adrian Karatnycky
By Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor
Council On Foreign Relations (CFR)
New York, NY; Washington, D.C. Tue, September 13, 2005
19. HOW THE DEATH VALLEY SCREAMERS MADE IT MASSIVE IN UKRAINE
Mr. Carr and his forthcoming marriage to the daughter of Yulia Timoshenko
By Adrian Blomfeld in Kiev, Arts.telegraph, London, UK, Thu, Sep 15, 2005
===============================================================
1. WITH HIS GOVERNMENT IN TURMOIL, UKRAINE'S LEADER HEADS TO U.S.
BY Andrew Maykuth, Knight Ridder Newspapers
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Thu, September 15, 2005
PHILADELPHIA - With his Orange Revolution government in disarray,
Ukrainian President Viktor A. Yushchenko raised eyebrows Wednesday by
traveling to the United States, where he will collect the $100,000 Liberty
Medal on Saturday in Philadelphia.
Yushchenko departed the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, Wednesday for New York,
where he is scheduled to attend a summit at the United Nations on its 60th
anniversary. He then plans to visit Philadelphia for the award ceremony,
according to Yushchenko's Web site and a spokesman at Ukraine's U.N.
mission in New York.
Yushchenko's travel plans were uncertain after he sacked his charismatic
prime minister last week.
"The timing is bad," said Taras Kuzio, a visiting professor at George
Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. "The
commonly held view in Ukraine and in Washington is that we are surprised
he's leaving the Ukraine when he doesn't have a government in place."
Yushchenko, disfigured by dioxin poisoning during a tumultuous campaign
last year, came to power in December during the Orange Revolution, which
ousted the Russian-supported ruling party. But the euphoria has worn off.
His approval ratings have declined.
He fired Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and all of his cabinet last
Thursday after months of bickering over the government's direction and
mutual allegations of corruption. Tymoshenko, also part of the Orange
Revolution, then announced she was joining the opposition.
By leaving the country on a nonessential mission, Yushchenko risks
amplifying the perception that he is out of touch, Kuzio said. "He's not
appreciative of the depth of the crisis in Ukraine," Kuzio said.
The Liberty Medal usually is awarded on July 4, but Yushchenko could not
be here for Independence Day. The ceremony was rescheduled for Sept.
17 at the National Constitution Center. Many Philadelphia businesses plan
to bathe their buildings in orange light to recognize Yushchenko's visit.
A provision of the Liberty Medal is that the recipient must personally
collect the award, thus ensuring the attendance of world leaders at the
annual event, said R. Andrew Swinney, president of the Philadelphia
Foundation, which administers the Liberty Medal.
But Swinney said the rule was not ironclad. Polish President Lech Walesa,
the first Liberty Medal winner, in 1989, sent his wife to collect the award.
The Liberty Medal was created at the Constitution's bicentennial to heighten
recognition of America's founding principles. The most recent winners were
former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, U.S. Supreme Court Justice
Sandra Day O'Connor, and Afghan President Hamid Karzai. -30-
==============================================================
1. UKRAINE: HOW WILL THE PRESIDENT'S "MINISTERIAL SURGERY"
AFFECT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION?
By Natalia Huzenko, The Day Weekly Digest in English, #27
Kyiv, Ukraine, Tuesday, 13 September 2005
The series of scandals caused by the Prime Minister's meddling in the
market will either die down or flare up with renewed force. So far, no one
can predict the behavior of an unbalanced currency market or the impact
that the change of government will have on the already inattractive
investment climate.
Last Friday, the day after the cabinet dismissal was announced, the rate
of the cash dollar in Kyiv rose to UAH 5.02-5.25.
Yet, most business people approve the president's decision.
[1] Vasyl RADIONOV, general manager of PentoPak:
"Although it seems that in all probability our president was simply forced
to take this step, his actions will undoubtedly have a positive effect on
this country's economic development. I don't think it is terrible that both
the government and the head of the National Security Council were
dismissed. There's no reason to panic.
Other people, for whom we have been waiting a long time, will come, and
serious analysts will replace populists, with their erratic crowd-pleasing
rather than economic decisions. I would like to think that they will be our
producers, true defenders of our economy and the jobs we've created.
Instead of lobbying foreign-capital companies, they will stand up for the
interests of our businesses, the backbone of the national economy.
"I hope that the new cabinet focuses attention on our industry and the
enterprises that are really offering employment and furnishing added value,
which in turn forms our budget.
In my view, the governmental reshuffle will have a very salutary effect on
the investment climate. There were some figures in the previous cabinet who
physically repelled investors. Some of their statements left our partners
scared witless, and they said they would wait until those ministers were
gone.
Last Thursday I visited an established foreign company: they were overjoyed
at the president's decision. They seemed to have reverted to the beginning
of the year, when there was still hope for better times. I would very much
like this hope to be realized at least this time."
[2] Viktor LYSYTSKY, ex-secretary in the Yushchenko cabinet:
"What is important here is the time factor, i.e., how fast all these changes
are occurring, because any delay in the formation of a new cabinet will
first of all once again show that the government is unable to get quickly
restructured and reorganized, and, secondly, this will slow down and shelve
a number of bills that should be passed as soon as possible.
It is not clear what will happen to the budget or who will be responsible
for the GDP this and next year, and, of course, all this will curb the
growth rate. I am glad that Yuriy Yekhanurov was instructed to form the new
cabinet: he is a modern-thinking person, he knows how the governmental
machine works, he is very dynamic and, compared to many leaders, very
sociable and not averse to discussions.
I think he will form and set into motion a government with the same
traditions that existed under Mr. Yushchenko's prime ministership. I also
hope he does not form the cabinet in keeping with the principle of who
shouted the loudest on the Maidan but finds really good professionals.
It is also very good, of course, that Rybachuk was appointed chief of the
Presidential Staff. He is a very industrious, wise, and energetic person,
who wields a great deal of clout with the president. I think he will work
with him in the front office, while the back office will be given over to a
highly skilled bureaucrat, who will exercise overall supervision of the
staff.
The Rybachuk-Yekhanurov connection is a very productive one, which
makes me hope that all the differences in the top echelons will finally be
laid to rest.
I also hope that the new cabinet will work in a more transparent and decent
way, and that transparency will be achieved not by reciprocal jibes
circulated by the media but by introducing a system in which everybody will
know the government's plan of work for some time ahead. This may be the
most radical change in public politics. Predictability and stability are
very important for business.
I think Mr. Yekhanurov's tenure will improve the relationship between
businessmen and politicians - this will be systematized work with large
associations of employers. It is not clear, however, how the government is
going to implement the 2005 budget, which already has a huge debt."
[3] Oleh POBEREZHNY, chief of the Board of Governors, Farmers' Land
Joint-Stock Bank:
"I am almost certain that the change of government will have a positive
effect on this country's economic situation. Ms. Tymoshenko's cabinet
pursued a totally wrong policy. Sometimes it caused so much harm to
businessmen and entrepreneurs that I would call her actions anti-statist.
I hope Mr. Yekhanurov will be able to form a fundamentally different
cabinet, a more creative and flexible one oriented to working with ordinary
people and addressing their real problems. We expect him to focus his
attention on agriculture, which is now in dire straits. I think Yekhanurov
knows how to inject money into this sector.
By disconnecting from big industrial clans and freed of the obligation to
serve the interests of a certain industrial or financial group, he will keep
all industries under his scrutiny.
Some policies of the former cabinet, which did immeasurable harm to
business, must now be reversed. This means, FIRST of all, payment of the
VAT on fixed asset investments. If an investor who imports equipment not
produced in this country has to pay 30% of its value long before it begins
to yield a profit, he will think twice about bringing it here.
The SECOND issue is the abolition of free economic zones. Some of them
were undoubtedly set up for machinations with various goods and money
laundering, but there were others to which investors would come and invest
their money.
It was a mistake to destroy everything without looking into each concrete
case. We hope the new cabinet pays attention to this and removes all the
snags, so that the new budget is free of such things."
[4] Oleksiy PLOTNYKOV, Professor, Institute of Global Economics and
International Relations, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine:
"A well-known Ukrainian tradition will be set in motion: laying all the
blame on the previous cabinet. All the problems that arose under President
Yushchenko will be referred to the Tymoshenko government.
There will be no major changes because the president was more responsible
for this course than the cabinet. There may be variations to a lesser or
larger extent in the social orientation of the budget because of the coming
elections, as well as in foreign economic policy. For example, there will be
no overt confrontation with the Russian Federation. Maybe the new
government will at last stop re-dividing property.
I hope this will not affect the currency market: there, the National Bank
has to deal with the hryvnia. As for investment attractiveness, investors
gave this country a wide berth back in the first quarter. Now they are going
to be watching the new cabinet closely."
[5] Valeriy LYTVYTSKY, leader of a group of advisors to the governor of the
National Bank of Ukraine:
"All kinds of changes - hurricanes, crop failures, terrorist acts, elections
and reelections - have an effect on money and the currency market. Our
central bank has never led a sterile existence. Some changes have occurred
every year. We are used to a situation where somebody keeps trying to scare
the markets. So this change of government is sure to leave some scars.
However, Article 99 of the Constitution and Article 6 of the Law on the
National Bank compel us to stand guard over the hryvnia and a stable banking
system. In these conditions, we must respond to all political challenges. I
hope we will cope with this situation. Of course, there may be some minor
fluctuations. Much depends on the expectations of consumers and producers,
which will undoubtedly be affected by political events."
[6] Andriy HUREVYCH, manager of the International Financial Corporation's
project "Development of Entrepreneurship in Ukraine:"
"We have great hopes that this country's economic situation will improve.
Forming the cabinet was entrusted to Yekhanurov, who is known for his
longtime attempts to improve business. He once headed the parliamentary
committee in charge of industrial policies and entrepreneurship. So we
expect the new cabinet to be more sympathetic to entrepreneurs than the old
one.
