"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO WINS ROUND ONE - FINALLY
SENATOR DICK LUGAR TO REPRESENT PRESIDENT BUSH IN
UKRAINE DURING ROUND TWO OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 214
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C.; THURSDAY, November 11, 2004
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1.VIKTOR YUSCHENKO WINS 39.87% OF VOTES IN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS WHILE VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH WINS 39.32%,
ACCORDING TO CEC'S TALLY OF 100% OF PROTOCOLS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
2. CEC APPROVES PLAN OF PREPARATIONS FOR SECOND ROUND
New President must take office by January 8, 2005
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
3.SENATOR LUGAR TO REPRESENT PRESIDENT BUSH IN UKRAINE
DURING ROUND TWO OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Congressional Press Releases, U.S. Congress
Washington, D.C., Wednesday, November 10, 2004
4. . SERHIY TYHYPKO, CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR UKRAINIAN
PM VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH UNFAZED BY FIRST ROUND DEFEAT
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Wed, Nov 10, 2004
5. YUSHCHENKO HQ SAYS CEC LOWERED THE NUMBER OF
VOTES FOR YUSHCHENKO AND INFLATED THE NUMBER OF
VOTES FOR YANUKOVYCH IN THE LAST 10 DAYS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
6. ANATOLII KINAKH CONSIDERS UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION NEITHER TRANSPARENT NOR DEMOCRATIC
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
7. POLL SAYS VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO COULD WIN ROUND
TWO IN UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Interfax-Ukraine news agency, Kiev, in Russian, 9 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Tue, Nov 09, 2004
8. VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH FINALLY DECIDES TO PARTICIPATE
IN PRESIDENTIAL TV DEBATE WITH VIKTOR YUSCHENKO
Ukrainian News Service, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
9. UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER VOLODYMYR LYTVYN
WILL VISIT THE USA TO MEET WITH AUTHORITIES NOV 14-16
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
10. UKRAINE'S GOVERNORS FACE RETRIBUTION AFTER
FIRST ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Ukrayinska Pravda web site, Kiev, in Ukrainian 3 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service,UK, in English, Tue, Nov 09, 2004
11. POST-ELECTION BLUES IN THE YANUKOVYCH CAMP
Will Yanukovych remove himself from the presidential run-off?
By Taras Kuzio, The Eurasia Daily Monitor
Vol 1, Issue 124, The Jamestown Foundation
Washington, D.C., Wednesday, November 10, 2004
12. UKRAINE WEB SITE RELEASES "PRIME MINISTERS"
LEAKED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION STRATEGY FOR ROUND TWO
Source: Ukrayinska Pravda web site, Kiev, in Ukrainian 8 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, Mon, November 8, 2004
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 214: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
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1.VIKTOR YUSCHENKO WINS 39.87% OF VOTES IN PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS WHILE VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH WINS 39.32%,
ACCORDING TO CEC'S TALLY OF 100% OF PROTOCOLS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
KYIV - 39.87% of voters cast their ballot in favor of Our Ukraine
Coalition leader Viktor Yuschenko and 39.32% voted for Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the Central Election Commission has
calculated the voting returns from 100% protocols of election
commissions. This was disclosed to journalists by the Central Election
Commission's head Serhii Kivalov. The data include votes of
27,897,559 persons.
Candidate %Number of votes Number of persons
Viktor Yuschenko 39.87% 11,125,395
Viktor Yanukovych 39.32% 10,969,579
Oleksandr Moroz 5.81% 1,621,154
Petro Symonenko 4.97% 1,388,045
Natalia Vitrenko 1.53% 426,897
Anatolii Kinakh 0.93% 260,890
[rest of candidates not shown]
The second round is expected to be held on November 21.
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
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2. CEC APPROVES PLAN OF PREPARATIONS FOR SECOND ROUND
New President must take office by January 8, 2005
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
KYIV - The Central Election Commission has approved the plan of
preparations for the second round of presidential elections. Pursuant to
the plan, the CEC has permitted to campaign from November 11 to
November 19. The final voting day is scheduled for November 21.
(1) The CEC has ordered the district election commissions (DECs) to
send it voters' lists for examination not later than 10 days before the
voting day.
(2) The CEC has ordered the DECs to notify voters of the voting date
and polling station's address not later than 7 days before the voting day.
(3) The CEC has decided to print voting papers not later than 6 days
before the voting day.
(4) The CEC has scheduled televisions debates between the candidates
for November 15.
(5) The CEC has ordered the territorial election commissions (TECs)
to deliver voting papers to the DECs not earlier than November 18.
(6) The CEC has ordered administrators of candidates' election funds
to stop spending these funds at 15:00 on November 20.
(7) The CEC has decided to publish the results of the second round
voting not later than December 6.
(8) The CEC has decided to terminate powers of the TECs on
December 24.
(9) And finally, the CEC has decided that the new President must take
office by January 8 [2005]. -30- [Action Ukraine Monitoring Service]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
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3. SENATOR LUGAR TO REPRESENT PRESIDENT BUSH IN UKRAINE
DURING ROUND TWO OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Congressional Press Release, U.S. Congress
Washington, D.C., Wednesday, November 10, 2004
WASHINGTON - President George W. Bush has asked U.S. Senate
Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Dick Lugar to represent him in
Ukraine during the November 21, 2004 run-off election between Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovich and the opposition candidate Viktor
Yushchenko. In August 2001, President Bush asked Lugar to be the
official representative of United States at the 10th anniversary of
Ukrainian independence.
