"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 201
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C.; Kyiv, Ukraine, THURSDAY, October 28, 2004
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. INFLATION IN UKRAINE TO GO INTO TWO DIGITS
IN 2004, SAYS ICPS
Inflation Up To 10%, Up From Earlier Forecast of 6.5%
INTERFAX, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, October 27, 2004
2. RETURN OF COLD WAR RHETORIC IN FINAL DAYS
OF UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Campaigning for Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine's pro-government presidential
candidate, has taken an anti-Western turn in the final days before Sunday's
poll.
By Tom Warner in Kiev, Financial Times
London, UK, Tuesday October 26, 2004
3. UKRAINE OPPOSITION UPSET BY PUTIN'S TIMELY VISIT
By Tom Warner in Cherkasy, Ukraine
Financial Times, London, UK, Thursday, October 28 2004
4. 40,000 RALLY IN CHERKASY TO SUPPORT YUSHCHENKO
Ukrainian News Agency, Kiev, Ukraine, October 27, 2004
5. "PUTIN'S CAMPAIGN HAS KIEV ON EDGE"
By Francesca Mereu, Staff Writer, The Moscow Times
Moscow, Russia, Thursday, October 28, 2004. Page 1.
6. RUSSIA'S SUPPORT FOR YANUKOVYCH MAY BACKFIRE
By Simon Saradzhyan for ISN Security Watch
ISN Security Watch, Zurich, Switzerland, Thu, October 28, 2004
7. "UKRAINE, VOTING SUNDAY, AT A CRITICAL
CROSSROADS FOR DEMOCRACY"
By Lawrence J. Denardis and Peter G. Torkildsen
New Haven Register, New Haven, CT, Wed, 27 October 2004
8. "UKRAINE'S BIG DECISION"
EDITORIAL: Christian Science Monitor
Boston, Massachusetts, Wednesday, October 27, 2004
9. "CRUCIAL VOTE LOOMS IN UKRAINE"
Outcome May Determine Whether Nation Allies With EU or Russia
By Marc Champion, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal, New York, NY, Tue, 26 October 2004
10. EUROPEAN UNION DOUBTS UKRAINE'S FULFILLMENT
OF ITS DEMOCRATIC OBLIGATIONS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, October 27, 2004
11. TENSION BUILDS AS UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION ENTERS HOMESTRETCH
Desperation evident within Yanukovych campaign
By Taras Kuzio, Eurasia Daily Monitor
Volume 1, Issue 114, The Jamestown Foundation
Washington, D.C., Wednesday, October 27, 2004
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 201: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
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1. INFLATION IN UKRAINE TO GO INTO TWO DIGITS
IN 2004, SAYS ICPS
Inflation Up To 10%, Up From Earlier Forecast of 6.5%
INTERFAX, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, October 27, 2004
KYIV - The International Center for Policy Studies has corrected its
forecast for the growth of the consumer price index in Ukraine in
2004 to 10% (earlier - 6.5%), and in 2005 to 9% (7-8%), the ICPS
reported in a press release with reference to its economist Oleksiy
Bakun.
According to him, the inflation rise was caused by increased prices
for meat and fuel.
"Additional pressure on prices will also be caused by the
presidential election. The combination of these factors, with
citizens' high inflation expectations, gives grounds to revise the
forecast," he is quoted.
According to ICPS experts, even though a reduction in grain prices
will partly help to cut the price of meat, meat prices are still
growing due to decreased supply in the market after last year's fall
in cattle numbers.
The ICPS forecasts continued high meat prices until 2Q, 2005.
The center also believes the election factor poses an additional
inflation threat due to extreme increases in citizens' incomes and
state consumption in the second half of 2004.
"This will favor a growth of demand, which will result in an
increase of prices, should inflation uncertainty get worse," the
ICPS reported.
According to experts, in early 2005 an increase of communal and
transport tariffs may speed up inflation.
As reported earlier, September inflation in Ukraine was 1.3%, and
this year so far 5.6%. In August, Ukraine saw deflation of 0.1%, in
July 0%. From April to June inflation was 0.7% monthly, in February
and March it was 0.4% per month, and in January it was 1.4%.
Local analysts forecast monthly growth of inflation in November-
December by at least 1%.
According to the Economics Ministry forecast, October inflation in
Ukraine will fall to 1% against 1.3% in September.
Overall, the government is expecting inflation in Ukraine to be 7-
7.5% this year. At the same time, the NBU forecasts inflation at 9%
over the year.
The election for President of Ukraine is set for October 31, 2004.
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FOOTNOTE: Double Digit Inflation: What the government giveth, the
government taketh away quickly. Inflation is like a thief in the night.
Great way for government to steal from those who can least afford it.
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
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2. RETURN OF COLD WAR RHETORIC IN FINAL DAYS
OF UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Campaigning for Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine's pro-government presidential
candidate, has taken an anti-Western turn in the final days before Sunday's
poll.
By Tom Warner in Kiev
Financial Times, London, UK, Tuesday October 26, 2004
KIEV - In public statements, Mr. Yanukovich has expressed a
desire to strengthen ties and liberalize trade with the US and the European
Union, while putting off discussions about the possibility of membership of
the EU and NATO. He has distanced himself from people campaigning
on his behalf who have expressed anti-Western or anti-American views.
However, propaganda handed out by Mr. Yanukovich's official
campaign this week takes a tone reminiscent of cold war rhetoric.
Flyers distributed at Mr. Yanukovich's campaign tents in central
Kiev say he is against "special operations by Western special services on
our territory". Other slogans warn against the "exploitation of our state
and the liquidation of our economy under the guise of preparing for EU
entry" and "being pulled into military adventures as a result of NATO
entry".
A spokesman for Mr. Yanukovich said the campaign was using
"many flyers". And he could not discuss any particular one.
The propaganda follows public criticism by the US and EU of the
Ukrainian authorities' conduct in the campaign, which has seen arrests of
supporters of the main opposition candidate, the pro-Western liberal Viktor
Yushchenko. Last week a group of Mr. Yanukovich's supporters staged a
protest outside the US embassy, calling on Washington not to interfere with
the campaign.
