"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
RUSSIAN EMPIRE BEING RESTORED
"From the edges of a new Europe to the Caucasus to Central Asia, Mr.
Putin is wielding Russia's considerable resources - and his personal clout
- to keep those countries in what Russians call the "near abroad" under
the sway, if not outright domination, of the Kremlin." [article one]
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 217
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C.; SUNDAY, November 14, 2004
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1.PUTIN USES SOFT POWER TO RESTORE THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE
By Steven Lee Myers, Moscow
The New York Times, New York, Sunday, Nov 14, 2004
2. EX-SOVIET DISSIDENTS LAMENT RUSSIA'S STATE
Russia is in danger of slipping back into a police state
Associated Press, New York, NY, Saturday, Nov 13, 2004
3. PUTIN VISITS UKRAINE AGAIN BEFORE CRUCIAL ELECTION
By Bill Basperini, Voice of America (VOA) Moscow, Sun, Nov. 14, 2004
4. "UKRAINE'S CHOICE"
EDITORIAL, The Washington Post
Washington, D.C., Sunday, November 14, 2004; Page B06
5. UKRAINIAN PRIME MINISTER YANUKOVYCH LAUDS TIES
WITH RUSSIA SINCE TUZLA ISLAND CONFLICT
UT1 State TV, Kiev, Ukraine, in Ukrainian, 12 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Fri, Nov 12, 2004
6. UKRAINE: BUILDING THE MUSCLE TO BE A TECH PLAYER
We want Ukraine to become a technological country again, not just
a country with agriculture and tank production," says Yuri Sivitsky,
chairman of Softline, one of Ukraine's largest software producers.
By Jason Bush, BusinessWeekOnLine
New York, New York, Monday, November 8, 2004
7. WORLD BANK ADVISES NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE
TO SOFTEN CONTROL OVER HRYVNIA RATE
IntelliNews - Ukraine Today
ISI - Intellinews, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, November 12, 2004
8. WORLD BANK FORCASTS 10% INFLATION RATE FOR 2004
Did not exclude 12% inflation this year in Ukraine
IntelliNews - Ukraine Today, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, November 12, 2004
9. UKRAINE INDUSTRIALISTS BACK YANUKOVYCH
By Martin Sieff, UPI Senior News Analyst, Kyiv, Ukraine, Nov. 12, 2004
10. THE STRANGE TALE OF UKRAINIAN STEM CELL EXPERTS,
AMERICAN INVESTORS AND CARIBBEAN TOURISM
By Clive Cookson and Jill James in London
Financial Times, London, UK, Wed, November 10 2004
11. ANALYSIS: "UKRAINE'S OWN PATH"
By Peter Lavelle, United Press International (UPI)
Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, October 27, 2004
12. COMMENTARY: "RUSSIA AND UKRAINE'S FUTURE"
By Peter Lavelle, United Press International (UPI)
Moscow, Russia, Saturday, October 30, 2004
13. ANALYSIS: "UKRAINE'S SPLIT DECISION"
By Peter Lavelle, United Press International (UPI)
Moscow, Russia, Monday, November 01, 2004
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 217: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
========================================================
1. PUTIN USES SOFT POWER TO RESTORE THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE
By Steven Lee Myers, Moscow
The New York Times, New York, Sunday, Nov 14, 2004
MOSCOW - PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN is not subtle. As the
presidential campaign climaxed late last month in Ukraine, a country once
dominated by Russia's czars and commissars but now free to choose its
own way, Mr. Putin went to Kiev for three days of politicking on behalf
of the candidate who promised to strengthen bonds with Moscow.
That candidate came in a close second to one advocating closer ties to
Europe - another way of calling for greater independence from its big
neighbor. On Friday, barely a week ahead of the runoff, Mr. Putin was
in Ukraine again.
In the language of international diplomacy this is known as interfering in
another country's internal affairs. For Mr. Putin, however, it is an
increasingly typical feature of what might be called Russia's soft
imperialism.
>From the edges of a new Europe to the Caucasus to Central Asia, Mr.
Putin is wielding Russia's considerable resources - and his personal clout
- to keep those countries in what Russians call the "near abroad" under
the sway, if not outright domination, of the Kremlin.
He has used Russia's economic levers - above all, its oil and gas, often
sold at discounts - to bind its neighbors into an ever tighter dependency.
He has countered the American military buildup in Central Asia that
followed the Sept. 11 attacks with a buildup of Russian forces in Tajikistan
and Kyrgyzstan.
In Moldova and Georgia, Russia has openly abetted separatist regions by
refusing to keep its commitments to withdraw its troops. In Abkhazia and
South Ossetia in Georgia, it has also granted Russian citizenship to
thousands who, technically, are citizens of other countries, an act that
makes them candidates for the special attention of Kremlin diplomacy.
Mr. Putin is not rebuilding the Soviet Union. But he is trying to forge an
economic, social and military facsimile, with Moscow again at the core, in
all but three of its former republics. The notable exceptions are the Baltic
nations, which irrevocably severed the old chains and now belong to
NATO and the European Union. Elsewhere, despite new national identities
that took root after the Soviet collapse, he appears to be succeeding.
"Russia is on its way to recover the degree of soft power the U.S.S.R.
once enjoyed in its immediate sphere of influence," Fiona Hill, an expert
with the Brookings Institution, wrote in a recent study for the Foreign
Policy
Center in London, referring to the economic power and cultural influence
that once accompanied the far harder power of the troops and security
apparatus that controlled the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.
It is no surprise that Mr. Putin, like any leader, would consider it his
right to protect what he sees as the country's interests in its extensive
backyard, especially now that the United States, the European Union, China
and others are actively pursuing their own business and strategic interests
there. But some of his policies and pronouncements have revived fears of
Russia's long shadow.
In Poland, a former Soviet satellite, a scandal has erupted over allegations
of bribery and espionage involving a Russian agent and the country's largest
oil company. "We are facing a restoration of the Russian empire through
economic means," Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, the former chief of intelligence,
told a parliamentary inquiry last month.
Indeed, the rebound of Russia's economy after the financial crisis of 1998
has given Mr. Putin new leverage with which to counter the economic and
political incentives the West is offering Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia,
Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia to lure them out of Moscow's
embrace.
Russia has the advantage of proximity and old ties, as well as linguistic
bonds, because Russian remains the language of commerce and diplomacy
throughout the region. Even more important, it has oil and gas. With demand
spiking, even the United States is scrambling with China and Japan for
access to Russia's wells.
As Stephen O'Sullivan, the head of research at the United Financial Group in
Moscow, put it, "Oil and gas is what makes Russia important to a lot of the
world." Mr. Putin, who not long ago called the Soviet collapse a "national
tragedy," is clearly eager to reclaim for Russia some of its status as a
superpower. And there is more to it than economics. The perceived losses
of the Baltics and, more recently, of Georgia have been treated in Russia as
a blow to national prestige.