On Monday, November 15 at 12 noon, Lugar will hold a press conference
on the Ukrainian elections. At the press conference he will also announce
new Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction legislation that he will
introduce. The press conference will be in the Senate Radio Gallery of
the U.S. Capitol.
In a statement today on the mission to Ukraine, Lugar said:
"On November 4, at his press conference, President Bush expressed his
unequivocal support for democracy around the world. He said: 'I simply
do not agree with those who either say overtly or believe that certain
societies cannot be free. It's just not part of my thinking.' I agree
with the President.
"The United States must be at the forefront of international efforts to
secure freedom. Democracy must be the core of our foreign policy. It
must be a central element of our outreach and diplomacy. Our country
must be prepared to play an active role in ensuring that democracy and
basic freedoms are promoted and preserved around the world.
"I visited Ukraine in August of this year and enjoyed a 25 minute
telephone conversation with President Kuchma. We discussed the need
for a free and fair electoral process. He invited me to return to witness
the elections. I am pleased now to do so.
"When the Soviet Union crumbled, Ukraine emerged as one of the most
geo-strategically significant states in the world. The breadbasket of
Europe inherited the third largest nuclear arsenal. Senator Sam Nunn and
I visited Kiev in 1992 to discuss Ukraine's nuclear future and to offer
Nunn-Lugar assistance to dismantle their arsenal. After spirited debate,
the leaders of Ukraine wisely chose a nuclear-free status. The U.S. has
provided more than $670 million to dismantle hundreds of SS-19 and
SS-24 ballistic missiles, silos, long-range bombers, and nuclear air-
launched cruise missiles.
"In those days the United States did not have an Ambassador or an
embassy in Ukraine. I visited with Secretary of State Baker and informed
him of the conditions in Ukraine and the need for a strong diplomatic
presence as well as American assistance. Although the times and
circumstances have changed, the need for strong American interest and
diplomacy in Ukraine has not.
"The November 21st run-off is critical to the future of Ukraine. A
secure and democratic Ukraine is in the national security interests of
the United States, NATO, the European Union, and Russia. The future
of Ukraine will be decided not necessarily by the outcome, but by the
conduct of the upcoming elections. To date, the campaign has been
marked by widespread political intimidation and the failure to give equal
coverage to opposition candidates by the media. Numerous allegations
of the government's illegal utilization of administrative resources to
promote allies in parliamentary elections and unlawful use of federal
tax and legal investigations are troubling. Free and fair elections with
equal access to media outlets in the absence of physical intimidation
and misappropriated funds will be a tribute to Ukraine's maturing
democracy and will place Ukraine on a path to join the community of
European democracy.
"A fraudulent or illegal victory would leave Ukraine's leadership and
country crippled. The new president would lack legitimacy with the
Ukrainian people and the international community. A Ukrainian
government whose authority reflected the lack of respect for the
democratic rights of its citizens could have deleterious effects on
Europe with the potential proliferation of crime, illegal immigration,
narcotics and other problems to its neighbors and the region.
"The Bush Administration has invested a great deal of time and energy to
deliver a firm message to Ukraine. The Secretary of Defense, the Deputy
Secretary of State, former Secretaries of State Madeleine Albright and
Henry Kissinger, and Congressional leaders have visited, written and
called Ukrainian leaders to press for a free and fair election process.
Secretary of State Powell's leadership and the efforts of our
Ambassador, John Herbst, have left no doubt of the impact an
illegitimate election could have on the future of Ukraine and the
U.S.-Ukrainian relationship.
"With the stakes so high, I applaud the thousands of election observers
who will be sent by the U.S. and European states through organizations
such as the National Endowment for Democracy and the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe. The presence of experienced election
observers and democracy advocates will serve to dissuade illegal
activities and make fraud more difficult to disguise. The future of the
country rests with Ukrainian voters, but the United States and the West
must continue to support a foundation for democracy, rule of law and a
market economy, which will allow Ukraine to prosper and reach its full
potential.
"Ukraine has made wise decisions in the past. The voluntary dismantling
of its nuclear arsenal and the peaceful, democratic handover of power
from former President Kravchuk to President Kuchma in 1994 highlight an
important record of progress. Will Ukraine continue its march towards
membership in Western institutions?
"With democratic forces challenged in Russia and Belarus, the West
must commit itself to ensuring a free and fair electoral process in Ukraine.
This is a true turning point in Ukraine's history that could have
widespread effects beyond its borders and the region.
"My mission will not be to advocate the election of one candidate or
another, but to promote the need for a free and fair process. This
election is important to the United States, and my presence in Ukraine
during this important time is meant to underscore President Bush's
support for the future of Ukraine. Free and fair elections in Ukraine
embody our hope and goal of a Europe whole and free." -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
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4. SERHIY TYHYPKO, CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR UKRAINIAN
PM VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH UNFAZED BY FIRST ROUND DEFEAT
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Wed, Nov 10, 2004
KIEV - The campaign chief of Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych,
Serhiy Tyhypko, has said he accepts the official results of the first round,
in which Yanukovych lost to opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko by 0.55
per cent. Tyhypko said Yanukovych had managed to close a big ratings gap
with Yushchenko over the past few months. He also alleged electoral fraud in
some regions where Yushchenko won. He said he was confident of a
Yanukovych victory in the runoff round on 21 November. The following is
the text of a report by the Ukrainian news agency UNIAN:
KIEV - The head of Viktor Yanukovych's presidential campaign HQ,
Serhiy Tyhypko, is satisfied with the first round results and predicts
Yanukovych's victory in the runoff round by a 3-4-per-cent margin. This is
how Tyhypko commented on the release of the first round election results.
