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Action Ukraine Report

"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT"
An International Newsletter
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary

"The Art of Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"

"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT" Year 04, Number 239
The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC), Washington, D.C.
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), Huntingdon Valley, PA
morganw@patriot.net, ArtUkraine.com@starpower.net (ARTUIS)
Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine, TUESDAY, November 30, 2004

NOTE: The Action Ukraine Report has increased its production
schedule because of the extraordinary events happening in Ukraine.
We are now publishing two Report's each day, whenever possible,
to try and keep up with the huge flow of very important articles.

-----INDEX OF ARTICLES-----
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"

1. UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION WITHDRAWS FROM NEGOTIATIONS
UNIAN news agency, Kiev, in Ukrainian 1530 gmt 30 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, November 30, 2004 (15:30)

2. PORA CALLS ON YUSHCHENKO TO ABANDON
NEGOTIATIONS WITH KUCHMA AND YANUKOVYCH
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, November 30, 2004 (20:41)

3. YUSHCHENKO CALLS ON CABINET OF MINISTERS TO RESIGN
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, Nov 30, 2004 (14:41)

4. YANUKOVYCH OFFERING YUSHCHENKO POST OF PRIME
MINISTER IF SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS RESULTS OF
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, November 30, 2004 (13:06)

5. YANUKOVYCH CALLS ON YUSHCHENKO TO REFUSE WITH
HIM FROM COMPETING IN NEW ELECTIONS IF SUCH TAKE PLACE
Ukraine News Service, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, November 30, 2004 (13:07)

6. SERHII TIHIPKO WANTS TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT
Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, November 30, 2004 (15:48)

7. "THOUGHTS ON THE REVOLUTION IN UKRAINE"
OP-ED by Anders Aslund
The Action Ukraine Report
Washington, D.C., Tue, November 30, 2004

8. INDUSTRIALIST BANKS ON YANUKOVICH WIN
Rinat Akhmetov, believed to be Ukraine's richest man
By Tom Warner, recently in Donetsk, Financial Times
London, UK, Mon, November 29 2004

9. "FIGHTING FOR A FREE UKRAINE"
By Lubomyr Luciuk, The Montreal Gazette
Montreal, Canada Sat, 27 November 2004

10. UKRAINE PUSHING POLAND'S BUTTONS
Disputed election rouses the land of Walesa over what people there
see as an unfinished battle against vestiges of the former Soviet Union.
By Jeffrey Fleishman, Times Staff Writer
Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles, CA, Tue, November 30, 2004

11. UKRAINE'S ELECTIONS: THE FORCES IN PLAY (I)
By James Sherr, Conflict Studies Research Centre
Defence Academy of the United Kingdom [1]
United Kingdom, Thursday, November 25, 2004

12. "UKRAINE'S ELECTIONS: THE FORCES IN PLAY (II)"
By James Sherr, Conflict Studies Research Centre
Defence Academy of the United Kingdom [1]
United Kingdom, Monday, 29 November, 2004

13. "IN SOLIDARITY WITH THE PROTESTERS IN KIEV"
Andrew Stuttaford on Ukraine, National Review Online
New York, New York, Mon, November 29, 2004
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 239: ARTICLE NUMBER ONE
========================================================
1. UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION WITHDRAWS FROM NEGOTIATIONS

UNIAN news agency, Kiev, in Ukrainian 1530 gmt 30 Nov 04
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, November 30, 2004 (15:30)

KIEV - Ukraine's deputy parliamentary speaker Oleksandr Zinchenko,
who heads [opposition leader] Viktor Yushchenko's campaign HQ, has
said that Our Ukraine [opposition bloc] is withdrawing from negotiations
and will resume its blockade of government buildings.

Zinchenko said that the authorities were trying to "lull our supporters"
with talks. He stressed that the opposition "is not using the people as a
pressure tool", but will not let the authorities use the people as "silent
masses" who follow the government's orders.

Zinchenko also said that progovernment MPs were put under immense
pressure last night, and it is not surprising that "there were talks of
bribing". [Passage omitted: background on the election dispute] -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER TWO
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2. PORA CALLS ON YUSHCHENKO TO ABANDON
NEGOTIATIONS WITH KUCHMA AND YANUKOVYCH

Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, November 30, 2004 (20:41)

KYIV - The Pora campaign calls on Our Ukraine coalition leader Viktor
Yuschenko to abandon negotiations with President Leonid Kuchma and
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. This was disclosed in the statement
of Pora campaign, the text of which Ukrainian News obtained. The state-
ment was approved in the tent town on the Independence Square in
Kyiv.

"Pora declares actions... of Kuchma and... Yanukovych criminal with
respect to the Constitution of Ukraine and believes them to be persons
who attempted coup d'etat... We are calling on Viktor Yuschenko to
make a personal and public announcement about cessation of negotiations
with the state criminals," reads the statement.

Pora stressed that it does not support any agent of Ukrainian politics,
but holds hard-edged fighting for the rights of citizens. According to
the campaign, talks with Yuschenko with authorities are unacceptable,
as they may lead to demoralizing of the people's resistance, and to
discrediting of the new Ukrainian power

"Pora makes a statement that it starts active operations today," reads
the statement. The campaign also stresses that it keeps the right to
start active operations if the effort of the opposition to solve the
conflict through Yanukovych's resignation fails.

According to Pora, it is in the interests of national security to start full
operation of the state institutions under the leadership of Yuschenko.
"Under the leadership of the newly elected President," reads the statement.
The campaign also addressed the Supreme Court asking to avoid
prolongations in the decision on the case of Yuschenko complaint on
the count of results of election by the Central Election Commission.

In case of inadequate, in Pora's opinion, actions of the Supreme Court,
the campaign will address the Verkhovna Rada with a request to take
decisions, that will permit Yuschenko to start working as president, and
to strengthen his legitimacy by holding an all-Ukrainian referendum during
the following three months. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER THREE
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3. YUSHCHENKO CALLS ON CABINET OF MINISTERS TO RESIGN

Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, Nov 30, 2004 (14:41)

KYIV - The Our Ukraine coalition's leader Viktor Yuschenko has
called on the Cabinet of Ministers to resign. Yuschenko made the call
in an address to the parliament.

Yuschenko blamed the Cabinet of Ministers for the unbalanced state
budget and accused it of falsifying the results of the presidential
elections and involvement in the attempts to create an autonomous
entity in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine.