That is what has made the outcome of Ukraine's election so evidently vital
to Mr. Putin. Despite gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine retains deep
ties to Russia because it spent centuries under Moscow's rule. Many
Ukrainians are ethnic Russians. Kiev, Ukraine's capital, was the birthplace
of the Russian state and Russian Orthodox Church.
Now, President Leonid D. Kuchma's decision to step down after 10 years
has opened up a fiercely contested fight over the country's future. Mr.
Kuchma himself zigzagged between Russia and the West, but he has thrown
his support to Prime Minister Viktor F. Yanukovich, who has made it clear
he feels the country's interests lie to the east. And that makes Mr.
Yanukovich the candidate favored by Mr. Putin over Viktor A. Yushchenko,
who wants to balance trade with Russia with expanded ties to Ukraine's
European neighbors.
"This election is not about Yushchenko or Yanukovich or even Ukraine,"
Hryhoriy M. Nemyria, director of the European Center for International
Studies in Kiev, said in an interview after the first round of voting. "It's
about Russia."
He said a victory for Mr. Yushchenko in the runoff would amount to a public
humiliation of Mr. Putin, at home and abroad. "The perception would be that
Ukraine escaped, like Georgia," he said. "It would be like the escape of a
little sister from the family."
And that is almost certainly why Mr. Putin arrived again on Friday on what
the Kremlin called a routine visit, promoting closer relations and
announcing new ferry and rail links. -30-
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
=======================================================
2. EX-SOVIET DISSIDENTS LAMENT RUSSIA'S STATE
Russia is in danger of slipping back into a police state
Associated Press, New York, NY, Saturday, Nov 13, 2004
NEW YORK - More than 50 former Soviet dissidents who spent years
in prisons and Siberian exile say Russia is in danger of slipping back into
a police state under President Vladimir Putin and the former KGB
colleagues he has brought to power.
Graying and aging, the former political prisoners reminisced one night this
week about how they challenged the totalitarian superpower to abide by
laws that on paper guaranteed free speech, a free press and fair trials.
Today Russians are turning to Putin, a former KGB colonel, to restore
order in their chaotic, market-driven democracy, said Eduard Kuznetsov,
65, who spent 17 years in prison for planning to hijack a plane in Leningrad
in 1970 to get out of the Soviet Union.
"More than 50 percent of the key state positions are occupied by former
KGB officials," Kuznetsov said. "The KGB officials have a specific
mentality.
They can't change. There is a danger that it will really be a police state.
Not so straightforward as it was under Brezhnev, because there is inertia.
"Because they have to balance between the (opinion of) the free world and
a controlled society." Leonid Brezhnev ruled from 1964-82, now labeled
the era of stagnation.
Vladimir Bukovsky, who was labeled insane and spent a total of 12 years
in Soviet jails and psychiatric hospitals for repeatedly demonstrating, said
Russia is "slowly returning to the pre-1991 situation" before the end of the
Soviet Union. "But it will never go back all the way to Brezhnev's time.
History doesn't repeat itself so precisely. But they will make a couple of
generations miserable again. That's what they will do," said Bukovsky, 61.
"You cannot return the Soviet system. It collapsed because it had to
collapse. Not because the CIA undermined it or subverted it. They cannot
understand in their small minds that it was absolutely doomed. Now by
trying to restore it, they are simply bankrupting the country."
Bukovsky, who won his freedom in a swap for Chilean Communist Louis
Corvalan on Dec. 18, 1976, recalled that Putin has lamented the collapse
of the Soviet Union as "a tragedy." He said Putin's colleagues also share
this view. "They do so because they used to be young officers of the KGB
and they still have the feeling that they served the great power and now
they want the great power to be back, and they think by repeating the
Soviet example they once again will bring greatness to Russia," Bukovsky
said.
Putin, who proposed ending the direct election of governors after the Beslan
school hostage crisis in September in which more than 330 people, mainly
children, were killed, has denied that his planned overhaul of the electoral
system signaled a retreat from democracy. Putin earlier drew criticism for
shutting down two independent television stations with national reach
purportedly for financial reasons.
Yuri Orlov, a physicist, now 80, who spent seven years in Soviet prisons
and five in Siberian exile for forming a group to monitor Soviet compliance
with the 1975 Helsinki agreement on human rights, said he fears Russia will
regress but not to what it was. "Russia today is different." The reunion was
held at the headquarters of the nonprofit American Jewish Committee.
Vladimir Kozlovsky, who grew up in the Soviet Union and emigrated to
the West in 1974, said the assembled dissidents were his idols.
"They were a major factor in turning Russia into a semi-free country from a
heavily authoritarian one. My childhood heroes. People I don't cease to
admire. They probably spent a couple of hundred years combined in Soviet
jails. And those were nasty jails. It was no picnic."
Ludmilla Thorne, a veteran of the human rights movement who worked with
Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and Andrei Sakharov, said: "The initial stage of the
Soviet Union's demise is here in this building. "The people you see in this
room are the people who laid the foundation. The first epoch was dissent.
These were a small group 2,000 no more."
She said the dissidents were using words like "glasnost" and "perestroika"
nearly 20 years before former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev made
them the slogan of his push for democratic and free-market reforms. "After
coming to power in March 1985, Gorbachev borrowed the term 'glasnost'
and made it his own." -30- [Action Ukraine Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
========================================================
3. PUTIN VISITS UKRAINE AGAIN BEFORE CRUCIAL ELECTION
By Bill Basperini, Voice of America (VOA) Moscow, Sun, Nov. 14, 2004
MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin has wrapped up a visit to
neighboring Ukraine where he met with Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich
just over a week before the crucial second round of a presidential election.
The Kremlin has made no secret that it favors Mr. Yanukovich in a vote
that has become a kind of tug-of-war between Russia and the West. The
official reason for President Putin's second trip to Ukraine in as many
weeks was to meet President Leonid Kuchma to discuss transport links
between the two countries.
But Mr. Putin also briefly met Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich,
who is running neck-and-neck with opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko
in the decisive second round runoff vote for president in just over a week.
The Russian leader wished Mr. Yanukovich well, although he was more
guarded in his praise than on his previous visit just before the first round
of voting two weeks ago.
Mr. Yushchenko criticized Mr. Putin for that earlier visit, saying it was
clear interference in Ukraine's internal affairs. The Russian leader took
part in a call-in show on television and appeared with Mr. Yanukovich at
a highly-publicized military parade.
Most television channels have given Mr. Yanukovich widespread coverage
while ignoring Mr. Yushchenko, who says he wants to move Ukraine closer
to the West. By contrast, Mr. Yanukovich wants to increase links with
Russia, and has even backed a proposal to make Russian an official second
language.