As for foreign investments and investment attractiveness in general, I must
say that the previous cabinet took a number of steps that did not improve
our investment climate. Above all this applies to long-term contracts.
I think that in the longer term, the new cabinet will be predictable and
stable, which cannot but have a positive effect on this country's economic
attractiveness and will allow us to tap into the positive potential laid by
the revolution. In my view, there are no preconditions for any crisis
situations." -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
=============================================================
3. UKRAINE GOVERNMENT LOWERS ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2005
August GDP falls, first time economy has contracted since 1999
AFX Europe (Focus), Kiev, Ukraine, Wed, Sep 14, 2005
KIEV - Ukraine's government lowered its economic growth forecast for 2005
to 4.0 pct after data showed that the nation's gross domestic product (GDP)
fell in August, the first time the economy had contracted since 1999.
"We plan on GDP being at the level of 4.0 pct," Anatoly Kinah, a first
deputy prime minister in the outgoing government, was quoted as saying by
the Interfax news agency.
The government of sacked prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which was
dismissed amid a corruption scandal last week, had initially issued a
full-year 2005 growth forecast of 8.2 pct before revising the figure to
6.0-6.5 pct.
In 2004, Ukraine posted record economic growth of 12.1 pct on the heels of a
9.4-pct expansion in 2003. Kinah said the government now expected inflation
in 2005 to come to 10 pct, compared with a 9.8 pct estimate issued earlier.
Kinah spoke a day after data released by the national statistics committee
showed that Ukraine's GDP fell by 1.6 pct in August from the same month a
year earlier. Data showed that during the first eight months of 2005,
Ukraine's economy grew by 2.8 pct compared with the same period in 2004.
The bleak economic figures deal a further blow to President Viktor
Yushchenko, who assumed power after leading last year's "orange revolution"
on pledges of driving Ukraine toward membership in the European Union and
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). -30-
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4. DEAL FOR UKRAINE COMPANY RENEWS CHARGES OF ABUSE
By Steven Lee Myers, The New York Times
New York, N.Y. Thursday, September 15, 2005
KIEV, Ukraine, Sept. 14 - In the last weeks of Leonid D. Kuchma's
scandal-tarred presidency, an American company reached an agreement
with his government to take control of a state-owned chemical factory in
eastern Ukraine under terms that have been criticized as secretive and
suspiciously generous.
On Sept. 2, dozens of men dressed in camouflage and body armor stormed and
seized the headquarters of the factory, the Severodonetsk Azot Association.
They were accompanied by officials of a new government, carrying an order
signed by a minister under Mr. Kuchma's successor, Viktor A. Yushchenko.
The order was based on a court case filed by a fictitious company, on behalf
of a politician who stood to gain from the seizure, according to a senior
government official. "It was a very serious abuse of the system," said the
chairwoman of the country's State Property Fund, Valentyna P. Semeniuk.
The accumulated weight of scandal and internal rifts has destroyed the
political coalition that Mr. Yushchenko formed to challenge Mr. Kuchma's
government and create a newly democratic, corruption-free government.
It has also raised questions about the true success of what came to be known
as the Orange Revolution, as members of Mr. Yushchenko's team volley
accusations of abuse of power, bribery and other forms of corruption.
"Corruption exists in different countries, but in civilized countries there
is prompt action against it," said Oleksandr O. Zinchenko, Mr. Yushchenko's
chief of staff, who resigned, coincidentally, on the same day that the
company was seized. Three days later he went public with accusations of
corruption among Mr. Yushchenko's senior aides, three of whom he named,
and the president did nothing about it.
Mr. Zinchenko's resignation provoked a political firestorm here that shows
little sign of subsiding.
Last week Mr. Yushchenko dismissed his prime minister and the rest of her
government, as well as the head of the customs service. He also suspended
or accepted the resignation of several members of his staff who are at the
center of Mr. Zinchenko's accusations.
Even so he has defended his aides, much as Mr. Kuchma called accusations
against his own aides politically motivated. "There is an anecdote," Mr.
Yushchenko said Monday. "It does not really matter whether a man has a
daughter or does not have a daughter. It is enough to say in public that his
daughter does not behave herself well."
That has not stopped him, however, from accusing the departed prime
minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko, of corruption herself. After first striking a
conciliatory note after her dismissal, Mr. Yushchenko accused her of
siphoning $1.6 billion from the budget "in favor of private undertakings,"
coercing judges and improperly intervening in a dispute over an alloy plant,
Nikopol Ferroalloys.
"It is very unpleasant for me to think what Yulia Vladimirovna could have
received if Nikopol Ferroalloy would have been transferred into the hands of
business groups," he said in another interview, on Tuesday, referring to Ms.
Tymoshenko.
Mr. Yushchenko appointed a new prime minister, Yury I. Yekhanurov, and has
since rallied political parties, including some that he opposed only a year
ago, to form a sort of unity cabinet. He also created a commission to
investigate corruption in his inner circle, but gave it only 10 days - until
next week - to say whether the charges warrant further investigation. He has
already suggested publicly that they will not.
The allegations, however, may prove difficult to sweep aside. Reports of
bribery and corruption have swirled around Mr. Yushchenko's circle from the
time of his inauguration in January. His son came under scrutiny this summer
for receiving gifts and favors.
"Corruption is in the air," Ms. Tymoshenko, who was one of the most
impassioned and popular leaders of last year's protests, said in an
interview, citing complaints of businessmen forced to pay bribes to members
of Mr. Yushchenko's administration. "This is the air we had to breathe."
A senior Western diplomat said he gave credence to reports that Mr.
Yushchenko's aides had solicited payment for access to the president, for
appointments to government positions, to influence court cases and to win
control over state enterprises. He said a government official had told him
of personally being asked for a bribe by one of Mr. Yushchenko's senior
aides, whom he would not name.
"I think he is vulnerable, because of his loyalty, to the bad behavior of
those around him," the diplomat said of Mr. Yushchenko, speaking on
condition of anonymity because of diplomatic protocol.
Even an informal adviser to Mr. Yushchenko, Oleksandr Y. Pakhavyov, said
corruption was endemic in Ukraine, and the shadowy intersection of business
and state made it unrealistic to expect a swift change.
He cited an effort by Ms. Tymoshenko to crack down on the smuggling of meat
through customs. The contraband, he said, accounted for nearly a fifth of
all meat purchased in Ukraine. After Ms. Tymoshenko's government tightened
controls, prices soared, sparking one of the economic crises that have
eroded Mr. Yushchenko's popularity.
Viktor M. Pinchuk, one of the country's wealthiest men and the son-in-law of
Mr. Kuchma, said it was not government policy but commercial interest - Ms.
Tymoshenko's - that was driving the legal challenge to Nikopol Ferroalloy
Plant. He acquired a controlling share in 2003 in a tender since criticized
as rigged.
He said Ms. Tymoshenko had intervened on behalf of a minority shareholder
who had close ties to her. Ms. Tymoshenko denied that, saying she was
acting to seize the shares owed the state.
The dispute over Severodonetsk Azot, Ukraine's third largest chemical plant,
boiled over even as Mr. Yushchenko's coalition imploded. Worldwide Chemical,
a subsidiary of New York-based IBE Trade, agreed to invest $180 million in a
new company with Mr. Kuchma's government in exchange for 60 percent of its
shares.
James William Grant, Worldwide Chemical's vice president, said that within
months the new investors, including Americans and Russians, had increased
production, raised salaries and paid off the debts that had forced the
former state enterprise into bankruptcy.
But a lawsuit filed in March in a district court in Kiev - not in Lugansk,
where the factory is located - challenged that deal, and the court agreed.
Neither the state nor the new company had the chance to mount a defense,
according to Ms. Semeniuk of the property fund.
The government's role in the dispute is far from clear. In letters to
American congressmen who voiced concerns, Ms. Semeniuk and Mr.
Yushchenko promised that the matter would be resolved in court.
Yet, despite Mr. Yushchenko's pledges, the minister of industrial policy,
Valery N. Shandra, signed an order late last month returning control of the
plant to what was left of the state enterprise, and one of his deputies was
there when the plant was seized.
Mr. Shandra, who was dismissed with the rest of the government, could not be
reached for comment but his deputy, Viktor N. Baranchuk, said the ministry
had to carry out the court's order, even though it was on appeal. "We are
being made scapegoats," he said.
The men in camouflage - Mr. Grant said it was never clear who they were or
whether they were armed - occupied the plant's headquarters for four days,
as workers and company executives protested outside. On Sept. 6, Mr.
Yushchenko intervened, even as he held frantic negotiations to salvage his
government, ordering that the factory be returned to Worldwide Chemical
until the matter was resolved in court.
Referring to this case, as well to Nikopol and others, Mr. Yushchenko said
intrigues in his circle reflected a "a very complicated metastasis in the
society and in the authorities."
Mr. Grant, a former congressman from Florida, said the company remained
concerned about the fate of its investment in what had promised to be a new
Ukraine.
"We expected better," he said. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report]
=============================================================
5. RUSSIAN ADVISER TO UKRAINE'S LEADER APPLAUDS DISMISSAL
OF PRIME MINISTER WHO LED ECONOMY INTO SERIOUS CRISIS
RIA news agency, Moscow, in Russian 1130 gmt 14 Sep 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Wed, September 14, 2005
MOSCOW - Boris Nemtsov, adviser to the Ukrainian president, has
laid the blame for the socioeconomic and political crisis in Ukraine on the
country's former prime minister, Yuliya Tymoshenko.
"The main reason for what has happened lies in the fact that the Tymoshenko
government led Ukraine's flourishing economy into a serious economic
crisis," Nemtsov said at a news conference in Moscow on Wednesday [14
September].
"Tymoshenko created a hostile investment climate in Ukraine and the
managerial chaos in the government was without bounds," Nemtsov said. In
his words, in the last year investment in Ukraine's economy dropped 12-fold,
though everybody had expected "golden rain" from the orange revolution.