"The people [responsible] for these actions should resign, they should
demonstratively resign..." Yuschenko said. According to him, it is necessary
to bring to justice all the people involved in the attempts to crate
autonomous entities in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, the Socialist Party's leader Oleksandr
Moroz has called on President Leonid Kuchma to dismiss the Cabinet of
Ministers, dissolve the Central Electoral Commission, and dismiss
Prosecutor-General Hennadii Vasyliev. -30-
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER FOUR
========================================================
4. YANUKOVYCH OFFERING YUSHCHENKO POST OF PRIME
MINISTER IF SUPREME COURT UPHOLDS RESULTS OF
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, November 30, 2004 (13:06)

KYIV - Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has offered Our Ukraine
Coalition leader Viktor Yuschenko the post of prime minister if the
Supreme Court upholds the resolution of the Central Election
Commission on declaring Yanukovych the president-elect.
Yanukovych made this statement to the press.

At the same time he declared his readiness together with Yuschenko
and other political forces to review and prepare democratic changes to
the Constitution providing for more powers to the prime minister.

"I am ready to offer Viktor Andriyovych Yuschenko the position of
prime minister of Ukraine. In fact, with the new Constitution, he will be
the first figure in the state, and to form a coalition government with him,
but without the language of ultimatum," Yanukovych said. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER FIVE
Please send us names for the free distribution list
========================================================
5. YANUKOVYCH CALLS ON YUSHCHENKO TO REFUSE WITH
HIM FROM COMPETING IN NEW ELECTIONS IF SUCH TAKE PLACE

Ukraine News Service, Kyiv, Ukraine, Tue, November 30, 2004 (13:07)

KYIV - Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych is proposing that he and the
Our Ukraine coalition's leader Viktor Yuschenko should both decide not
to participate in the fresh presidential elections that will possibly be
conducted if the recent presidential elections are declared invalid.
Yanukovych announced this to journalists.

"Well, if judicial inspections ... prove that violations occurred, I am
proposing holding fresh elections in Ukraine and proposing that Viktor
Andriyovych Yuschenko - I am speaking officially - that neither he not
I go to the elections," Yanukovych said.

Yanukovych added that there are many worthy politicians in Ukraine
who could contest the fresh elections, including the Communist Party's
leader Petro Symonenko, the Socialist Party's leader Oleksandr Moroz,
and the Progressive Socialist Party's leader Natalia Vitrenko. -30-
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER SIX
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
6. SERHII TIHIPKO WANTS TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT

Ukrainian News Agency, Kyiv, Ukraine, November 30, 2004 (15:48)

KYIV - Serhii Tihipko, the former chairman of the National Bank of
Ukraine and former head of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's
election campaign headquarters, is not ruling his participation in fresh
presidential elections if the recent presidential elections are invalidated.

Tihipko announced this on the Channel 5 television station when news
presenter Andrii Shevchenko asked him whether he planned to contest
if fresh presidential elections were ordered.

"Yes, I rule in [my participation]. I believe that I have certain
obligations to the people I campaigned for and I have specific
positions on many issues," Tihipko said.

According to him, he doe not rule out his participation in fresh elections
even if Yanukovych decides to participate. However, he said that the
probability of this was low. "I think that we will reach agreement here,
but I can rule in the possibility of even competing against Yanukovych,"
Tihipko said.

As Ukrainian News earlier reported, Serhii Tihipko resigned as the
chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine and Yanukovych's election
campaign manager on Monday and said that he intended to engage in
politics. Tihipko heads the Labor Ukraine party. The parliament
appointed Tihipko as the head of the National Bank of Ukraine in
December 2002. -30- [Action Ukraine Monitoring Service]
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER SEVEN
Your comments about the Report are always welcome
========================================================
7. "THOUGHTS ON THE REVOLUTION IN UKRAINE"

OP-ED by Anders Aslund
The Action Ukraine Report
Washington, D.C., Tue, November 30, 2004

At present, it seems as if the Supreme court of Ukraine will soon judge the
second round of the elections invalid, after which the parliament will
appoint a new Central Election Committee and set a date or the renewed
second round, probably December 19. Many issues remain open, such as
how much of the second round that will be redone and whether a major
political reform will be instigated. Yet, it is difficult to believe in
anything but Yushchenko's eventual victory. Yanukovich's playing with
separatism seems one big step too far.

Looking back at the election campaign, the most amazing thing about the
Ukrainian drama in the last month is how perfectly predictable it has been.
When I visited Ukraine in late July, people by and large said that three
things would happen subsequently. First, Yushchenko would win the real
presidential election. Second, Yanukovich would steal the elections. Third,
then everybody would go out into the streets, and the Georgian scenario
would materialize. That is exactly what has happened. Both sides were
prepared, and they had geared up to this drama.

The falsification of the vote count was as crude as massive, as is plan from
the web site of the Central Election Commission. Officially, Yanukovich won
by 2.85 percent in the second round. However, this was accomplished through
obvious ballot-box stuffing. Overall, participation in the second round
increased by 5.4 percent of the electorate, but there was a minimal increase
of 0.6 percent of the electorate in the 17 regions where Yushchenko won, but
a whopping surge of 9.1 percent in the 10 regions where Yanukovich won. In
particular, participation rose by 18.6 percent of the electorate to an
extraordinary participation of 96.7 percent in Donetsk oblast, where 96.2
percent allegedly voted for Yanukovich.

If we just assume that the overall participation would have increased by 0.6
percent of the electorate, the Yanukovich people added 1.7 million votes or
5.5 percent of the votes cast. Obviously, all the added votes must have been
for Yanukovich, so discounting for this effect alone, Yushchenko would have
won by 3 percent of the votes cast. There were all kinds of other forms of
cheating in both rounds, disinformation and massive repression as well.
Thus, in a free and fair election Yushchenko might very well have won by 70
percent.

Today, it appears as if Yushchenko has won this duel. First of all, he has
stayed alive. The masses have really come out into the streets. The perhaps
most important factor is that the revolutionary fervor has caught on. The
sense of one hundred thousand people or even more is truly enormous.
Ukrainians have found all their old prejudices about themselves denied. They
have proven determined and well-organized rather than disinterested and
disorderly, sober rather than drunk, and intellectual rather than
indifferent. I heard similar reflections in Poland after Pope John Paul's
first visit in the summer of 1979 and later during the Solidarity period.

As somebody said, in 1991, Ukraine got independence, now it finally earned
it. Oleksandr Potiekhin said that the Ukrainian nation has not been reborn
but born. The demonstrators in Kiev dance in strength and chant "East and
West together" instead of antagonizing the easterners. It is very difficult
to stop such a revolutionary fervor, especially when it is so peaceful. The
peacefulness is the great victory of the revolutionaries.