"I am convinced that we should be proud of this result, because we all
understand very well where we started," Tyhypko said. He recalled that
opinion polls in January indicated that Yanukovych was supported by 12 per
cent of the voters, while [opposition leader] Viktor Yushchenko had 27 per
cent. In June, Yanukovych had 16 per cent and Yushchenko 27 per cent.
"Now we have pretty much equal ratings of about 40 per cent. We are
satisfied with this result, we accept this result. Even though we have many
objections concerning the voting, especially in western regions. These
objections concern one thing: it was not people who voted but passports,"
Tyhypko said.
[The Yanukovych team has alleged that in western Ukraine, where
Yushchenko won by a big margin, many people voted for their relatives
who are working abroad using their passports.]
"We know very well what to do now," Tyhypko said. He noted that the
government will continue its social initiatives and will fulfil its
obligations to pensioners, invalids, students and low-income families. He
also promised that "you will hear about new initiatives soon". Tyhypko is
convinced that the leftist electorate will vote for Yanukovych. He said that
opinion polls indicate that.
He also said that his team "will step up control in all the regions to make
sure that it is not passports who vote but people". "We shall address the
voters in the South and East and tell them that if they do not vote, their
president will be elected by others," Tyhypko said. He said he was convinced
that the voter turnout in the South and East will be much higher in the
second round. He said that no-one expected such a high turnout in western
regions. "Fifteen per cent more people came to polling stations than the
number of people who live in the region," he said. But he added that "there
is a decision of the Central Electoral Commission and we must abide by
that". He also noted that some court rulings on results in certain regions
were not taken into account in the results announced today. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
5. YUSHCHENKO HQ SAYS CEC LOWERED THE NUMBER OF
VOTES FOR YUSHCHENKO AND INFLATED THE NUMBER OF
VOTES FOR YANUKOVYCH IN THE LAST 10 DAYS
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
KYIV - The campaign headquarters of the Our Ukraine bloc's leader
and presidential candidate, Viktor Yuschenko, reckons that the Central
Election Commission (CEC) lowered the number of votes that were cast
in favor of Yuschenko in the first round of the presidential election in the
results that it announced.
Yuschenko's authorized representative, Verkhovna Rada deputy Mykola
Katerynchuk, stated this to journalists. "We consider that the figures, the
absolute numbers of Viktor Yuschenko are more," said Katerynchuk.
He also added that he considers that the CEC's data on the number of
votes cast in favor of presidential candidate, Prime Minister Viktor
Yanukovych were inflated. "We consider that Viktor Yanukovych's
figures absolutely do not reflect realities," said Katerynchuk.
In his words, Yuschenko's campaign headquarters will examine the
discrepancies in the vote counting that was done by the CEC and the
number of votes counted by Yuschenko's team on the basis of the
protocols that were received from the election commissions.
The CEC has given the go-ahead to Yuschenko and Yanukovych to
participate in the second round of the presidential election. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
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6. ANATOLII KINAKH CONSIDERS UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION NEITHER TRANSPARENT NOR DEMOCRATIC
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
KYIV - The Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs leader and
presidential candidate Anatolii Kinakh has expressed the belief that
the October 31 Ukrainian presidential elections were neither transparent
nor democratic. He expressed this belief to journalists at a pres
conference.
Kinakh said that falsification and mass violations of Ukrainian citizens'
right to freely express their will were observed during the presidential
elections and that this has increased citizens' resistance and social
tension in the society.
"This goes beyond not only the boundaries of business and political
ethics. It has turned not only into a struggle between the authorities and
the opposition, but also into a struggle against one's own people," Kinakh
said. He criticized the Central Electoral Commission for artificially
delaying announcement of the results of the presidential elections.
He also stressed that what is going on now is not a competition among
the programs of the presidential candidates but a competition among
outlooks on the world, in which the society must decide its future
direction: either to live by the laws of honor, fairness, and respect for
people or to live by the opposite laws.
Kinakh further said that information based on his election campaign
headquarters' parallel vote count indicates that the number of votes that
the CEC said that he won was 4-5% lower than the number of people
who actually voted for him. According to him, his election campaign
headquarters is presently preparing to file lawsuits based on these data.
Kinakh stressed the need to counter falsification of the results of the
expected second round of the presidential elections, ensure the rights of
citizens to freely express their will, and create the necessary conditions
for transparent and honest competition between the remaining candidates.
"We will join forces will all those who do not want Ukraine to split along
the east-west line," Kinakh said.
As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the People's Power election coalition,
which unites the Our Ukraine coalition and the Yulia Tymoshenko Coalition,
has reached agreement with the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs on
supporting the Our Ukraine coalition's leader and presidential candidate
Viktor Yuschenko in the second round of the presidential elections.
