"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 235
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine, SUNDAY, November 28, 2004
-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. LONG LIVE UKRAINE! (SLAVA UKRAINY!)
By Valeriy Panyushkin, Special Correspondent
Kommersant (Moscow), Posted on Gazeta.ru
Moscow, Russia, Friday, 26 November 2004
[Translated by Lisa Koriouchkina for The Ukraine List (UKL)]
2. THE ACCIDENTIAL REVOLUTIONARY, WHY NATASHA DIMAN
JOINED THE FIGHT FOR CHANGE IN UKRAINE
Andrew Osborn in Kiev
The Independent, London, United Kingdom, Sat, Nov 27, 2004
3. JEREMY PAGE HEARS TWO VIEWS FROM THE BATTLEFIELD
Jeremy Page, The Times, London, UK. Sat, Nov 27, 2004
4.TENT CITY DEFINES FRONT LINE OPPOSITION TO YANUKOVYCH
By David Holley, Times Staff Writer, Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles, California, Friday, November 27, 2004
5. BIG BROTHER AND 'LITTLE RUSSIANS'
The very notion that Ukraine would turn into a Western outpost
on Russia's southern flank is a nightmare for Russia's ruling elite
By Richard Pipes, Newsweek International magazine
London, UK, December 6, 2004 Issue
6. "THE WEST'S MOMENT"
Protesters in Ukraine sang a new anthem: Vstavay! Rise up! But Moscow
didn't like it, and some warn of a new Cold War. Shades of 1989?
By Michael Meyer, Newsweek International magazine
London, UK, December 6, 2004 Issue
7. REMARKS BY THE U.S. PRESIDENT TO THE TRAVEL POOL
Question from a reporter about Ukraine, answer from the President
THE WHITE HOUSE, Office of the Press Secretary
Coffee Station, Crawford, Texas, Friday, November 26, 2004
8. BUSH SAYS WORLD IS WATCHING UKRAINE'S ELECTION DISPUTE
Mike Allen, The Washington Post, Washington, D.C. Sat, Nov 27, 2004
9. PRELIMINARY STATEMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL
REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE (IRI) ON THE NOVEMBER 21, 2004
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
International Republican Institute (IRI)
Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, November 22, 2004
10. CROWDS TAKE ON A DYNAMIC OF THEIR OWN
Yushchenko supporters across the land are moving to cripple the
government's command structure, reports Tom Warner
Tom Warner in Kiev, Financial Times, London, UK, Fri, Nov 26 2004
11. LETTER TO THE EDITOR: RESPONSE TO UKRAINE'S
CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS BY ANTHONY VAN DER CRAATS
From: Lidia Wolanskyj, Founder
Eastern Economist and EE Daily (1994-2003)
Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, November 24, 2004
12. LETTER TO THE EDITOR: RESPONSE TO: "UKRAINE'S
CONSTITUTIONAL CRISES" BY ANTHONY VAN DER CRAATS
From: Daniel McMinn, Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Nov 26, 2004
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 235: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
========================================================
1. LONG LIVE UKRAINE! (SLAVA UKRAINY!)
By Valeriy Panyushkin, Special Correspondent
Kommersant (Moscow), Posted on Gazeta.ru
Moscow, Russia, Friday, 26 November 2004
[Translated by Lisa Koriouchkina for The Ukraine List (UKL)]
I am in Kiev. I saw people rejoicing. I saw a city square full of people
wearing orange scarves and jackets. One cannot glance over a sea of
people . I saw cars honking in rhythm with the slogan "Yushchenko!
Yushchenko!" It is happening not only downtown but also on any street
of the city. And it happens not only to encourage one's supporters but
to express one's joy as well.
There are people on top of cars waving flags and shouting. My feelings
of joy of revolution were mixed with jealousy over the fact that I would
never see anything like that happening in Moscow. And I prayed to God
that I would live a little longer to see something similar to what is
happening in Kiev take place in Moscow.
Exuberant city. Peaceful, smiling, kind, united people. But most importantly
- they are free. Free! Free! I experienced jealousy and pride for the fact
that I am standing among these free and peaceful people. And these people
were not forcing me out despite the fact that I came from Russia, a country
whose minister of Foreign affairs is low enough to make an official
statement about NATO's geopolitical claims to Ukraine.
Listen, you, minister, come here, to Kiev. Go to Maidan and despite any
orders from Kremlin, you would not be able to utter a word about NATO's
geopolitical claims. There are many more of these people - young men and
women, children and elders, - than a Minister or a President of Russia could
ever imagine in their wildest dreams when they think about a category
"people". They might be fragile in body, but they are strong in spirit. And
do not deceive me that there are no Russian troops in Ukraine. They are
here. But if even one of them ever makes a single shot, as a citizen of
Russia I could never clear myself from shame and will never be pardoned
for this sin.
Yes, I realize that my statements are full of pathos. And pathos is not used
in Russian journalism. But you should understand me because I am in the
heart of a revolution while you are stuck in boring Moscow offices. Come
here, go to Maidan - and you will understand me.
For the last five days every meeting at Maidan begins with a prayer. And
they sincerely pray to God to grant them freedom. This is a revolution that
neither Vladimir Putin nor Viktor Yushchenko can stop. Only God can.
Vladimir Putin can spill blood here. He can spill a lot of blood. But before
giving an order about military actions, a president of Russia should have
come to Kiev, to Maidan and breathed in this air. It is stronger than any
army. One could send even the most cynical bastard from President
administration to Kiev and he would return wearing an orange scarf.
With his genuine soft-heartedness and inclination towards compromise,
Viktor Yushchenko could consent to negotiate with Leonid Kuchma or
Russian representatives. However, Maidan will not accept negotiations.
People will not leave Maidan until and unless Viktor Yushchenko is
pronounced President of Ukraine. The fact of the matter is that it is not
about Yushchenko. It is about freedom.
No, I very well understand that politicians in Moscow cannot comprehend
how the whole people could be drawn to the city square not due to the
PR technologies but to defend their freedom. But do come to Kiev, go
to Maidan and you will believe it.
I have not been happier in my entire life. I have not experienced greater
love than the feeling I experience towards every single person I meet on
Kreshchatik.
God damn it, how can I make the officials in Russia believe that they
cannot win here in Kiev but can only cover themselves with shame? How
can I make them believe that freedom does indeed exist if they believe
TV anchor Mikhail Leontiev's lies whom they paid to lie in the first place?
There is no way I can make the officials in Russia believe that freedom
exists. But come to Kiev, go to Maidan before Manezh Square turns
into Maidan.
I understand that my enthusiastic words are not in line with Russian
journalistic style, but you should try to understand me. I stopped by the
hotel to write this column while the city is rejoicing behind the windows
of my hotel. I am sitting in the hotel room scared that some bastard in
Moscow gives an order to shoot.
