"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT - AUR"
An International Newsletter
The Latest, Up-To-Date
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary
"Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"
THE WORLD REACTS TO EVENTS IN UKRAINE
A series of international articles
"ORANGE TAKES ON A DEEPER COLOR"
"UKRAINE: MR YUSHCHENKO'S LOST MONTHS"
"DISILLUSION IN UKRAINE"; "ORANGE ALERT"
"ORANGE TURMOIL"; "PEELING AWAY THE REVOLUTION"
"UKRAINE'S ORANGE FLAME, DIMMED"; "BITTER ORANGES"
"THE ORANGE REVOLUTIONARIES LET THE SIDE DOWN"
"IN THE UKRAINE: FREEDOM'S BITTER FRUIT"
"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT - AUR" - Number 555
E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
Published in Kyiv, Ukraine, SATURDAY, September 10, 2005
--------INDEX OF ARTICLES--------
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"
1. "ORANGE TAKES ON A DEEPER COLOR"
People power keeps finger on pulse of Ukraine's democratic process
Be apart of the team or move on!
ANALYSIS: Stefan Romaniw OAM, Chairman
Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organizations (AFUO)
Writing from Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
Published by The Action Ukraine Report (AUR)
Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, September 10, 2005
2. PRESIDENT DISMISSES UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT IN
ATTEMPTED DISPLAY OF STRENGTH
ANALYSIS: by Ben Wetherall, Analyst, Global Insight
Waltham, Massachusetts, Friday, September 9, 2005
3. POLISH PRESIDENT: UKRAINIAN EVENTS NO SETBACK: DEMOCRACY,
MARKET REFORMS OR PRO-EUROPEAN, PRO-ATLANTIC MOVEMENT
PAP news agency, Warsaw, in English 1657 gmt 8 Sep 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
4. POLISH ECONOMY MINISTER HOPES FOR BETTER ECONOMIC
TIES WITH NEW UKRAINIAN CABINET
Polish entrepreneurs were unexpectedly deprived of privileges
PAP news agency, Warsaw, in English 1519 gmt 8 Sep 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
5. "UKRAINE: MR YUSHCHENKO'S LOST MONTHS"
EDITORIAL: The Independent, London, United Kingdom, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
6. "DISILLUSION IN UKRAINE"
EDITORIAL, Irish Times, Ireland, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
7. ORANGE REVOLUTION GRINDS TO A HALT, LOSES ITS LUSTRE
AS YUSHCHENKO SACKS ENTIRE GOVERNMENT
ANALYSIS: Andrew Osborn in Moscow, Belfast Telegraph
Belfast, Ireland, Friday, September 09, 2005
8. "ORANGE ALERT"
Only an end to corruption can pull Ukraine out of crisis
EDITORIAL: Times On Line, London, UK, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
9. YUSHCHENKO AXES GOVERNMENT, ORANGE COALITION UNRAVELS
Seven months after taking power in Ukraine, President fires government
By Graeme Smith, Globe and Mail
Toronto, Canada, Friday, September 9, 2005
10. "ORANGE TURMOIL"
Is Yushchenko's Democratic dream hopeless?