"The flight of capital reached 2bn dollars - this is enormous money for
Ukraine," the Ukrainian president's adviser said.
Nemtsov welcomed Viktor Yushchenko's decision to dismiss Yuliya
Tymoshenko, adding: "She should have been driven out earlier."
He called Yushchenko's decision to appoint Yuriy Yekhanurov to the post
of prime minister correct. In Nemtsov's view, "this is a plus, including
from the point of view of Russian-Ukrainian relations". In this connection
Yushchenko's adviser expressed the hope that Russian investment in
Ukraine's economy would increase following the dismissal of the
Tymoshenko government.
"I believe that Russian investment can and should flow into Ukraine,"
Nemtsov said. In his words, he has already presented his proposals on the
protection of property rights and rights of investors to the Ukrainian head
of state. "My corresponding draft law is currently being worked through in
the president's administration," he said. -30-
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6. YUSHCHENKO'S RAPPROCHEMENT WITH RUSSIA
OPINION: By Peter Lavelle, Political Commentator
RIA Novosti, Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Sep 14, 2005
MOSCOW - Viktor Yushchenko's decision to dismiss Yuliya Tymoshenko's
government recasts Ukraine's domestic politics, and creates an opening
for Ukraine and Russia to turn a new page in bilateral relations.
Most commentary on Ukraine's latest political turmoil has focused on
internal politics, and the fracturing of the "orange" coalition that
delivered Yushchenko the presidency (and Tymoshenko the government).
Few seem to notice, however, that Ukraine's foreign policy, particularly in
regard to Russia, has been impacted just as dramatically.
Yushchenko has freed his hands at home and will have little choice but to
proceed with a rapprochement toward Russia's Kremlin if Ukraine is to
avoid the same kind of regional tensions that divided the country during the
"Orange Revolution."
Tymoshenko's dismissal from government, and her decision to go into
opposition against Yushchenko, have essentially split the original "orange"
coalition. The meaning of this impact will soon become evident as the
country approaches the March 2006 parliamentary elections.
Tymoshenko's decision to form her own coalition is poised to fracture the
"orange" vote in western Ukraine, while continuing to alienate the
Russian-speaking east. Her political ambitions have created an important
opportunity for Yushchenko at home, and for the future of Ukrainian-Russian
relations.
Yushchenko's appointment of Yury Yekhanurov as acting prime minister has
been hailed as a shrewd political move to de-politicize government economic
policy. However, the fact that he is an ethnic Russian from eastern Ukraine
is just as important in geopolitical terms.
The more Tymoshenko and her supporters attempt to hijack the ideals and
program of the "Orange Revolution" through their time-honored use of
anti-Russian rhetoric, the more eastern Ukraine will look for alternative
candidates and parties.
Yushchenko's mission is to derail Tymoshenko's ambitions, to ensure that
these alternative candidates and parties become aligned with his own
campaign - and this is where the Kremlin comes into the picture.
It is universally agreed that the Kremlin's approach to and involvement in
Ukraine's presidential election was misguided, and helped fuel the "Orange
Revolution" as a pro-Western and anti-Russian popular uprising. Ukraine's
forthcoming parliamentary election provides an opportunity to right a
historical wrong. It is highly unlikely that the Kremlin will openly support
its "own" candidates and parties. However, indirectly supporting Yushchenko
and his team in eastern Ukraine would benefit both countries.
A Yushchenko-Putin embrace sounds odd at first blush, but it makes political
sense. The Kremlin made the mistake of supporting Viktor Yanukovych instead
of the forward-looking and reformist candidate Yushchenko during the
elections last year.
From a political perspective, Yushchenko and Putin have always had a lot in
common - the aims of breaking the grip of the oligarchs, economic
modernization, and integration.
One other shared policy goal is a united and strong Ukraine. During and
since the "Orange Revolution," pundits and many politicians have talked
about Ukraine moving toward the West. Few realize that Ukraine is not
actually going anywhere - it will always stay between the European Union and
Russia. Both the EU and Russia desire a stable, united and prosperous
Ukraine.
To make this happen, Yushchenko needs Ukraine's eastern neighbor on his
side. To keep Ukraine together during what is expected to be a rancorous
parliamentary election campaign, Yushchenko will have no choice but seal a
rapprochement with Russia. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and
do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
=============================================================
7. POLAND'S PRESIDENT KWASNIEWSKI CONCERNED WITH
THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN UKRAINE
Polskie Radio, Warsaw, Poland, Sat, Sep 10, 2005
WARSAW - 'Ukraine cannot afford to waste what it gained in the course
of the Orange revolution', said Poland's president Aleksander
Kwasniewski.
Speaking at the European Economic Forum in Krynica and referring to
the sacking of Ukraine's prime minister Yulia Tiomoshenko, president
Kwasniewski compared the latest developments in Kiev to Poland's
internal situation at the beginning of the 1990s.
Then the Solidarity circles split to form various political parties. Still,
Poland managed to reach its strategic goals. 'This is the path for Ukraine
to follow- to keep the objectives in sight despite changing leadership',
added Aleksander Kwasniewski. -30-
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LINK: http://www.radio.com.pl/polonia/article.asp?tId=27290&j=2
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8. RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR TO UKRAINE CHERNOMYRDIN SUPPORTS
YUSHCHENKO'S DECISION TO DISMISS CABINET
Associated Press (AP), Kiev, Ukraine, Monday, September 12, 2005
KIEV, Ukraine-Russia's ambassador to Ukraine called President Viktor
Yushchenko's decision to dismiss the government "courageous" and said
Monday that he hoped the country's political crisis would be resolved soon.
"The president of Ukraine made a courageous move and put everything in its
place and the president should not be reproached," Ambassador Viktor
Chernomyrdin said at a news conference. He urged Ukraine's leaders to act
fast to form a new government.
Yushchenko dismissed the Cabinet led by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko
on Thursday and accepted the resignation of his close ally, security chief
Petro Poroshenko, amid accusations of corruption and infighting between
rival groups in the administration.
Yushchenko also suggested Sunday that Tymoshenko's government acted
in favor of certain business groups. Poroshenko also has been accused of
lobbying for business interests. "The president cannot and should not
tolerate (this)," Chernomyrdin said.
He praised Russian-born Yuriy Yekhanurov, the little-known regional
governor tapped to replace Tymoshenko as prime minister, calling him a
highly skilled economist. He expressed hope that Yekhanurov would be
involved "more in actual work than politics," hinting at Tymoshenko's
strong political ambitions.
Chernomyrdin said the current political crisis an "internal matter" which
should not affect relations with Russia. "Our main task is to keep building
our relations," he said.
In a sign that Ukraine was focusing more attention on Russia, Yushchenko's
new chief-of-staff Oleh Rybachuk was headed to Moscow on Monday on a
two-day working visit. Rybachuk was due to meet with his Russian
counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, the powerful chief of President Vladimir
Putin's administration, Yushchenko's press service said.
Chernomyrdin said Putin is expected to come to Ukraine on an official visit
in late October. Relations between Moscow and Kiev had been chilly under
Tymoshenko's leadership. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report (AUR)]
==============================================================
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9. RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST GLEB PAVLOVSKY SAYS CHANGE
IN UKRAINE WILL BENEFIT RUSSIA AND THE WEST
RIA Novosti, Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, September 14, 2005
MOSCOW - The dismissal of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko and the forming of a new government will benefit both
Russia and the West, the head of a Kremlin friendly think tank said.
"Russia will have a partner with whom it can at least reach an agreement
on natural gas policy for next year," said Gleb Pavlovsky, head of the
Effective Policy Foundation.
However, a change of government does not imply the beginning of
rapprochement with Russia, but a move closer to NATO, he said.
"Claims that Tymoshenko has emerged the winner are not supported by
the polls," Pavlovksy said, noting that polls have President Viktor
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko at equal popularity levels.
"As a premier, Tymoshenko was unique, but as a member of the
opposition, she is one of many," he said. On Sept. 9, Yushchenko
dismissed Tymoshenko and her government, saying it had become
ineffective due to infighting. -30-
==============================================================
10. IRISH INVESTORS URGED TO CONSIDER UKRAINE
Business World, Ireland, Friday, September 09, 2005
IRELAND - Irish investors should not be discouraged doing business with
Ukraine on foot of the current government crisis, a leading businessman has
said.
Brendan Murphy of the Ukraine Ireland Business & Trade Association said
the dismissal by Ukraine President Yuschenko of the Government of Ukraine
should be seen as part of the ongoing and dramatic efforts to root out
corruption and introduce European standards of government in the country.
"Many who do not know Ukraine would be forgiven in thinking that Ukraine is
a poor place and a bad bet for investment," said Murphy.
"Nothing could be further from the truth and for the last two years we have
been encouraging business and trade links between Ireland and Ukraine, as
opportunities and returns are very attractive."
Murphy pointed to Yuschenko's efforts since his election, including sacking
and replacing 16,000 civil servants, disbanding the Transport Police,
reversing corrupt privatisations and now sacking the whole government on
foot of allegations of corruption involving a senior minister and government
advisors.
"As commentators talk darkly of a corrupt regime, I would ask them to
contrast the actions of President Yuschenko with the actions of western
governments, including Ireland, whose anti corruption measures appear
somewhat pale and insipid," he said.
Murphy called on investors to take the time to examine opportunities in the
country more closely. -30-
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: http://www.businessworld.ie/bworld/index.html
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11. MINISTRIES OF CULTURAL AND EDUCATION IN UKRAINE AGREE
TO SUPPORT UKRAINIAN LANGUAGE AND CULTURE IN AUSTRALIA
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), No. 559, Article 11
Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, September 15, 2005
KYIV - Ukraine has agreed to Australian Federation of Ukrainian
Organisations (AFUO) proposals for the support Ukrainian language
maintenance and cultural programs in Australia.
