"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 185
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C.; Kyiv, Ukraine, FRIDAY, October 8, 2004
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. U.S.-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS AND THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS
Remarks by United States Ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst
Given At European University, Kiev, Ukraine, Thu, October 7, 2004
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.185: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
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1. U.S.-UKRAINIAN RELATIONS AND THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS
REMARKS: by United States Ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst
Given At European University, Kiev, Ukraine, Thu, October 7, 2004
The Action Ukraine Report, Washington, D.C., Fri, October 8, 2004
The following is the complete text of Ambassador Herbst's remarks:
The future of Ukraine is a large topic of great importance to the Ukrainian
people, obviously, but also to the region and to the Euro-Atlantic
community, which includes the United States. This topic has particular
meaning this year, the country's fourteenth year of independence and the
year of its fourth presidential election. We have seen dramatic statements
about the meaning of this election. Some observers suggest that this is the
most important vote since the referendum on independence. Still other
observers speak of the election in Manichean terms as a struggle between
good and evil.
Of course, hard fought political campaigns in democracies are often given
to hyperbole. Some even say that our own American election this year has
witnessed some overstatement. But as one Rada deputy, from the center
of the political spectrum, correctly noted at my dinner table recently, the
sun will rise on the morning of November 22, the day after the run-off vote
which all expect in the Ukrainian elections.
So what are we looking at in Ukraine? A titanic battle for the soul of the
country or just one more presidential election in the life of a young,
developing democracy? Or is it something else?
Let's start with some positives. Ukraine stands in the front ranks of the
Newly Independent States in terms of economic and political reform. You
all know the splendid growth rates the country has achieved over the past
four years. While remaining energy dependent, Ukraine's growth rate has
averaged 7.5% over this period and exceeded 12 % for the first four months
of this year. This is due to a talented people, ample natural resources and
excellent macroeconomic policy. I would note, however, that the excellent
fiscal policy has given way to some potentially inflationary election year
economics - something which is known not just in Ukraine, but also in other
democracies
Civil society in Ukraine is vibrant. Freedom of speech is embedded in the
law and there are media representing all points of view. There is a strong
opposition - which is not seen much within the NIS - whose leader just might
be elected president this fall. It seems clear that President Kuchma will
step down following this election. That means that this election will
feature the second peaceful presidential transfer of power in Ukraine -- an
important step in the establishment of a democratic tradition.
But of course, this is not the whole of the story. Indeed, some in Ukraine
would even take exception with the way that I formulated the good news.
One member of the opposition, for instance, complained to me that the
point of comparison for Ukraine should not be the NIS, but the countries
immediately to the west, former members of the Soviet bloc that are now
in NATO and the EU. Countries such as Poland and Hungary. In such
company, he claims, the Ukrainian record is not pretty at all.
There is something to this. Ukraine's vibrant civil society is perhaps not
quite as vibrant today as it was five or six years ago. The same may be
said about the media. While media represent all points of view, the
dominant media all pull in the direction of the governing parties and the
media that do not are subject to pressure and even closure. Given the
welter of often contradictory laws governing all aspects of life in Ukraine,
people going about their affairs may well be in violation of one of them.
This provides opportunities for those in power to go after their opponents.
I met with one articulate journalist from a pro-government newspaper who
argued that such things are not important. Most Ukrainians, he said, don't
care about things like freedom of speech or completely free elections. They
want good, secure jobs, which the growing economy is providing. This is an
interesting argument. I remember such arguments in favor of the Soviet way
of life, which of course provided neither freedom nor prosperity, but this
argument is misplaced in Ukraine just as it was misplaced in Soviet times.
Even for those in Ukraine who only care about the economy, good clean
government, which requires a truly open society and complete media
freedom, is essential.
While macroeconomic policies have been very good, the microeconomic
policies are another story. The laws concerning private property and the
formation of businesses are a jumble of contradictions allowing corruption
to flourish. The impact this has on the welfare of ordinary Ukrainians is
easy to see. Earlier this year, the government oversaw the privatization
of Kryvorizhstal, a major steel plant in eastern Ukraine. It wrote the
terms of the bidding in such a way as to rule out foreign competition. The
winners of the bid were two businessmen associated with the government.
Their winning bid was for USD 800 million. Two foreign firms put in a bid
of USD 1.65 billion. In addition, they were willing to invest USD 1.2
billion in the firm. They wanted to modernize the firm. The fact that this
bid did not win, that it went to two privileged businessmen meant that the
Ukrainian Government received USD 700 million less than it would have.