Yushchenko's main challenge was to avoid being painted into the Ukrainian
nationalist corner. With his victory in central Ukraine, especially Kiev,
and three eastern regions, notably Sumy and Poltava, he had proven his
sway in Russian-speaking regions. Then, it was no longer an issue of
language or ethnicity. So what was it? Democracy! It is very difficult to
stand up against democracy in an even semi-democratic election.

When the popular majority has been established, it is critical to reach to
the centers of power. Even before the presidential elections, Yushchenko
achieved a parliamentary majority in major political questions, though
dependent on communist support. The parliament has already declared
the elections invalid and dismissed the Central Election Commission.

The three other big powers to watch are the police, the courts and the
media. To judge from the reporting, much of the police and the special
police have joined Yushchenko. It is particularly reassuring to see that the
old opportunist Yevhen Marchuk has joined him. To my happy surprise,
the Supreme Court appears to have decided to do its job recently, and
that means that it will judge firmly to Yushchenko's benefit. The television
journalists seem to just have had it and all of a sudden the very
journalists stand up for Yushchenko. Although the situation is not
altogether clear, it does appear reassuring.

The one factor that remains worrisome is the Eastern regions, essentially
Donetsk and Luhansk. However, as these are the only truly dictatorial
provinces in Ukraine, it is difficult to take any manifestations there
seriously. Repression is not that bad, and people will stand up against
dictatorship also there. Secession to an authoritarian Russia makes little
sense, even if the GDP per capita is substantially higher in Russia. There
might be a problem, but it should be possible to handle.

The Western reactions have surprised me positively, especially Colin Powell'
s strong statement on November 24 about not recognizing the official results
of the elections. Europe has a good situation with the OSCE having gained
muscle, the Council of Europe always being clear on democracy, and the EU
trying to keep up with those two institutions, and the EU has benefited from
the Dutch presidency, as the Dutch traditionally focus on democracy and
human rights. The US and the EU have come together on a critical foreign
policy issue.

Putin and his Russian political advisors are of course left with egg on
their face, as Stephen Sestanovich put it on National Public Radio. Putin
has disastrously for him united the US and the EU against him. The mutual
recriminations of the Russian political advisors are already staggering.
Gleb Pavlovsky and Sergei Markov were arguably the man propagandists
of Yankovich. Now they should take their responsibility rather than blame
everybody else. This is probably the biggest blow to Putin's authority after
Beslan.

The natural decision is to hold a new second round of the presidential
elections as soon as possible. That should be presumably be made by the
Supreme Court. A new Central Election Commission as well as regional and
local election commissions must be appointed. Some of the worst election
practices, such as ambulatory ballot boxes and absentee ballots, should be
outlawed. Obviously, foreign monitors who played such an important role in
the tow first rounds of the presidential elections are vital also here.

One outstanding danger is that the process takes too long time so that
people get tired or the sheer costs of disruption rise. Another worry is
that the good-hearted Yushchenko gets cheated in a negotiation. I feel much
safer if he sends Tymoshenko, Zinchenko or Poroshenko to a nasty
negotiation. Yet, at this stage negotiations should be minimized. Yushchenko
should offer concessions from above rather than negotiate them. He should
not push reprivatizations or prosecution over corruption, as corruption has
been pervasive. Instead, he should offer a general amnesty, but not for
murder.

It is vital to get going with a reform program pretty soon. This is a
wonderful opportunity to undertake a political reform, which should reduce
presidential power and produce early parliamentary elections according to
a proportional system. Then, Ukraine could move from its unaccountable
presidential system to a normal parliamentary system. The party system
would be strengthened, and the oligarchs would naturally accommodate
without much of a struggle.

Meanwhile, it is important to get going on an economic and social reform
program very soon to combat corruption, build democracy and rule of law,
while building welfare. Ukraine can finally do it all, and so much is ready
to go. Ukraine's main economic problem has long been corruption, but in
the current political climate public officials hardly dare to take bribes.
That will bring a greater economic benefit than the loss of one month's
production that is likely because of the present general strike.

God bless the Ukrainians! -30-
---------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
-
Anders Aslund is Director of the Russian & Eurasian Program,
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), Washington, DC.
He has been very active regarding Ukrainian matters for many years. He
has written and spoken extensively about Ukraine. We appreciate the
opportunity to publish his latest article. Mr. Aslund can be contacted
at e-mail address: aaslund@ceip.org.
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER EIGHT
=========================================================
8. INDUSTRIALIST BANKS ON YANUKOVICH WIN
Rinat Akhmetov, believed to be Ukraine's richest man

By Tom Warner, recently in Donetsk, Financial Times
London, UK, Mon, November 29 2004

For Rinat Akhmetov, the coal and steel baron who is believed
to be Ukraine's richest man, the declining prospects that his
long-time ally Viktor Yanukovich will become president have
been hard to accept.

Dressed casually in cream-coloured jeans and a wool sweater, Mr
Akhmetov spoke to the FT on Sunday in the piano bar of his new
Donetsk luxury hotel, the Donbass Palace, as thousands of black-
jacketed, working-class Yanukovich supporters rallied in a nearby
square.

Speakers at the rally threatened to secede, along with other eastern
and southern regions, unless Mr Yanukovich was instated as president -
a tall order given the hundreds of thousands rallying in the capital
Kiev calling for the presidency to be handed to his challenger, Viktor
Yushchenko.

"I'm against these calls for separatism," Mr Akhmetov said. "But
Yushchenko should realise that his actions are pushing eastern and
southern Ukraine that way."

A day earlier, more than 50 of Mr Yanukovich's supporters in
parliament bowed to popular pressure and voted with pro-Yushchenko
factions to urge a re-run of the presidential elections.

Mr Yanukovich's decision to hold the congress of local councillors
from eastern and southern regions to discuss regional autonomy has
further reduced his support. His campaign chief, Sergey Tyhypko,
resigned yesterday, saying he did not accept the congress's
recommendations.

Nonetheless, Mr Akhmetov held out hope that the Supreme Court,
which this week began hearing Mr Yushchenko's challenge to the
election result, would uphold the Election Commission's view and
declare Mr Yanukovich the winner.

"I think Yanukovich has better chances to become a legitimate
president than Yushchenko," Mr Akhmetov said. Mr Akhmetov's
decision to support Mr Yanukovich was a high-stakes gamble.

Since the mid-1990s, Mr Akhmetov has built Ukraine's largest
financial-industrial group, embracing steel, pipe, machinery and
coking plants. He also owns the steel plant in Yenakievo, near
Donetsk, where Mr Yanukovich, a former governor of the region,
held his first job.