Stepan Havrish, one of Mr. Yanukovich's campaign chiefs,
recently accused Mr. Yushchenko's supporters of trying to turn Ukraine into
"Belarus Two".
Meanwhile, Russia's president, Vladamir Putin, has met Mr.
Yanukovich frequently during the campaign. Mr. Yushchenko's supporters are
worried Mr. Putin could use a planned live appearance tonight on Ukraine's
top three national television channels to endorse Mr. Yanukovich.
The outgoing Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma yesterday made a
last-minute cancellation of a trip to Poland, and officials cited mounting
tension in the ex-Soviet state in the final days of campaigning before the
election of his successor, Reuters reports from Kiev.
Mr. Kuchma decided to stay at home after scuffles with police
broke out at the end of a weekend rally in Kiev attended by 100,000
supporters of Mr. Yushchenko.
"I want to appeal to all political forces - calm down and stop
attempts to destabilize the situation in the country," Mr. Kuchma said.
Mr. Yushchenko and Mr. Yanukovich are neck-and-neck in opinion
polls. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
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3. UKRAINE OPPOSITION UPSET BY PUTIN'S TIMELY VISIT
By Tom Warner in Cherkasy, Ukraine
Financial Times, London, UK, Thursday, October 28 2004
CHERKASY - A visit by Russian president Vladimir Putin ahead of Ukrainian
presidential elections this Sunday has outraged the opposition, which
regards the gesture as an intervention in the electoral race.
Viktor Yushchenko, the leading opposition candidate, said his rival,
Ukraine's prime minister Viktor Yanukovich, was "making the maximum use
of Putin's visit". This was to continue today with the Russian president's
participation in a military parade in Kiev marking the 60th anniversary of
Ukraine's liberation from Nazi occupation.
Mr Yushchenko said yesterday that the timing of Mr Putin's visit three days
before the election was "not the best". The decision to hold the parade,
made by the outgoing president Leonid Kuchma, represented "the authorities'
last attempt to use Russia's influence in the elections".
Mr Putin on Tuesday night praised Mr Yanukovich's economic success in a
live appearance on Ukraine's top three TV channels.
"The Yanukovich government managed to achieve not only a high pace of
growth . . . It managed at the same time to concentrate financial resources
on solving the main social tasks such as increasing pensions," Mr Putin
said.
Mr Putin refrained from explicitly endorsing Mr Yanukovich's bid and
contradicted a suggestion by one of the presenters that economic ties
between Ukraine and Russia had particularly improved during Mr Yanukovich's
term.
Some of Mr Yushchenko's supporters have accused Mr Kuchma and Mr
Yanukovich of planning the parade in order to intimidate voters. No such
event was held before the last two presidential elections, which fell on the
50th and 55th anniversaries of liberation.
Polls published before a publication ban two weeks ahead of the vote showed
the two candidates neck-and-neck, each with about 35 per cent support. If no
candidate wins 50 per cent of the vote on Sunday, the two leaders will face
each other in a November 21st run-off.
* The European Union yesterday warned Ukraine that its presidential poll
could fall far short of international standards and urged the authorities to
ensure free and fair balloting, AP reports from Kiev.
In a joint declaration, EU ambassadors in Ukraine warned the authorities
that campaigning for Sunday's vote "has given cause for serious concerns
about Ukraine's compliance with all relevant international standards".
Campaigning has been a tense affair, with numerous complaints from the
opposition about the government's interference and occasional violence.
"The disruption of opposition rallies, problems with independent media
government's commitment to its democratic obligations to the EU," the
declaration said. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
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4. 40,000 RALLY IN CHERKASY TO SUPPORT VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO
Ukrainian News Agency, Kiev, Ukraine, October 27, 2004
KIEV - Some 40,000 supporters of Our Ukraine Coalition leader Viktor
Yuschenko have joined a meeting in Cherkasy to support his candidacy at
2004 presidential elections. They gathered on the Lenin Square in front of
the building of the Cherkasy Regional Administration at 6 pm.
The demonstrators held orange flags and signs saying "Cherkasy region elects
Yuschenko!" "We favor honest elections" "Yuschenko - yes! He is my
president!" "Cherkasy intelligentsia for Yuschenko" and chanted "Yuschenko!"
Yuschenko made a speech and called on the gathering to vote for him on
October 31.
"We won't learn Murka [the song of criminals]! We won't move in lockstep!
Not a single vote to bandits!" he said.
The candidate urged his supporters to prevent vote rigging by all means and
to come to polling stations after 8 pm on October 31 and to see to vote
counting. The rally ended in an hour and was followed by a concert.
Organizers of the meeting said there was a pressure on students of Cherkasy
on the part of the authorities, who attempted to keep them away form the
rally by shifting> As Ukrainian News previously earlier reported, the
Cherkasy regional campaign headquarters of Yuschenko had earlier called on
Cherkasy regional police, the regional division of the Security Service of
Ukraine and the prosecutor's office to increase security measures during the
pro-Yuschenko rally in downtown Cherkasy, fearing provocations and mass
disorder. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
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5. PUTIN'S CAMPAIGN HAS KIEV ON EDGE
By Francesca Mereu, Staff Writer, The Moscow Times
Moscow, Russia, Thursday, October 28, 2004. Page 1.
KIEV ------ President Vladimir Putin's high-profile support
for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych during his visit to Ukraine
this week, ahead of Sunday's close-run presidential election, is
raising fears in Kiev that Russia plans to increase its influence
over the country.
Putin's support for Yanukovych, whom President Leonid Kuchma is
backing to succeed him, is a vital part of Putin's "strong state"
project, since part of his authority in Russia relies on the
perceived restoration of the country as a superpower, Ukrainian
political analysts said.
To achieve its aim, Moscow could be using a window of opportunity
while the West is temporarily distracted -- the United States by its
own presidential election, and Europe by a dispute over the makeup
of the European Commission -- to influence the outcome of Sunday's
vote, experts said.
With just days to go before the election, polls continue to put
Yanukovych and the main opposition candidate, liberal Viktor
Yushchenko, neck-and-neck in the race for the support of the
country's 36 million registered voters. Most analysts predict the
election will go to a runoff between the two on Nov. 14.