The Ukrainian election is considered a key test of the former Soviet
republic's commitment to democratic reforms, especially after international
observers said the first round was marred by irregularities. After 10 days
of counting, election officials announced that Mr. Yushchenko came out
slightly ahead in that round, which was contested by more than a dozen
candidates. The run-off will be held because neither of the two leading
contenders reached 50 percent in the first round.
In another move reflecting the political split in the country, both
President Kuchma and Mr. Yanukovich chose to meet Mr. Putin and
skipped a visit by Poland's Foreign Minister to assess the situation prior
to the second round of voting. The Polish minister came to Ukraine's
capital, Kiev, with the watchdog organization known as the Council of
Europe to discuss the second round of voting.
He did meet with Mr. Yushchenko as well as top election officials,
warning them against a repeat of the irregularities that occurred in the
first round.
Ivan Lozowy is a Ukrainian political analyst who says the long delay in
announcing first round results is a sign more problems lie ahead in the
final round. "I think the only chance for improvement in terms of the
central election commission, which is the single key government body
engaged in counting and election results, is mass public pressure," Mr.
Lozowy said.
The United States and other Western countries have warned Ukraine
that there could be consequences if the election is seen as not being fair.
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
4. "UKRAINE'S CHOICE"
EDITORIAL, The Washington Post
Washington, D.C., Sunday, November 14, 2004; Page B06
THAT OPPOSITION leader Viktor Yushchenko would finish first in the
opening round of Ukraine's presidential election was widely expected: The
pro-democracy, pro-Western candidate has led in opinion polls for more
than a year. What surprised -- and electrified -- many of those who
supported him was the acknowledgment of his victory by Ukrainian election
officials on Wednesday, 10 days after voters went to the polls. For months
Ukraine's corrupt and quasi-autocratic government did its thuggish best to
promote the election of the current prime minister, Viktor Yanukovych, by
manipulating state-controlled media and assaulting opposition supporters
and leaders.
Most voters expected the election results to be falsified. That Mr.
Yushchenko's lead was belatedly announced is testimony to the pressure
from millions of Ukrainians who turned out to vote for him, as well as from
Western governments that dispatched thousands of observers and repeatedly
warned against fraud.
Mr. Yushchenko must still prevail in a runoff election a week from today --
a race where state media and other government intervention once again make
him an underdog despite a wide lead in independent polls. Nevertheless,
Ukrainians who hope to steer their country toward liberal democracy have a
chance to triumph in a political contest that may be as important to the
future of Europe as it is to their nation of 50 million people.
Ukraine's choice is about its future political system and geopolitical
alignment. Mr. Yushchenko promises to allow genuine democratic institutions,
such as a free press and fair elections, and to seek membership for Ukraine
in NATO and the European Union. His opponent would consolidate the
corrupt authoritarianism of the current regime and wed it to that of Russian
President Vladimir Putin, who aspires to restore Kremlin dominion over
Ukraine and other former Soviet republics.
The first round of the elections should have sent a message to Mr. Putin,
who blatantly intervened in the campaign by channeling hundreds of millions
of dollars to the official candidate and personally campaigning for him in
the capital, Kiev, just days before the election. Kiev voted heavily for the
opposition, but on Friday Mr. Putin returned again to Ukraine, where he
apparently hopes to control the electoral outcome as he has elections inside
Russia.
The Bush administration, which has recognized that the United States has
"an overriding interest in a democratic Ukraine," has been fecklessly silent
about Mr. Putin's intervention. It has, however, pressured Ukrainian
officials and allied businessmen to allow a fair vote, in part by
threatening to deny them U.S. visas. Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.),
chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations committee and sponsor of U.S.
aid programs for Ukraine, will travel to Kiev with the support of President
Bush to observe the second round. Mr. Lugar and Mr. Bush will not and
should not campaign for Mr. Yushchenko or any other candidate, as Mr.
Putin has done. Their goal need be only that of the vast majority of
Ukrainians: a free choice. -30- [The Action Ukraine Monitoring Service]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48326-2004Nov13.html
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
========================================================
5. UKRAINIAN PRIME MINISTER YANUKOVYCH LAUDS TIES
WITH RUSSIA SINCE TUZLA ISLAND CONFLICT
UT1 State TV, Kiev, Ukraine, in Ukrainian, 12 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Fri, Nov 12, 2004
KIEV - [Presenter] The road towards the Kerch agreements [to build
a direct international rail-ferry link between the ports of Krym in Ukraine
and Kavkaz in Russia, which was signed today] has helped to boost
Ukraine's relations with Russia and other CIS countries, Ukrainian Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych said [during his visit to Luhansk Region
today]. He added that Ukraine is following a road which will bring
substantial benefits to the economies of both countries.
[Yanukovych, in Russian] This time span between Tuzla [island in the
Kerch Strait, the centre of a Ukrainian-Russian conflict last September]
and today that we have lived through has enabled us to tackle many issues
not only with Russia but also with Belarus and other CIS countries with
an understanding that we need to restore those lost links - and I would
say those very precious links to the economy and to our people, to the
people from our countries - to set up hi-tech scientific and industrial
complexes and to jointly produce competitive products. -30-
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
Additional names for the distribution list are always welcome
========================================================
6. UKRAINE: BUILDING THE MUSCLE TO BE A TECH PLAYER
We want Ukraine to become a technological country again, not just
a country with agriculture and tank production," says Yuri Sivitsky,
chairman of Softline, one of Ukraine's largest software producers.
By Jason Bush, BusinessWeekOnLine
New York, New York, November 8, 2004
KIEV - Ukraine has a bunch of cornfields, a bunch of old steel mills, and
not much else. Right? Well, Ukraine also has a budding technology sector,
and -- after the U.S., India, and Russia -- the fourth largest number of
computer programmers in the world. It was a main center of the Soviet
programming industry. The first computer built in continental Europe was
made in Ukraine in 1951. Even today, scientific institutes each year churn
out some 50,000 science or technology graduates.
Not surprisingly, Ukrainians don't see why their country can't become a
big player in the global technology market, like India. "We want Ukraine
to become a technological country again, not just a country with agriculture
and tank production," says Yuri Sivitsky, chairman of Softline, one of
Ukraine's largest software producers.
What are the chances? While Ukraine isn't likely ever to rival India, it
certainly has the potential to become a player. Just look at Softline.
Founded by mathematicians in 1995, it has 500 employees, up from a
dozen in 1998. Revenues are set to hit $10 million this year, up 70%
from 2003. Its clients include Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR ) and Hugo Boss.
The offshore programming industry, although small, is growing fast.
According to Market-Visio, a research firm in Moscow, Ukraine's
software exports will grow 43% this year to $100 million. Around
10,000 programmers are employed in the industry, working for customers
such as Boeing (BA ), DaimlerChrysler (DCX ), General Electric (GE ),
Citibank (C ), and NASA. Much of the work is customized business
software. But gaming is also growing. Kvasar-Micro, Ukraine's largest
info tech company, recently landed an order to develop a computer
game for mobile handsets.