The presidential elections took place on October 31. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Additional names for the distribution list are always welcome
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7. POLL SAYS VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO COULD WIN ROUND
TWO IN UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Interfax-Ukraine news agency, Kiev, in Russian, 9 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Tue, Nov 09, 2004
KIEV - Opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko stands
a good chance of winning the second round of the elections on 21
November, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported, quoting the
Kiev-based Razumkov polling centre.
According to the results of the poll conducted by the centre on 3-7
November, 44 per cent of Ukrainians will cast their ballots for
Yushchenko and 37 per cent for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych,
while 12 per cent are undecided, 5 per cent said they would vote against
both candidates and 2 per cent said they would not cast their ballots in
the second round.
The poll involved 2,027 respondents older than 18 years of age in 122
towns representing all Ukrainian regions, the agency said. The error
margin was estimated at no more than 2.3 per cent. Polling was
anonymous to exclude "the fear factor", the agency added.
Asked the question of who stands a higher chance of becoming Ukraine's
next president, 35 per cent named Yanukovych and 29 per cent named
Yushchenko. -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
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8. VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH FINALLY DECIDES TO PARTICIPATE
IN PRESIDENTIAL TV DEBATE WITH VIKTOR YUSCHENKO
Ukrainian News Service, Kyiv, Ukraine, Wed, November 10, 2004
KYIV - Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who is a candidate in this
year's presidential elections, has decided to debate the Our Ukraine
coalition's leader and presidential candidate Viktor Yuschenko on
television ahead of the second round of this year's presidential elections.
Yanukovych announced this to journalists.
"I have nevertheless made the decision to set emotions aside and go to
the television debates. I will go to the television debates," Yanukovych
said. Yanukovych said that he has received many letters from voters
lately and that the letters persuaded him to participate in television
debates that will facilitate better evaluation of the advantages of each
of the presidential candidates.
"All the same, television debates provide an opportunity to see who is
who, and I have something to take to the television debates," Yanukovych
said. He also expressed his readiness to attribute the insults hauled at him
by Yuschenko and his supporters to emotion.
"I am satisfied that Viktor Andriiovych [Yuschenko] understands that these
were emotions. I believe that every person has emotions. At the sake time,
we must all understand that the elections will end and life will continue,"
Yanukovych said.
Yuschenko's election campaign headquarters has accused Yanukovych
of setting conditions for participating in televised election debates in a
bid to avoid them.
Yanukovych's campaign manager Serhii Tihipko recently told journalists
that his campaign team had started preparation for Yanukovych's televised
election debates with Yuschenko but added that Yanukovych would debate
Yuschenko only if Yuschenko apologized for the alleged insults. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 214: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
Letters to the editor are always welcome
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9. UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER VOLODYMYR LYTVYN
WILL VISIT THE USA TO MEET WITH AUTHORITIES NOV 14-16
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, November 10, 2004
KYIV - Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn will visit the USA to
meet with authorities on November 14-16.
This was disclosed to Ukrainian News by press service of the Verkhovna
Rada. According to data of the press service, Lytvyn visits the USA on
invitation of American part to discuss bilateral relation at the
parliamentary and governmental level. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTNOTE: Reports indicate Ukrainian Parliament Speaker
Volodymyr Lytvyn's invitation to the U.S. came from some of
his counterparts in the United States Congress. [Editor]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
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10. UKRAINE'S GOVERNORS FACE RETRIBUTION AFTER
FIRST ROUND OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Ukrayinska Pravda web site, Kiev, in Ukrainian 3 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service,UK, in English, Tue, Nov 09, 2004
KIEV - Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych is to get tough
with some regional governors after the first round of the presidential
elections, an opposition web site has said. According to voting results
made public, Yanukovych trailed behind opposition leader Viktor
Yushchenko in 17 out of 27 regions in the first round of the poll on
31 October.
Speaking to his cabinet after the vote, Yanukovych blamed his poor
showing in those regions on poor performance by the local government,
the site reported. But the governors are being made scapegoats for the
cabinet's reckless welfare spending, the site concluded.
The following is the text of her article entitled "Yanukovych has threatened
governors with retribution for loss of authority," posted on the Ukrayinska
Pravda web site on 5 November; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
How else could the extended session of the Cabinet of Ministers following
the first round begin than with a debate on the elections? They had scarcely
had time to greet one another before Prime Minister [Viktor] Yanukovych
was calling for an inquiry into the events to ensure that what could have
been avoided does not happen again at a crucial moment. The whole irony
of this phrase, which not only marked the beginning but also set the tone
of the meeting, is that the government candidate again believes it possible
to avoid the inevitable final outcome of the ballot.
The prime minister's optimism is clearly being fuelled by the data of the
Central Electoral Commission and the exit polls which showed an
approximately equal level of support for the main candidates. However, a
glass which is half full for one may appear half empty to the other.
Regardless of what the impatient supporters are saying today, the candidates
are running neck and neck. But whereas for [leading opposition candidate]
Viktor Yushchenko today's result was achieved not without difficulty but
with something to spare, for Viktor Yanukovych his current level of support
was ensured only through extreme effort and straining every sinew. They
pulled out all the stops and there was nothing left in the tank.