But I will finish this article, go back to Maidan and will stop being
afraid. -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: Article was republished in English by The Ukraine List
(UKL) #286, 26 November 2004, compiled by Dominique Arel,
Chair of Ukrainian Studies, University of Ottawa, 559 King Edward
Ave., Ottawa ON K1N 6N5, CANADA
For a free subscription to UKL, write to darel@uottawa.ca
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
========================================================
2. THE ACCIDENTIAL REVOLUTIONARY, WHY NATASHA DIMAN
JOINED THE FIGHT FOR CHANGE IN UKRAINE
Andrew Osborn in Kiev
The Independent, London, United Kingdom, Sat, Nov 27, 2004
SHE CAME to deliver a letter in Kiev's Independence Square, planning to
be back at her home town of Bila Tserkva by the evening. Five days later
Natasha Diman, a 24-year-old unemployed lawyer, finds herself at the
epicentre of a people's revolution that could shape the map of Europe for
future generations.
Her intention was to attend what she thought would be a short rally in
support of Viktor Yushchenko. But five days later, as Mr Yushchenko
met with his rival Viktor Yanukovych in the presence of European and
Russian mediators, Natasha is in the same square and her home has
become a flimsy tent pegged out on its icy slabs.
Like so many other Ukrainians, Natasha has become an accidental
revolutionary, propelled into a gargantuan collective display of civil
disobedience by strongly held convictions. She insists she will stay until
"final victory" is achieved, which she says could be anything between 10
days and a month from now.
"I only came here to hand in a letter with the results of the election for
my area [where she was an election observer] when I was accosted by a girl
who said that something needed to be done, that people needed to be fed,
clothed and marshalled. I agreed and I've been here ever since. I'll be here
until the victorious end."
She has spent the past few days handing out food and clothes to the
thousands of opposition supporters who have made central Kiev their home.
And when she is not doing that she is protesting, shouting pro-Yushchenko
slogans, blockading government buildings and marching around Kiev with
the "Orange Army".
Natasha's role in the revolution is not without sacrifice. She shares the
tent's cramped interior with three other women and carrier bag after carrier
bag of food and clothing. The freezing temperature and the constant
cacophony make life difficult; she has slept only three of the last four
nights. Although she claims that conditions for the "tent revolutionaries"
are "normal" she admits she is finding the experience hard.
"When I was in the tent on the first night it was so cold. It was -3C and I
quickly became ill. I thought it was bronchitis." Nor, she adds, did she
have any intention to become the opposition's quartermaster. Natasha's
week is one she'll never forget.
On Monday she unexpectedly became an opposition activist and quarter-
master and spent her first night in a tent close to the base of the city's
equivalent of Nelson's Column, a soaring stone and gold column with a
female representation of the Motherland atop it. On Tuesday she joined an
angry crowd who marched on the parliament to demand that Yushchenko
be officially endorsed by MPs and watched on a giant screen as he
unilaterally took the presidential oath.
On Wednesday she continued feeding protesters and organising supplies and
listened as Mr Yushchenko and Julia Timoshenko, his close political ally,
gave the activists instructions. By Friday she showed no signs of flagging
and her eyes sparkled brightly as she explained she was motivated by what
she called a criminal regime and miserable personal living standards.
Natasha worked as a court lawyer before she had to quit due to "corruption
and bribe-taking" and passionately hopes that the new era she is convinced
Ukraine is about to enter will allow her to work again. Her existence is
bleak. Her mother receives a pension of 160 hryvnia per month (pounds 16),
150 of which is spent on rent for the family apartment while the average
monthly salary is 250 hryvnia. But she is sure that the tide is turning in
the opposition's favour.
"They [the authorities] are already afraid, they're on the run. We can seize
power psychologically on this, Ukraine's most central square. They think
we'll give in and that we'll tire of this. But we won't. They have already
stolen everything but they have not stolen our voice." -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
========================================================
3. JEREMY PAGE HEARS TWO VIEWS FROM THE BATTLEFIELD
Jeremy Page, The Times, London, UK, Sat, November 27, 2004
Katya Kishinskaya, pro-Western Marketing executive
Katya Kishinskaya was on holiday in Germany when she realised what
was wrong with her country.
In the 13 years after the Soviet Union crumbled she learnt English, French
and German and got a job in Nestle's marketing department in Kiev. But
Ukraine seemed unable to shake off its Soviet past.
"When I saw another country, and compared other people's lives with our
own, I was astonished," she said. "Every time I return to Ukraine, I feel
how different the regime is here. I feel it at the border, at the Customs.
The people who have power don't respect you."
Ms Kishinskaya, 32, is one of thousands of young, Western-minded
professionals who have donned orange ribbons and headed for Independence
Square to support Viktor Yushchenko. "We want to live in a normal country,
not a small part of Russia," she said.
She was at first barred from voting in the presidential election because
she was registered in her home town of Zhitomyr, 100 miles west of Kiev.
Infuriated, she went to a court, which ruled in her favour, and then
returned to the polling station to demand her vote. That, she said, is just
one example of the bureaucracy that prevents Ukrainians achieving their
potential.
A geography graduate, she sought environmental work. But with no
government offices hiring such specialists, she had to look elsewhere.
She and her husband, Aleksei, earn £800 a month; enough to buy an
imported Subaru and a new one-bedroom flat in Kiev. It also helps to
support her retired parents.
Ms Kishinskaya and her husband listen to rock bands, read foreign
literature and watch art house movies. They want to travel more. They
encourage their eight-year-old daughter, Ann, to learn English. But they
face the constant threat of political and economic instability, and are
unsure even that their savings are safe in the bank.
She knows what is holding Ukraine back: its former Soviet masters.
"Russia is a great empire that lost its parts when the Soviet Union
collapsed. Now it's trying to collect these countries again," she said.
She feels bitter towards the Soviet Union. Her grandfather, a journalist,
was executed during Stalin's purges. Her grandmother, an ethnic German,
was so scared of persecution that she kept her ethnicity a secret until two
years ago. Nothing infuriates her more than foreigners saying that all they
know of Ukraine is Chernobyl and the Klitschko heavyweight boxing twins
-and that her country is a part of Russia.
Joining the EU and Nato, as Mr Yushchenko advocates, would end 500
years of Russian domination, she says. "We'd be able to travel freely in
Europe so we don't feel different from Europeans. Ukraine is a unique
country caught between Europe and Asia. This is a chance to choose
between the two. And it may be our last chance."
SERGEI TKACHENKO, PRO-RUSSIAN FIRE OFFICER
Sergei Tkachenko cannot understand the student protesters in
Independence Square.