Following meetings with senior Ministry of Culture officials and with the
Deputy Minster for Education Mr. Zebrowsky, AFUO Chairman Stefan
Romaniw OAM told Morgan Williams, editor of The Action Ukraine
Report (AUR), he has obtained undertakings for closer and practical
working relations.
MINISTRY OF CULTURE
Romaniw said, "The Ministry for Culture will conduct training programs
for a range of areas in the arts. Members of the Australian Ukrainian
community are encouraged to participate."
The training and development programs will be conducted for 7-14 day
period, depending on the area. The Ukrainian Government will cover the
cost of all training courses, accommodation and ground costs in Ukraine.
Participants must cover their travel to Ukraine
The first series will commence in October 2005:
Mid October – Fine Arts. Painting and other elements
Mid November - Choral instructors, Directors, and Singing Groups
End of November - Choreographers, Dance Instructors
Final details are now being worked out and will be available shortly. The
AFUO will disseminate this information and will place all details on its
website.
The Ministry has also agreed to enter negotiations to examine possibilities
for national screening of Zalizna Sotnia the first Australia Ukraine project
funded by Yuri Borec and directed by Oles Yanchuk. Legal issues are now
being examined.
Mr. Romaniw told The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) he met with Mr. Yanchuk
to provide details of the Ministry of Culture’s proposals. The Ministry has
also agreed to examine proposals for sending a cultural group from Ukraine
in 2006 in response the Embassy of Ukraine in Australia’s request.
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION
A recent meeting between Ukraine’s Deputy Minster for Education , Monash
University Vice Chancellor Prof Larkins AO and AFUO Chairman Stefan
Romaniw examined a number of proposals for future cooperation.
The AFUO Chairman has had follow up discussions with the Deputy Minister
who has expressed enthusiasm for cooperation between the two countries.
The AFUO proposed an annual Ukrainian School Visitation Program to Ukraine.
The AFUO will work with the Ukrainian Education Council of Australia to
prepare a position paper and proposals for the program to commence in 2006.
The Deputy Minister also requested the AFUO to present an options paper for
the AFUO proposed international project for development of a Methodology,
curriculum and materials development Program or the study of Ukraine
abroad. A similar program has been initiated by the Government of Greece.
AUSTRALIAN DIPLOMATIC POST NEEDED IN KYIV
“These are now concrete proposals that will see direct links between Ukraine
and Australia” Mr. Stefan Romaniw said. “Upon returning to Australia we will
be speaking to relevant Ministry’s on Federal and State and Territory level
to further these programs and enhance cooperation” Mr. Romaniw said
“Collectively we now continue to build bridges” Mr. Romaniw said. “The
presence of an Australian Diplomatic post in Kyiv is becoming a real
necessity as this activity grows” Mr. Romaniw said
“We will be presenting all these outcomes to our Minister for Foreign
Affairs the Hon Alexander Downer and requesting the Australian Government
take action to redefine Ukraine’s strategic position in Australia’s foreign
policy and take steps to open a post in Kyiv “ Mr. Romaniw reported to
Morgan Williams, Editor, The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) when they
met last week in Kyiv. -30-
=============================================================
12. GOVERNOR OF THE VOLYN OBLAST SUPPORTS THE NORTH
AMERICAN TOUR OF THE VOLYN UKRAINIAN SONG & DANCE CO
Tour to begin on November 1, 2005
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), No. 559, Article 12
Washington, D.C., Thursday, September 15, 2005
KYIV - The president of Ablaze Productions, Leonid L. Oleksiuk, of Toronto,
Canada, met in Ukraine with Volyn Oblast Governor Volodymyr Bondar and
his staff in July for the purpose of finalizing an agreement with the Volyn
Oblast Administration regarding the Volyn Ukrainian Song & Dance
Company's upcoming, North American Tour, slated to commence on
November 1, 2005.
Mr. Oleksiuk reported to Morgan Williams, Editor of The Action Ukraine
Report (AUR) that upon reviewing the proposal, Gov. Bondar agreed to
support the Volyn Ukrainian Song & Dance Company's North American
Tour by contributing the funds necessary to offset the cost of the airline
tickets for the 53 performers traveling to North America.
Ablaze Productions, in return, committed to help develop publicity in North
America that will help generate travel and tourism for the Volyn Oblast, Mr.
Oleksiuk stated.
Prior to the North America, the Company will tour Hungary for 7 days, and on
January 18, 2006, the Volyn Ukrainian Song & Dance Company will travel to
Oman for 30 appearances in that country.
Many experts consider this group to be one of the premiere companies in
the genre of Ukrainian song and dance. The Volyn Ukrainian Song & Dance
Company is known to represent Ukraine's best folkloric art and traditions
wherever they perform.
Mr. Oleksiuk explained to the editor of The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) it
is the goal of the Volyn Ukrainian Song & Dance Company and Ablaze
Productions to make the most of these tours and the mass media coverage
which accompanies such tours, to project a strong, positive image of
Ukraine.
Using the previous experience gained in the production of the Virsky
Ukrainian National Dance Company's 1998 North American Tour, Ablaze
Productions will utilize this experience in promoting Ukraine's top talent
around the world according to Mr. Oleksiuk. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: For further information contact Leonid L. Oleksiuk, Abaze
Productions, 3 Lakeshore Blvd., West, Toronto, ON M8V 1B8 T.
Tel: 416-521-9555, e-mail: leo@ablaze-productions.com
=============================================================
13. ADOPTION OF A PROPORTIONAL PREFERENTIAL BALLOT SYSTEM
Democratic reform back on the agenda
LETTER-TO-THE-EDITOR: By Anthony van der Craats, Australia
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), No. 559, Article 13
Washington, D.C., Thursday, September 15, 2005
It is with ongoing interest that I read of recent changes to Ukraine’s
Government and the dismissal of Yulia Tymoshenko.
Whilst there is still much to digest as events unfold I wish to indicate my
support, whilst maintaining skepticism for Yulia Tymoshenko decision to
reconsider proposals for constitutional reform that seek to move Ukraine
from a Presidential to Parliamentary Democracy.
Constitutional reform as originally proposed and narrowly defeated was
worthy of consideration and overall support. Its defeat was solely due to
the opportunistic desire for power of some individuals and not necessarily
in the best long term interest of Ukraine.
Recent events and Yulia Tymoshenko’s indication that she would re-consider
further Constitutional reform are a welcomed opportunity for additional fine
tuning and strengthening of Ukraine’s future Parliamentary democracy.
In reconsidering issues of Constitutional reform consideration should be
given to strengthening Ukraine’s electoral system and the adoption of a
proportional preferential ballot system as opposed to the current "Party
List" system. A preferential ballot would facilitate better representation
whilst maintaining and building a system of fair democratic elections.
With the ongoing shift to a parliamentary democracy and a reduction in the
authority and power of Ukraine’s President it would be acceptable to also
reconsider the method of appointment of Ukraine’s Head of State with
preference given to a system of appointment by a 75% statutory majority of
the elected Parliament as opposed to a direct election.
If a direct election model is to be maintained than consideration should be
given to the adoption of a single preferential ballot as opposed to the
current multiple ballot system.
Under a preferential ballot model voters would be given the opportunity to
express a preference (1, 2, 3 etc) to candidates in order of their support.
If a candidate was unsuccessful in receiving the required 50% +1 majority
then candidates with minimal support would be eliminated and the allocated
votes redistributed according to the voters expressed preference until a
candidate is successful in receiving a majority of votes.
A preferential ballot as opposed to the existing first-past-the-post system
would remove the need and expense of a run-off ballot and would further
facilitate the development democracy in Ukraine.
Yulia Tymoshenko's statement be it for the right or wrong reasons provides
once again a opportunity for reflection and reform of Ukraine's
constitutional electoral system which could become a model for other
developing countries. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anthony van der Craats, Australia, anthony.vandercraats@bigpond.com
=============================================================
14. FORMATION OF WORLD JEWISH PARLIAMENT ANNOUNCED IN KYIV
Ukrinform, Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, September 12, 2005
KYIV - During the International Forum "World Jewish Community against
terrorism", which took place in Kyiv on Sunday, President of the Ukrainian
Jewish Community Vadym Rabinovych has announced Jewish Communities
desire to form the World Jewish Parliament.
The Parliament will be engaged primarily with Middle East problems
settlement, fighting against terrorism, xenophobia, fascism, international
enmity. This decision was supported by all the forum delegates.
Later on, during the solemn speech at the ceremony to inauguration of the
monument to the victims of the September 11, 2001 and world terrorist
attacks, Head of the Eurasian Jewish Congress Oleksandr Myshkovych
said that Kyiv was purposely chosen to be a venue of the International
Forum "World Jewish Community against terrorism". He refers to Ukraine
as tolerant and indulgent to all nations. -30-
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15. U.S. FUND FOR CIVIL STUDIES AND DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
ACTIVELY SUPPORTING UKRAINIAN RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS
Will sponsor major conference in Kyiv in October
Hanna Snigur-Hrabovska, Ukrinform, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
KYIV - Charles T. Owens, President of the US-based Fund for Civil Studies
and Development [U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation],
told a Thursday press conference in Kyiv, which was staged on the occasion
of the 10th anniversary of the Fund's activities in Ukraine, that the Fund
will continue actively supporting Ukrainian research institutions.
Since 1996, Mr Owens noted, the Fund has provided 517 grants to the tune
of 10.5 M. USD to financially support over 2,000 Ukrainian researchers and
scientists. Ukraine is among the Fund's chief partners, Mr Owens noted, so
we will try to do more in Ukraine.
As Mr Owens disclosed, the Fund intends to sponsor a major conference in
Kyiv in October, to which parliamentarians and government officials will be
invited and which will address problems of Ukrainian scientists and
researchers.