Since 1994, when Kuchma came to power, the Kremlin has endorsed
its favored candidate in Ukrainian elections. This time, however, the
Kremlin has gone a step further, backing a plan to hand over power
to Kuchma's designated successor and stop Yushchenko, a former
prime minister and Central Bank chairman, from winning.
"If Putin succeeds in getting his candidate elected, he would feel
pretty safe to continue trying to restore Russia's great-power
status," said Hryhoriy Nemyria, director of the Kiev-based Center
for European and International Studies. "A significant part of
Putin's legitimacy lies in his ability to control developments in
Russia's 'near abroad.'
"But if he fails -- and Ukraine is a key test in this -- Putin's
legitimacy in the eyes of Russians would be undermined, not
critically, but significantly," he said.
Vladimir Polokhalo, an independent political analyst at the World
Economy and International Relations Institute of the Ukrainian
Academy of Sciences, agreed. He said that Russia "is building an
authoritarian regime" and needs Ukraine as part of the plan.
"If Putin loses Ukraine, his voters would blame him for not having
been tough enough. Putin cannot afford to lose Ukraine and cannot
afford to let the country join the ranks of Western democracies," he
said. "He needs an isolated country. A Ukraine dominated by Russia
would have to ask the Kremlin's permission for any decision it wants
to make, such as joining NATO or the EU."
This is why Putin appeared on Ukrainian state television Tuesday,
and why the Kremlin is investing so much political capital in
Sunday's election, the experts said.
Putin is officially in Ukraine to attend celebrations for the 60th
anniversary of Kiev's liberation from Nazi Germany on Nov. 6, 1944.
Moving the festivities forward to Thursday, three days before the
election, was a clear PR stunt by the authorities, the experts said.
Russian political consultants have also flocked to Kiev to help
Yanukovych's campaign, with Kremlin insider and spin doctor Gleb
Pavlovsky launching a "Russian Club" in the city. Yanukovych's
critics have described the club, ostensibly a nongovernmental forum
to discuss bilateral relations, as a channel through which Moscow
can influence the campaign.
The Russian Club has been active in organizing news conferences for
prominent Russian political figures coming to Kiev, and its
activities have received widespread coverage in the state-controlled
media, which cover 98 percent of the country.
While both Yanukovych and Yushchenko talk about pursuing Ukraine's
relations with Russia, only Yanukovych has received the Kremlin's
support, said Alexander Dergachyov, editor of the online newspaper
Transparent Policy, a project financed by the Soros Foundation. This
is because Yanukovych stands for maintaining the status quo, while
Yushchenko is for change, he said.
"Russia wants to have someone who will continue Kuchma's policies,
and Yanukovych is the right person. They are afraid of any changes,"
he said.
Nemyria said another factor playing to Yanukovych's advantage with
the Kremlin is predictability. "His point of view is more in line
with Russia's vision in this part of the world," he said.
Yushchenko, who says openly he is pro-Western, is not so predictable
for Russia, Nemyria said.
Under Yushchenko, Ukraine could have the chance to join NATO as soon
as 2008 or 2010, and this is another concern for Russia, which is
already concerned about Baltic nations joining NATO, Nemyria said.
The Kremlin sees Yanukovych, on the other hand, as someone who would
suit Russia just fine. Yanukovych has said he will introduce dual
Ukrainian-Russian citizenship and give the Russian language, spoken
by about 20 percent of the country's 48 million citizens, the status
of an official language. He is also calling for a policy of
nonalignment, which would reverse Ukraine's current course toward
eventual NATO membership.
But Russia's backing for Yanukovych, while suiting the Kremlin
politically, could paradoxically act against Russian business
interests in the country, said Anders Áslund, director of the
Russian and Eurasian program at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace.
"After having defeated the oligarchs in Russia, Putin is supporting
the oligarchs in Ukraine. This does not make much sense," Áslund
said.
Yanukovych, a former regional governor, hails from the Donetsk clan,
one of several geographically defined oligarchic groups that compete
for domination in Ukrainian business and politics. The clan, headed
by Rynat Akhmetov, is reputed to be the biggest private enterprise
group throughout the CIS, and employs about 500,000 people.
Yanukovych is thought to rank second in the Donetsk clan, after
Akhmetov.
Since his appointment as prime minister in October 2002, Yanukovych
has generally blocked Russian businesses from making acquisitions in
Ukraine, the experts said. In fact, it was Yushchenko, who was prime
minister from December 1999 to April 2001, who allowed Russian
companies to buy up large enterprises in Ukraine.
"If Putin wanted to lobby for Russian business groups, he should
have backed Yushchenko," Áslund said. "Four big Russian oil
companies bought refineries in Ukraine while Yushchenko was prime
minister. Yushchenko opened doors for them."
By contrast, on Yanukovych's watch, last June Akhmetov and Viktor
Pinchuk, Kuchma's son-in-law and the head of the Dnipropetrovsk
clan, bought a state-owned steelworks in an auction where foreign
bidders, including Russians, offering two or three times as much
were excluded.
"During Yushchenko's tenure, Russian businesses were among the
players," Nemyria said. "There should have been a level playing
field for everyone to compete openly. If Yanukovych wins, there are
expectations that Russian businesses could get more privileges, but
this is not necessary true."
Áslund said that Putin does not completely understand the
situation. "It really seems that Putin is lost," Áslund said.
Putin is making his play for influence in Ukraine at the right time,
Polokhalo said, as both Europe and the United States are busy with
their own internal problems and are not paying enough attention to
what is going on in Ukraine.
"Western politicians keep on repeating that the elections should be
fair. That's all," he said. "Putin is using this vacuum that has
been created because the European Union is focused on its
enlargement and the United States on its own presidential election.
Putin is using this indifference to get political leverage in our
country." -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201 ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
Additional names for the distribution list are always welcome
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6. RUSSIA'S SUPPORT FOR YANUKOVYCH MAY BACKFIRE
The unprecedented involvement of Russian political leaders and spin
doctors in the Ukrainian presidential race on the side of Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych, incumbent Leonid Kuchma's designated
heir, has become so excessive that it may alienate rather than
persuade undecided voters, in a repeat of recent developments in
Abkhazia.