Ukraine's main selling point is the quality of its mathematical education.
Another is cheap labor. An average programmer in Ukraine earns $500
a month, not quite as low as India, but half the level in Moscow and a
fraction of programming salaries in the West. But the edge Ukraine gets
from high education and low wages is offset by other factors. Around
90% of all software on sale in Ukraine is pirated, so domestic makers
can't get the revenue they need to grow. Other problems are a lack of
business skills, venture finance, and government support. But things are
looking up.Management skills are improving as Ukrainians gain Western
experience and earn MBAs. The government is mulling tax incentives for
tech investment and starting to tighten piracy laws.
Some of the biggest names in the global technology industry have started
to wake up to Ukraine's potential. "Ukraine is building up quickly," says
Gerard J. Kleisterlee, CEO of Dutch electronics giant Royal Philips
Electronics (PHG ), which makes an array of high-tech goods there.
Flextronics International Ltd. (FLEX ), a Singapore electronics power-
house, recently set up a software design lab in Ukraine, and CEO Michael
E. Marks is enthusiastic about the nation's potential as an engineering and
design power. If he's right, Ukraine has a digital future. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_45/b3907090_mz054.htm
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
========================================================
7. WORLD BANK ADVISES NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE
TO SOFTEN CONTROL OVER HRYVNIA RATE
IntelliNews - Ukraine Today
ISI - Intellinews, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, November 12, 2004
KYIV - World Bank suggested NBU that softer control of the hryvnia
(UAH) rate is advisable. John Litwack, leading economist of WB,
underlined that more flexibility should be introduced.
Moreover, Litwack noted if NBU pegs the national currency to a foreign
currency, it is advisable to peg it to a number of currencies, and not to a
single one. Earlier, NBU introduced 2% restriction to deviation of hryvnia
buy and sell rates from the official rate on the FX cash market. -30-
=======================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 217: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
Letters to the editor are always welcome
========================================================
8. WORLD BANK FORCASTS 10% INFLATION RATE FOR 2004
Did not exclude 12% inflation this year in Ukraine
IntelliNews - Ukraine Today, Kyiv, Ukraine, Fri, November 12, 2004
KYIV - World Bank forecasts that the consumer inflation rate in Ukraine
could stand at about 10% in 2004. Mark Davis, senior economist of
WB's office in Ukraine, announced this, commenting FinMin Nikolai
Azarov's forecast of a 9.5% inflation rate.
At the same time, Davis does not exclude 12% inflation this year. The
inflation rate in Jan-Oct made up 7.9%. -30-
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTNOTE: An inflation rate of from 10% to 12% is much too high
and will be very destructive to the people of Ukraine. The government
should move immediately to stop the programs it is implementing which
are causing the inflation rate to rocket skyward and start actions to get
inflation under control. [Editor]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
========================================================
9. UKRAINE INDUSTRIALISTS BACK YANUKOVYCH
By Martin Sieff, UPI Senior News Analyst, Kyiv, Ukraine, Nov. 12, 2004
Kiev, Ukraine - Industrial leaders in Ukraine's heavily populated heartland
are backing Viktor Yanukovych in the presidential run-off Nov. 21.
The top managers of major enterprises in eastern and southern Ukraine
have called on their countrymen to support Yanukovych, Ukraine's current
prime minister in the second round of elections against pro-Western
candidate Viktor Yushchenko, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported
Friday.
"We, the heads of major industrial enterprises of eastern and southern
Ukraine, are appealing to you at a time extremely important to our country,"
the managers said in their statement. "On Nov. 21 we will have to choose
between stable development or a return to an economic crisis, the stoppage
of industrial enterprises, mass unemployment, political instability and
chaos," they said.
The situation that has taken shape "is very similar to the situation in the
years of the so-called 'perestroika', when irresponsible politicians dragged
the country into a whirl of demagogy, fueled nationalistic extremism,
provoked an economic collapse and eventually ruined the whole country,"
they said.
On Nov. 12, the directors of major Ukrainian industrial enterprises gathered
in Zaporizhzhnya to announce the establishment of the Southeast Industrial
League to support Yanukovych, Interfax-Ukraine said. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
========================================================
10. THE STRANGE TALE OF UKRAINIAN STEM CELL EXPERTS,
AMERICAN INVESTORS AND CARIBBEAN TOURISM
By Clive Cookson and Jill James in London
Financial Times, London, UK, Wed, November 10 2004
LONDON - Ukrainian stem cell researchers are teaming up with American
investors and the Caribbean tourist trade to set up an Institute of
Regenerative Medicine on Barbados. It will carry out research and offer
therapy using foetal stem cells for $25,000 per patient.
The treatment was developed at the Institute of Cryobiology in Ukraine.
Speaking in London yesterday, Valentin Grishchenko, head of the
Kharkov-based institute, said almost 20 years of clinical experience there
showed that the stem cell therapy was safe and effective.
Of 1,740 patients treated in Ukraine for a wide variety of diseases, from
blood disorders and diabetes to Parkinson's disease and chronic fatigue
syndrome, there were "significant improvements" in 68 per cent, "partial
improvements" in 28 per cent and no improvement in 4 per cent. However,
the patient data from Ukraine are not in the form favoured by western
medical researchers: controlled clinical trials for precisely defined
medical conditions.
The Barbados institute will import stem cell preparations from Ukraine. They
come from aborted foetuses of six to 12 weeks' gestation. The institute says
consent to donate the foetus for stem cell research is made separately from
the abortion decision, to avoid any incentive for abortion, and does not
involve financial remuneration.
Dwight Thompson, acting director of corporate communications for the
Barbados Tourism Authority, said: "The island has long been a destination
for wellness and health because of its wonderful climate. We have a long
tradition of people coming here to get well." But he added: "From a tourism
standpoint we will look at this on its merits. We would probably like to
promote it if it meets all correct and legal requirements. If the government
takes a position that it is too controversial [to promote] then we would
have to consider that."
Scientists elsewhere in the world have some experience with foetal stem
cells, particularly for treating Parkinson's disease and stroke. But most
research in western Europe and north America is directed at stem cells
derived either from early embryos or from adults.
Barnett Suskind, chief executive of the Barbados institute, said it started
providing therapy six weeks ago with the government's approval and had
so far treated three patients. It would be focusing first on people
suffering from auto-immune diseases, diabetes and neurological disorders.
In addition, he said, the institute was discussing a more formal clinical
trial of stem cell therapy for congestive heart therapy in association with
Queen Elizabeth Hospital, the main hospital on the island.
Elizabeth Ferdinand, acting chief medical officer for Barbados, said: "I
have not been aware of the issue - and have no comment to make at this
stage." -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
Your financial support is needed, please send a check.