According to Andriy Hurzhyi, First Deputy Education & Science Minister, the
Fund will finance, among other projects, programs for commercializing
applied researches and studies, as well as those, meant for broader
involvement in studies of young researchers and females. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOITE: For further information contact: Marilyn L. Pifer, Ph.D., Senior
Technical Advisor and Senior Program Manager, Basic Research and
Higher Education Program, U.S. Civilian Research and Development
Foundation, 1530 Wilson Blvd, Suite 300, Arlington, VA 22209,
703-526-6778, fax 703-526-9721. mpifer@crdf.org
LINK: http://www.crdf.org/Centers/brhe.html
=============================================================
16. THE ORANGE REVOLUTION: ROUND TWO
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY: By Tammy Lynch
Behind the Breaking News: A briefing from the
Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology & Policy
Boston University, Boston, MA, Wednesday, September 14, 2005
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko opened the parliamentary election
campaign by firing Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, sparking debate as to
whether this action would instigate open war between the two or whether the
former Orange Revolution partners would find a way to coexist peacefully.
Signals suggest that war will be the mode of operation until the
parliamentary elections in March.
The war scenario could provide new life to those who appeared so discredited
just eight months ago, while disillusioning a citizenry that had just begun
to believe in a government “for the people.”
However, this scenario should concern Western officials. Yushchenko should
be made to understand that strong actions, not just words, are necessary to
demonstrate his commitment to honest, fair, accountable government. At the
moment, a perception is developing—true or not—that this commitment may be
wavering. This perception has grown in part, because Yushchenko has chosen
to attack his former prime minister in lieu of aggressively examining
corruption allegations leveled at his closest aides.
On Tuesday, Yushchenko lashed out at Tymoshenko, suggesting that she had
attempted to use her position to eliminate $1.5 billion in debts that he
said had been incurred by a company she owned in the 1990s. (1) The company,
United Energy Systems of Ukraine (UES), made Tymoshenko one of the richest
people in the country–although some observers suggest Tymoshenko walked the
edge of the law to gather much of that money.
UES was broken up by government officials during the Kuchma era after
Tymoshenko began an opposition movement against the then-president. Both
Russian and Kuchma-controlled Ukrainian law enforcement bodies attempted to
jail Tymoshenko at that time, based on events surrounding, among other
things, the debts of UES. While he was in parliament, Yushchenko fought
these efforts.
Tymoshenko claimed strenuously that all charges against her were politically
motivated, and despite years of investigation, neither Russian nor Kuchma
officials publicly produced any credible evidence to the contrary. For his
part, Viktor Yushchenko stated his support for Tymoshenko–until now.
Tymoshenko quickly responded to Yushchenko’s charge, saying that her company
had no debts to forgive. She suggested that Yushchenko was “picking up
[former President Leonid] Kuchma’s baton and trying to get rid of me in the
same way.” (2) Her statement is given some added, if possibly coincidental,
credibility by a recent meeting between Acting Prime Minister Yuriy
Yekhanurov and former President Leonid Kuchma in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine.
The two, according to the Financial Times, “greeted each other with broad
smiles and kisses on the cheek.” (3) Later, Kuchma praised Yushchenko’s
decision to fire the cabinet, calling it “absolutely correct,” and calling
on his supporters not to oppose the president. (4) The specter of Kuchma as
Yushchenko’s new ally and Tymoshenko as his new opponent will undoubtedly
raise the eyebrows of many who protested on Yushchenko’s behalf as he stood
hand-in-hand with Tymoshenko against Kuchma during the Orange Revolution.
The financial questions about Tymoshenko and UES may or may not be true,
and should be independently investigated. It is worth noting, however, that
Yushchenko's claim appeared on the same day that Tymoshenko suggested
she will run against him for president in 2009 and contradicts Yushchenko’s
earlier statements that he had wanted Tymoshenko to remain in his
government. It therefore could be perceived as persecution against an
opponent rather than an honest attempt to root out corruption.
With these recriminations against Tymoshenko, it is easy to forget that the
political crisis that ended in her dismissal began not with corruption
charges against her, but with corruption charges against the president’s
closest aides.
On 3 September, Yushchenko’s Chief of Staff and former Campaign Manager
Oleksandr Zinchenko resigned, charging that the president’s closest aides
were corrupt. In particular, Zinchenko singled out National Security and
Defense Council Secretary Petro Poroshenko, Presidential Aide Oleksandr
Tretyakov, and the head of Yushchenko’s political party, Mykola Martynenko.
Zinchenko’s statement has not been distributed extensively throughout the
mainstream Western press. Below is a rather long but illustrative passage:
“A small group of adventurists is trying to take advantage of the
achievements of last autumn, of the wishes and desires of the entire people,
or the heroic efforts of the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian patriots.
They have set up their own clan, they have orchestrated an information
blockade of the president and pushed him into a virtual, unreal world, they
have cynically twisted the real situation, neglecting the hopes of their
compatriots. Step by step they are implementing their plan to use power
for their own enrichment, to privatize and grab everything they can.
They want a monopoly, they want to take over instruments of power as soon
as they can. … I will name just a few. The secretary of the National
Security and Defense Council Petro Poroshenko, first presidential aide
Tretyakov, and some of their partners, such as Martynenko, are cynically
implementing their scenario of using power for their own purposes.
This scenario has the following main points: property, judiciary,
law-enforcement agencies, personnel policy, media and power. It was
Poroshenko who insisted on, and finally managed to illegally subordinate the
judiciary to the National Security and Defense Council, even though it is by
definition independent.
“I asked the president several times to stop Poroshenko. At [my] last
meetings with Yushchenko, removing Poroshenko and his team from their posts
was the condition of my further work in the president’s team. … Why didn’t I
speak about this earlier? Under the circumstances, I tried to preserve the
unity of the team. … But everyone has a choice. One can put up with this and
share the profits. … I cannot and do not want to put up with this shameful
violation of the law. I made my choice at Independence Square.” (5)
Zinchenko’s charges were unsurprising to many observers of Yushchenko’s
administration. For months, some Western officials privately complained of
the growing influence of Poroshenko and Tretyakov, at the expense of the
prime minister’s office, and have been concerned about persistent signs,
although unproven, that Poroshenko was mixing politics with business.
However, they had expressed the hope that the situation could be dealt with
quietly, without damaging the fragile trust given to Yushchenko and
Tymoshenko by the voters of Ukraine. This was not to be the case.
Charges by Zinchenko and others against Poroshenko included that he
and/or his allies had pressured judges for verdicts in his or his friends’
favor, had circumvented customs regulations to receive favorable conditions
for his business products, and had brokered a deal for the sale of a
television station to an ally by using threats of legal persecution.
Poroshenko
strenuously denied all of these charges, but the damage was done.
It soon became clear that Poroshenko would need to resign. He did so, but
only when the cabinet also was dismissed–a decision that shifted the focus
away from him.
When announcing the cabinet’s dismissal, Yushchenko cited a need to end the
public turf battles that had developed between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko,
and accused the government (which was interpreted to mean Tymoshenko) of
lacking “team spirit.” He suggested that Tymoshenko’s policies had led to a
drop in economic growth, and that she had bungled the reprivatization of
enterprises that previously were sold illegally. At the same time, he
announced Poroshenko’s resignation and Tretyakov’s suspension, but
noted that he believed the charges against them were “groundless.” (6)
Yushchenko’s comments also made clear that it was not corruption or
economic concerns, but politics, that eventually led to Tymoshenko’s
dismissal. He lamented that, following three days of intensive negotiations,
he had made an agreement with Tymoshenko that would have kept her
in the prime minister’s chair.
But at the last minute, he said, she had pulled out. “Yesterday, I spent all
day and night trying to produce the best possible answer–if the team spirit
does exist, we should remain together. Such an agreement was reached.
Unfortunately, things changed overnight. But it was not I who changed them,”
he said. (7)
Individuals close to the negotiations suggest Yushchenko’s team was
concerned that the government balance of power would shift to Tymoshenko if
Poroshenko resigned. Therefore, they insisted on a signed guarantee that she
would support Yushchenko in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential
elections before announcing Poroshenko’s resignation.
This contention seems to be supported by Yushchenko’s new Chief of Staff
Oleksandr Rybachuk. “A formula of political cooperation with quotas,
agreements and guarantees for the forthcoming parliamentary elections, which
gives a clear outlook for the next five years” was developed, he said, but
not signed by Tymoshenko. Therefore, “Yushchenko had no choice, but to
accept the Cabinet’s resignation.” (8)
Tymoshenko in turn complained that she could not sign an agreement in which
Yushchenko could veto anyone’s inclusion on the electoral list, even her
closest allies, for a campaign in which Poroshenko may continue to play a
pivotal role. (9)
She also suggested that Yushchenko was frustrated that she would neither
publicly denounce Zinchenko nor express confidence in those he had accused.
“The first condition is that I have to extend my hand not to the president
but to his team–Poroshenko, Martynenko, Tretyakov, Bezsmertnyy–that I should
give them my hand,” she said. “But how could I extend my hand to them if
their hands are constantly busy stealing something?” (10)
She emphasized that she did not believe the president himself was corrupt,
and has gone out of her way in public statements to separate him from “his
environment.” Regardless, the details of these negotiations suggest that
economic concerns and corruption charges against Tymoshenko were not
foremost in anyone’s mind as her fate was being decided.
By replacing the strong-willed prime minister with an unquestioning, close
ally, Yushchenko will likely reach his goal to create a more unified public
government face. But what of the corruption allegations against his aides?
Many within Ukraine questioned whether the cabinet’s dismissal was a pretext
to divert attention from the corruption charges, or even more, to weaken a
potential rival just six months before pivotal parliamentary elections. Now,
Yushchenko’s new allegations against Tymoshenko, made public after he was
asked about the decision to fire her, and echoing those brought during the
discredited Kuchma administration, raise new doubts.
If Yushchenko fired Tymoshenko because she was corrupt, why was his first
choice for her to remain in his government? Why did he wait more than four
days to mention this particular concern? Why, when discussing this alleged
corruption, does he not also refer to the allegations against his aides?
And most importantly, why was it necessary to replace the cabinet now, weeks
before the deadline for completion of negotiations for entrance into the
World Trade Organization, and days before the 2006 budget must be
submitted to parliament?