The 33-year-old fire officer from Dnipropetrovsk in eastern Ukraine
struggles to explain to them why he is wandering around Kiev with a
placard supporting Viktor Yanukovych.
"I guess I'm just a conservative guy," he said. "These kids think
everything will change overnight and we will become a country like
France or Germany, but it won't," he said. "It will get worse."
Mr Tkachenko may be outnumbered in Kiev, but is typical of many
in eastern Ukraine who back the Prime Minister and see their future
in closer ties with Russia.
When Mr Tkachenko was young he dreamt of being a fighter pilot. He
entered military college, but graduated just as the Soviet Union collapsed.
The only work he could find was as a radar operator on Sakhalin Island
in Russia's Far East where he spent eight years before returning to an
economically devastated Ukraine.
He earns about £80 a month, and his wife brings in an extra £32 a month
as a local government secretary. They and their nine-year-old son, Daniel,
share a one-bedroom flat. At weekends, he goes fishing, or drinking with
his friends, and is saving for a Lada.
What most concerns him is keeping his flat and his job -and a decent
pension for his retired parents, who scrape by on £26 a month each.
"People like us want stability. That's the most important thing. People in
Kiev go to the West and work in other countries. But in my town most
people work for the State," he said.
He seized the chance to come and protest in Kiev when local officials
offered him $ 100 and a train ticket. For him, it was a question of loyalty
rather than politics. "Yanukovych is my boss. He pays my salary," he said.
"I am a military guy. It's in my nature to obey and support my leader."
He is unimpressed by Mr Yushchenko's pledge to pursue EU membership.
He has never travelled outside Ukraine, except to Russia, and prefers
speaking Russian. He prefers Mr Yanukovych's proposal to introduce
dual citizenship with Russia and make Russian an official language. His
wife was born in Russia and their son goes to a Russian-speaking school.
"If only we could have a leader like Putin. He's from the KGB. He knows
how to handle corrupt oligarchs and deal with foreign countries."
Mr Tkachenko would gladly sacrifice some personal freedom for greater
certainty about the future. His army service has also left him suspicious
of the West, and he cannot imagine Ukraine joining Nato, the enemy he
was trained to fight.
Even the music the opposition plays in Independence Square seems too
Western to him. He prefers old Soviet songs. Mr Yushchenko "talks and acts
like a Westerner. His supporters all think like Westerners. I'm not a
Westerner." -30- [The Action Ukarine Report Monitoring Service]
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
========================================================
4. TENT CITY DEFINES FRONT LINE OPPOSITION TO YANUKOVYCH
By David Holley, Times Staff Writer, Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles, California, Friday, November 27, 2004
KIEV, Ukraine - Alexandra Kondratyuk, a 20-year-old philosophy
major, has spent three freezing nights crammed with half a dozen other
students into one of the canvas domes filling the pavement just off
Independence Square.
Scattered among more than 1,000 tents are food stalls, heaps of
garbage awaiting removal, and even bigger piles of donated clothing,
boots and shoes awaiting distribution. Despite appearing chaotic, the
tent city has strict rules: identity documents must be shown to get
past barricades and guards, and neither weapons nor alcohol are allowed.
"We are like one family, sisters and brothers," Kondratyuk said of her
fellow campers. "I haven't seen such a situation anywhere, so I will
stay here until the end, when we get to our destination. ... We want
Yushchenko to be our president."
Part political theater, part Woodstock, the encampment near the city's
main square has become the front-line in the campaign to have
opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko declared the legitimate winner of
last Sunday's presidential vote. Protesters say they are bound by the
sense that they have the power to change Ukrainian history.
Yushchenko's supporters have been scoring significant victories. On
Saturday, they celebrated when Ukraine's parliament ruled that the
official results declaring Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych the winner
were fraudulent and invalid. Earlier this week, the nation's high
court ordered that the official vote count not be published, thwarting
plans for Yanukovych's inauguration.
Orange ribbons, scarves, balloons, banners, and even an artificial
orange Christmas tree with a Santa Claus cap on top, festoon the
makeshift city. Orange is the color of Yushchenko's campaign, and the
protest here is being called "the Orange Revolution" -- a takeoff on
Czechoslovakia's peaceful 1989 "Velvet Revolution" against communism
and last year's similarly nonviolent "Rose Revolution" in Georgia.
Supporters of Yanukovych staged their own massive rally Saturday in
the eastern city of Donetsk, the prime minister's power base.
Television broadcast scenes of tens of thousands gathered in that
city's main square to back his claim of legitimacy.
In Ukraine's largely Russian-speaking eastern region, Yanukovych is
seen as someone who will encourage good ties with Russia and keep
open the coal mines, while Yushchenko is feared by many as a Ukrainian
nationalist who might close mines as part of market-oriented reforms
and fail to protect the cultural rights of this country's Russian
minority and Russian-speaking Ukrainians.
Thousands of Yanukovych supporters have come to Kiev to rally
outside the city's main train station.
But in the capital, the streets belong to Yushchenko's supporters, who
with every passing day become more convinced that they will prevail.
Kondratyuk said that by moving into the camp, she has managed to
influence Russian friends in Moscow who favored Yanukovych so
strongly that political differences had begun to strain their friendship.
"When they heard that we're here all night in the snow and rain, they
wrote us and said, 'We understand you,"' she explained. "They feel
they are in warm flats and we are in cold tents, and now they
understand and want to help us. We feel like winners."
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin backed Yanukovych before the
election and during the postelection struggle, and Russian media have
strongly favored the prime minister.
Yushchenko wants closer ties with Western Europe and the United
States. So the battle here has taken on aspects of an east-west clash
within the country and beyond its borders.
About half this country's citizens speak Russian as their first
language, and half speak the closely related Ukrainian. Yanukovych
campaigned on a pledge to make Russian a second official language,
while Yushchenko's power base, aside from the capital, is in the
Ukrainian-speaking western part of the country.
Kondratyuk said that in heavily pro-Yushchenko and largely bilingual
Kiev, she can already see a backlash against Russian speakers.
"Maybe five days ago, people spoke in Russian," she said. "Then when
we had a meeting here, all the people began to speak in Ukrainian.
Five days ago, when I got on a bus, I only heard the Russian language.
Now people speak much less Russian."
In some eastern regions, many people are convinced that Yushchenko
will not represent their interests. As the possibility of Yushchenko
becoming president seemed to grow in the past few days, some
politicians there began to talk of demands for autonomy or even
separation from Ukraine and federation with Russia.
While largely populated by students, the encampment is home to a cross
section of Ukrainians. Most residents stay in their own tents or ones
distributed from a nearby former Soviet cultural center, which is
being used as a protest base.
More than a dozen military-issue brown canvas tents, each one big
enough to sleep dozens, have gone up in the past couple days. Two
small light-colored tents had green marijuana leaves painted on them.