COMMENTARY: By Nikolas K. Gvosdev
Editor of The National Interest
The National Review, USA, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
11. "PEELING AWAY THE REVOLUTION"
COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS: By Robin Sheperd
The Wall Street Journal, New York, NY, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
12. "UKRAINE'S ORANGE FLAME, DIMMED"
EDITORIAL: New York Times, New York, NY, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
13. "BITTER ORANGES"
EDITORIAL: Financial Times, London, UK, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
14. YUSHCHENKO FINALLY ACTS TO CLEAN UP HIS GOVERNMENT
Tymoshenko's out as Ukrainian prime minister
COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS: By Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol 2, Issue 167
The Jamestown Foundation, Wash, D.C., Fri, Sep 9, 2005
15. MOSCOW SAYS SITUATION IN UKRAINE IS DOMESTIC AFFAIR
RIA NOVOSTI, Moscow, Russia, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
16. JAVIER SOLANA UNDERSCORES IMPORTANCE OF UKRAINIAN
LEADERS STICKING TO REFORMATION COURSE
Ukrinform, Brussels, Belgium, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
17. SALE OF UKRAINE STEEL COMPANY SEEN AS UNSTOPPABLE
By Andrew Hurst, Reuters, Moscow, Russia, Fri Sep 9, 2005
18. "THE ORANGE REVOLUTIONARIES LET THE SIDE DOWN"
The Economist Global Agenda, London, UK, Thu, 8 September 2005
19. "IN THE UKRAINE: FREEDOM'S BITTER FRUIT"
NEWS ANALYSIS: By Jason Bush
Business Week magazine, USA, Fri, Sep, 9, 2005
=============================================================
1. ORANGE TAKES ON A DEEPER COLOR
People power keeps finger on pulse of Ukraine's democratic process
Be apart of the team or move on!
ANALYSIS: Stefan Romaniw OAM, Chairman
Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organizations (AFUO)
Writing from Kyiv, Ukraine
Published by The Action Ukraine Report (AUR)
Kyiv, Ukraine, Friday, 9 September 2005
Ukraine is undergoing its next phase in entrenching democracy.
Having been in Ukraine during the Orange Revolution and now lived here
the past three months, building Australia -Ukraine relations, it is exciting
to see the deepening of the color Orange.
As I write, I am watching BBC. Ironically an advertisement about Ukraine is
playing 'We invest in Ukraine, we are building Ukraine. We are making a
great contribution. We are changing the system - We are doing it as a
team" - goes the paid ad by a group of investors CFK, advertising their
major projects here.
The President in his statement demanded the same in Government - a team
effort.
The dismissal of the Ukrainian Government and other officials by President
Yuschenko is another step in getting the Government administrative processes
right and will provide a colorful background to the March 2006 Parliamentary
elections.
The dismissal is not because of people's no confidence in Government or in
the President - It is an opportunity clean up a mess before it became too
great, a good opportunity to move leadership that was not in the spirit of
the Orange Revolution, putting the President, PM, Cabinet and others on
public notice
Ambitions, losing sight of the morals and ethics, accusations of alleged
corruption associated with some have found a reaction - in a very public
way.
A new way of dealing with issues.
"The Orange Revolution was not Yushchenko or Tymoshenko - it was us, the
people, taking a message and putting those elected on notice "says our
neighbor Luba in our Lesia Ukrajinka Blv apartment.
Head of State Olexandr Zinchenko after formally resigning at the weekend
called a press conference and started the alarm bells ringing.
Being here for a longer period, having access to different levels of
Government, business and community you can start making observations.
On our arrival in June it was obvious we found a country that was concerned
as to where it was heading. Leadership, sound policies and implementation of
Orange Revolution promises were real issues with many people within society
"Where are our Health, Education and reformed Justice Systems, Why is there
no tax reform? Why are those who were corrupt not in jail? Why are some
still paying bribes? Where is the leadership heading?" were often responses
to the question -Have things changed?
In our own way in a meeting with President Yushchenko in August, as part of
Ukrainian World Congress delegation, we indicated that there maybe a problem
in what information he receives, as we spoke about the issue of access to
the President.
He immediately reacted to rectify the problem, but seemed amazed that there
was an issue - He was open to meeting with the Diaspora - Why didn't he know
we wanted to meet with him?
This is possibly a miniscule example of the problem - Who was telling the
President what and for what reason?
Having associated with the Zinchenko group the message of dissatisfaction
was constant. But the strategy of alerting the nation without damaging the
President was the issue.
Zinchenko grabbed the first opportunity as people returned from vacation to
make his statement accusing some of his colleagues of abusing their powers
for personal gain. "This as not what Orange Revolution wanted and demanded
from us "Zinchenko said
I attended the Zinchenko media conference and it was obvious that some who
led the Revolution were uneasy - Someone needed to act and act now.