Even before the first round they brought out the heavy artillery - pension
benefits - and there was no ammunition left in the arsenal, which was
confirmed by the present cabinet session. At first social issues were
raised, and everybody expected new populist steps and statements. But in
fact it was precisely decisions on social issues, which could have persuaded
some people to vote for the premier in three weeks' time, which were not
adopted.
CABINET "LOSING CONTROL"
Well, there were no surprises - from the phrases which were casually thrown
into [Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Mykola] Azarov's speech about
the fact that financial discipline needs to be toughened up and the size of
the budget increased, it became clear that it was also going to be difficult
to fulfil earlier promises. And talk of a brake on the reimbursement of wage
arrears, which even before this not exactly being paid off in a rush,
suggests that the cabinet is simply losing control over these processes.
And no matter how over-cautious Yanukovych has been with the press,
however much he has been repeating that the executive must carry out its
work as though there were no elections at all, still the veiled threats
expressed to the governors three days after the elections once again
reaffirmed what the premier is expecting from the executive chain of
command and what will happen if his expectations are not realized.
PREMIER GETS TOUGH IN REGIONS
"The people are voting against the authorities in those regions where the
local authorities are not doing their job," Yanukovych said, and he promised
to sort it out. "I have many such examples and I will sort them out after
the elections," he reassured the governors present. "Explain to the people
that in today's political climate there are politicians who during all the
years of independence have chalked up debts all over the place, on wages,
have violated their state commitments, squandered state property, and have
laughed at the people. And now they are again trying to get into power, and
now they are derogating the work we have been doing," Yanukovych added.
But does he really believe that the people cannot tell a negligent rural
leader from the head of the cabinet who is laying claims to be the leader of
the nation? Or is he convinced that in places like Luhansk or Donetsk
regions, which gave over 80 per cent of votes for the government candidate,
life is beautiful, all issues have already been resolved, there are no small
freezing mining towns, no roads full of potholes, broken water pipes, and
where one is struck by how reasonable prices are?
Or perhaps his respect for his own people extends so far that he thinks that
people's political opinions and preferences are based exclusively on whether
the street lamps work or not and whether the pavements are asphalted or
not? Of course, there are various opinions regarding the intellectual
capabilities of the government candidate, but surely he cannot seriously
believe all this.
This might also be a time to recall that recently Viktor Yanukovych has very
often focused attention on the responsibility of the local authorities. Now
it has become finally clear what precisely he meant by this. On Wednesday
[3 November] it was made clear to everyone that those local power
representatives who failed to secure the right result in the ballot would
have to face all the delights of the prime minister's vengeance, served with
a dressing of getting things in order and improving work efficiency in the
provinces on socially important problems. Some of the governors listened to
all this, devotedly glancing up at the platform, but many lowered their gaze
and one could see by their faces that they were uneasy. And indeed,
retribution may be feared only from the victor, the loser can't do much
about it. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
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11. POST-ELECTION BLUES IN THE YANUKOVYCH CAMP
Will Yanukovych remove himself from the presidential run-off?
By Taras Kuzio, The Eurasia Daily Monitor
Vol 1, Issue 124, The Jamestown Foundation
Washington, D.C., Wednesday, November 10, 2004
Rumors from sources close to the Russian presidential administration have
suggested that Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych might be ready
to withdraw from the second round of the presidential elections, set for
November 21 (top.rbc.ru, November 5). Such a drastic step would ensure a
second round run-off between Viktor Yushchenko and Socialist Oleksandr
Moroz, who came in third, believing that Moroz would have a better chance
of defeating Yushchenko.
While the Yanukovych camp refuted these rumors, their wide circulation
reflects the post-election blues that dominate the Yanukovych camp. They
failed to engineer a wide lead in round one through shady methods. In
reality Yushchenko won unofficially by a wide margin, even official results
show the two dead even.
These post-election blues have been deepened by three factors.
FIRST, a Razumkov Center poll pointed to an overwhelming lead for
Yushchenko among prospective voters in round two: 54% to only 46%
for Yanukovych. These figures resemble the real results known to the
Yanukovych camp and reflected in exit polls, namely a first-round
Yushchenko victory with 54% (Independent, November 2).
SECOND, future polls are likely to show an even larger lead for Yushchenko
in round two, because they will reflect the broadening of his support base.
Except for Progressive Socialist leader Natalia Vitrenko (who polled 1.5%),
Yanukovych has failed to attract additional political support from
influential political forces defeated in round one. The Communist Party
(KPU) has refused to endorse either of the two remaining candidates. Many
of the 5% intending to vote against both candidates in the Razumkov
poll could be Communists.
A leaked internal document from the Yanukovych camp outlines desperate
steps to be taken to attract left-wing voters, including plans to celebrate
the "Great Socialist Revolution" on November 7, commissioning an article
for Silski Visti, a large-circulation newspaper aligned with the Socialists,
and drafting a letter to the November 4 plenum of the Central Committee
of the Communist Party (Ukrayinska pravda, November 8). None of
these three steps has succeeded.
Communist leader Petro Symonenko's "against both" position is being
challenged from both sides. Within his lower ranks there are clamors for the
KPU to follow the Socialists (SPU) and come out in support of Yushchenko,
while Russia's Communists are lobbying the KPU to follow Vitrenko's lead and
back Yanukovych (www.razom.org.ua, November 9; Itar-Tass, November 5).