One green tent had the words "Skin Heads Forever" painted in orange
on its side.
"We are Ukrainian skin heads," proudly proclaimed Bogdan Kovtonuk,
23, a factory worker. He and his friends were backing Yushchenko, he
said, because they view Yanukovych as linked to "crime syndicates."
Many opposition supporters charge that the prime minister is backed
by rich businessmen from the Donetsk region who gained their wealth
illegally.
"The tent city is a protest against Yanukovych, the Mafia behind him
and the people supporting him," said Sergey Ershenko, 27, one of the
campers. "We want to have a democracy even better than the American
one."
With a light snow falling, Ershenko said he felt very comfortable.
"Everyone is warm. We are only lacking California sun," he said.
Larisa Sedolaka, 47, a real estate agent and the mother of Ershenko,
visits the camp regularly after work to help distribute coffee. "My
son has been here for four days," she said. "I have two sons, and I
want them to live in a free democratic country. Young people are here
to stand up for their future."
Oleksandr Kaminsky, 49, an ethnic Ukrainian and Georgian citizen,
said the tent city is "the foundation on which the bricks of the nation
are being built." Kaminsky was impressed by the encampment's rules.
"We have a 'dry law' here," he said. "Only sober people can build
democracy. This is something very special."
Kaminsky expressed confidence that the encampment will not be
cleared violently, citing reports that police, security service personnel,
and the city prosecutor's office were supporting the protesters.
Lilia Yasinskaya, 22, a teacher from a town in western Ukraine, said
she has been spending days at the encampment but nights with a host
family. "I leave at midnight and come back in the morning," she
explained. "I was standing here, and a woman came up and offered to
let me stay at her apartment."
She added that she was ready to stay for the long haul: "I lack only
cosmetics. Otherwise, I have everything here." -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
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5. BIG BROTHER AND 'LITTLE RUSSIANS'
The very notion that Ukraine would turn into a Western outpost
on Russia's southern flank is a nightmare for Russia's ruling elite
By Richard Pipes, Newsweek International
London, UK, December 6, 2004 Issue
UKRAINE - The dramatic events unfolding since Ukraine's
presidential election can be understood only by taking into account
both Russia's imperial ambitions and its neighbor's split identity.
Russians have always been inordinately proud of their country's size.
In the 17th century they would boast to foreign visitors that Russia
was larger than the surface of the visible moon. In their language,
velikii means both "large" and "great," so that by a mental sleight
they have come to believe that entitles them to the status of a Great
Power.
The collapse of communism and the disintegration of the Soviet empire
profoundly affected the psyche of Russians. They simply cannot adjust
to the fact that they have been so much reduced in size and influence.
According to public-opinion polls, three-quarters of Russians regret
the passing of the Soviet Union: much of this nostalgia derives from
the feeling that the loss of the Soviet empire has turned them into a
minor power, which other nations neither respect nor fear. To deal
with this problem, the government of President Vladimir Putin has
quietly but steadfastly sought to restore Moscow's influence over what
had once been the Soviet republics and now are sovereign states.
Various devices have been employed to this end, including economic
pressure and the refusal to withdraw Russian troops from such places
as the Ukrainian city of Sevastopol, home port to Russia's Black Sea
fleet. Such methods have led to great tension in some neighboring
regions, notably Georgia, where Moscow has been intervening in
blatant disregard of that republic's sovereign rights.
No loss has been more painfully felt than that of Ukraine. This is not
only because Ukraine is the richest and most populous of the lost
dependencies. It is also because Ukraine had been the cradle of
Russian statehood, for it is here, in Kiev, a thousand years ago, that
its first government was formed. The "Little Russians," as Russians
traditionally called Ukrainians, are considered brothers, and their
separation into an independent state is seen as betrayal. But the
present conflict has yet another dimension. Viktor Yushchenko, the
popular candidate for the presidency whom the authorities have
declared the loser, is openly pro-Western, and some of his supporters
have incautiously predicted that under his administration, Ukraine
might apply for membership in NATO.
This prospect is intolerable to Moscow, which has gone as far as it
can in reconciling itself to NATO's presence along its European
border. The very notion that Ukraine would turn into a Western outpost
on Russia's southern flank is a nightmare for Russia's ruling elite.
The Ukrainian republic consists of two regions with very different
cultures and ethnic structures. The western, agricultural half lived
for centuries under Polish and Austrian rule, enjoying close contacts
with Europe. It is the center of Ukrainian nationalism as well as
libertarian traditions.
The eastern half, Ukraine's industrial heartland, has a large Russian
minority whose attitude toward Ukrainian nationhood is rather
ambivalent. In his endeavor to bring Ukraine into closer dependence
on Russia, Putin has relied on the Russian elements, as well as on the
bureaucratic apparatus, a holdover from Soviet days, which by its
upbringing and self-interest feels an instinctive hostility to democracy.
In the recent presidential elections, the prime minister, Viktor
Yanukovych, was the favorite of Moscow as well as the Ukrainian
bureaucracy, the Russian minority and the industrial magnates who had
made their fortunes cooperating with the pro-Moscow establishment.
His rival, Yushchenko, represented the democratic and pro-European
strivings of the Ukrainian majority. The bureaucracy, determined to
stay in power, blatantly rigged the election in Yanukovych's favor.
Putin's unseemly congratulations to Yanukovych before the election
results were even fully tabulated was a departure from his customary
caution and an indication of the importance he attaches to preventing
Ukraine's westward drift.
The gross violation of democratic procedures has set off popular
demonstrations on a scale never before seen in any former Soviet
republic and quite unthinkable in Russia, whose population is more
docile and more willing to acquiesce in whatever it is that its rulers
want. Two scenarios seem likely. One leads to a bloody confrontation
between the outraged Ukrainian population at large and the pro-Russian
elements in and out of government, a confrontation that could escalate
to a full-scale civil war. The other, much more sensible outcome is a
compromise in the form of a recount of the vote or even fresh elections.
The road taken depends a great deal on the West. If the United States
and Europe continue to exert pressure on both Moscow and Kiev, the
chances are that a peaceful resolution will be found, since neither
the Russian government nor its allies in Ukraine can afford to
alienate the Western democracies. But if the pressure weakens, out of
an ill-advised effort to placate Moscow, Putin and his Kievan friends
will be able to consummate their coup d'état. The result may be the
breakup of Ukraine and the disappearance of an important barrier to
Russia's further imperial ambitions. -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Pipes is professor emeritus of Russian history at Harvard. His latest
book is titled "Vixi: Memoirs of a Non-Belonger" (Yale University Press).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
URL: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6596874/site/newsweek/
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
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6. "THE WEST'S MOMENT"
Protesters in Ukraine sang a new anthem: Vstavay! Rise up! But Moscow
didn't like it, and some warn of a new Cold War. Shades of 1989?