Mr Akhmetov pointed out that he bought most of his companies on
the secondary market, paying "ten times more" than privatisation prices.

During the past year, however, Mr Akhmetov has won several
privatisation tenders. This summer the Industrial-Metallurgical Union,
of which he owns just under half, paid $800m (Euro 602m, £422m) for
Ukraine's largest steel mill, Kryvorizhstal, after bids of up to $1.5bn
were excluded. Mr Yushchenko has criticised the Kryvorizhstal
sale and promised to review it.

Mr Akhmetov's media present almost solely pro Yanukovich views.
Mr Akhmetov said: "These are the views of the editors, the journalists
and the people of Donetsk. My policy is not to interfere with my
managers' decisions." He said he applied the same hands-off principle
to politics. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2ec0706e-422e-11d9-8e3c-00000e2511c8.html
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ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No.239: ARTICLE NUMBER NINE
Suggested articles for publication in the Report are always welcome
=========================================================
9. "FIGHTING FOR A FREE UKRAINE"

By Lubomyr Luciuk, The Montreal Gazette
Montreal, Canada Sat, 27 November 2004

Writing this, I am looking at a photograph of my father. He is marching.
Swirling around him are thousands of others, carrying placards, recalling
the many millions murdered by Moscow's men, demanding freedom for
Ukraine.

That was Munich, the spring of 1949. My parents were political refugees,
displaced by war, caught up in a valiant struggle for an independent
Ukraine, victims of Nazi and Soviet oppression. Later they found asylum
in Canada, gave my sister and me chances for a better life, the kind
Europe's tyrants denied them.

Yesterday my father went marching again. Doing so was difficult but, as
he told me on boarding the bus, his life was long ago dedicated to securing
Ukraine's freedom. He won't give up, not now. So, as I wrote these words,
he was in Ottawa, snowflakes and sleet pelting him, and my mother, and
hundreds of others standing beside them, demonstrating solidarity with the
millions in Ukraine who have shown the world that they will have liberty.

Tellingly, the placards carried in Ottawa bore messages not much different
from those hoisted a half century ago. While yesterday's marchers went to
condemn the rigged results of an election universally dismissed as
fraudulent, that was not their sole purpose. For, yet again, they were
demonstrating against the Soviet-schooled satraps of Kyiv and their Moscow
masters, a collective of parasites who, in decades past, engorged themselves
on Ukraine's wealth. Pining for "the good old days," when they ingested
luxuries while trapping their captive nations behind an Iron Curtain, these
scoundrels were spewed up only when their man, Viktor Yanukovych,
was about to loose power.

Knowing their fate is tied to his they reacted, deploying henchmen and
hooligans to stuff ballot boxes, corrupt whomever they could. So panicked
were they that they did not even bother to hide their frenetic scurrying.
They perpetrated multiple deceits, openly, throughout Ukraine. A vomit
from the past, they are still at it as I write, trying desperately to
somehow steal power from the people.

I am now certain that all of them should have been expunged after the
Soviet Empire exfoliated, in 1991, just as the Nazis were after the war.
The Reds never could become democrats. In truth, there was never much
difference between Black and Red fascism, save for the latters' more
remarkable record of mass murder. We were too forgiving. So we have
a Russia in which an ex-KGB-man turned president, Vladimir Putin,
recently honoured a Chekist killer, Felix Derzhinsky, with a new statue
in Moscow. Scarcely any international outrage was expressed. Imagine
what would have been said if a German chancellor accepted a statue of
Heinrich Himmler in Berlin.

Not surprisingly, the mood among Ukrainian Canadians is sombre, if
determined. Over the days ahead many will speak up for a country that
will soon either embrace Europe or slide back to certain perdition. What
is different, however, is that Ukraine's champions won't be of my father's
age, or even mine. The next generation has taken charge in Canada, and
over there. The young have mounted the barricades and they are the future,
whatever happens. That makes them unstoppable. Yanukovych and his
bussed-in buggers aren't.

What can Canada do? We have already recognized that a majority voted
for Viktor Yuschenko. Unquestionably, he was democratically elected
president. Now we must isolate Yanukovych and the ringleaders of his
November putsch. They know that power brings perks, so we must
deny them their pleasures by freezing their assets. They should not enjoy
our resorts, get treatment in our hospitals, study in our universities, or
claim refugee status when, inevitably, they flee. By trapping them where
they are, making it impossible for them to leave Ukraine unless they slink
away to Russia or Belarus, we leave them surrounded by people who
know what they are, who will, sooner rather than later, bring them down.

In the West we need to round up Yanukovych's agents of influence,
deporting them whence they came. No democratic country should have
any truck with those bent on indulging relic Great Russian imperial
pretensions, imperiling the present and future peace of Europe.

Many hope this crisis will resolve itself through a Rose Revolution, similar
to Georgia's last year, that Yanukovych will yield in the face of over-
whelming protests, as Eduard Shevardnadze did. That view is likely naïve.
Yanukovych is no Shevardnadze. The West must act, urgently, to help
Ukraine's people expectorate the criminal gang that blatantly attempted
to subvert Ukrainian democracy. If we fail a Revolution will do so.
That won't be rosy. -30- [The Action Ukraine Monitoring Service]
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 239: ARTICLE NUMBER TEN
Names for the distribution list always welcome
=========================================================
10. UKRAINE PUSHING POLAND'S BUTTONS
Disputed election rouses the land of Walesa over what people there
see as an unfinished battle against vestiges of the former Soviet Union.

By Jeffrey Fleishman, Times Staff Writer
Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles, CA, Tue, November 30, 2004

WARSAW - As snow and defiance blow through the mass demonstrations
in neighboring Ukraine, Poles remember a generation ago when a man with
a wild mustache and a worker's pride ignited a revolution that transfixed
the
world and led to the fall of communism.

Poles have long enlisted in romantic crusades, and Ukraine's disputed
election between a Moscow-backed candidate and a pro-Western reformer
has roused them over what they see as a dangerous, unfinished battle against
vestiges of the former Soviet Union.

Poland has attempted for years to coax Ukraine from Moscow's influence.
Ukraine is a trading partner and a buffer between the east and Poland's new
place in the European Union. The prospect that an election widely viewed as
fraudulent could give victory to the Kremlin-supported candidate, Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovich, has stirred the dogged Polish spirit and
conjured a bit of nostalgia.