By Simon Saradzhyan for ISN Security Watch
ISN Security Watch, Zurich, Switzerland, Thu, October 28, 2004
Both of the candidates backed by Russia for presidential elections
in Abkhazia and Ukraine are from the ruling party. Both have served
as prime ministers and campaigned on a platform of strengthening
relations with Russia, using images from their meetings with
President Vladimir Putin in their campaign and recruiting the
services of Russian public relations specialists. The similarities
between Abkhazia's Raul Khajimba and Ukraine's Viktor Yanukovych may
end here, but the Ukrainian candidate and the Russian president
should be scratching their heads over the failure of the Russian-
backed Abkhaz candidate to win the presidential poll in Georgia's
separatist republic on 3 October, despite intensive, if not
excessive, support from the Kremlin. Khajimba's campaign team, which
included experts from Russia, seemed to have done everything
possible to win the 3 October election by trying to capitalize on
the pro-Russian sentiments of Abkhaz voters, many of whom hold
Russian passports and still remember Moscow's tacit support during
their war of secession from Georgia.
OVERKILL
The Russian spin doctors had clearly hoped that Putin's televised
reception of Khajimba at his presidential residence outside the
Black Sea port of Sochi in August would resonate among the Abkhaz
electorate and sway the vote against opposition candidate Sergei
Bagapsh. Russian television stations also granted then-prime
minister Khajimba's campaign generous coverage. But the Russian
effort did not end in Sochi. Soon after the August meeting, posters
of Putin and Khajimba posing with Russian celebrities and
politicians began appearing in Sokhumi. Among them were such well-
know figures as State Duma deputy and crooner Iosif Kobzon and pop
singer Oleg Gazmanov. A concert staged by Gazmanov turned out to be
an embarrassing flop, with the host angering the crowd by addressing
them as "Adjarians", a reference another separatist republic in
Georgia. When Gazmanov called on the "Adjarians" to "Vote for
Khajimba", no one was particularly impressed. While this fumbled
event could easily have been the lowest point in the excessive
campaign, the real overkill was arguably achieved when the leader of
the Russian Liberal-Democratic Party, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, told a
rally in Abkhazia that Russia might withdraw its support if the
voters failed to choose Khajimba as their next president. Such a
threat could not help but wound Abkhaz national pride, especially as
it came during celebrations of their "victory" over Georgia in the
1992-1994 war. The Abkhaz have also become increasingly frustrated
by the failures of incumbent President Vladislav Ardzinba and his
suspiciously wealthy retinue, including Khajimba, while the majority
of the population slides ever deeper into poverty.
PRESSURE BACKFIRES
In addition to frustrations with the incumbent and his designated
heir, Bagapsh's campaign was boosted after the leading opposition
candidate, Alexander Ankvab, was struck from the race on the rather
dubious pretext of his poor knowledge of the Abkhaz language. Forced
to withdraw his candidacy, he offered to support Bagapsh. In
addition, the highly influential "Amtsakhara" veterans' organization
has thrown its weight behind Bagapsh. As a result, Khajimba lost the
first freely contested presidential race in Abkhazia to Bagapsh and
was fired by Ardzinba from the post of prime minister. Eleven
members of Abkhazia's Central Election Commission (CEC) announced
that Bagapsh had won with 50.08 per cent of the vote - a simple
majority that was sufficient to avoid a runoff. Moreover, the
commission's chairman declared Bagapsh the winner. But the decision
was contested in the Supreme Court by Khajimba, who alleged voting
fraud, with the full backing of Ardzinba. The court ruled on Tuesday
to establish a commission to organize a recount of all ballots cast
on 3 October. It remains unclear why Russia wanted to take sides in
this tiny republic, where all candidates were pro-Russian and
reportedly held Russian passports, and whose economy and security
depend on Russia. "This was an overall failure of Russian PR
technologists and technologies, which were primitive and dumb," said
Alexei Malashenko, a senior researcher with the Carnegie Moscow
Center. "The pressure backfired. It is also a warning for those who
are applying the same primitive methods in Ukraine, " Malashenko
said, noting that political PR techniques that work in Russia do not
necessarily work equally well in other former Soviet republics.
THE ABKAZIA-UKRAINE PARALLEL
Indeed, there is a striking similarity between the activities of
Russian spin doctors in Abkhazia and Ukraine, and the obvious
failure in Sokhumi bodes ill for Russia's efforts in Kiev - a fact
that should serve as a wake-up call for Russia to fine-tune its
heavy-handed campaigning for allies in neighboring countries, and to
scale down its involvement in the domestic affairs of other
countries. Not only did Putin meet with Yanukovych several times
while Russian politicians took turns to support Kuchma's heir-
apparent, but Russian television channels are also bombarding
Ukrainian viewers - who receive these channels in their standard TV
package - with pro-Yanukovych coverage, while criticizing his rival,
former prime minister Viktor Yushchenko, the main opposition
candidate. Moreover, with less than a week to go before the poll,
Putin arrived for a thee-day visit to Ukraine on Tuesday in an ill-
camouflaged effort to support Yanukovych's bid. Immediately upon
arrival, he went live on three major Ukrainian television channels
to promise a bright common future for Russia and Ukraine - a future
that he linked to the continuity of projects pursued by the two
countries' current leaderships. While Putin was clearly on a pro-
Yanukovych campaign mission, the official reason for his visit was
the 60th anniversary of Kiev's liberation from Nazi Germany. In an
apparent effort to link the election campaign to the anniversary,
the Ukrainian authorities even moved the celebrations forward from
the historical date of 6 November to Thursday, three days before the
election. And the campaign for Yanukovych is not limited to Ukraine
only - pro-Yanukovich billboards can be seen along major roads in
Moscow, and a national television channel recently covered a small
group of pro-Yanukovych Ukrainians in Moscow as groundsmen and
plumbers.
A TIGHT RACE
Yanukovich hails from the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk and has
more supporters among the Russian-speaking communities in this part
of Ukraine. In an effort to secure more support among Russian-
speaking communities in both Ukraine and Russia, Yanukovych has
already promised to make Russian the second official language and
suggested shelving the country's plans to join the EU and NATO.