By Michael Meyer, Newsweek International magazine
London, UK, December 6, 2004 Issue
It's hard to escape the echo of 1989, the year the Berlin wall fell and
oppressed peoples rose up to unseat communist dictators across Eastern
Europe. And so it seemed last week in Ukraine, where hundreds of thousands
of demonstrators protested the results of a presidential election widely
considered to have been rigged. In scenes reminiscent of yester-year's mass
uprisings in Leipzig and Berlin, or the joyous Velvet Revolution in Prague,
"people power" was once again on the march. Students, pensioners and
middle-aged workers braved snow and freezing temperatures in extraordinary
solidarity. They shouted Svoboda, or "freedom," and "We are the people!"
They waved the blue-and-yellow flag of their country amid a sea of orange
banners and ribbons-the color of the opposition, a symbol of fire within and
without. Rock stars sang a pop hit that, overnight, became a national
anthem: Vstavay! Rise up!
The lines could not be more clearly drawn, nor could the stakes be much
higher-for Ukraine or the West. On one side is the candidate of the
country's ruling elite: Viktor Yanukovych, the current prime minister (and
protege of the retiring President Leonid Kuchma), heavily backed by Moscow.
On the other is the darling of the West: Viktor Yushchenko, who pledges to
crack down on corruption and take the country further toward democracy
and membership in NATO and the European Union. When the government
completed its official count and narrowly awarded the election to hard-line
Yanukovych-despite exit polls showing a decisive victory for his liberal
rival-the stage was set for confrontation.
It does more than pit an angry people against their unpopular rulers, or
threaten civil conflict. It also marks a fundamental geopolitical divide,
with Ukraine as a battleground between a resurgent Russia, eager to assert
its old sphere of influence, and a United States and Europe equally
determined to spread democracy and the rule of law. "We cannot accept this
result," said U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell. European leaders were no
less blunt; their chief observer likened the vote to the sort that might be
held in North Korea. Russian President Vladimir Putin, by contrast, called
it "open and honest" and congratulated the purported winner on his
"convincing victory." Diplomats on both sides muttered darkly of a new
cold war, splitting Europe into hostile camps.
Dirty doesn't begin to describe this election. During the campaign,
opposition activists were beaten up, rallies were disrupted and state-
controlled TV spewed propaganda smearing Yushchenko as an enemy of the
people backed by America. Kremlin political advisers openly boasted of how
they issued daily instructions-temnyki-to news executives dictating what
issues to cover and how. There was vintage Soviet-era thuggery. Earlier this
fall Yushchenko was apparently poisoned, falling near fatally ill hours
after a private dinner with the head of the SBU, the country's secret
service. His face-movie-star handsome before the episode, pockmarked
and scarred afterward-is exhibit A for those who say the authorities tried
to kill him. Just before last week's vote, Yushchenko's supporters say, a
heavily loaded truck tried repeatedly to ram his car.
Fraud was everywhere in evidence. There was nothing subtle about it,
perhaps because the government had to go to such extremes to manufacture
a plurality. "This election was stolen in broad daylight," says Stephen
Sestanovich, a former U.S. ambassador in the region and an election monitor
sent to Ukraine by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Washington.
It's not enough to condemn the ballot as flawed or even illegitimate, as
many international organizations have done, he adds. "My preferred word is
'criminal'."
International observers recorded an astounding variety of abuses. Yanukovych
loyalists were issued certificates allowing them to cast absentee ballots
wherever they wished, then transported by bus or minivan from polling
station to polling station where they voted repeatedly. Intimidation was
routine. At military institutions, cadets were instructed how to vote. At a
state-ownedalcohol refinery in the central Ukraine town of Zhytomyr,
Yanukovych representatives came to the company director and told him that
he would be fired if his workers did not support their candidate. Similar
pressure was applied at state hospitals and universities; many were supplied
with ballots already filled out. In Zaporizhzhia, in southern Ukraine,
European observers watched as stacks of blank ballots were taken into a back
room, then returned after being checked for Yanukovych. When two members
of the Ukrainian Parliament objected, the lights mysteriously went out and
unknown assailants beat them up.
Turnout was high across the country, nowhere more so than in pro-Yanukovych
eastern Ukraine. There, an improbable 96 percent of registered voters cast
ballots. At one polling station in Donetsk, observers for the NDI recorded
more than twice as many votes as there were people on the official voting
list-a not uncommon phenomenon. In pro-Yushchenko districts, the game
was to disqualify as many citizens as possible, often by posing technical
challenges to the final count that would be resolved by a show of hands on
an election committee dominated by government appointees. Early on Election
Day in Simferopol, reports Sestanovich, one Yanukovych official proudly
pointed out a small narushenia, or "violation," not noticed by his rivals.
"Oh, yes," he said. "That will allow us to disqualify the entire ballot,"
worth some 1,700 votes for Yushchenko. Some of the trickery was almost
juvenile. In one pro-Yushchenko district, NDI observers found (and kept as
evidence) pens with invisible ink. Mark your ballot and, poof, within six
minutes it would record a vote for... no one.
What happens next? Everyone now looks to Ukraine's Supreme Court, which on
Thursday barred the government from inaugurating Yanukovych until the judges
hear a legal challenge from the opposition. That could come early this week.
"The court has been surprisingly independent in their recent rulings on
election matters," says Dmytro Potyekhin of the Ukrainian human-rights group
Znayu! But the stakes this time are monumental. Other signs of mounting
rebellion: on Saturday the country's Parliament met in emergency session and
voted to invalidate the election on the ground that it did not represent the
will of the people. On Friday two TV networks that had been unstinting in
their support for Yanukovych abruptly changed sides-live on-air-and joined
the opposition, declaring they'd had enough of "telling the government's
lies."
Meanwhile, President Kuchma has asked the presidents of Lithuania and
Poland, Valdas Adamkus and Aleksander Kwasniewski, to help mediate the
dispute. It is time to end this "so-called revolution," Kuchma declared on
national television, mixing defiance with hints of compromise. Yet it is the
opposition that increasingly seems to be controlling the pace of events.
After meeting face to face with his rivals last Friday evening, Yushchenko
called for a re-vote on Dec. 12-a demand that the government could only
counter with silence. Already municipal officials in Kiev and several other
western cities including Lviv have declared Yushchenko to be the country's
legitimate president and announced they would follow his orders.