It also means that the steel works did not receive USD 1.2 billion in
investment. Imagine how many jobs for Ukrainian steelworkers will not be
created and how many jobs in related industries will not be created because
the foreign bid was not accepted.
Of course, you did not read about these facts in your major media, because
your major media didn't want to cover those stories. And the media that do
cover those stories is subject to harassment.
Which brings us to the elections. Let me first repeat the obvious: the only
stake the United States has in these elections is in the electoral process.
Not in any candidate. We would like to see a free and fair election in
Ukraine. In other words, our only stake is that the Ukrainian people
choose their next leader. That choice should not be influenced by
government officials who limit access to information, who hinder
opposition political activities or, worse, play games with the actual
electoral results.
How is the campaign going? The answer is it is not going very well.
While most parties in Ukraine pay lip service to the idea of a free and fair
competition, the reality is sadly different. A variety of obstacles have
been placed in the way of the opposition parties. These have begun to
raise doubts about whether the elections can be considered truly free and
fair. As you are well acquainted with the situation here, I will only list a
few of them quickly:
- there is disproportionate coverage in favor of the government candidate
in the main broadcast and print media;
- pressure on independent and opposition media, including removing TV
Channel Five from the airwaves in many places, continues;
- administrative obstacles to political events of the opposition are also
evident although there may have been some improvement in this area;
- regional officials and business leaders force citizens and workers to sign
petitions and attend rallies in favor of the pro-government candidates;
-there is use of the Procurator General and the tax authorities to go after
opposition-affiliated entrepreneurs.
I should note that senior government officials have publicly and privately
in conversations with American officials condemned any such abuses. This
is good. Some observers, not all members of the government, have blamed
many of these excesses on overzealous bureaucrats. All the same, we
believe that the interests of Ukrainian voters would be served if such
abuses
stopped, and therefore the government should take effective measures toward
that end.
The good news is that despite these abuses, we are witnessing a real horse
race. President Kuchma was right in telling a number of senior American
officials visiting here that it is not possible to predict the winner of
your election. Most polls currently show Victor Yushchenko with a lead of
anywhere from four to nine points over Prime Minister Yanukovych in both
the initial and run-off rounds. And observers on both sides of the
political fence talk about a backlash effect in the elections to the crude
use of administrative resources by people in authority. But it is too early
to make any predictions. Polls have also shown that the undecided vote
has been growing sharply.
While these statistics are interesting, let me stress once again that the
United States has no preference among the candidates. American officials
who visit Ukraine have been scrupulous in asking to see both Victor
Yanukovych and Victor Yushchenko. We have a great deal of contact
with both men and know that we can work with either one. Our only
interest is in the people of Ukraine choosing their own President without
hindrance from powerful forces and officials.
The closeness of the race means that election day (or days) will be
exciting. We hope those days will also be a stunning achievement in the
development of Ukrainian democracy. With that in mind, our policy is
supporting two critical measures. The first is the provision of election
observers. The OSCE through its election arm ODIHR is providing roughly
600 observers. That's a very small number for the largest country in Europe
with 33,000 polling stations. The United States will also be financing
another 1000 observers - most of those observers will come from Europe,
from your neighbors. We believe that additional international observers
would also be a plus. It is very important that Ukrainian NGOs be permitted
to participate as observers. The second measure to ensure free and fair
elections is exit polls. This should provide an accurate count readily
available to the public of the voting. Exit polls were very accurate and
effective in your presidential election in 1999 and your Rada elections in
2002. The purpose of these measures is to make sure that Ukrainian
election - like Caesar's wife - is above suspicion.
I might note here that these two measures are so important that other
parties see value in their use. The CIS has already sent observers who
will see what a truly contested election looks like. Similarly some from
these same countries are also talking about doing their own exit polling -
a very interesting phenomenon.
We want free and fair elections for several reasons:
- We believe that democracy is good for Ukraine and Ukrainians, if not
for some of the vested interests controlling the major media in the country.
- We believe that a clear democratic election in Ukraine - no matter who
wins - could be a persuasive example for Ukraine's neighbors among the
Newly Independent States.
- Finally, Ukraine has declared its interest in Euro-Atlantic integration.
We support this choice because we believe that it will contribute to the
security and prosperity of Europe and beyond. Such integration means
many things, including a club of democracies. So free and fair elections
will speed up Ukraine's integration.
It is Ukraine's honor that we cannot say at this stage who will be the next
president of the country. It will be an even greater honor if the
administrative abuses cease, if the counting of votes on election day is
done in an honest and transparent manner and if, therefore, the people
of Ukraine really do choose their next President. -30-
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