Senior policy-makers in Russia have heartily welcomed these ideas,
and Yanukovych was warmly accepted into the informal club of leaders
of the Russia-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
during the body's summit last month. Also, in a clear effort to show
support for Kuchma's designated heir, Putin earlier this year
cancelled the collection of value-added tax (VAT) on gas exports to
Ukraine. Unlike Yanukovych, Yushchenko has more supporters in
western Ukraine - where nationalists dominate the political scene -
and among liberal voters elsewhere. His Our Ukraine bloc and its
allies control some 40 per cent of the seats in Ukraine's
Verkhovnaya Rada parliament. Yushchenko has not made overtures to
Russia, though he has promised to qualitatively improve relations
with all of his country's neighbors by pursuing a foreign policy
based on Ukraine's national interests, rather than on alliances.
Opinion polls show Yushchenko and Yanukovych ahead of all other
candidates, with some pollsters giving the lead to the former and
others to the latter, but none managing to garner over 50 per cent
for a first-round win on 31 October.
LIKELY NOVEMBER RUNOFF
If neither candidate secures more than 50 per cent of the vote, a
runoff election would take place in the second half of November.
Both candidates will strive to win the support of Communist and
Socialist voters, who constitute a formidable part of the electorate
in this in this nation of 48 million, but whose leaders are unlikely
to make it past the first round. Both Yushchenko and Yanukovych have
tried to court these voters, whose representatives may become the
king-makers in the second-round, but the jury is still out on which
camp will win their support. In the past, the ruling party has been
more successful in striking deals with Communist and Socialist
leaders than the liberal opposition. Geographically, the battle in
the second round would be fought in the central and southern parts
of Ukraine, where excessive support by Russia for the power of
party's candidate could backfire, as it did in Abkhazia. Should the
second round also prove a tight race, with only a few percentage
points separating the contenders, a repetition of Abkhaz scenario
should not be ruled out, with the losing candidate contesting the
decision in court. However, there is also the possibility that a
close outcome in runoff elections could lead to violent clashes
between supporters of rival candidates in Ukraine. This was avoided
in Abkhazia, where the current internal political divisions do not
tend towards violence, as the population still has a siege
mentality, realizing that internal strife could be an inroad for
the "enemy" Georgian government, which seeks to restore its
territorial integrity by reining in its separatist regions. However,
in Ukraine, there is no common outside "enemy" that would prevent
dissenting factions of Ukrainian voters from taking their
frustrations to the streets, as they have done before, with pro-
Kuchma and opposition forces clashing in Kiev.
NEITHER CANDIDATE PRO-RUSSIAN
Paradoxically, of the two candidates, Yushchenko appears to have
done more to advance Russia's interests in Ukraine, at least in
economic terms, though his rhetoric has never been as pro-Russian as
that of Yanukovich. It was during Yushchenko's tenure as prime
minister that the theft of Russian gas by Ukrainian corporate
consumers was ended and the Ukrainian market was opened up to
Russian oil giants such as LUKoil and TNK. In comparison, Russia's
Severstal steel giant was reportedly shut out of a tender for
Ukraine's Kirovorozhstal steelmaker during the rule of Yanukovych,
who succeeded Yushchenko as prime minister. Nevertheless, the
Kremlin has staked all on Yanukovich despite the fact that his calls
for closer Ukrainian-Russian cooperation amount to little more than
rhetoric. Kuchma had also paid lip service to Ukrainian-Russian
friendship when he ran for re-election on a pro-Russian platform,
but subsequently toned down his pro-Russian statements during his
second term, before raising the rhetoric again as he saw the need to
win Russia's support for his designated heir. The Kremlin may have
opted for Yanukovych calculating that, if he won the race, but the
opposition contested it as a rigged victory and if his victory was
not recognized by Western leaders, it could drive him into Russian's
arms in the short term. However, in the long term, Western leaders
may soften their stance, given Ukraine's geostrategic importance,
and Yanukovych would still have to balance relations with the EU,
the US, and Russia if he wanted an independent Ukraine. Ukraine will
remain overly dependent on trade with both the EU and Russia, while
continuing military cooperation with both NATO and the US on one
hand and Russia on the other will prove tricky. The Kremlin's
failure to get the candidate of its choice elected in the dependent
and tiny Abkhazia is astonishing. Should Russia fail with
Yanukovych, it would cast doubt on Russia's ability to influence
affairs in what it considers to be its own backyard, where both the
EU and the US are playing an increasingly active role. A victory for
opposition candidate Yushchenko could also inspire opposition forces
in other CIS countries. -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Simon Saradzhyan is a veteran security and defense reporter based in
Moscow, Russia. He holds a degree in public administration from
Harvard University, where he studied international security and
wrote a working paper on nuclear terrorism. He is a co-founder of
the Center for Eurasian Security Studies and news editor for The
Moscow Times English-language daily.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?ID=10034
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
========================================================
7. "UKRAINE, VOTING SUNDAY, AT A CRITICAL
CROSSROADS FOR DEMOCRACY"
By Lawrence J. Denardis and Peter G. Torkildsen
New Haven Register, New Haven, CT, Wed, 27 October 2004
The most important election in Europe this year will be held in Ukraine on
Sunday, just two days before our election. When that nation of 48 million
chooses its next president, it will be of enormous importance to the world
as Ukraine is a geopolitical pivot between Europe, Russia and Central Asia.
Although there are two dozen candidates, the campaign has become a contest
between two * Prime Minister Viktor F. Yanukovich, backed by outgoing
President Leonid Kuchma, and Viktor A. Yushchenko, running as the leader of
the "Our Ukraine" movement, a coalition of opposition groups and parties.
Some analysts believe Yanukovich, if elected, is likely to become a
"Ukrainian Putin." Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, recently took actions
to give himself a dictator's grip. Yanukovich enjoys the strong support of
the newly rich oligarchs who benefited from the helter-skelter and often
unscrupulous privatization efforts of the 1990s, and the clans of industrial
eastern Ukraine.
Yushchenko is running on a platform of political and economic reform and
eventual integration with the Euro-Atlantic community. His strongest support
is in western Ukraine.