========================================================
11. ANALYSIS: "UKRAINE'S OWN PATH"
By Peter Lavelle, United Press International (UPI)
Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, October 27, 2004
MOSCOW, Oct. 27 (UPI) -- Ukraine's Oct. 31 presidential election
has been billed as a decisive benchmark determining the country's future.
Most commentary on the election claims Ukrainians have a clear-cut
choice of either joining the West, particularly Europe, or to return to the
Russian fold. Irrespective of whether Viktor Yushchenko or Viktor
Yanukovych is elected, Ukraine's geopolitical and economic future will
be of its own making.
In a campaign fraught with dirty tricks, an alleged poisoning of a
candidate, one-sided media coverage, and foreign money and influence in
no shortage, Ukrainians are to elect new president. With more than 20
candidates running, only two have a chance to succeed outgoing President
Leonid Kuchma. Viktor Yanukovych, Kuchma's handpicked successor and
running on a pro-Russia platform, is in a dead heat with former prime
minister, successful policy reformer, and central bank governor Viktor
Yushchenko - who is widely seen as the candidate of "change" looking to
move Ukraine away from Russia and toward Europe.
Ukraine's election comes on the heels of political changes in Russia and
Belarus. After almost five years in power, Russian President Vladimir Putin
has consolidated control over the media, has a pliant parliament, reigned in
regional governments, and expanded the Kremlin's very visible hand in key
sectors of the economy. In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko has
essentially delivered Belarus' fate to the Kremlin by having himself
appointed president for life..
Ukraine differs from Russia and Belarus in many ways. Ukraine's political
parties are lively and have developed distinct political platforms with the
executive branch and parliament coexisting in an environment that has
meaningful checks and balance on both. While this is considered a
forward-looking democratic virtue, it is in fact a reflection of country's
chronic fragmentation - divided by politics, geopolitical lines (with
eastern regions more pro-Russian and western Ukraine being more
pro-Western).
In Russia, political parties are weak and, for the most part, dependent on
the Kremlin. Belarus' political scene is completely dominated by one man -
Lukashenko.
Ukraine's economy also differs from Russia and Belarus. Putin has forcefully
undercut the economic and political power of Russia's oligarchs. In Belarus,
Lukashenko is the only oligarch of significance. Ukraine's economy remains
tightly controlled by oligarchs. In many ways Ukraine's presidential contest
is about how the economy should develop.
Opposition candidate Yushchenko claims Ukraine should not follow the
political path of its former Soviet neighbors. He supports Ukraine's
eventual membership in the European Union and NATO, playing down the
demands of Ukraine's very large ethnic Russian minority and breaking the
influence of the country's oligarchs.
Yanukovych, the "status quo" candidate, supports greater economic
integration with Russia and the Kremlin's designs to consolidate an economic
bloc that includes other former Soviet republics. Vladimir Putin's current
visit to Ukraine, officially having nothing to do with election, is
interpreted by all as a strong show of support of Kuchma's prot?g? and his
agenda.
Yanukovych also supports making Russian the Ukraine's second official
language and, if elected, ensure that Ukrainians and Russians can freely
cross common borders without visas. He also represents the interests of the
Donetsk oligarch grouping - one of four clans controlling vast swaths of the
economy. (Kuchma's chief of staff, Viktor Medvedchuk represents the Kiev
clan, and Kuchma's son-in-law Viktor Pinchuk heads the Dnipropetrovsk
group).
However, as different as Yushchenko and Yanukovych are, the outcome of this
election most likely will not bring about any immediate or dramatic changes
in the short run. The differing political rhetoric and conflicting visions
for Ukraine's future need to be understood in the context of hard realities
on the ground.
If Yushchenko is elected, he is unlikely to move fast against Ukraine's
oligarchs. Putin assembled a powerful team of supporters among the security
forces and empowered state bureaucrats before he started his assault on
Russia's oligarchs. Ukraine's oligarchs are extremely well entrenched, with
a reach into state structures and politics their Russia peers never
achieved. Yushchenko elected as an outsider, will surely have to tread
carefully. Western institutions and governments will most likely be very
supportive of a Yushchenko presidency. But without significantly freeing the
economy of oligarchic control, that support will not be much more than
goodwill.
Yushchenko is also unlikely to adopt an overt anti-Russia stance along the
lines of Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. Inflamed Russian-Ukrainian
relations are not in the interests of anyone. For all the Western support
Yushchenko has received in this race, few in Europe or the United States
want to contemplate the consequences of a significant Kiev-Moscow falling
out.
Yanukovych's election should not be seen as the tragedy so widely predicted
by Western media and certainly not Ukraine's abject surrender to the
Kremlin. The most important change that will occur in Ukraine is the
retirement of Leonid Kuchma. His formal departure from Ukrainian politics
will be a catalyst to shake up the country's status quo. Yanukovych will
have to address shifting power relations among the oligarch clans, and it
should not be ruled out that he will become his own man in politics - no
different from the political trajectory of Vladimir Putin.
It is also doubtful that Yanukovych aims to deliver Ukraine's fate into the
hand of the Kremlin. Greater economic integration is welcomed, but complete
integration unlikely. Ukraine's oligarchs certainly must be mindful of
Putin's low regard for the super-rich calling all the shots in the economic
and political spheres.
Whoever is elected, the next president will have to deal with Putin's
Kremlin. Russia's interest in this election has been extraordinary. This
should not surprise anyone. With the Russian diaspora comprising 17.3
percent of Ukraine's population, the Kremlin is compelled to be concerned
with the fate of fellow nationals. Russia's Black Sea fleet anchored on the
Crimean coast is an important foreign policy and military issue for the
Kremlin. Inter-country trade and capital flows are important for both
countries.
This election has mistakenly been characterized as Ukraine's decision to
look east or to the west. This election is actually about how Ukraine
desires to further develop its domestic order - politically and
economically - to address both east and west. Ukraine is following its own
path - a path that will not fully please the east, west and certainly many
Ukrainians for a long to come. -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Untimely Thoughts; http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/?art=999
Vol 2 no 141 (188) Post- Ukraine
Oct 27, 2004; By Peter Lavelle, plavelle@untimely-thoughts.com
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
Your financial support is needed, please send a check.
========================================================
12. COMMENTARY: "RUSSIA AND UKRAINE'S FUTURE"
By Peter Lavelle, United Press International (UPI)
Moscow, Russia, Saturday, October 30, 2004
MOSCOW ---------- United Press International analyst Peter Lavelle
engages experts Donald Jensen, Andrew C. Kuchins, Gordon Hahn,
Vlad Sobell, Nicolai N. Petro, Janusz Bugajski and Ira Straus regarding
Russia's role in Ukraine's presidential election slated for Oct. 31, and the
impact on Russia's relations with the West. The following are excerpts.