Some commentators and analysts have simply sighed with relief that the
public battles between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko will now be over. But
was it necessary to dismiss the entire cabinet to end these battles? Could
Yushchenko have better defined the duties of his team, asserted his
authority, dealt with corruption within his own administration and preserved
the unity of the governing coalition?
Other commentators have cheered that Tymoshenko’s “populist” politics will
end. Clearly, Tymoshenko deserves some criticism–particularly for her often
rash handling of the “reprivatization” issue. However, it is important to
note that many economic policies now criticized by Yushchenko were
originally supported, either partially or wholly, by him. (11)
While Tymoshenko certainly made mistakes and enemies, she did not make
all of them alone. And it is unfair to suggest that everything she did was
incorrect or that every negative event should be attributable solely to her.
Regardless of Tymoshenko’s negatives or positives, the Ukrainian president
must remember that the crisis that ended with her dismissal began with
corruption allegations against others. Yushchenko should ensure an
independent investigation of the charges against Tymoshenko, and if
evidence is found to support the charges, she should be prosecuted.
If no evidence is found, she should not. He must do the same for the charges
against his aides. Each individual, whether friend or opponent, should have
equal access to findings of both guilt and innocence. Selective prosecution
or non-prosecution must be a thing of the past. So far, the president’s
efforts have raised some concerns.
Yushchenko said he will personally oversee the investigation into all
corruption claims–even apparently those involving Poroshenko, who is a
long-time friend and the godfather to one of his children. The president has
ordered a quickly formed “state commission” to present its findings on “who
in this country is involved in corruption” in ten days. (12)
The Security Service will reportedly announce “first conclusions” this week.
Oversight of a corruption investigation by the president, in a country with
a history of political interference in law enforcement, sends a dubious and
perhaps unintended signal. This is especially true when the president has
already given his personal assessment of the claims.
The corruption crisis has the potential to undermine Western trust. But more
important, it has the potential to disillusion the hundreds of thousands of
Ukrainians who stood in the cold for weeks listening to Yushchenko promise
an end to lawlessness. In a new democracy, disillusionment, apathy, and
anger are destructive.
In the months following the Orange Revolution, Ukraine made some important
strides on its path to democracy. The press is freer. The number of private
entrepreneurs has risen, as the environment is slowly cleared of
bureaucracy. State salaries have increased and are now paid on time.
Investment is gradually improving. Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and their allies
should be commended for this progress.
It is this progress that, ironically, allowed the current crisis to develop.
A corruption scandal could never have toppled anyone last year in Ukraine.
This year, the uncensored media reaction to Zinchenko’s charges, the
monitoring of government activity, the pressure from international
organizations being courted by Ukraine, and most of all, the understanding
by many government officials that they must be accountable, all forced the
government to act.
Ukraine is not the same place in 2005 that it was in 2004. A stronger signal
from Yushchenko that he will not abide corruption anywhere around him would
demonstrate that progress is continuing, and would once again confirm the
Ukrainian people’s faith in him. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report]
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOURCE NOTES:
(1) Associated Press, 13 September 2005; via (http://abcnews.go.com).
(2) Associated Press, 13 September 2005; via (http://www.macon.com).
(3) Financial Times, 12 September 2005, “Kuchma backs Yushchenko in
Ukraine Turmoil,” p. 6.
(4) Ibid, and TV 5 Kanal, 10 September 2005, 1300 GMT; via ProQuest.
(5) TV Kanal 5, 5 September 2005, 1200 CET; via ProQuest.
(6) TV 5 Kanal, 8 September 2005, 0940 GMT; BBC Monitoring, 8
September 2005, via The Action Ukraine Report, 9 September 2005.
(7) Ibid.
(8) ForUm, 13 September 2005, 1525 GMT; via (http://en.for-ua.com).
(9) Ukrayinska Pravda, 9 September 2005, 1329 CET; via
(http://www.pravda.com.ua).
(10) Ibid.
(11) For comments by Yushchenko on the government’s economic policies,
including oil and meat pricing, and social spending, see Ukrayina Moloda,
28 April 2005, p. 8-10.
(12) Interfax-Ukraine News Agency, 1550 CET, 11 September 2005; BBC
Monitoring, via ProQuest.
=============================================================
17. UKRAINE'S ORANGE REVOLUTION
Government May Finally Function, Say Canadian Observers
News Story by Christopher Buly
Embassy, Canada's Foreign Policy Newsweekly
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Wed, September 14th, 2005
The earthquake that rocked Ukrainian politics last week may finally repair
the "deep structural problem" in Ukraine's government, says a University of
Ottawa political scientist.
While last year's Orange Revolution put Ukraine on a new and open path to
democracy, President Viktor Yushchenko's government never evolved and has
been "disappointing," according to Dominique Arel, who holds the Chair of
Ukrainian Studies at the U of O.
"I thought the first 100 days of the Yushchenko administration would be
absolutely momentous - that there would be profound changes taking
advantage of the honeymoon period of a new president and signaling a
new era in Ukrainian politics," says Prof. Arel.
"But it didn't happen - and it got worse." He explains that the absence of
clear lines of authority between the president's office and Cabinet led to
"two parallel governments trying to run the country."
That "dysfunctional" political situation will be addressed if Ukraine's new
constitution is implemented in January and devolves several powers from
the president to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's Parliament).
But Prof. Arel says that some change may already take place in light of the
"positive developments" from President Yushchenko's decision last week to
cut what he called the "Gordian knot" that has entrapped the Ukrainian
government.
On Sept. 8, the president fired Petro Poroshenko, the Secretary of the
National Security and Defence Council, who wielded tremendous power in
Mr. Yushchenko's office over Ukraine's military, police and intelligence
services.
The same day, the president sacked his Orange ally, Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko, and appointed in her place the governor of the eastern province
of Dnipropetrovsk, Yuri Yekhanurov, a 57-year-old former economics minister,
a long-time Yushchenko loyalist and an ethnic Buryat.
Borys Wrzesnewskyj, an Ontario Liberal MP of Ukrainian descent who has
traveled to Ukraine nine times over the past year, says he's pleased that
the 51-year-old president had the "fortitude to do what it took" to end the
political "stalemate" in Ukraine.
But Mr. Wrzesnewskyj (pronounced Jes-nev-ski), who represents the riding
of Etobicoke Centre in the House of Commons, wasn't entirely surprised.
Just five days before the shake-up, Oleksandr Zinchenko, who as Ukraine's
State Secretary served as Mr. Yushchenko's chief of staff, resigned and
leveled charges of corruption against senior officials, including Mr.
Poroshenko, who attended the news conference at which Mr. Zinchenko
made his announcement.
Mr. Wrzesnewskyj says he gave Prime Minister Paul Martin's office a "heads
up" on what he saw as "big changes" to soon follow on Ukraine's political
landscape. It was clear to him that President Yushchenko's first official
visit to Canada, tentatively scheduled to begin on Oct. 24, would be
cancelled.
But it was also apparent to Mr. Wrzesnewskyj -- who considers Mr.
Yushchenko, Ms. Tymoshenko and other members of her former Cabinet
his friends -- that "shifting allegiances" and the "terrible infighting"
that sparked Mr. Zinchenko's resignation and accusations required the
president to make some "tough decisions" and "clean house" to get
the stalled Ukrainian government functioning.
"There were basically two centres of gravity based on either personal
enrichment or personal political advancement," explains Mr. Wrzesnewskyj,
who led three Canadian parliamentary delegations last year to monitor
Ukraine's presidential election, and was among the 500 Canadian observers
at the final run-off on Dec. 26.
"Poroshenko seemed to be taking advantage of his position for business
purposes and Tymoshenko was having difficulty moving beyond some of the
politics."
Mr. Wrzesnewskyj says that before Mr. Yushchenko sacked Prime Minister
Tymoshenko, the president was "cajoling" and "pleading" with members of
the Cabinet last week to get the government back on track.
Instead, Ms. Tymoshenko -- at loggerheads with Mr. Poroshenko over economic
issues since she became prime minister -- informed Mr. Yushchenko that she
would resign her post. Other Cabinet members followed suit with their own
intentions to leave.
Given the upheaval, President Yushchenko said "that's it" and dismissed the
Cabinet, according to Mr. Wrzesnewskyj. He says that with Mr. Yekhanurov (a
"very capable administrator") in place as acting prime minister, the
Ukrainian government now requires a cabinet composed of "very competent
administrators as opposed to people with tremendous political ambitions."
In a televised speech last Friday, Ms. Tymoshenko, 44, indicated she would
lead her opposition bloc into the parliamentary election in March, and is
almost certain to run for the presidency four years from now.
"A normal part of a political process in any democracy is that allegiances
at certain points will cease to exist," says Mr. Wrzesnewskyj.
"Just think back to a recent era in Canada," he adds, referring to the
situation in his own party when Paul Martin announced his intention to seek
the federal Liberal leadership after leaving former prime minister Jean
Chrétien's cabinet.
But while Ms. Tymoshenko's current popularity in Ukraine may eclipse Mr.
Yushchenko's, the common goal she shared with her former ally in taking the
country into a new era will soon be tested when Ukrainians go to the polls
in March to elect parliamentarians in a new proportional representation
system, says Prof. Arel.
"It's going to be a close election," he warns. "And if her bloc,
Yushchenko's Our Ukraine party and the Socialist Party win a majority, it
will be interesting to see to what extent Tymoshenko will be loyal when it
really counts."
Organizing a conference on Ukraine to be held at the University of Ottawa
from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1, Prof. Arel says it's important that Canada send a
"significant" delegation of monitors to observe the March election in
Ukraine.