Legislators walk the halls of the Polish Parliament, wearing orange ties and
ribbons to support the adopted color of Ukrainian protesters. Newspapers
are full of impassioned editorials for peaceful change. And, like film
footage
retrieved from a dusty can, television images last week showed former Polish
Solidarity labor leader Lech Walesa in Kiev rallying Ukrainians. His face
was thinner, his mustache grayer, but his words possessed the familiar
rhythm of rebellion.

"You are leading a very difficult struggle," Walesa told tens of thousands
of supporters of opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko in Kiev's
Independence Square. "But I see by your enthusiasm that you are going to
win." He added: "I opposed the Soviet Union and I opposed communism,
and I came out victorious."

The Polish Parliament has passed a resolution appealing for a legitimate
election. "History knows such moments, and we Poles know them, when
the fate of a nation is being weighed. This moment has now come." Polish
President Aleksander Kwasniewski has been attempting to negotiate a
settlement but said there was a "realistic risk" that Ukraine could fracture
into civil conflict.

"The situation in Ukraine is quite dangerous now," said Paulina Szeszula, a
27-year-old secretary in Warsaw. "If the Moscow-backed candidate wins, it
will be bad for Poland. It will mean Ukraine has gone eastern just as we've
joined the European Union. This trouble in Ukraine should be an occasion for
uniting all of Europe."

History and bygone enemies don't easily fade in Poland. Although it has
improved its economy and secured its place in the West, Poland struggles
with its geography and its violent legacy with Moscow. Many Poles consider
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin a wily holdover from the communist era.
They say Russia is intent on instigating mischief in the former Soviet bloc
to diminish U.S. and European influence.

Ukraine's political turmoil was born of a democratic process criticized
by many as flawed. It is different in many ways from the 1980s in Poland
when Walesa, who would later be elected president, waged labor strikes
in Gdansk against the communist regime. The Polish unrest was one in a
litany of developments that ended the Cold War and redrew the map of
Europe. Poles see the Ukraine crisis as symbolic of that struggle, but one
that also threatens the stability along their nation's eastern flank.

"I don't think we've yet to realize how important what's going on in Ukraine
is," said Maciej Czumaj, a university student. "Ukraine is the last European
country before Asia. They're our neighbors, and whatever happens
economically and politically in Kiev affects Poland. This was a sleeping
problem now awakening. "Ukraine needs a Walesa," he added. "Maybe
Yushchenko will be the new Walesa."

A retired Polish military officer, who gave his name only as Tadeusz, said,
"This reminds me of the Solidarity times. Ukraine wants to go west, but we
know what Putin wants. He's tough. Ukraine has to know they have to do this
change on their own. If you do it on your own, with no interference from the
outside, then it's stronger. But if a shot is fired, there will be tragedy."

Kwasniewski and other Polish politicians have been prominent in efforts to
diffuse the standoff. It is another indication that Poland, which joined the
European Union in May, may be a strategic diplomatic player as Europe
expands toward an uneasy Russia. Many Poles relish such a prospect: They
have snapped up tangerines in support of the Ukraine protesters, and last
weekend an orange shawl was draped over the main monument in Gdansk.

"A mass movement has emerged in Ukraine very similar to our Solidarity
movement," said Bogdan Borusewicz, a former Solidarity labor leader. "It
doesn't have a name yet, but we can see that a civic society has raised its
head. Poles have a very important role to play in this because the pressure
of our public opinion can save Ukraine from bloodshed." -30-
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 239: ARTICLE NUMBER ELEVEN
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
11. UKRAINE'S ELECTIONS: THE FORCES IN PLAY (I)

By James Sherr, Conflict Studies Research Centre
Defence Academy of the United Kingdom [1]
Camberly, Surrey, England, Thursday, November 25, 2004

1. The dynamics of revolution have displaced the dynamics of
politics in Ukraine. Whatever the complexity of earlier agendas, the
struggle has now assumed a black and white character. A middle position is
becoming an untenable as it was in Budapest in 1956 or Bucharest in 1989.
Fateful thresholds have been crossed: the immediate declaration of
fraudulent results by the Central Electoral Commission (22 November), the
swearing in of Yushchenko as President (23 November), the official
proclamation of Yanukovych as victor (24 November) and several reports
that Russian armed detachments have arrived in the country.

Since 22 November, large numbers of state functionaries are no longer
playing the parts cast for them.[i] Turbulence extends across eastern
Ukraine. 'Third forces' (e.g. Volodymyr Lytvyn, Speaker of Parliament)
are rapidly losing their ability to shape events. The most legitimate third
force, Oleksandr Moroz, leader of Ukraine's Socialist Party, has warned
that the authorities risk a Romanian revolution rather than a Georgian one
if they do not back down. The alternative could be a suppression of the
opposition far more bloody than that which occurred in Poland in 1981.
The beneficiaries of such a Pyrrhic victory would be obliged to govern
in most of the country as an occupying force.

2. It is important to understand who such an outcome would benefit
and who it would not. It would not benefit Prime Minister Viktor
Yanukovych, who has no more wish to be a 'vassal of Russia' than President
Kuchma. Although he is orientated towards Russia, Yanukovych seeks to
expand relations with the West; although he is no democrat, he seeks a broad
base of support in Ukraine.[ii] But such an outcome would benefit those who
fear the independence of Yanukovych and the strength and ambition of his
so-called 'Donetsk clan'. These include a small number of powerful groups
and individuals in Ukraine (notably but not exclusively Viktor Medvedchuk,
Chief of the President's Administration) and Russia's President, Vladimir
Putin. An isolated Yanukovych, dependent upon them, is a key, albeit hidden
objective of these notional allies. But their overriding objective remains
Yushchenko's defeat.

3. A Yushchenko victory would threaten a system that has afforded
Russia dominance in the CIS and Putin a congenial backdrop to the
construction of the 'administrative vertical' in Russia. A democratic,
Western orientated Ukraine would have reverberations across the CIS
and in Russia itself. Without Ukraine, the Single Economic Space loses
its rationale. The implications of a more open market in this vital energy
transport corridor are highly problematic for Russia's energy giants.[iii]
The prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine would undermine Putin's project
of a 'single security space' in the CIS and would be deeply disturbing to
Russia's Armed Forces. Whilst committed to a strategic partnership with
the West, Putin retains a remorselessly geopolitical view of the world and
equates security with well defined 'zones of interest'. He has developed
Russia's zone of interest as methodically as he has advanced Western
partnership. Even Yushchenko's partial success would call this policy into
question.