UPI: Sunday's presidential election in Ukraine has received a great amount
of international coverage, with Russia basically painted as returning to its
nasty habit of bullying its neighbors. Most Western media have described the
presidential contest as a simple choice of the Ukraine shaking off the
Russian yoke or embracing a bright and radiant future with the West,
particularly the European Union. Has this been overplayed? What are Russia's
legitimate concerns when it comes to Ukraine's future? To what degree does
Russia have the right to be interested in the fate of Ukraine's very large
Russian population there? If Viktor Yushchenko, the "reformist and
pro-Western candidate," is elected how much support can he expect from the
United States and Europe to re-orient Ukraine's domestic political and
economic order? What problems could he expect from the Kremlin? On the
other hand, if "pro-Russia" candidate Viktor Yanukovych is elected, how
would Ukrainian-Russian relations evolve? Lastly, irrespective of which
Viktor gets the nod on Sunday, isn't Ukraine's fate inevitably in the hands
of all Ukrainian citizens?
Donald Jensen, director of communications at Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty
The Western media has oversimplified the choice confronting voters. The
election is fundamentally about defining Ukraine's identity as an
independent nation. A vote for either candidate is unlikely to decisively
push Ukraine in either directions, but it may help bring clarity.
Russia has genuine interests in a stable, prosperous, friendly and
democratic Ukraine. Close political and economic relations, encouraged by
strong ethnic and linguistic ties, are inevitable. Unfortunately, Putin's
recent meddling contributes to neither stability, prosperity nor democratic
development. It is regrettably part of a broader Kremlin strategy to create
an informal bloc of authoritarian and semi-authoritarian states -- including
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine -- dominated by Moscow,... a
key player in the Eurasian space.
If Yushchenko wins, he would certainly receive support from the West,
including financial assistance and prospects of joining NATO. However, he
has little support among ethnic Russians. The Kremlin is likely to try to
undermine his authority in the same kind of passive-assertive way it is
dealing with the new government of Georgia.
If Yanukovych wins, we should expect closer ties with Moscow. NATO
membership would be a dead issue, at least for now. Yanukovych would
emphasize economic relations with Russia and other CIS members at the
expense of economic integration with the West. Most regrettably, Yanukovych
might seek to stifle the kind of wide open debate that has marked Ukrainian
politics this year and which has been a refreshing contrast what is going on
(or not!) in Russia.
Despite the Kremlin's interference, Ukraine's fate ultimately is in the
hands of Ukraine's voters. They must answer the question of what it means
to be Ukrainian.
Andrew C. Kuchins, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center
It is natural that Russia has important interests in the results of the
Ukrainian presidential election, but Russian intervention to support
Yanukovych has been so heavy handed that their strategy may actually
backfire as it looks to have done in Abkhazia earlier this month. I have to
believe that a lot of Ukrainians are very turned off by Russian efforts to
sway support for Yanukovych. It really looks absurd that President Putin is
visiting Ukraine for three days before the elections, let alone the legions
of Russian "political consultants" and the alleged $300 million in campaign
funds from Russia for Yanukovych. Professor Michael McFaul made a good
point in the Moscow Times when he compared this to imagining the U.S.
President going to Mexico to stump for the favored candidate just before the
election. Not only would there be an international outrage, but it probably
would hurt rather than help the candidate's chances. Yet with Ukraine and
Russia, the international community seems to accept this kind of behavior
as OK. Talk about double standards!
That Moscow is investing (literally and figuratively) so much in supporting
Yanukovych means that if Yushchenko manages to win, Russia will lose much
more face. If Yanukovych wins, and if the elections are not deemed free and
fair, then Russia's ties with Europe and the United States will be further
damaged. This will especially be the case in the event of falsification of
ballots coming from Ukrainians voting on Russian territory. The odd thing
about the extraordinary efforts of Russia on behalf of Yanukovych is that it
is hardly the case that Yushchenko is anti-Russian. Yes, he will probably
look to establish stronger ties with NATO and the EU, but his record as
prime minister is certainly one that was good for Russian business
interests. That Russia would view a Yushchenko victory as so antithetical to
their interests, as the evidence now suggests, frankly does not bode well
for the future of Russian-EU and U.S.-Russian relations.
Gordon Hahn, scholar at large and author of "Russia's Revolution for Above:
Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist
Regime, 1985-2000"
Russia will endeavor to have its way in the region as long as international
relations remain more "anarchic" than institutionalized. Ukraine inevitably
became the object of geopolitical machinations for Russia, the United
States, and Europe, once NATO and the EU decided to expand. Russia's
elite increasingly distrusted the West and propagated distrust of the West
in the media..
The Western view -- that Russia was acting illegitimately in seeking to
influence Ukraine, and that when the West did so it was simply to expand
democracy -- further alienated Russians. The West did not show the
magnanimity in its Cold War victory for which Richard Pipes once called.
Western warnings about Russia's innate neo-imperialism became
self-fulfilling prophecy foretold by those who demanded and made the policy
to expand NATO. With Ukraine potentially in NATO and the EU, Russia felt
both jilted and more isolated.
Russia had and has legitimate interests in Ukraine: economic (defense
industry, gas transport), political (Russian diaspora), and security (Black
Sea fleet). Russia has a right to demand equal rights for Russians in
Ukraine and a need to do so because they are closely tied to the sense of
lost empire and power "after the fall." However, Russian interests will be
seen in the West as increasingly illegitimate, the more authoritarian it
becomes internally, or if it pursues legitimate interests to achieve less
legitimate ends.
If Yushchenko wins, he will play the middle to win concessions from both
sides. If the more pro-Russian Yanukovych wins, the status quo prevails
with perhaps some tilting west. Russia's administrative resources are no
longer needed after the election.
Vlad Sobell, senior economist, Daiwa Institute of Research, England
The mainstream analyses paint the Ukrainian elections as a fateful choice
between the "East" and "West." They see a plucky, freedom-loving Ukraine
being devoured by the Kremlin's neo-imperialists, plotting to pull Ukraine
back into darkness. This narrative also has the valiant Western efforts to
"save Ukraine" being unfairly beaten back by the Kremlin's fifth column --
the Kuchma regime and Ukraine's ethnic Russians.
Since I do not accept that Putin's regime is restoring an empire, I also
reject this feverish interpretation. Moreover, this fairy tale is not merely
misleading, it is dangerous, with its peddlers being guilty of recklessness.
It is dangerous because by creating an artificial specter of a new East-West
conflict, we could lose sight of the real threat to our civilization --
chaos, instability and terrorism, which feeds on it. We have seen the
results in Chechnya and elsewhere.