Yushchenko, meanwhile, has signed agreements with three important political
forces. While his Our Ukraine and the SPU split over constitutional reforms
earlier this year, Moroz has endorsed Yushchenko and promised that 90% of
his supporters would back Yushchenko in the run-off (www.yushchenko.com.ua,
Ukrayinska pravda, November 6).
Other defectors to Yushchenko come from a parliamentary faction ostensibly
in the pro-presidential camp. Former Prime Minister Anatoliy Kinakh, now
head of the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (SPPU) and the party
of the same name, which President Leonid Kuchma led in 1993-94, was also
a candidate in round one. Kinakh always stated that he would never support
Yanukovych in round two, thus Kinakh signed an agreement whereby his party
will now throw their support to Yushchenko (www.yushchenko.com.ua,
November 8). The "Democratic Platform" of the People's Democratic Party
(NDP) also signed an agreement with Yushchenko. These moves reveal
deep cracks within the pro-presidential camp.
The agreement signed between the "Democratic Platform" and Yushchenko
condemns the first round as "non-transparent, undemocratic, falsified and,
as such, elections that took place with severe and massive infringement of
citizen's rights to freely vote" (Ukrayinska pravda, November 9).
Ironically, NDP leader Valeriy Pustovoitenko is the coordinator for the
political parties supporting Yanukovych, against whom this statement is
directed.
THIRD, the feeling of powerlessness that so pervaded Ukrainian citizens
until the Kuchmagate crisis has gone. The new Razumkov poll shows that
Yushchenko voters now believe their candidate may actually win.
Other factors reflect this growing popular confidence in the media and the
security forces, both of whom were important in the 2000 Serbian and 2003
Georgian democratic revolutions. A revolt against media censorship has been
spearheaded by 329 television journalists from state and private TV channels
(www.telekritika.kiev.ua/comments/?id=18156).
The head of the State Television Channel 1 news program "Visti" was removed
this week because he refused to continue using temnyky (secret instructions
issued by the presidential administration). Television journalists are
planning a full-scale revolt two or three days before the second round. The
timing is aimed to prevent station owners or controllers, who tend to be
Yanukovych supporters, from removing them from work. Thus more balanced
coverage on television could be in the offing on election day.
Another important institution for the second round is the police. Regional
branches of the Yushchenko camp have been secretly visited for some months
by police officers who pass on intelligence about the illegal involvement of
policemen in the elections. These policemen categorically state their
unwillingness to use firearms against peaceful demonstrators if they protest
election fraud.
Several Kharkiv policemen who wrote an open -- but anonymous -- letter to
parliament documenting wide-scale election fraud by the regional governor
and the Interior Ministry (www.razom.org.ua, November 8; UNIAN,
November 9).
One of the most serious charges concerned the delivery of additional ballots
that were added to the Yanukovych vote in Kharkiv oblast. Interior Ministry
cadets were also sent to western Ukraine, armed with 10 absentee ballots
each.
These emerging cracks in Ukraine's semi-authoritarian system have been
deepened by sustained pressure from the opposition. On November 6,
70,000 Ukrainians rallied in Kyiv in support of Yushchenko, who appeared
with Moroz. The rally was re-broadcast around Ukraine, where it could
be viewed in the central squares of most oblast centers.
At the rally, Yushchenko called for a mass mobilization of his supporters
and a strike to begin in the last week of round two. The PORA (It's Time!)
youth group, modeled on Serbia's OTPOR, is organizing a general strike by
students throughout Ukraine to begin on November 15. PORA has already
organized a rally attended by 4,000 students outside parliament protesting
election fraud. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.214: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
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12. UKRAINE WEB SITE RELEASES "PRIME MINISTERS"
LEAKED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION STRATEGY FOR ROUND II
Source: Ukrayinska Pravda web site, Kiev, in Ukrainian 8 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, Mon, November 8, 2004
A Ukrainian pro-opposition web site has published what it says is a leaked
action plan of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych election headquarters ahead
of the runoff round of the presidential election on 21 November. Proposals
in the document include "escalation of confrontation" and measures to
discredit Victor Yushchenko, the opposition candidate.
Yushchenko should be portrayed as aggressive, radical and confrontational,
but that could be difficult given the position of national TV channels, the
document says, apparently referring to recent journalist protests against
government meddling in editorial policy. The document also says that
measures should be taken to increase voter turnout in parts of Ukraine
that support Yanukovych and reduce it in the regions that voted for
Yushchenko.
The following is an excerpt from an 8 November report by the Ukrainian
Ukrayinska Pravda web site, which has been strongly supportive of Viktor
Yushchenko throughout the campaign:
The Yanukovych team is preparing for the second round of the election in
the same way as it prepared for the first.
[Passage omitted: web site comments on the contents of the document]
>From reliable sources we have received the action plan of the Yanukovych
headquarters. Not the headquarters that is wasting time in the Zoryanyy
cinema theatre - the real headquarters, which includes all the leading
figures of the Yanukovych team, and the entire government hierarchy.