4. These concerns explain the intensity of Putin's intervention in
Ukraine as well as his willingness to raise the stakes now that the usual
'administrative resources' have failed. His determination has not been
diminished by US concentration on the 'war on terror', the perceived
importance of Russian cooperation over Iraq, Iran and North Korea and
the West's diminished attentiveness, post-9/11, to developments in Ukraine.
Much as Suez formed the backdrop for Hungary's suppression in 1956,
Iraq is part of the wider geopolitical context surrounding events in
Ukraine,
whether we wish this to be so or not.[iv] During his 12-14 November visit
to Crimea, Putin possibly warned Kuchma that Russia would not accept an
opposition victory. Kuchma emerged very shaken from this meeting. The
possibility of such a warning (reminiscent of that given by Brezhnev to
Jaruzelski in 1981) is given credence by several reports since 23 November
of the deployment of Russian spetsnaz detachments to Ukraine.[v] Their
presence, not to say employment, creates the possibility of division, and
possibly turbulence, within Ukraine's pre-eminent but hitherto unpoliticised
force structure, the Armed Forces.

5. Russian armed intervention, however limited and covert, would not

only multiply dangers already present. It would call into question the
basis of the relationship that the West and Russia have established since
1991. If we seek to avert these disasters, it would be prudent to say so.
President Putin respects clarity, and Europe's interests now demand it.
Without it, there is unlikely to be restraint.

ENDNOTES
[i] In many cities local police and SBU officers have been protecting voters
and demonstrators from hired thugs. Some local police have also set up 'hot
lines' in case Russian spetsnaz are sighted. By 23 November 150 serving
Ukrainian diplomats signed declarations of support for Yushchenko. On the
same date, the SBU reportedly declared its 'neutrality'. Although President
Kuchma dismissed eleven senior regional officials after the first round, and
although Yanukovych's campaign chairman (and Central Bank chairman) Serhiy
Tyhypko, called for the dismissal of 260 more, several city authorities and
at least one regional authority have taken oaths of loyalty to Yushchenko.
[ii] On 24 November, Yanukovych declared: 'I will not accept the results of
the presidential election until it is proved to be me and the Ukrainian
people that they are legitimate and credible in accordance with conditions
set down by the constitution..I need no fictitious victory, a result which
could lead to violence and victims. No position of authority, no matter how
important, is worth a single human life'.
[iii] It is widely reported that Yanukovych expended $600 mn on his campaign
(a sum, incidentally, equivalent to that expended by Bush's campaign in the
United States, whose official GDP is more than 50 times greater than Ukraine
's). Of this sum, $300 mn is reported to have come from Russian sources and
a large portion of this from Russian energy companies.
[iv] It might not be incidental that on 22 November, President Putin
accepted President Bush's proposal to forgive the debts assumed by Iraq
under Saddam Hussein's regime, the largest single portion of which were
owed to the USSR and Russia.
[v] On 23 November, it was reported that a Russian special forces
detachment had flown into the base at Irpin for unspecified deployment. On
24 November, a report from Nasha Ukraina (Yushchenko's political bloc)
stated that 'two Russian aircraft landed at the Kyiv International Boryspil
airport today carrying military personnel of the "Vityaz" special forces
unit. Approximately 1,000 in number, they were transported to Kyiv, but
their whereabouts are unknown'. Colonel Lyashenko, Assistant Commander
of Aviation, who services military aviation at Boryspil, refused orders to
service the aircraft and promptly resigned. Although 1,000 is an
implausibly high figure, Lyashenko's resignation was confirmed by the SBU,
which, however, stated that Russian spetsnaz had not landed at Boryspil.
According to several observers, including former Deputy Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko and Oleksandr Zinchenko (Yushchenko's campaign chairman),
Russian spetsnaz are deployed at the headquarters of the Presidential
Administration
on Bankova Street. According to www.maidan.org (source of some of the
most up-to-date online reports), the full deployment consists of three
special
units armed with machine guns: a Ukrainian spetsnaz unit from Irpin, a
Russian spetsnaz unit and a unit of the Presidential Guard, surrounded by a
cordon of militsia (police) in full riot equipment. According to the same
source, the Ukrainian spetsnaz unit left its post and has 'gone over to
Yushchenko' (23 November). -30-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author's and not necessarily
those of the UK Ministry of Defence.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
James Sherr, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Defence Academy of
the United Kingdom, Camberly, Surrey, England; e-mail:
james.sherr@lincoln.oxford.ac.uk
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
James Sherr has worked on Ukrainian issues for many years especially
in the defence area, including NATO. He is an outstanding analyst and
speaker. He is in much demand as a speaker on issues related to Ukraine.
The Action Ukraine Report appreciates the assistance received from
James Sherr regarding the publication of his articles.
========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 239: ARTICLE NUMBER TWELVE
Letters to the editor are always welcome
========================================================
12. "UKRAINE'S ELECTIONS: THE FORCES IN PLAY (II)"

By James Sherr, Conflict Studies Research Centre
Defence Academy of the United Kingdom [1]
Camberly, Surrey, England, Monday, 29 November, 2004

1. Despite contradictory developments and several promising ones,
the possibility of a violent outcome has increased within the past few days.
The convening of separatist assemblies in three eastern oblasti (regions) is
an ominous development, less indicative of a genuine separatist threat than
a made-to-order pretext for the forceful suppression of Viktor Yushchenko's
followers. As of 23.00 Kyiv time 29 November, there are several unconfirmed
reports that 12-20,000 police, Interior and special purpose forces are
trying to enter/have entered the centre of Kyiv or that they are approaching
the city.
2. On 25 November, the Ukrainian Supreme Court declared that it had
decided to accept an appeal from Yushchenko and adjudicate on the legality
of the elections, until which time the results would have no legal standing
.[i] On 26 November, an EU brokered mission conducted joint discussions with
President Kuchma, Prime Minister Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko. [ii] On
27 November, a considerable majority of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian
parliament) declared the election result illegal[iii]. This train of events
has accelerated defections from the Yanukovych camp (including, most
suspiciously, Yanukovych's campaign manager and National Bank chairman,
Serhiy Tyhypko).[iv] Additionally, components of Kyiv based Ministry of
Interior forces declared their support for Yushchenko. So have former
Minister of Defence Yevhen Marchuk and six generals of the SBU.[v]

3. Against this backdrop, the Kharkiv regional legislature declared
(26 November) that it would adopt self-rule and establish control over
military forces on its territory before accepting orders from the 'extreme
right wing' authority of Yushchenko. On 29 November, a 'Northern Donetsk
All-Ukrainian Congress of Peoples Deputies and Deputies from All Levels'
convened near Luhans'k. The latter assembly was attended not only by Prime
Minister Yanukovych, but the Mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, a major investor
in Crimea, who has long fostered separatism there and a hard, 'chauvinistic'
approach towards the country as a whole. Both assemblies carefully stopped
short of declaring secession.