Much depends on the staying power of the protesters. After a week on
the cold streets, their energy must sooner or later flag-an eventuality the
government clearly counts on. Still, the opposition has shown itself to be
tough and resourceful. Within hours last week Yushchenko's supporters had
erected the infrastructure of powerful civil protest. There was a huge sound
stage and a lineup of top Ukrainian musicians and political figures to stir
the crowds. There were strobe lights, giant projection screens and a tent
city (complete with kitchens and portable toilets) so that protesters could
maintain their round-the-clock presence. How long can they hold out? "As
long as it takes," answers Maryanna, a young student organizer, pulling a
thick orange scarf more tightly around her head.
Perhaps as much also depends on the staying power of the West. Behind
the scenes, diplomacy plays out. U.S. and European officials furiously
coordinated strategy throughout the week. "There's no daylight between us,"
says one senior American official. The European Union is categorical about
the importance of what's at stake in Ukraine, he adds. "Especially after
Iraq, it's great to have an issue on which we can work without any
tensions." That united front was evident at the EU-Russia summit in
Brussels. Putin, defensive and visibly angry, reiterated that the result of
Ukraine's election was "absolutely clear" and that Europe has no business
meddling. But Europeans would have none of that. "The EU is not able to
accept these results," said the union's president, Netherlands Prime
Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, echoing Powell. He then dispatched the EU's
foreign-policy czar, Javier Solana, to Kiev, where he immediately began
trying to broker a deal for yet another-and this time honest-round of
elections.
Putin is in a difficult position. Since coming to power in 2000, he has
recognized the value of bringing Russia closer to Europe. Yet relations have
come under increasing strain over issues ranging from Iraq to Chechnya to
Russia's rollback of democracy. Both Washington and Europe worry about
Russia's new aggressiveness in what Moscow calls the "near abroad,"
particularly its claims to a sphere of influence in Ukraine and
quasi-Stalinist Belarus. Putin twice traveled to Kiev before the election to
support Yanukovych, whom he is said to personally dislike for his criminal
past but strenuously prefers to Yushchenko for strategic reasons-the
Kremlin's abiding fear of Western "encirclement," highlighted in recent
years by the enlargement of the European Union, NATO expansion and the
stationing of U.S. troops in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Kremlin hawks
are pushing hard to hold onto Ukraine at all costs, and Putin himself has
lobbied to get formerly Soviet countries, as well as China and India, to
recognize Yanukovych as president. Says Sergei Markov, the Russian
president's adviser in Ukraine: "Putin is absolutely convinced that the West
wants Yushchenko as president for one reason: to blockade Russia."
With the United States and Europe pushing back, ties will suffer whatever
the outcome-but especially if Yanukovych takes office or there is bloodshed.
Europe and the United States have signaled that they would take retaliatory
measures. Those might range from refusing to recognize Yanukovych to
freezing assets and barring visas for top Ukrainian government and business
officials, downgrading diplomatic relations or imposing trade sanctions. "We
won't sit by and do nothing," says a senior official in Washington. "The
international community is watching very carefully," said President George
W. Bush from his Texas ranch. Events could yet go either way, but if the
West is united and triumphs, the revolutions of '89 will have taken a giant
leap forward, enveloping yet another once communist land into the fold of
the modern world. Vstavay, indeed. -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
With Frank Brown in Kiev, Stryker Mcguire in London and Eve Conant in
Washington. [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
7. REMARKS BY THE PRESIDENT TO THE TRAVEL POOL
Question from a reporter about Ukraine, answer from the President
THE WHITE HOUSE, Office of the Press Secretary
Coffee Station, Crawford, Texas, Friday, November 26, 2004
THE PRESIDENT: I just had a great Thanksgiving with our daughters
and my mother and dad and my mother-in-law. It's good to be back in Texas.
I wish the Crawford Pirates all the best in their state playoff football
game tonight. I know you agree with me. I'll take a couple of questions.
Q Thank you, Mr. President. If I could ask you about a couple
news developments today. Seventeen political parties in Iraq demanded
postponement of the January 30th elections for at least six months. I
wonder about your reaction to that. And there's a tentative deal on Iran's
nuclear weapons, but I wonder whether you think Iran should be trusted
given their history.
THE PRESIDENT: First of all, I appreciate the nations of Great
Britain and Germany and France who are working to try to convince Iran
to honor their international treaty obligations. And the only good deal is
one
that's verifiable. And I look forward to talking to the leaders of those
countries, if they can get Iran to agree to a deal, to make sure that it's
verifiable. I know that the Prime Minister of Great Britain wants a
verifiable deal because I've talked to him personally about it.
In terms of Iraq, the Iraq election commission has scheduled
elections in January, and I would hope they would go forward in January.
Q Mr. President, what are the consequences if Ukraine does not
comply with international pressure and demands on the elections? And do
you think that President Putin overstepped his bounds?
THE PRESIDENT: There's just a lot of allegations of vote fraud
that placed their election -- the validity of their elections in doubt. The
international community is watching very carefully. People are paying
very close attention to this, and hopefully it will be resolved in a way
that brings credit and confidence to the Ukrainian government.
[NOTE: Rest of text of press conference is not included here as it
did not relate to any matters regarding Ukraine. Editor]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
8. BUSH SAYS WORLD IS WATCHING UKRAINE'S ELECTION DISPUTE
Mike Allen, The Washington Post, Washington, D.C. Sat, Nov 27, 2004
CRAWFORD, Tex., Nov. 26 -- President Bush on Friday used his first
comments about the disputed presidential election in Ukraine to warn
authorities that the world is watching, but he struck a more conciliatory
tone than Secretary of State Colin L. Powell used earlier in the week.
Bush's comments appeared to allow for the possibility that the Moscow-
backed candidate's victory will stand, despite charges of fraud, and that
the administration will have to work with him instead of his Western-
leaning opponent.
Bush ventured off his ranch, where he is spending Thanksgiving week, to
eat a cheeseburger (all the way) and onion rings at a local hangout and to
spend five minutes bantering with reporters about world crises. He was
asked what the consequences would be if Ukrainian authorities did not
submit to international pressure to reconsider the results, and whether
Russian President Vladimir Putin had overstepped his bounds by saying
Western nations should stay out of the election.
"There's just a lot of allegations of vote fraud that placed their
election -- the validity of their elections in doubt," Bush said. "The
international community is watching very carefully. People are paying
very close attention to this, and hopefully it will be resolved in a way
that brings credit and confidence to the Ukrainian government."
That was a more restrained line than Powell took Wednesday, when he
said the United States cannot accept the result as legitimate, called for an
investigation into evidence of fraud and abuse, and spoke of "consequences
for our relationship" if the Ukrainian government did not act responsibly.
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, supported by Putin, was declared the
winner over Viktor Yushchenko, but amid street demonstrations, the
country's highest court delayed the winner's inauguration until it could
examine Yushchenko's complaint that the election was rigged.