[Passage omitted: more comments]
Now let us recall who the people mentioned in the document are:
Larin (parliament member, Regions of Ukraine faction)
Tolstoukhov (minister of the Cabinet of Ministers)
Levenets (political analyst, worked with Kuchma in 1994 and 1999
[presidential elections])
Klyuyev (deputy prime minister)
Tyhypko (head of the National Bank)
Bohatyryova (parliament member, leader of the Regions of Ukraine faction)
Havrysh (parliament member, Yanukovych representative at the Central
Electoral Commission)
Prutnik (Yanukovych adviser)
Pustovoytenko (parliament member, leader of the People's Democratic Party)
Yakovenko (head of Yanukovych adviser group)
Pohrebynskyy (political analyst, Medvedchuk adviser)
Granovskiy ([Russian] political analyst)
Kuzhel (former head of the State Committee for Enterprise)
Kuras (academician)
Now print this document out and compare it to what will happen over
the next 12 days. Reprinted in the language of the original [Russian]:
[Text of the "action plan" follows, subheadings as in the original]
Strategy blueprint for the second round of the presidential campaign
Work should be carried out under three scenarios simultaneously:
FIRST - INERTIAL [SCENARIO]
This scenario puts the bets on the election day, i.e. all efforts are
focused on collecting every possible vote on 21 November 2004. No
substantial changes will be made to the nature of the campaign, the image of
the Candidate, or the work with the media. In other words, preparations for
the second round are the same as preparations for the first, but mistakes
made on the voting day must be corrected.
1. Learning from mistakes and preventing them.
1.1 Analysis of the first round results in individual regions, districts,
cities and polling stations.
LARIN S.N.
1.2 Analysis of voter turnout in order to determine the resource of the
votes in support of the Candidate and elaboration of a specific plan of
increasing voter turnout, especially in the eastern and central regions,
which must include:
- Ensuring stringent control over the compilation of electoral rolls,
including if necessary administrative elections [as received];
- removing "dead souls" from electoral rolls;
- comparing information about voting in the first round in the western
regions of Ukraine with real data on migration and speedy publication of
the results in the media;
- control over the procedure of voting using travelling ballot boxes;
- personal letters of invitation from the candidate to the voters;
TOLSTOUKHOV A.V.; LARIN S.N.
1.3 Conducting an analysis and dropping inefficient electoral techniques.
LEVENETS Y.A.
1.4 Disciplinary measures:
- organizational measures [euphemism for staffing decisions] based on the
results of the work of the heads of regional, city and district
administrations;
- replacing poorly performing heads of the headquarters of all levels and
electoral agents of the Candidate;
- raising the responsibility of heads of parliamentary factions for the work
of people's deputies in the regions.
KLYUYEV A.P.; TYHYPKO S.L.; BOHATYRYOVA R.V.
1.5 Disputing election results at individual polling stations in courts.
HAVRYSH S.B.
1.6 Developing effective counterpropaganda actions.
LEVENETS A.A.
1.7 Developing measures to raise turnout in the east and south and to
reduce it in western and central Ukraine using PR techniques.
LEVENETS Y.A.; LARIN S.N.
1.8 Develop a mechanism of blocking ballot-box stuffing for use by
observers at the polling stations.
LARIN S.N.
1.9. Conduct an exit poll on the day of the second round.
TYHYPKO S.L.
1.10 Use measures of material and moral stimulus of the work of
electoral headquarters, election agents, people's deputies.
KLYUYEV A.P.;TYHYPKO S.L.
1.11 Stepping up the work with low-level staff of headquarters at
ministries and government agencies.
TOLSTOUKHOV A.V.
1.12 More active use of FM stations and wire radio
PRUTNIK E.A.
1.13 The coordination committee of the coalition of democratic forces in
support of V.Yanukovych to develop specific measures on mobilizing regional
party structures and every party member to vote and attract new supporters.
PUSTOVOYTENKO V.P.
The above elements of the inertial scenario are necessary.
At the same time, maintaining the overall style of the campaign and methods
of work with the media "as before the first round" (preventing Yushchenko
and his team from appearing on air, the Prime Minister is mainly busy with
his usual work, elements of aggressive PR on national TV channels, etc.) are
unlikely to lead to success.
This is why these elements of the inertial scenario should be reviewed.
Yanukovych's image should also be reviewed.
SECOND - CONFRONTATIONAL [SCENARIO]
This scenario includes escalation of confrontation on all the main lines:
western Ukraine - east and south, the West (USA and Europa) - Russia,
Russian language, the rising threat of extremism, etc.
1. Preparing and circulating leaflets and materials about the true face of
Yushchenko and his entourage - Poroshenko, Tymoshenko, Chervonenko,
Zinchenko, Chervoniy, Pynzenyk, Tyahnybok and other notorious figures in
all print and electronic media.
LEVENETS Y.A.; YAKOVENKO A.N.
2. Documentary support of the Candidate's initiatives on the issues of the
Russian language, creation of a Ukrainian-Russian work group on
implementing the idea of dual citizenship.
TOLSTOUKHOV A.V.; BOHATYRYOVA R.V.
3. Initiating a visit to Ukraine by Russian Prime Minister Fradkov M.B. (or
the rector of the Moscow Lomonosov State University SADOVNICHIY
V.A.) TOLSTOUKHOV A.V.
4. Organizing a public movement in southeastern regions of the country
against the coming to power of Yushchenko and his entourage as a
reactionary, pro-American and radical candidate.
TYHYPKO S.L.;POHREBYNSKYY M.B.