4. Despite real divisions in the country, these developments, unlike
those in central and western Ukraine, are orchestrated from the top.
Ukraine's regional governors are not elected, but appointed by the
president, power is wielded effectively, and civil society is muzzled.
Whilst the threat of secession serves local interests, actual secession does
not. Kharkiv's authorities feel threatened by the 'Donetsk clan' of
Yanukovych-Akhmetov, as do those of Dnipropetrovsk, who do not support
secession. Akhmetov is in sharp competition with Russian business
interests, and he certainly understands that a secessionist entity would be
almost totally dependent upon Russia. The pro-Yanukovych southern regions
oppose secession, and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (the one region
where separatist sentiment is found) has only raised the issue of 'autonomy'
(which is consistent with its current constitutional status). For these
reasons, many suspect that the latest developments serve a Russian scenario
rather than an eastern Ukrainian one.[vi]

5. President Putin's calculations remain a critical variable. Thus
far, his policy has been based upon a combination of deliberation, delusion
and guile, all underpinned by compelling geopolitical interest. These
interests far outweigh any gains that might be achieved by honest
collaboration with third parties. Putin's greatest delusion, endemic to the
circles who advise him, is the underestimation of Ukrainian national
consciousness and civil society. Deliberation, reflected in the intimate
involvement of Russian 'political technologists' in Ukraine's electoral
fraud, has run into the buffers of these delusions. Now the Kremlin fears
that events are moving out of its control ('we have dropped out of the
circle of active players').[vii] To regain control, it is necessary to
change the game. Secession, the means to this end, launches a new game.

6. If this conclusion is correct, then both Kuchma and Putin will
shift the ground of discussion from democracy and legality to the right of
Ukraine's authorities to 'hold the country together'. Kuchma, a weak but
infinitely supple figure, has already done this. On 29 November, he
declared secession 'unacceptable under any circumstances': a formula
designed (even in the face of a Supreme Court ruling) to provide legitimacy
for a forceful solution. Western governments should be wary of adopting
this language, thereby giving credence to a largely fabricated scenario and
inadvertently providing legitimacy to a course of action that we earnestly
seek to prevent. -30-
ENDNOTES
[i]The hearings, which began on 29 November, are being conducted by the
civil branch of the court, which consists of respected judges thought to be
independent of presidential patronage and pressure.
[ii] The mission comprised Javier Solana (EU High Representative for the
Common Foreign & Security Policy), Jan Kubis (Secretary General of the
OSCE), Alexander Kwasniewski (President of Poland), Valdas Adamkus
(President of Lithuania) and Boris Gryzlov (Chairman of the Russian State
Duma and Putin's Special Representative). The Ukrainian participants
comprised President Kuchma, Prime Minister Yanukovych, Viktor
Yushchenko and Volodymyr Lytvyn (Chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament).
[iii] The first of eleven resolutions, approved by 307 of 391 deputies
present (out of 450), declared that the elections did not convey 'the
general will' of the voters. The second resolution expressing lack of
confidence in the Central Electoral Commission received 270 affirmative
votes.
[iv] Tyhypko has a reputation for inordinate ambition and for sharp and
unprincipled relationships with allies as well as adversaries. He also has
a murky past. At the same time, he is a skilful operator and a very able
economist with an aura of pragmatic modernism and favourable image in some
Western financial circles. Like many who have risen to prominence in the
Ukrainian and Russian financial communities, he has a strong Komsomol
(Communist Youth League) background, and many have questioned how
he emerged almost overnight from an individual of modest means into a
multi-millionaire. Albeit a long-standing rival to Yushchenko, Kuchma has
distrusted him, possibly owing to his back channels to Russian political and
financial circles, and he declined to support his candidature to the
premiership after Yushchenko's dismissal in April 2001. Given this pattern,
it is possible that Tyhypko is preparing the ground to be the regime's
'compromise' candidate if a third round of elections takes place and
Yanukovych is forced to drop out.

[v] These include General Skybynets'kiy, adviser to SBU Chairman Ihor
Smeshko (but now without line responsibilities), General Skipal'skiy
(adviser and a former Deputy SBU Chairman) and four other unnamed general
officers. Whether these are serving officers, advisers or retired officers
is not indicated. For his part, General Smeshko has stated: 'I rule out
any use of force against our own people. The SBU states again that it will
not interfere in political processes'. This posture of studied neutrality
has made it possible for SBU officers sympathetic to the opposition to
provide it with some timely intelligence. Yet there is no open source
indication thus far that the SBU has withdrawn intelligence, security and
communications support from the President, Presidential Administration
and government.
[vi] It is still unclear what role, if any, Russian spetsnaz might play in
this scenario or others. Earlier reports of their presence are given
credence by a carefully detailed compilation of eye-witness accounts in the
respected Russian newspaper, Kommersant, on 29 November. The paper
reiterates earlier reports that one mission of an estimated 800 troops is to
exfiltrate presidential, governmental and SBU documents to Russia. The
article contains highly specific but sporadic accounts of landings and
surface movements of detachments and 'traces' [slediy] of 'Vityaz' special
purpose MVD forces at Gosmotel' aerodrome (near Irpin'), Vasil'kov
military aerodrome near Kyiv and Kyiv Boryspil International Airport.
[vii] The view of Alexei Makarkin, Deputy General Director of the Political
Techniques Centre, Moscow, (Gazeta, 29 November). Other Russian
analysts convey an atmosphere of confusion, setbacks, redeployment of
forces, rethinking of tactics and a determination to fight from new
positions.
According to the respected geopolitician, Aleksandr Dugin, whose views
are regarded sympathetically by the Kremlin, 'a war must be avoided to
the last possible moment. If this becomes impossible, the war must be
won' (RIA Novosti, 29 November).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author's and not necessarily
those of the UK Ministry of Defence.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
James Sherr, Conflict Studies Research Centre, Defence Academy of
the United Kingdom, Camberly, Surrey, England; e-mail:
james.sherr@lincoln.oxford.ac.uk
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
James Sherr has worked on Ukrainian issues for many years especially
in the defence area, including NATO. He is an outstanding analyst and
speaker. He is in much demand as a speaker on issues related to Ukraine.
The Action Ukraine Report appreciates the assistance received from
James Sherr regarding the publication of his articles.
=========================================================
ACTION UKRAINE REPORT-04, No. 239: ARTICLE NUMBER THIRTEEN
Letters to the editor are always welcome
=========================================================
13. "IN SOLIDARITY WITH THE PROTESTERS IN KIEV"

Andrew Stuttaford on Ukraine, National Review Online
New York, New York, Mon, November 29, 2004

New York City, Saturday - In Manhattan, they say, everyone wears black,
but not this Saturday, not in this plaza just across from the U.N. The
demonstrators, perhaps 500, perhaps more, have turned up on this briefly
glorious late autumn day in orange hats, in orange scarves, in orange coats,
in orange sweaters, draped in orange blankets, wearing orange ribbons;
anything, however small, will do so long as it is orange. Baseball cap
advertising Land Rover? No problem. If it's orange, it's fine. Sweatshirt
proclaiming the virtues of Steinway pianos? Why not? It's orange.