Beyond the contrasting visions of the leading candidates, a major concern to
voters is whether the election will be free and fair. As a consequence,
official observers sponsored by international organizations are pouring into
Ukraine to assess the pre-election environment, to monitor Election Day
proceedings, and to follow the vote tabulation. By Sunday, there will be
thousands of international observers in Ukraine.
Along with several former members of Congress and former European
parliamentarians, we recently visited Ukraine. We met with numerous party
and candidate representatives, and found many disturbing obstacles to a free
and fair election. These included state control and manipulation of most of
the media, serious restrictions on free speech and assembly, and
intimidation of potential voters, all with the intent of perpetuating and
strengthening the grip of the clans and oligarchs against rising democratic
opposition.
However, both candidates know the political importance of appealing to both
East and West. Throughout its history, Ukraine has been a border between
Europe and Russia. In fact, its name means borderland.
Will Ukraine's future foreign policy ultimately tilt East or West? Will it
take the risks associated with democratic reform and the establishment of a
market economy or remain in the hands of the clans and oligarchs who
manipulate government for their economic interests? These are central
questions in the election and the stakes are high.
Ukraine's greatest economic needs are capital infusion, an independent
source of energy so that it will not have to rely on Russian oil, and
western markets for export. Major political and economic reform is a
necessary first step.
The many observer groups watching the political environment in Ukraine will
be making their reports to several international organizations, including
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, whose major focus
is on countries that may be invited to join NATO and the European Union.
Recently, Ukraine's neighbors Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania were
admitted to the EU after establishing new standards of law, business and
politics.
Current polling shows strong support for Yushchenko and reform, but the same
polls indicate two-thirds of Ukrainians feel the election will be stolen.
They are mindful of Joseph Stalin's adage that the one who counts the vote
is more important than the one who casts the vote. That's why the current
campaign and election, and the likely runoff contest Nov. 21, may become the
most carefully monitored election in history.
Breaking with the historical tradition of all-powerful Soviet dictator or
all-powerful czar will not be easy, especially with Putin's actions in
Russia and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's anti-democratic
mandates.
Ukrainians are hard-working, industrious and well-educated, and clearly
deserve better governance. They will need the support of the international
community as they valiantly strive to establish a sound democracy as the
cornerstone of their future. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lawrence J. DeNardis, a former member of Congress, is president emeritus of
the University of New Haven, 300 Boston Post Road, West Haven, CT 06516.
Peter G. Torkildsen is executive director of the Massachusetts Work Force
Investment Board and a former congressman from Massachusetts. Readers may
write him at 1 Ashburton Place, Boston, MA 02108.
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 201: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
Letters to the editor are always welcome
========================================================
8. "UKRAINE'S BIG DECISION"
EDITORIAL: Christian Science Monitor
Boston, Massachusetts, Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Eastern Europe's largest country outside of Russia stands at a crossroads
this weekend, as voters in Ukraine decide between an autocratic leader who
leans toward an increasingly autocratic Russia, or a democratic one who
wants closer ties to the West.
People who live outside this part of Europe can be forgiven if they think of
Ukraine as a backwater. In the 1990s, the former Soviet republic dove into
an economic tailspin. What shot up were cronyism and corruption as oligarchs
vied for control. The country turned off even foreign investors, hardly the
faint of heart.
But backwater no more, Ukraine now laps the shores of the expanded European
Union (it's neighbor to newest EU members Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary).
Corruption and powerful business tycoons still grip the country, but thanks
to modest economic reforms and higher prices for steel exports, Ukraine's
economy has picked up since 2000, and this year clocked in an impressive
growth rate of more than 13 percent. And Ukrainians are active peacekeepers,
with 1,600 troops helping back the US in Iraq.
But even these factors, while reason enough for the world to prick up its
ears, play second to the healthy influence a more democratic and Western
oriented Ukraine might exert on Europe as a whole.
In Moscow's orbit for centuries, a progressive Ukraine could serve as a
beacon, pointing the way to Russia and northern neighbor Belarus, both
following a disturbing retro trend to the bad old days of strong-arm rule.
Ukraine's potential, however, is endangered by a presidential campaign
marked by violence, intimidation, biased media coverage, and - bizarrely -
the alleged (nonfatal) poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko, the leading
opposition candidate. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
========================================================
9. "CRUCIAL VOTE LOOMS IN UKRAINE"
Outcome May Determine Whether Nation Allies With EU or Russia
By Marc Champion, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal, New York, NY, Tue, 26 October 2004
KIEV, Ukraine -- As tough elections go, the campaign for Sunday's
presidential vote in Ukraine makes the pitched battle between the U.S.
presidential candidates look genteel.
When Viktor Yuschenko, the leading opposition candidate in Sunday's
presidential election here, broke out last month in lesions that disfigured
his face, acute pancreatitis and a sudden rash of stomach ulcers, taking him
off the campaign trail for a month, he said he was poisoned. "I am convinced
this was not a coincidence. I am convinced it was a planned, political act,"
he said last week in an interview.
Mr. Yuschenko's Austrian doctors were stumped and further tests are being
conducted in laboratories in the U.S. and elsewhere to determine whether
some poison was used. But Ukraine's state prosecutor has ruled that Mr.
Yuschenko had a simple virus and the government of his chief rival, Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych, denies any role. A campaign aide for Mr.
Yanukovych says the sickness was a result of the opposition candidate's
lifestyle.
The episode was just one sign of the bitterness of a presidential campaign
that could determine the direction of this former Soviet republic with a
territory larger than France and a population of 48 million.
Opinion polls put Messrs. Yuschenko and Yanukovych neck and neck at
the head of a field of 24 candidates in Sunday's presidential election. Mr.
Yanukovych is backed by the Ukraine's current president, Leonid Kuchma.
Mr. Yuschenko is a former prime minister credited with halting Ukraine's
economic collapse. With polls so close, a runoff vote next month appears
likely.
The contest has sucked in Russia and the U.S., with each side believing
Ukraine's presidential vote is crucial to whether the country -- which
borders the newly expanded European Union to the west, and Russia to the
east -- integrates with Euro-Atlantic or Russian-led alliances and
economies. While Ukraine's economy contracted by about 60% during the
1990s, the International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of more than
12% this year.