He explains that while there's no reason to expect the massive fraud and
corruption witnessed during last year's presidential race, the temptation to
exert "administrative pressure" over political rivals still exists. "Ukraine
hasn't turned that corner yet," says Prof. Arel, "and we have to watch that
carefully." -30- (Link: www.embassymag.ca)
=============================================================
18. DESPITE POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE, YUSHCHENKO AND RIVAL
TYMOSHENKO LIKELY TO REUNITE AFTER NEXT ELECTION
INTERVIEW: with Adrian Karatnycky
By Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
New York, NY; Washington, D.C. Tue, September 13, 2005
Ukrainian expert Adrian Karatnycky says President Viktor Yushchenko
fired his entire cabinet, including his prime minister, the popular Yulia
Tymoshenko, to end a brewing political crisis precipitated by charges of
corruption, but with roots in the politicking leading up to next March's
parliamentary elections.
"I think the real precipitant for this is the approaching political
calendar," says Karatnycky, counselor and senior scholar at Freedom House.
"Both sides are maneuvering for the election period, but both sides
understand that they may need to cooperate after the [March parliamentary]
election in shaping a new government. It will be very hard for either of
them, without taking very unsavory allies from the old regime, to put
together a stable majority."
Karatnycky was interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman, consulting editor for
www.cfr.org, on September 13, 2005.
Everyone cheered when Viktor Yushchenko became president after the so-
called Orange Revolution late last year, but as often happens in countries
that aren't on the front burner in the United States, many people here have
lost track of what's been going on since then.
[Gwertzman] Recently, our attention was caught by stories about Yushchenko's
complete purge of his government amidst charges of corruption. Can we just
run through what's been going on in Ukrainesince Yushchenko's government
took over in January this year?
[Karatnycky] Well, the first thing that has to be said is that the Orange
Revolution brought about a very disparate array of political forces all with
one aim-to get rid of the previously corrupt and authoritarian government
and to replace it with something a little less crooked and a lot less
authoritarian.
I think that coalition held for the task at hand, which was to achieve
power. But it was an unwieldy coalition from the start. You had people with
liberal, free economic views; you had people with more populist economic
views; you had people with more radical views about how to deal with the
legacies of the past; you had people who thought-not quite that they should
be swept under the rug-but that the country should just move forward and the
problems of the past should not become the central preoccupation of the
current government.
All of them came into the government; they occupied different levels of
office. The government tended to move in a more populist direction and was
fed by a lot of the people who had done the organizing of the people-power
[Orange] revolution. So you had a government with an array of technocrats
and an array of revolutionaries, and that's a very unwieldy long-term
proposition.
That's the real reason why matters came to a head; these differences, in a
sense, led to a stalemate in policy. The stalemate centered on economic
policy. The government had been very effective under [former Prime Minister]
Yulia Tymoshenko [who was forced to resign last week]. It was very effective
in bringing in revenues; they've increased income from taxes by $4 billion
in the first six months.
This was done not by increasing taxes but by just getting effective
compliance and getting rid of the corruption schemes that exempted a lot of
businesses. But where did this money go? Most of it went to increases in
social spending for the poor and for workers. From the point of view of
virtue, that perhaps is a desirable aim. But from the point of view of
generating economic growth, many people in the business community were
unhappy there was less spent on infrastructure and on tax incentives for
business.
All these matters were precipitated when the chief of staff of the
president, Oleksandr Zinchenko-a very able man-accused others in the
president's office but not the president himself and not the majority of the
president's entourage, including the national security adviser, of
corruption. Thus far, he has not backed up any of the claims with
documentation, as far as I know. But what he did actually emphasize was
less corruption and more what I would call conflict of interest.
You've got a lot of new businessmen, who had been excluded from the old
government, and some of them are in the government now and many people
suspect they're using their offices to enrich and expand the interests of
their families, their clans, their associations. Similarly, the president
was suspicious that Mrs. Tymoshenko was using this to help her political
backers.
And all of this suspicion is going on in a period when you've got the March
parliamentary elections approaching, and in the March parliamentary
elections, there's a jockeying for position. I think the real precipitant
for this is the approaching political calendar. Yushchenko had the idea of
creating a single, unified coalition he would determine-and he wanted to
determine two-thirds of the candidates in this proportional election system
and give Yulia Tymoshenko a third.
I think the real disagreement was partly over policy, but also partly over
the sharing of assets and I think she felt, being equally popular as
Yushchenko was in public opinion polls, that she should determine half the
composition of the electoral bloc.
[Gwertzman] Tell us a bit about some of these personalities. Tell us about
Mrs. Tymoshenko. What is her background?
[Karatnycky] Yulia Tymoshenko is one of the most interesting, dramatic, and
charismatic political figures on the European scene. She is this incredibly
attractive, stylish woman in her mid-forties who speaks compellingly
dramatically-she has a real oratorical flair-and who is an extremely good
administrator in the sense of improving the effectiveness of government.
She knows how to move privatizations forward or stop them if she prefers;
she knows how to squeeze more money into the budget by making government
collections more effective. So she is an extremely valuable politician and
technocrat. She is a former businesswoman from the period where there was
a lot of corruption. She was basically the oil and energy "princess" in the
mid-1990s, when there was rampant corruption in Ukraine.
She basically cornered the market and had the largest energy-trading
company, which emerged out of nowhere and emerged partly out of the
support of the then-sitting prime minister, Pavlo Lazarenko, who is now in
a jail in San Francisco indicted charges of money-laundering hundreds of
millions of dollars.
[Gwertzman] So she's a wealthy woman?
[Karatnycky] She was a wealthy woman, although her last tax declaration
indicated she had $3,000 in interest income and made $6,000 as a
parliamentary deputy last year. So there are some questions about what
happened to all of her wealth. She claims that most of it was stripped away
by the old leadership and that she is living on rather modest means.
[Gwertzman] She was instrumental, I gather, in getting Yushchenko elected?
[Karatnycky] Well, Yushchenko was instrumental in getting himself elected.
She was very instrumental in building the support that helped create the
Orange Revolution. She helped Yushchenko get elected and they made a
political pact. She made the political pact because she knew that he, of all
people, was electable.
Her negatives prior to the Orange Revolution were extremely high. She had
maybe 50 percent positive and 50 percent negative ratings because the
earlier government had done a number on her. But as prime minister, she
reversed that and achieved popularity ratings that equal those of
Yushchenko.
Most people believe she had a real change of heart after she was jailed by
the former regime on charges of corruption. She spent a couple of months in
prison and then was released by a judge while the investigation was going
on. She was dismissed as deputy prime minister; much of her wealth was
stripped from her.
I think she wanted political revenge, but I think she also turned over a new
leaf in the late 1990s and removed herself from business. So in that sense,
she's had a very interesting political revolution.
[Gwertzman] She and the rest of her cabinet were sacked by Yushchenko?
[Karatnycky] Many of them will come back. There are two issues which I think
proved to be the final straw on why Yushchenko took the nuclear option and
dismissed the whole government. No. 1, he was going to dismiss his National
Security Adviser Petro Poroshenko, who is a "chocolate baron" of Ukraine-he
runs the big confectionary chocolate business-and he was one of the
financial bankrollers of the Yushchenko campaign. He's also the godfather of
one of Yushchenko's children.
Poroshenko was charged with conflict of interest and corruption by the chief
of staff. Yushchenko was ready to dismiss him. But as he was dismissing
someone who had been a strong and loyal political backer, he wanted Yulia
Tymoshenko to shed some of her supporters in the government and replace
them-to do a kind of balancing act. In the end, from what I understand, she
refused the bargain and he-tired of the endless games and struggles with
her-decided to sack her.
Having said that, both sides are maneuvering for the election period, but
both sides understand that they may need to cooperate after the election in
shaping a new government. It will be very hard for either of them, without
taking very unsavory allies from the old regime, to put together a stable
majority. They probably need one another.
And the irony is, Yulia Tymoshenko, in the first months of her prime
minister-ship was pursuing a populist policy, [since then,]with growth rates
slowing down and a dialogue with the rest of the world, she was moderating
those policies and moving toward a more market-oriented position.
This would mean that on economics, she would have fewer conflicts with the
president. It seems to me that, ironically, this conflict tosses everything
back into the hands of the Ukrainian people. They're going to have to make
a decision in the March parliamentary elections and it's very likely that
they're not going to fully decide between the two leaders.
[Gwertzman] She's going to run her own platform?
[Karatnycky] Yes, but she's saying it's not going to be in opposition to the
president, only in opposition to his crooked cronies, and she's leaving open
the door to potential political cooperation. In other words, she didn't want
to accept the weakening of her position and preferred to go to the outside
and fight for her place rather than negotiate her place with Yushchenko in a
subordinated position.
There's one other factor in this that we need to keep in mind: In March, the
juice in politics moves from Yushchenko toward the parliament. There will be
a constitutional change that will reduce the president's direct role in
shaping the government and it will be up to the parliament to haggle and put
forth the leadership.
So therefore, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko understand that in order for either
of them to have real power, they have to have the largest parliamentary
bloc. And that's what I think this whole dispute is about: Who will have the
largest parliamentary bloc? She wanted an equal bloc if it was to be
negotiated, he wanted the dominant bloc.
I think he also felt that if he pushes her out and links up with his own
political tendency that he stands a better chance than she does of coming
up as the main leader, both as president and through a loyal parliamentary
group.
[Gwertzman] Let's discuss Yushchenko. What kind of person is he?
[Karatnycky] I had the privilege of knowing the president for about six
years. I can say he's a person who has a unique merger of a modern,
forward-looking vision on the economy, while also being a kind of country
boy. He carried the urban-educated [vote], and he carried the rural vote
because he's sort of a religious guy, but doesn't wear religion on his
sleeve; he was very close to his mother who died the day before his
inauguration.
His father was in prison in Auschwitz and other concentration camps-a Soviet
Red Army guy who was put into forced labor. So he's lived through all the
tragedies from Stalinism to the Nazi occupation-his family lived through all
these things.