Orange flags flutter, orange balloons bob against a clear, lovely sky that
matches the blue on the other flag, pale blue and yellow, which flies this
day. Blue and yellow, the colors of Ukraine, and orange the color of the
movement that might, maybe, finally bring the people of that country the
decent government they have awaited for far too long. "Pora". "It's time."
Indeed it is.

Banners, orange naturally, proclaim the loyalties of the crowd:
"Yuschenko - Yes!"; "A Criminal Should Not Be President."
"Putin, Don't Mess With Ukraine."; "Boston Ukrainians for Yuschenko."
"America and Ukraine Together."; "Kyiv, We're With You."
"Ukrainians Deserve Freedom Just Like You."

Indeed they do. In the 20th century, the people of the Ukraine, a land of
two genocides, the country of Hitler's Babi Yar, and the nation of Stalin's
broken, emptying starving villages, went through the worst that two
totalitarian systems could do to them, the raw death toll, millions after
millions after millions, supplemented by decade after decade after decade
of more selective, careful purges, a cull of the best and the brightest,
generation after generation after generation.

And yet, somehow, Ukraine endured.
But Putin seems to feel little or no remorse for the crimes of his Kremlin
predecessors. There have been no real apologies, and no trials of those
butchers who still survive. As the Russian president looks at those other
far, far larger crowds in orange, the ones gathered for days in Kiev's
Independence Square, he sees, doubtless, only irritants, troublemakers,
hooligans, obstacles to be removed, perhaps even dupes, according to some
in Moscow, of wicked Polish plotters. What he should be seeing are the
countless ghosts of those that went before, victims of that Soviet past that
even now he seems curiously unwilling to confront. That, however, would
take a conscience.

In 1933 (wrote the writer Vasily Grossman) "horses pulled flattop carts
through [Kiev], and the corpses of those who had died in the night were
collected. I saw one such flattop cart with children on it. They were just
as I have described them, thin, elongated faces, like those of dead birds,
with sharp beaks...Some of them were still muttering, and their heads still
turning. I asked the driver about them, and he just waved his hands and
said: "By the time they get where they are being taken they will be silent
too." There was, we should remember, more food in Kiev than anywhere
else in the Ukraine that year. Five, six, seven million died in that
Soviet-made famine, the Holodomor, maybe an even greater number: no
one knows for sure.

Standing in that New York plaza I talk to one of the demonstrators, Marko,
about what's going on. We touch on the past. "My father," he says, "survived
the Holodomor." I look around at some of the older faces in the crowd, and
wonder what they had heard back then, what they knew, what they had lived
through.

Not inappropriately, perhaps, there is behind us a memorial to Raoul
Wallenberg, the Swede who rescued thousands of Jews from wartime Budapest
only to disappear into Stalin's hands. A small plaque reads that on "January
17th, 1945 Raoul Wallenberg was detained by the Soviet government. His fate
remains unknown." Fate unknown. Just another ghost. Not inappropriately,
perhaps, someone in the crowd is carrying a placard showing Putin in a KGB
uniform.

Someone else has a sign announcing that she is from Donetsk, the city that
is the heart of the Ukraine's mainly Russian-speaking east, an area that is
likely to come into sharp focus in coming weeks - exaggerated it may have
been, but there is no doubt that Russia's candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, has
real support in that part of the country. Taras, a friend of mine who's also
at the demonstration, is more optimistic. His father, from Ternopil in
western Ukraine (the city where Viktor Yuschenko had studied as a young
man) had just returned from Kiev. While he was there he'd talked to a few
of the miners who have been shipped in from the East to rally support for
Yanukovych, the second-round "winner." They were O.K. guys, he said,
enjoying an all-expenses, all-vodka trip to the big city with no plans to
stick around for long. We'll see.

But Saturday is not a day for such worries. The likeable crowd, mainly
twenty or thirtysomethings, a blend of recent immigrants, visitors, and the
diaspora, were festive, optimistic, excited, cheering the speeches, the
singers, and the sentiment, pausing only to chant the only name that
counted, the name of their president:

"Yushchenko, Yushchenko, Yushchenko."
He's their hero, their man, their champion, and their best hope for the true
restoration of a squandered independence. In fact, like many politicians
that emerged in the rougher corners of post-Soviet Eastern Europe, Yuschenko
is not free from awkward questions about his past, or the nature of some of
his support, but this is not something that anyone wants to think about this
day.

"Yushchenko, Yushchenko, Yushchenko."
An older woman points to a poster, a standard politician-and-child image,
the usual fluff, and shakes her head sadly. "It's terrible what they've done
to him." The man in the photograph is healthy, good-looking, fortyish. It's
Yuschenko, and the picture was probably taken less than a year ago. His
face looks nothing like the terrible, cratered wreck that it has become, the
product, almost certainly of a poison attack, an attack that has transformed
him into a martyr for the cause, the real cause, he now leads.

The crowd starts to sing a lovely, enchanting tune, verse after verse. They
know the words, and they sing them smiling. "The national anthem?" I ask.
"No", two women say, "It's like a pledge." "What's it called?" Thought.
Pause. Embarrassed looks. "We don't know." And then they start to laugh.
It's time. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Minnesota Chapter, Natalia Yarr, Chairperson
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PUBLISHER AND EDITOR
Mr. E. Morgan Williams, Executive Director, Ukrainian Federation of America
(UFA); Coordinator, The Action Ukraine Coalition (AUC);
Senior Advisor, Government Relations, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation (USUF);
Advisor, Ukraine-U.S. Business Council, Washington, D.C.;
Publisher and Editor, www.ArtUkraine.com Information Service (ARTUIS),
P.O. Box 2607, Washington, D.C. 20013,
Tel: 202 437 4707, E-mail: morganw@patriot.net
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