The White House had also been harsher Tuesday in a written statement,
issued in the name of deputy press secretary Claire Buchan, saying the
United States was "deeply disturbed by extensive and credible indications
of fraud committed in the Ukrainian presidential election" and calling on
the government to "respect the will of the Ukrainian people."
[NOTE: Rest of article not included as it did not pertain to any matters
regarding Ukraine] [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
=========================================================
9. PRELIMINARY STATEMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL
REPUBLICAN INSTITUTE (IRI) ON THE NOVEMBER 21, 2004
UKRAINIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
International Republican Institute (IRI), Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, Nov 22, 2004
IRI has worked to promote democracy in Ukraine since 1992. Through work
with political parties, women's and youth organizations, IRI's contribution
to this year's presidential election was broad and substantial. In addition
to providing nationwide campaign training to political parties and
pollworker training to many parties fielding candidates in the presidential
election, IRI has also actively assisted in increasing the professional
capabilities of locally elected officials.
In 2003 and 2004, IRI trained thousands of political party activists in 14
oblasts. In addition, IRI provided legal training to attorneys representing
political parties. By focusing on grassroots political party development and
encouraging coalition building and legal advocacy, IRI's aim has been to
strengthen the ability of parties to communicate to a broader cross-section
of society based on substantive issues which voters care about. In doing so,
IRI hopes to increase public confidence and participation in Ukraine's
political institutions.
During the first round of the election, IRI fielded a twenty-five member
delegation representing a number of political parties in the United States
and Europe and comprised of election experts who have observed multiple
elections in numerous countries around the world. During the second round,
IRI fielded observation teams to Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Sumy, Odesa,
Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Kirovograd and Kyiv.
In our first round of observation, IRI found that a systematic and
coordinated use of government resources on a national scale created an
atmosphere of intimidation and fear designed to pressure people into
supporting the government-backed candidate. In the period leading up
to the second round, IRI found that such pressure in fact was increased.
In addition, IRI made the following conclusions in the period preceding
the runoff:
· government power structures' use of state resources such as schools
and state factories to force state workers and citizens who rely on state
enterprises for their livelihood to vote in support of the government-backed
candidate;
· failure of national and local state owned and private electronic media
to provide impartial and fair coverage of or access to opposition
candidates;
· the dismissal of election commission members just prior to Election
Day
· The government's collaboration with a foreign government to allow a
foreign president to appear in Crimea in the days just prior to Election
Day, in an effort to influence the vote.
On Election Day, IRI observed many problems including:
1) The voter list was again problematic in the second round of voting.
While there were some efforts to add or correct missing or misspelled names
between the first and second rounds of voting, there were reports of
continued inaccuracies on the voter lists.
2) Busing of voters among oblasts and polling stations for the purpose
of multiple voting
3) interference by unauthorized persons into the electoral process was
also prevalent throughout the country
4) expelling local and international observers, as well as journalists,
from polling stations, thereby depriving them of their legal right to
enter polling stations and monitor the balloting.
5) The Central Election Commission has not projected an image of
impartiality and fairness in the tabulation of votes. In a number of
polling stations, the percentage of votes certified by the CEC was greater
than 100% of total voters.
6) The Central Election Commission has failed to provide the appropriate
leadership and regulatory oversight of commissions on the territorial and
polling station level, resulting in extensive falsification and disregard of
election law and procedure.
7) Based upon reliable exit polls and early returns of parallel vote
counts, it appears that the official election results, as reported by the
CEC, do not appear to accurately reflect the will of the voters of Ukraine.
This is the eighth election to be held in Ukraine since its independence.
IRI found that Ukraine has fallen well short of international electoral
standards, and the Ukrainian government has taken a significant step
backwards in its quest to promote democracy. -30-
=====================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.235: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
======================================================
10. CROWDS TAKE ON A DYNAMIC OF THEIR OWN
Yushchenko supporters across the land are moving to cripple the
government's command structure, reports Tom Warner
Tom Warner in Kiev, Financial Times, London, UK, Fri, Nov 26 2004
Viktor Yanukovich, the prime minister, calls Ukraine's protest movement an
attempt at an "anti-constitutional coup". Viktor Yushchenko, the movement's
leader, calls it "people's self-defence" against an attempt to usurp power
illegally through voting fraud. Most journalists are calling it the Orange
Revolution.
Whatever one names it, the movement Mr Yushchenko began has become
an awesome demonstration of popular power. While Mr Yushchenko and
his party colleagues are trying hard to keep their followers organised and
disciplined, the growing crowds have taken on a dynamic of their own.
A crucial Supreme Court hearing into the allegations of fraud will not get
started until Monday. Before then, Mr Yushchenko's supporters are making
bold moves across the central and western regions, where he won big
majorities, to cripple the government's command structure.
The most dramatic standoff yet came before dawn on Friday when several
thousand police arrived in long columns of buses and attempted to retake
control of streets around the presidential administration building from Mr
Yushchenko's supporters.
One of the group's commanders said his mission was to ensure that Javier
Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief, and Polish President
Aleksander Kwasniewski, who were due to arrive to mediate in the crisis,
would have safe passage to the building.
The protesters had earlier extended their occupation of the streets around
the building to a full blockade of all its entrances. The foreign visitors
provided President Leonid Kuchma with an excuse to try to break the
blockade.
However, the police failed in their mission and Mr Kuchma's meeting with the
two foreign guests had to be held elsewhere. Protesters formed human chains
to block the movements of police, who were apparently under orders not to
use physical force unless attacked.
"There's a real struggle going on here for every five metres, and all the
action is at night," said Andrey, a protester positioned at one of the
administration building's rear entrances. "I've had at most two hours of
sleep a night all week."
The protesters were organised by commanders with bull horns, each with small
groups of sergeants. The commanders were in turn in touch by mobile phone to
Mr Yushchenko's command centre, headed by his former campaign chief,
Olexander Zinchenko. Mr Yushchenko has formed a sort of alternative
government, called the National Salvation Committee, to co-ordinate protest
actions as well as the actions of local administrations under his control.
The protesters also blockaded all entrances to the nearby cabinet building,
forcing Mr Yanukovich to announce that his government was suspending work
until the blockade ended. He was forced to address some 10,000 of his
supporters, most of them recently arrived from eastern regions, at Kiev's
train station.
Mr Yushchenko's supporters were rapidly taking control of municipal and
regional councils and administrations around central and western Ukraine,
many of which had supported him before the elections. In the city of
Mukachevo, police showed their support for him by arresting a group blamed
for violence during the elections and during a mayoral election in May.
Mr Yanukovich's supporters in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk
have talked of "autonomy" and cut shipments of goods to central and western
Ukraine. There were also worries that Crimea could move towards separatism
and fears voiced by Yevhen Marchuk, a former defence minister who came out
on Friday in support of Mr Yushchenko, that Russian troops at a base in
Sevastopol could become involved.