5. Preparing a plan for the celebration of the Great October Socialist
Revolution [7 November]
PRUTNIK E.A.; LEVENETS Y.A.; GRANOVSKIY V.N.
SERYY A.D.
6. Prepare a government statement (or a statement by the law-enforcement
ministries) about decisive measures to prevent possible anti-social
manifestations or mass disturbances during the second round of the election
campaign.
KLYUYEV A.P.
Pluses:
A strong mobilizing effect for our supporters, clarity of position that will
make the choice easier for the undecided and for those who did not take
part in the first round. By showing the opposition's aggression it is
possible to
attract some of the Yushchenko electorate in central Ukraine.
Minuses:
Additional mobilization of the rival's electorate, high level of risks: the
boundary between imitation and real casualties becomes blurred, threat of
clashes (for which the government will bear the brunt of responsibility),
the danger of the disruption of the elections... [ellipsis as published]
Additional problems for implementing this scenario: the position of the
overwhelming majority of TV channels, the position of the President,
weakened administrative resource.
It is not possible to abandon this scenario completely - at least because it
will be necessary to react somehow to the actions of "hotheads" in the
opposition.
But the minuses should be clarified. This means:
- a complete ban on uncoordinated actions by "hotheads" in our team;
- measured use of methods of escalation of confrontation on national TV
channels;
- transferring tough methods of canvassing and counterpropaganda to
regional TV channels, etc.
- continuing to demonstrate aggressiveness only by the opposition,
especially for the central regions.
Key messages of election agents and campaigners:
- counterpropaganda materials about Yushchenko and his entourage;
- comparison: what Yanukovych offers and what Yushchenko offers;
- reasons why the Yushchenko camp is refusing to conduct political and
constitutional reform;
- violations of the law on the election day by Yushchenko supporters.
Third scenario: "Yanukovych - the president of the whole country"
Key element: Yanukovych victory does not put those who did not vote for
him in any danger - removing the syndrome of threat of repression,
"Donetsk authoritarianism", "Belarusization", business expansion and even
simple foisting of the "way of life".
Different targets of this scenario:
For the political elite the most persuasive argument to remove the syndrome
of "Donetsk threat" is conducting the political reform or guarantees of
conducting it immediately after victory? Strong message: Kuchma and
Yanukovych come to parliament. Yanukovych speaks and briefly spells out
his arguments in favour of the need to vote for the reform.
For regional elite - budget reform: reform of local self-government, reform
of the utility and housing sector.
For business elite - creating necessary conditions for the development of
small and medium business, guarantees that there will be no redistribution
of property in favour of Donetsk business representatives.
For people - softening the image (up until now the Yanukovych campaign
has probably been too serious and tense...). What is needed: a trip to visit
mother-in-law in the village: an interview in informal settings
demonstrating that Yanukovych is not going to foist his own ideas of the
way of life on everybody... [ellipsis as published]
"Presents" must be made to the intelligentsia (such as raising pensions to
those who worked in the sphere of culture and science). It is freedom of
speech... [ellipsis as published] - we need to think what to implement and
how during the two weeks before the elections, not just promise.
In connection with this there are following suggestions:
1. To determine the most topical issues for the Cabinet of Ministers agenda.
TOLSTOUKHOV A.V.; PRUTNIK E.A.
2. To plan the regional trips of the Presidential Candidate taking into
account the aforementioned considerations.
TOLSTOUKHOV A.V.
3. Develop specific proposals on supporting small and medium business.
KUZHEL A.V.
4. Introduce proposals to parliament on banning the sale of land and
defining the price of land plots.
BOHATYRYOVA R.V.
5. Hold a meeting with the leaders of the action "New cooperation"
(possible participation in its congress on 12 November 2004)
6. Meet representatives of religious confessions of Ukraine (or the head
of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church Lyubomyr Huzar).
TABACHNYK D.V.
7. Develop the project "TV debates with the country".
PRUTNIK E.A.; LEVENETS Y.A.
8. Prepare materials for an article in the newspaper Silski Visti [linked to
the Socialist Party].
PRUTNIK E.A.; LEVENETS Y.A.
9. Hold a meeting between the Candidate and city mayors.
TOLSTOUKHOV A.V.; TIKHONOV V.M.
9 [Numbers mixed up as in the original]. Sign a joint statement with the
leaders of the left parties on conducting political reform and implementing
social projects.
LEVENETS Y.A.
10. Send a letter from the Candidate to the plenum of the Communist
Party central committee.
POHREBYNSKYY M.B.
12. Conduct a big consolidating rally in support of the Candidate in
Simferopol [Crimea].
SERYY A.D.
13. Meeting with the representatives of the leadership of student
organizations "Pora", "Student choice" and others.
TYHYPKO S.L.
14. Meeting with the TV journalists who signed the protest statement.
TYHYPKO S.L.
15. Meeting with representatives of Ukrainian intelligentsia.
TABACHUK D.V.; KURAS I.F.
Key messages for election agents and campaigners:
- unity of Ukraine (ruling out religious, ethnic, language confrontation);
- the Yanukovych team are effective state managers;
- ensuring peace and stability in the country;
- supporting freedom of will, freedom of speech and personal opinions;
- creating additional jobs, especially in western regions, attracting
investment to develop the tourism industry. -30-
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