There is a new Ukraine and it is becoming very different.
The challenge for the President was - Would he act and stop the rot?
Disunity is a non workable situation, particularly at the highest levels of
Government.
I spoke to Zinchenko on Tuesday, a day after his press conference and
suggested as others had that he now had to provide evidence if he wanted
to be a creator of history or its simply one of its sacrifices. He has now
lodged these claims with the Courts.
Yushchenko in his statement stressed that to drive Ukraine today there has
to be a team effort. There must be commitment and the focus needs to be on
Ukraine. Personal or narrow party politics were not part go his agenda.
The irony is that Yushchenko dismissed the Government that he supported and
praised, even up to recently. . It was dismissed at the same time as others
were being accused of corruption. All thrown into one basket. The
accusations of corruption before the courts must not be lost in wash.
Being here three months I am convinced that the New Ukraine is here - There
needs to be fine tuning and this has commenced.
There are investment opportunities; younger members of society are now
working at very professional levels, others have started businesses and have
different expectations. They are the product of 14 years of independence and
more open society and most importantly have access to information and
knowledge.
Younger people's exposure to the western world, understanding how democracy
works and no longer being bluffed by Government has forced Government to
take steps.
At the soccer on Wednesday night - Ukraine vs. Turkey - the noise and
support for Ukraine's team was incredible. MCG, Telstra Dome can be loud,
but nothing like this. Blue and Yellow colors - Ukraine chants, the streets
filled with young people proud of their country. This is a complete reversal
to what was prior 1991 or even 1995.
The new generation of Ukrainians - The Ukrainian and non Ukrainian
background population are proud of their Ukraine - They will not allow
anything but growth to happen.
Yuschenko appears to understand this.
Last week in Lviv, I had the opportunity to be with Monash University Vice
Chancellor Prof Richard Larkins OA who signed a Memorandum of
Understanding with Lviv University. This was September 1, the first day of
the Education year. In Ivan Franko Park thousands of students lined up for
the ceremony in their honor.
Former Ukraine Ambassador to Australia Dr Mischenko addressed students
and said the future President Ukraine may very well be in our midst. Prof
Larkins spoke of the great opportunity to be part of the Orange Revolution
and the future that lies ahead.
On Wednesday morning the day before Yushchenko announced changes I
met with one of Yulia Tymoshenko's top advisers - a young, energetic, highly
educated man who outlined his vision for Ukraine - Policies, international
presence, centre of Europe, development of Ukraine were high on his list.
The fact that there has been reorganization and what is being claimed to be
harsh action by some, will do one of two things - Give Ukraine a deeper tone
of Orange or bring it back to its primary colors - Red and yellow and you
can discern for yourself their significance.
But more importantly it is a reaction to what people have demanded - open
and transparent and unified Government.
In his press conference President Yushchenko explained the need for change.
"We are not interested in solo players, those who can only see themselves.
Government officials are here to serve the Nation "President Yushchenko said
The question that needs to be asked - If the President had knowledge of the
situation, why did he not act earlier? Leadership is crucial at this time.
The Nation says we want action, not words - we will not tolerate anything
less is what we hear regularly at all levels and places - Kyiv, Charkiv,
Lviv, Donetsk, and Ternopil and others.
Ukraine is now moving. The Revolution has set new moral parameters. Nine
months after the election they continue to have meaning for people - Issues
of opportunity, employment, and reasonable wages. education, health,
security are the issues- Not personal gain at Government level.
What are some of the ramifications of Yushchenko's actions?
I met with the Ministry of Culture to finalize details of a cultural
exchange program between Ukraine - and Australia. The new generation
senior bureaucrat commented "Don't worry about the changes at the top.
We now have a plan and we are determined to build Ukraine and we will
see it through "
In meetings with business people last night the comments were "Let them
do what they need - Take a message that says - Let us get on with building
Ukraine - We need legislation not interference - They know that "
"We are building a New Ukraine- They better understand that." How
refreshing!