I would say Yushchenko is a guy who's really incorruptible. He is a guy who
has never attempted to merge government activity with business. He's not
gone the typical path of what most of these politicians do in power. He has
an American-born wife, who's taken Ukrainian citizenship, who worked in the
[Ronald] Reagan and first [George H.W.] Bush administration.
I think she worked in Ukraine as a consultant for Western companies and that
was the main source of income for the family over the last number of years.
But he has never dabbled in outside economic projects. He has the reputation
of being an extremely honest and capable guy. The focus groups and public
opinion polling that's been done show that people like him as a personality
but that he is too relaxed and passive and isn't a take-charge guy.
Well, he certainly seems to have done an awful lot in the last few weeks to
change that impression. My prediction is his ratings, which are already
pretty high, are actually going to go up because people were waiting to see
this guy take matters into his own hands.
[Gwertzman] So the purge of his government is actually going to help him
politically?
I think the purge will help him politically, but it actually puts it into
the hands of the Ukrainian people. Rather than having people behind a
closed door divide up the slots in a parliament in a more managed style
of parliamentary politics, you're going to end up with two major political
forces with some range of choice.
The real problem until this split in Ukraine was too much unity; that is to
say, not in the functioning of the government, but too much electoral power
in one group. The splitting of [this bloc] creates more opportunity for
transparency, and I think in the end, a little more sharpening of political
choice.
[Gwertzman] So the March 6 election is a crucial one?
[Karatnycky] Yes. It's pretty crucial, but as I say, even though there have
been these differentiations and a bit of bitterness, it's controlled
bitterness and it's controlled differentiation. I think it's within limits
and I do think it's possible for these two political tendencies to cooperate
on economic policy, should that become necessary.
Mrs. Tymoshenko feels she'll get a majority and be able to shape the
government. But most of the polling data indicate it will be very, very
close between those two groups and, put together, they'll be able to shape
a comfortable majority.
[Gwertzman] Is she still in parliament?
[Karatnycky] No she's not, because there's a law in Ukraine that requires
people who are taking executive positions to resign their parliament seats.
[Gwertzman] You indicated there's a constitutional amendment that's going
to take place?
[Karatnycky]There was a constitutional bargain that was agreed as part of
the roundtable talks that resolved the Orange Revolution crisis and led to
new elections. What that meant was there was going to be some modification
in where power to shape the government rests. And the power to shape the
government will go in the hands of parliamentary groups' consultations and
the recommendations will come from the parliament itself, not the president
trying to shape a coalition.
[Gwertzman] Let's talk about Ukraine's relations with the two big powers,
Russia and the United States.
[Karatnycky] Well, I would say as far as Ukraine 's concerned the two big
powers are the European Union and Russia-although I would say all the
vectors of Ukrainian foreign policy are one and integrated in trying to do
what is necessary. The president's new chief of staff and state secretary,
Oleh Rybacagk [Rybachuk], was the deputy secretary in charge of Euro-
integration and he is "Mr. European Integration." I think his designation
is a sign of real movement.
My sense is the European vector will be a very influential one. I think the
United States is important because of security issues, because Russia is
both an economic and security issue for the Ukraine. Europe is only an
economic issue. To balance it out, Ukraine does need some engagement
with the United States , and I think this leadership wants [Ukraine] to be
in NATO.
They certainly want to be in the EU [European Union] over the next ten or so
years, and they hope to do the right things to promote growth and to make
the right internal policies to make that happen.
My sense is that it's hard to know what Russia will do in the long term, but
Russia's choices, the choices for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin are a
bit tougher than they were before the election. If Putin moves now to seize
on the sort of transitional and conflictual nature of Ukrainian politics, he
will be strengthening Yulia Tymoshenko, who I think he believes is less
pragmatic and less technocratic than Mr. Yushchenko.
I don't think there is an option in Ukraine right now where, if there were
political or economic instability, some new force would arise. The choice is
between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko and, to my mind, the Russians would be
more nervous about the nature of a relationship with Yulia Tymoshenko than
they would be about the nature of a relationship with Yushchenko.
So my sense is that between now and the election, Russia is going to behave
in a calmer rather than more assertive way, especially if they have an
intelligent reading of the poll.
[Gwertzman] Does Yushchenko have his own party?
[Karatnycky] He has a bloc that's called Our Ukraine and he wanted to bring
Tymoshenko into that bloc. And then, he wanted to widen it into a movement
that had the name of a political coalition that backed his candidacy called,
"Power of the People." That bloc was supposed to include the Tymoshenko
bloc and they were supposed to use that as a common brand name.
But since that's sort of broken up, I think you're going to have these two
competing blocs and it will really be a popularity test between Yushchenko
and Tymoshenko. While Tymoshenko is extremely popular, I think her absence
from parliamentary debate and her absence from government is a bit of a
disadvantage.
She'll be on the television and appearing all the time. The media is very
free and she has said that, but it's still a little bit of a disadvantage.
[Gwertzman] Does she have her own party?
[Karatnycky] She has a party called the "Bloc Yuliya Tymoshenko," Which
is pronounced, "BUTY," like beauty. It's not accidental. She has the entire
spring and fall collection of Louis Vuitton, so when she went to Paris she
had meetings with Louis Vuitton and I think she received a bounty for the
publicity-when she was in Paris she really charmed French society.
[Gwertzman] Does she have a family?
[Karatnycky] She has a daughter but is estranged from her husband. Her
husband was also in prison for a couple of years while she was still
actually in the government. That was a messy story.
[Gwertzman] You think in the end she and Yushchenko will have to get
together?
[Karatnycky] I think they're both likely to capture more than 25 percent and
one of them could move above 30 percent, and together that bloc would
roughly command 55 percent or so of the electoral preferences. I can't see
either of them making a pact with the Communists or the Social Democrats.
So they're really part of the populist socialists and it's really hard to
envision any majority that will not bring them together.
[Gwertzman] Is it possible she may end up as prime minister again?
[Karatnycky] Yes, it's very possible, but only if she gets more votes than
the Yushchenko bloc. He'll never hand her the prime ministership again.
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[Format editing by The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) Monitoring Service]
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19. HOW THE DEATH VALLEY SCREAMERS MADE IT MASSIVE IN UKRAINE
Mr. Carr and his forthcoming marriage to the daughter of Yulia Timoshenko
By Adrian Blomfeld in Kiev, Arts.telegraph, London, UK, Thu, Sep 15, 2005
KIEV - A loyal following among the heavy metal aficionados at the Warehouse
Nightclub in Headingley notwithstanding, the Death Valley Screamers have
never really made it big in Britain.
Our loss, perhaps - although even the most devoted fans in LS6 might have
been surprised to see a quarter of a million Ukrainians moshing to lead
singer Sean Carr's bone-jangling melodies in Kiev's main square last month.
This evening, the band's first album Just Crazy goes on sale in Ukraine and
many pundits are expecting it to hit the top the charts. It could even make
the top 10 in neighbouring Moldova. In the words of one newspaper
commentator, it is the biggest British invasion of Ukraine since the Crimean
war.
Mr Carr, a 36-year-old nightclub owner who learned his skills growing up in
the Spanish beach resort of Torremolinos, has become a phenomenon in
Ukraine. He cannot walk on the streets for fear of being mobbed by fans.
Ukraine's version of the paparazzi stalks his every move.
The interest may have something to do with young Ukrainians embracing
everything western after last year's Orange Revolution. But a more likely
explanation is probably his forthcoming marriage to the daughter of Yulia
Timoshenko - a multimillionaire, one of the world's most beautiful
politicians and, until she was sacked last week, the country's prime
minister.
It was 26-year-old Yevgenia who did the wooing that sparked off the
relationship. The attractive and demure socialite spotted Mr Carr in a bar
on Egypt's Red Sea Riviera and was captivated by his waist-length hair and
the giant tattoo on his torso depicting an alien crawling out of his belly.
She weasled his mobile telephone number off the barman and began to
deluge Mr Carr, by then back in England, with a flurry of text messages -
even though they had barely exchanged a word - before getting on a flight
to London.
"I sent her a message saying 'is that the beautiful lady that walked past me
in the Ritz Carlton'," he recalled, speaking to The Daily Telegraph in
between interviews with two of Ukraine's biggest television networks
ahead of today's album launch.
"I then asked her if she fancied coming up to a bikers' festival in Leeds,"
he said. "She replied, 'I'll be there in three hours'." It was not until
they had been together for several weeks that she revealed her family
background to him.
Apparently mesmerized after hearing a home-made CD of Mr Carr's music,
Miss Timoshenko insisted he resurrect the defunct Death Valley Screamers
and bring them to Ukraine.
Hesitant at first, Mr Carr got in touch with Mick Lake, guitarist and
backing vocalist who once played in his band, and who, after some
persuasion, agreed to leave Leeds and come to Ukraine. After recruiting
three locals to make up the rest of the band, they played their first
concert at a bar in the spring.
"We were absolutely petrified," said Mr Lake. "But we started playing and
the whole place just erupted. It was amazing. Even the secret police took
their hats off and were dancing."
If Mrs Timoshenko disapproves of her daughter's choice of future husband,
she has not shown it - giving her full backing to the band and expressing
delight when they were chosen to play at independence day celebrations last
month. "She was great," Mr Carr said. "She only asked one thing - that I
wouldn't take my top off on stage."
But some sections of the Ukrainian press were dubious, questioning whether
songs such as Killer and Bitch really had artistic merit.
They even poured scorn on the band's attempt to tap into local music with a
specially written Ukrainian version of Just Crazy entitled Just Crazy
Cossack.
Mr Carr says the criticism has mainly come from newspapers trying to
besmirch him in order to undermine his future mother-in-law - one reporter
even tried to find out if he ate hamsters.
And though he admits that his relationship has done much to publicise the
band, he also insists that his music has cross-generational appeal.
The Yorkshire rockers insist that they are not seeking fame and fortune, but
will not turn them down if they come their way. "If we make it big, great,"
Mr Lake said. "If we don't, that's great too. It's been a laugh." -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/09/15//nmetal15.xml
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