"We can't afford to miss the train to the European Union," Mr. Yuschenko
says, adding that the election represents a choice for Ukraine between the
Polish and Russian models of post-Soviet development.
For his part, Mr. Yanukovych has dropped Ukraine's strategic goal of joining
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, saying Ukraine should only join a
security alliance that includes Russia . The government has reversed a
commitment to transport oil pumped in the Caspian region by U.S. and other
oil companies from the Black Sea port of Odessa to Europe via western
Ukraine. Instead, the pipeline will pump Russian oil to Odessa, and out to
the world market by sea.
The election also has broader implications for the region. Ukraine's
democracy is among the most open of the former Soviet republics. As Russia
turns more authoritarian under President Vladimir Putin, any backsliding in
Ukraine's democratic commitment would have negative implications for
countries from Belarus -- Europe's last dictatorship -- to Georgia, says a
Western diplomat in Kiev.
After witnessing the replacement of former President Eduard Shevardnadze --
who resigned as Georgia's president following public protests of allegedly
rigged elections -- with the U.S.-supported Mikhail Saakashvili, Russia sees
Ukraine's vote as critical to assuring Moscow's influence in its own
backyard.
"This is a global play, and Russia is playing for the first time in 15
years, which is why people are so surprised. Suddenly, the rest of the world
is finding out that Russia has some national interests," says Vyacheslav
Nikonov, president of the Moscow-based Polity Foundation, who has spent
much of the election campaign in Kiev. "With Yuschenko, Ukraine could be
in NATO soon, very soon."
Russia 's involvement in Ukraine's election is unapologetic. On Thursday,
Mr. Putin is set to stand alongside Messrs. Kuchma and Yanukovych at an
annual military parade to celebrate Kiev's World War II liberation from Nazi
Germany -- three days before the election. The celebration has been moved
forward from its usual date of Nov. 6, which would have been a week after
the vote.
Russian backing is likely to be a boon for Mr. Yanukovych, analysts say.
Opinion polls repeatedly have shown Mr. Putin is the most popular politician
among Ukrainians and that better relations with Russia are among voters' top
priorities.
That is a sharp turnaround from a decade ago. In the early 1990s, most
Ukrainians, newly and nervously independent of Moscow, saw the U.S. and
NATO as welcome guarantors of security from their unpredictable larger
neighbor. But in the wake of the 1999 NATO bombing of fellow Slavs in
Yugoslavia, and the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq last year, U.S. stock has
fallen, and NATO is widely distrusted.
Earlier this month, supporters of Mr. Yuschenko found several million
brightly colored posters, and by their count 150 tons of other printed
anti-Yuschenko propaganda, in a government-owned warehouse. Two posters
pictured Mr. Yuschenko dressed as Uncle Sam. The caption on one: "Bosnia
& Herzegovina, Kosovo, Iraq...You're next."
Stepan Gavrish, a legislator and senior member of Mr. Yanukovych's campaign
team, acknowledges that the posters -- which breach Ukrainian laws and
haven't been distributed -- were found on property belonging to the
presidential administration, but says the government didn't control all of
its property and the posters had no connection with Mr. Yanukovych.
Other events during the campaign have provoked Western diplomatic reaction
against unfairness. In a recent speech, U.S. Ambassador John Herbst cited
biased state television coverage (the sole pro-opposition channel, TV5, had
its license to broadcast in Kiev revoked last week); obstruction of
opposition events (two plainclothes policemen were detained among a mob that
attacked opposition supporters Saturday); and use of state prosecution and
tax authorities to put pressure on businesses that support Mr. Yuschenko.
Both sides are now focusing on Election Day, when the opposition expects
the government to attempt ballot-box fraud, as it did in an April mayoral
election whose result was then canceled. Mr. Yuschenko has called for mass
street protests if there is fraud. The government has warned of a potential
street revolution by a partly U.S.-financed student group called Pora ("It's
Time"), and is conducting a sweep of activists it accuses of
errorism. --Alan Cullison in Moscow contributed to this article. -30-
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
WSJ: Marc Champion: marc.champion@wsj.com.
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
========================================================
10. EUROPEAN UNION DOUBTS UKRAINE'S FULFILLMENT
OF ITS DEMOCRATIC OBLIGATIONS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, October 27, 2004
KIEV - The European Union European Union doubts that the Ukrainian
Cabinet of Ministers is fulfilling its democratic obligations.
The heads of the diplomatic missions of the European Union's
member-countries announced this in a statement.
The Netherlands' Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Florence van Es, whose
country currently holds the presidency of the European Union, and Great
Britain's Ambssador Robert Brinkley read the statement to journalists in the
presence of the ambassadors of other member-countries of the EU.
"The undermining of opposition demonstrations, creation of problems for
independent mass media, attacks on public organizations, abuse of
administrative resources, and other serious violations vast doubt on the
course of government in relation to its democratic obligations to the
European Union," the statement says.
According to the statement, it was issued in connection with the latest
report on the conduct of the election campaign during the October 9-20
period, which was compiled by the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe's Bureau for Democratic Institutes and Human Rights.
The heads of the diplomatic missions of the European Union member-
countries expressed regret at the fact that all the reports of the
Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe express concern about Ukraine's
adherence of all the relevant international standards.
The Union also expressed its commitment to continue to support Ukraine's
progress toward integration into the European Union.
The EU also expressed its readiness to cooperate with any presidential
candidate who wins the elections in a free ad honest contest.
The Union called on Ukrainian citizens to exercise their voting rights in
the spirit of tolerance and mutual respect.
The European Union again called on the Ukrainian government to immediately
end the constant violation of democratic norms.
According to the statement, free elections will provide Ukraine with an
opportunity to move from cooperation with the European Union to integration
into the Union.
According to Steffen Skovmand, the acting head of the European Commission's
delegation top Ukraine, this statement will be sent to Ukrainian government
organs.