Emerging from its totalitarian wreckage, Russia in 1991 embarked on a
difficult path to indigenous democracy, while placing relations with its
former empire on a modern footing. However, the "democratic" West has
rewarded it with virulent Russophobia, diligently beating the "authoritarian
Kremlin" on the head and presenting it, just to be on the "safe side," with
a rapidly expanded NATO. Subsequently, the United States and United
Kingdom have chosen to host individuals who Moscow regards as envoys
of Chechen terrorism.
We should, therefore, not be surprised when Putin -- who has amply
demonstrated his ability to play a weak hand well -- is attempting to keep
Ukraine on his side of the divide we have created. This is not
neo-imperialism, it is realpolitik, which, like any other power, Russia is
fully entitled to pursue.
The West should stop censuring Russia and fully engage with Moscow in
bolstering the international system. It can start by working together with
Russia in stabilizing the nascent Ukrainian democracy.
Nicolai N. Petro, professor of political science at the University of Rhode
Island and author of "Crafting Democracy: How Novgorod Has Coped
with Rapid Social Change"
The presidential elections of 2004 will mark a watershed in Ukrainian
politics. For the first time two centrist candidates are likely to emerge as
the front-runners. Antagonism to Moscow, once the litmus test of Ukrainian
politics, has been superceded by mundane, domestic concerns.
Over the past decade, the country has established a foreign policy agenda
close to -- but still distinct from -- Russia's. The hot button issues of
the late 1990s -- Crimea, the Black Sea fleet and energy dependence on
Russia have faded. The Ukrainian elite no longer lives in fear that the
eastern and western halves of the country may never understand each other,
and now believes that they share a common fate. As the home-grown political
elite has become more self-confident, the opportunities for dialogue in the
center of the political spectrum have expanded. The best example is the
similarity between the political agendas of Yanukovych and Yushchenko, both
of whom have served as prime ministers under departing President Leonid
Kuchma.
Another telling indication that we have entered a new era in Ukrainian
politics is the surprisingly mild response to Putin's visit to Ukraine on
the very eve of the election. The nature of the event in which he took part,
the 60th anniversary of Kyiv liberation from the Nazis, evoked nostalgic
memories of the U.S.S.R. among many older voters, but Putin carefully
shifted the thrust of that nostalgia from the past to the present by
highlighting the cultural and personal ties that still mean a great deal to
most Ukrainians.
His stance stands in stark contrast to efforts by Sen. John McCain, Henry
Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski to cast this election as an ideological
confrontation -- either Russia or the West, the past versus the future.
Fortunately, Ukrainians have moved well beyond such views, even if some
Western politicians have not.
Janusz Bugajski, director of the East Europe Project at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington
I would not characterize Russia's traditional approach toward Ukraine as
mere "bullying." Russian policy, whether Czarist, Communist, or Putinist, is
intent on dominating its Slavic neighbor. Dominance no longer involves
forced famines, mass executions, denationalization or Russian colonization,
but focuses on controlling the foreign and security destinies of the
subordinate "younger brother." In this context, the presidential contest in
Ukraine is primarily a question of foreign policy direction. In other words,
will Kyiv subordinate itself to Moscow willingly, which is likely under
Yanukovych, or will it demand greater flexibility in its decision-making, as
is likely under Yushchenko. The EU's minimalist policy toward Kyiv does
not inspire confidence. However, a Yushchenko victory could wake up some
of the bureaucrats in Brussels. Clearly, Ukraine has a long way to go to
become a EU candidate, as did Romania and Bulgaria, but if it ties its fate
economically and politically with Russia than that road will be closed.
All states have legitimate interests in their neighborhood and logically the
Russian population in Ukraine needs to be assured the same rights as the
Ukrainian population in Russia. However, the Russian diaspora and
Russian-speakers in Ukraine (the result of generations of Russification) is
politically manipulated by Moscow to steer Kyiv eastward. Moreover, the
Kremlin through its various organs and outlets is participating in the
Ukrainian elections as a partisan player and expects a Yanukovych
presidency to cement a new Russia-Ukraine union.
If Yushchenko is elected despite all this interference and possible election
fraud, then Moscow will retool its methods to cajole the new president into
the Russian orbit. If this fails because of a more attractive Western
approach, then the Kremlin will have two main options -- political
annihilation or Moldovization. It will either attempt to undermine
Yushchenko through economic pressures and political scandal, or it will
maneuver to partition the Ukrainian state.
Ira Straus, U.S. coordinator of the Committee on Eastern Europe and
Russia on NATO
America and Russia both interfere in elections, America on a global scale
and often ignorantly. Russia has put lots of money into Ukraine's election.
The Washington Post cites this as brazen "imperialist" meddling, not
mentioning that the United States is also spending millions there, the
Russian money is mostly for writing off Ukrainian debt, and the United
States had the International Monetary Fund give Russia a much bigger loan
in 1996 to help Yeltsin win re-election against Communist candidate Gennady
Zyuganov. The Post, with its current ideology of "telling the truth" (i.e.
saying the worst thing imaginable) about Russia, ends up making itself the
liar.
In 1996, the United States had a legitimate interest in preventing a
communist leader from regaining executive power in Russia. Today, Russia has
a legitimate interest in victory for the Ukrainian more prone to cooperation
with Russia on several major issues (also on not perpetuating discrimination
against the Russian language that is primary for half of Ukrainians).
Everyone's meddling is legitimate. We're all interdependent. All electorates
should hear more about what other countries think of their potential
leaders.
What's harmful is that U.S. and Russian meddling are directed against each
other. It would be better for the United States to be pushing Yushchenko to
be more pro-Russian on several major specific issues, so the pro-Russian
majority of Ukrainians would no longer have reason to be nervous about him.
It would be better for Russia to be pressing Yanukovych to run a cleaner
campaign. And for both sides to stop counterposing the Russian and Western
orientations in practice as well as to press "their" men to shunt aside
their extremist supporters. Lastly, it would be better to maintain
communications with the other candidate and to stop talking demagogically
against one another's involvement. -30-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untimely Thoughts: http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/?art=1008
Vol 2 no 142 (189) Experts - Ukraine
Oct 29, 2004; By Peter Lavelle, plavelle@untimely-thoughts.com
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.217: ARTICLE NUMBER THIRTEEN
Your financial support is needed, please send a check.
========================================================
13. ANALYSIS: "UKRAINE'S SPLIT DECISION"
ANALYSIS: by Peter Lavelle, United Press International (UPI)
Moscow, Russia, Monday, November 01, 2004
MOSCOW, Nov. 1 (UPI) -- Ukraine is heading for a runoff presidential race
after counting in Sunday's election produced no clear winner. Prime Minister
Viktor Yanukovych, favored by outgoing President Leonid Kuchma and the
Kremlin, will face former premier and pro-Western candidate Viktor
Yushchenko in the Nov. 21 election, which judging by the campaign so far is
likely to be nasty.
The Central Electoral Committee said with 92 percent of votes counted,
Yanukovych leads with 40.39 percent of the vote, followed by Yushchenko
with 38.9 percent. With neither candidate getting the necessary 50 percent,
Ukrainians will return to the polls in three weeks.