However, in another eastern Ukrainian city, Kharkiv, some 70,000 Yushchenko
supporters rallied and set up a permanent tent camp in the central
square. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 235: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
11. LETTER TO THE EDITOR: RESPONSE TO: "UKRAINE'S
CONSTITUTIONAL CRISES" BY ANTHONY VAN DER CRAATS
From: Lidia Wolanskyj, Founder
Eastern Economist and EE Daily (1994-2003)
Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, November 25, 2004
Dear Mr. van der Craats,
Firstly, the Ukrainian legislature is not known as a "Duma." That
is the Russian legislature. The Ukrainian legislature is known as
a "Rada."
Secondly, there were no polls taken after two weeks prior to the
first round of the election, just about the time when pensioners and
others began to feel the pinch of inflation. Moreover, the current
Administration did everything in its power to discredit polls
altogether by buying off various organizations to skew results. It
also played that game with the exit polls on the first round. And,
finally, there was enormous pressure going into the first round that
made it highly unlikely that people in many parts of Ukraine would
openly declare their preferences. The second round polls showed
Yushchenko ahead by around 4-5 points, more than the margin
of error.
Thirdly, the three credible exit polls taken after the second round
were unanimous: Yushchenko won by 4-12 points and the numbers
(48-55% for Yushchenko vs. 37-43% for Yanukovych) did not
overlap at all. That, too, is a spread that margin of error does not
eliminate (such as what happened in the US's recent election).
Fourthly, the Yushchenko team managed to collect original "protocols"
from most polling station (observers and press are allowed to have
such protocols and there was a concerted effort to collect them).
According to their counts, the vote was 52% for Mr. Yushchenko and
42% for Mr. Yanukovych, more or less what the exit polls indicated.
Fifthly, you have no idea of the depth and extent of manipulation,
intimidation and simple falsification (using a dozen different
techniques, including 35% of the vote being done by mobile units in
one oblast) that went on. If this could be eliminated somehow, Mr.
Yushchenko might have come out with 65-70% of the vote!
Finally, you don't seem to be aware that there are actually Russian
Special Forces on Ukrainian soil as of two days ago.
As to Constitution reforms, there I agree with you, though not about
the timing. I have been suggesting to many of my colleagues here that
Ukraine consider going over to a completely parliamentary system,
like England or Canada. Mr. Yushchenko would likely win that
election, too.
Sincerely, Lidia Wolanskyj, Founder
Eastern Economist and EE Daily (1994-2003)
Kyiv, Ukraine -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTNOTE: The letter that Anthony van der Craats wrote to
The Action Ukraine Report was published in the Report number
231, on November 24, article number 18. [Editor]
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 235: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
12. LETTER TO THE EDITOR: RESPONSE TO: "UKRAINE'S
CONSTITUTIONAL CRISES" BY ANTHONY VAN DER CRAATS
Daniel McMinn, Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday,November 26, 2004
In his letter to the editor Mr. van der Craats seems to mistake and distort
a number of the issues involved in the recent election in Ukraine.
1) He says the political standoff is damaging to Ukraine's reputation and
the "polls always indicated that the Presidential race was going to be
close". What he does not mention is that the most recent polls indicated
that Yushchenko was ahead, or that all credible international observers
(OSCE, IRI, NDI, EU, ENEMO, etc.) found major election manipulation
on the part of the government, or that this final election fraud was only
the capstone on a massive campaign of slander, interference, and
intimidation.
The results of the election were not just a "risk and problem that could
always occur with a direct Presidential election" they are the result of
concerted attempts by corrupt political forces and businessmen to override
the results of a direct Presidential election.
2) The comparison with the 2000 US Election is silly. George W did not
"hijack" the political process last time around. The process was that in
problematic situations like the one in Florida, the Supreme Court would
decide. They did. Hijacking is when you get 114% of voters in some areas
of Donetsk to vote for you. Poor ballot process is when some voters in
Florida mistakenly fill out their ballots. The first is undemocratic, the
second merely unfortunate.
3) "Does Ukraine keep going to the ballot box until the US Executive is
happy and the Our Ukrainian block manages to secure a majority?" They
went to the ballot box twice. In the first they voted for Yushchenko, in the
second they again voted for Yushchenko according to all credible exit
polls. That's plenty enough trips to the ballot box, but the Central
Election
Committee refuses to consider a 96% turnout in Eastern strongholds
irregular. Perhaps they think it's normal because they remember that
numbers almost as high as these were achieved in Ukraine before.
during Stalinism.
4) Furthermore, the US is for the democratic process, which, read the
OSCE's assessment, please, was violated in this election. It's the
Russians who've made their candidate preference clear.
5) Election by the Ukrainian Parliament is a fine solution to a different
problem. It was suggested back in January by a pro-presidential
Parliamentary majority that had been created after the opposition
Parliamentary majority dwindled away amid accusations of bribery and
coercion. The opposition considered, and considers, this a ploy to take
away all the power of the Presidency right before they achieve the office,
so that all business can return to normal. (or Kuchma can become
newly-empowered Prime Minister) The problem in this election is not
a "hung jury" with the electorate resulting from problems with direct
election, it is fraud.
6) In the end, it is not "the Parliament that should decide how and under
what conditions Ukraine is to be governed" it is the Ukrainian people,
and they did, and their choice should be honored.
Dan McMinn, Kyiv -30-
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FOOTNOTE: The letter that Andy van der Craats wrote to The
Action Ukraine Report was published in the Report number 231,
on November 24, article number 18. [Editor]
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C. U.S.-UKRAINE FOUNDATION (USUF), Nadia Komarnyckyj
McConnell, President, Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine .
2. UKRAINE-U.S. BUSINESS COUNCIL, Kempton Jenkins,
President, Washington, D.C.
3. KIEV-ATLANTIC GROUP, David and Tamara Sweere, Daniel
Sweere, Kyiv and Myronivka, Ukraine, 380 44 295 7275 in Kyiv.
4. BAHRIANY FOUNDATION, INC. Dr. Anatol Lysyj, Chairman,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA,
5. ODUM- Association of American Youth of Ukrainian Descent,
Minnesota Chapter, Natalia Yarr, Chairperson
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PUBLISHER AND EDITOR
Mr. E. Morgan Williams, Executive Director, Ukrainian Federation of America
(UFA); Coordinator, The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC);
Senior Advisor, Government Relations, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation (USUF);
Advisor, Ukraine-U.S. Business Council, Washington, D.C.;
Publisher and Editor, www.ArtUkraine.com Information Service (ARTUIS),
P.O. Box 2607, Washington, D.C. 20013,
Tel: 202 437 4707, E-mail: morganw@patriot.net
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