As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the European Union recently called on
the Ukrainian authorities to ensure that all presidential candidates have
equal access to the mass media. The EU also called on the Ukrainian
authorities to enable domestic observers to monitor the Ukrainian
presidential
elections. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.201: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
========================================================
11. TENSION BUILDS AS UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION ENTERS HOMESTRETCH
Desperation evident within Yanukovych campaign
By Taras Kuzio, Eurasia Daily Monitor
Volume 1, Issue 114, The Jamestown Foundation
Washington, D.C., Wednesday, October 27, 2004
On the eve of the October 31 Ukrainian presidential elections, the political
situation in the country may be spiraling out of control. President Leonid
Kuchma cancelled a one-day visit to Poland last weekend, blaming the
"complicated internal situation in Ukraine." On October 25 he again attacked
the opposition for their campaign activities, while staying conspicuously
silent about massive election violations (Ukrayinska pravda, October 25).
The authorities believed that by September the election momentum would have
shifted in their favor. Instead, challenger Viktor Yushchenko's lead over
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has continued to grow, causing panic in the
Kuchma camp.
The government doubled pensions to $53 per month (285 hryvnia), at a cost of
an additional 1.1 billion hryvnia ($206 million). The move drove inflation
up from 6.3% to 9%, created gasoline shortages, and triggered a rush on the
hryvnia. Ukraine's National Bank, headed by Yanukovych's campaign manager
Serhiy Tyhipko, had to tap its foreign currency reserves to keep the hryvnia
stable. Interest rates are also set to go up. Still, Yanukovych has
persisted in trying to induce voters, offering interest-free loans for
property purchases and free cars for pensioners.
Doubling pensions and two new policy initiatives (making Russian an official
language and allowing dual citizenship) brought Yanukovych an additional
10-15% in the ratings, primarily from Communist supporters. However,
Communist voters did not stay with Yanukovych long. A Razumkov Center poll
found that 62% of respondents in eastern Ukraine and 74-76% in other regions
believe that the pension increase was a pre-election ploy to raise
Yanukovych's popularity (Ukrayinska pravda, October 26).
Communist Party candidate Petro Symonenko continues to lead in two oblasts
where Yanukovych must win to enter round two of the elections. Worse still
for Yanukovych, in Luhansk oblast, which together with Donetsk makes up his
Donbas power base, coal miners are on strike demanding the payment of wage
arrears.
Public rallies are becoming more tenuous as the campaign winds up. Although
President Kuchma had admitted that "provocations" would take place, he
called upon law enforcement to "not react to provocations" (Ukrayinska
pravda, October 25). In reality, law enforcement have been directly involved
in "provocations" throughout the campaign.
On October 23 a rally in support of Yushchenko that ended outside the
Central Election Commission (CEC) attracted 100,000 people, despite numerous
obstacles used to block his supporters from traveling to Kyiv. That evening
200 demonstrators remained outside the CEC to support the opposition members
inside, who were attempting to prevent the creation of further election
stations in Russia, which they fear will be fraudulently used by Russia on
behalf of Yanukovych's candidacy.
One hundred plain clothes "demonstrators" attacked the remaining opposition
protestors that night. They were brought to the CEC by a spetsnaz unit
(Tytan) within the Interior Ministry. Two of the "demonstrators" were later
detained by the opposition, after they were discovered to have identity
cards showing them to be Interior Ministry captains, suggesting the
collusion of law enforcement with Yanukovych's campaign (Financial Times,
October 25).
Despite widespread arrests and intimidation of opposition and youth NGOs,
these groups are fighting back. A student rally on October 16 in Kyiv
attracted 25,000 in support of Yushchenko. In Lviv, 2,000 picketed the
Interior Ministry and State Administration to protest repression of youth
groups and 10,000 attended a Lviv rally on October 26 in protest at the
arrest of youth activists. Whenever police have attempted to enter student
facilities without warrants, they have been refused entry, such as at Kyiv
Mohyla Academy.
The authorities have begun to reveal their growing panic in four ways.
FIRST, local authorities have attempted to block Yushchenko's campaign tour
of southern and eastern Ukraine. In Kirovohrad a temporary zoo was even
installed on the square where he was meant to speak. Other cities have
refused to let his plane land in their jurisdictions.
SECOND, the authorities are beginning to realize that only Yushchenko can
bring out large crowds. A pro-Yanukovych rally in Kyiv providing free
alcohol still only attracted 500 people.
Yushchenko and Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz have called upon their
supporters to picket the CEC and regional election commissions on election
night to prevent fraud. After Saturday's rally the authorities began
building a fence around the CEC. In response, the Socialist Party issued a
statement that said, "The authorities are scaring us with a 'Georgian
scenario' when they themselves are developing a 'Belarusian scenario' "
(Ukrayinska pravda, October 25).
THIRD, members of the pro-presidential camp who are neutral between
Yushchenko and Yanukovych have fallen under suspicion. Both parliamentary
speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and former presidential adviser Oleksandr Volkov
have recently complained that the Security Service is following their
movements. Both Lytvyn and Volkov have warned of dire consequences if they
or their families, who are also under surveillance, are harmed. Former
Interior Minister Yuriy Krawchenko, who was dismissed in February 2001
because of his involvement in the murder of opposition journalist Heorhiy
Gongadze, has fled with his family to Russia because of fears he might
become a scapegoat to deflect blame from Kuchma.
FOURTH, remaining independent media outlets have come under assault. Both
Channel 5, linked to Our Ukraine businessman Petro Poroshenko, and Era TV,
linked to Dnipropetrovsk oligarch Andrei Derkach, have been threatened with
closure. The reason is their objective coverage of the elections: the
authorities fear that they will provide uncensored news on election day.
Reporters Without Frontiers ranked Ukraine 138th in its just-released Press
Freedom Index, the lowest in Europe apart from Russia which is 140th
(rsf.org).
It is little surprise that tension is running very high. On October 14, the
head of Yushchenko's election campaign, Oleksandr Zinchenko, sent an open
letter to the National Security and Defense Council outlining how the
authorities, through their election violations, are threatening national
security (razom.org.ua). Our Ukraine also issued a statement outlining its
fears of the violent measures that the authorities were planning on election
day to forestall an opposition victory (Ukrayinska pravda, October 22).
========================================================
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