As both men prepare for round two, their camps are claiming voter fraud,
manipulation and "phantom" voters in Sunday's first round. Foreign observers
from NATO and the European Union described the vote as not meeting European
standards. Observers from former Soviet republics gave it a passing grade.
This had been long expected. For months, the campaign was fraught with dirty
tricks, the alleged poisoning of Yushchenko, pro-Yanukovych media coverage,
and foreign money and influence. The stakes are high because the outcome
could influence Ukraine's geopolitical and economic future.
Yanukovych is the status quo candidate and is running on a platform of
closer relations and economic integration with Russia. He also supports dual
citizenship with Russia and making Russian the second official language.
Significantly, he represents the interests of Ukraine's small group of
oligarchs, who control large portions of the country's economy and possess
considerable political influence.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kiev days before the election and
all but endorsed Yanukovych. Kremlin spin-doctors with a $300 million cash
pile are alleged to be involved in Yanukovych's campaign.
Yushchenko claims Ukraine should not follow the path of its former Soviet
neighbors: namely Belarus, Russia, Moldova, and the former Soviet Central
Asian republics. He supports Ukraine's eventual membership into the European
Union and NATO, underplaying the demands of the country's large ethnic
Russian minority, and breaking the influence of the oligarchs.
During Kuchma's rule, Western institutions were critical of the government's
heavy-handed approach toward independent media and its human rights
policies.
Yushchenko also has outside support. Western leaders such as Sen. John
McCain, R-Ariz., former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and former
national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski support him, casting this
election as an ideological confrontation between Russia and the West; the
failed past against the radiant future. It should be noted, however, that
Yushchenko has not presented himself as the "anti-Russia" candidate -- only
foreign observers and commentators have come to this conclusion.
Yanukovych has the clear advantage going into the second round. The state's
administrative resources support his candidacy. With a bulging war chest and
experienced foreign political strategists lending a hand, it is his race to
lose.
Expected election irregularities are a given for both camps. Yanukovych's
mission now is to ensure his victory is not achieved on the back of vote
rigging and fraud. This will not be easy. The world will watch the second
round closely.
Yushchenko's strongest card is domestic and international indignation if the
Yanukovych camp is seen stealing the election. A stolen election would lead
to intense political instability. Yushchenko's supporters are preparing for
the eventuality and have devised a plan to contest the results.
The plan, named the "Chestnut Revolution" for the chestnut trees that line
Kiev's central Khreschatyk Street, will attempt to re-enact the popular
revolution that toppled Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic and Georgia's Eduard
Shevardnadze. Some of those involved in ousting Milosevic and Shevardnadze
are already in Ukraine, and authorities have deported some.
For the next three weeks, more dirty tricks, outside influence and
"creative" electioneering are expected. Irrespective of which Viktor is
finally elected president Nov. 21, neither candidate can expect to easily
heal the divisions this election has made so glaringly obvious. -30-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untimely Thoughts; http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/?art=1018
Vol 2 no 143 (190) Ukr prez election - round 1
Nov 01, 2004; By Peter Lavelle, plavelle@untimely-thoughts.com
========================================================
ARTICLES ARE FOR PERSONAL AND ACADEMIC USE ONLY
Articles are Distributed For Information, Research, Education
Discussion and Personal Purposes Only
========================================================
Ukraine Information Website: http://www.ArtUkraine.com
========================================================
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
A Publication Supported Financially By Its Readers
Please add your name to our list of financial contributors!
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"-04, is an in-depth news and
analysis international newsletter, produced by the www.ArtUkraine.com
Information Service (ARTUIS) and The Action Ukraine Report
Monitoring Service (TAURMS). The report is now distributed to several
thousand persons worldwide FREE of charge using the e-mail address:
ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net. This is the 217th Report issued so
far this year, out of the more than 240 to be issued in 2004.
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" is supported through The Action
Ukraine Program Fund. Financial support from readers is essential to
the future of this Report. You can become a financial sponsor of The
Action Ukraine Program Fund. Individuals, corporations, non-profit
organizations and other groups can provide support for the expanding
Action Ukraine Program by sending in contributions.
Checks should be made out to the Ukrainian Federation of America,
(UFA), a private, not-for-profit, voluntary organization. The funds should
be designated for the Action Ukraine Program Fund (AUPF), and
mailed to Zenia Chernyk, Chairperson, Ukrainian Federation of
America (UAF), 930 Henrietta Avenue, Huntingdon Valley, PA
19006-8502.
For individuals a contribution of $45-$100 is suggested. Your contribution
to help build The Action Ukraine Program to support Ukraine and her
future is very much appreciated. -30-
========================================================
If you would like to read "THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"-04
please send your name, country of residence, and e-mail contact information
morganw@patriot.net. Additional names are welcome. If you do not wish to
read "THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"-04, around five times per week,
let us know by e-mail to morganw@patriot.net.
========================================================
PUBLISHER AND EDITOR
Mr. E. Morgan Williams, Executive Director, Ukrainian Federation of America
(UFA); Coordinator, The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC);
Senior Advisor, Government Relations, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation (USUF);
Advisor, Ukraine-U.S. Business Council, Washington, D.C.;
Publisher and Editor, www.ArtUkraine.com Information Service (ARTUIS),
P.O. Box 2607, Washington, D.C. 20013,
Tel: 202 437 4707, E-mail: morganw@patriot.net
========================================================
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"-2004 SPONSORS:
"Working to Secure Ukraine's Future"
1. THE ACTION UKRAINE COALITION (AUC): Washington, D.C.,
http://www.artukraine.com/auc/index.htm; MEMBERS:
A. UKRAINIAN AMERICAN COORDINATING COUNCIL,
(UACC), Ihor Gawdiak, President, Washington, D.C., New York, NY
B. UKRAINIAN FEDERATION OF AMERICA (UFA),
Zenia Chernyk, Chairperson; Vera M. Andryczyk, President; E.
Morgan Williams, Executive Director, Huntingdon Valley, Pennsylvania.
http://www.artukraine.com/ufa/index.htm
C. U.S.-UKRAINE FOUNDATION (USUF), Nadia Komarnyckyj
McConnell, President, Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine .
2. UKRAINE-U.S. BUSINESS COUNCIL, Kempton Jenkins,
President, Washington, D.C.
3. KIEV-ATLANTIC GROUP, David and Tamara Sweere, Daniel
Sweere, Kyiv and Myronivka, Ukraine, 380 44 295 7275 in Kyiv.
4. BAHRIANY FOUNDATION, INC. Dr. Anatol Lysyj, Chairman,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA,
5. ODUM- Association of American Youth of Ukrainian Descent,
Minnesota Chapter, Natalia Yarr, Chairperson
========================================================