Charkiv Governor Achmov spoke confidently on TV last night that the new
changes will only enhance Ukraine's development. Charkiv, the State that was
going to break away from Ukraine during the election, that didn't allow
Yushchenko's plane to land during one of the elections- now has 6 parties
involved in governing the region, All stand behind Ukraine. "I have spoken
to other Governors today who say this is a natural administrative building
step" Achmov said
The message in Ukraine for those who are in leadership is clear - We
demand an ethical, moral, professional Ukraine that responds to the people!
Administrative crisis?
There is none as acting Ministers continue their work - Former PM Tymoshenko
met with her colleagues to thank them and take one final photo. The new
acting PM Yuri Yekhanurov met with the same Ministers an hour later.
Currency rates are unaffected, the new Head of State Oleh Rybarchuk has
settled in well.
The catalyst to some of this activity Oleksandr Zinchenko has taken his
evidence to the courts. Those who are accused have stepped down until the
courts and special commission investigate the allegations.
Prognosis -
Will Tymoshenko take on an opposition role? Will she come back in the next
Parliament as PM with huge majority to allow Government to function
effectively? Will all this and other things happen? Do some people feel
cheated that they have been placed in the same category as those accused
of corruption?
Our neighbor Luba responds this way to those in power -
"Get on with the job we empowered you to do - I am not interested in
political games, promises or intriguing situations. I want action. I have
lived in this apartment for 40 years of my 50 years. I want change for me
and for my children and grandchild - All seven of us live in this one
apartment - otherwise the next Revolution will be at your expense "
That's the message - Don't fool with Luba!
All in a week's work in a country that has made Orange more popular than
oranges themselves. Now is the time for a deeper, more mature Orange!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stefan Romaniw OAM is Chairman of the Australian Federation of Ukrainian
Organizations (AFUO) and former Chairman of the Victorian Multicultural
Commission .He is in Kyiv with his wife for a 3 month project to strengthen
Australian Ukraine relations. Ukraine contact +380 97343 0965
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTE: I have corresponded with Stefan Romaniw for some time but only
met him last week in Kyiv. He is doing outstanding work for Ukraine.
Thanks to Stefan for taking the time to write this special, first-hand,
on-the-ground article, and sending it to us for publication. If you want
to write to Stefan about his article please send the message to us and
we will forward it on to him. EDITOR
=============================================================
2. PRESIDENT DISMISSES UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT IN
ATTEMPTED DISPLAY OF STRENGTH
Here is the coverage from Global Insight,
one of the world's leading economic forecasters.
ANALYSIS: by Ben Wetherall, Analyst, Global Insight
Waltham, MA, Friday, September 9, 2005
President Viktor Yushchenko dismissed the entire Ukrainian government
today after a protracted cabinet power struggle had jeopardised the
credibility of the reformist government.
GLOBAL INSIGHT PERSPECTIVE
Significance After a widening corruption scandal highlighted the deep
divisions within the Ukrainian government and had threatened to
overshadow the passage of key reforms, President Yushchenko has made
the bold move of removing the entire government.
Implications Spurred into action by the resignation of Petro Poroshenko,
the powerful National Security and Defence Council secretary who remains
at the epicentre of the corruption allegations, the dismissal of the
entire government, including the ambitious Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko, is a bold move by a man who has become renowned for
being averse to making tough political decisions.
OUTLOOK
The removal of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko will be welcomed within
the European Union (EU) and should improve the investment climate which
had been damaged by questions over the extent of corruption within the
government and over the way in which legal violations in the
privatisation sphere are being dealt with.
Nevertheless, with crucial parliamentary elections scheduled to take place
in March 2006, it will be very difficult for President Yushchenko to co-opt
both electoral blocs of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko on a unified platform.
PRESIDENT TAKES THE PLUNGE
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko took the extraordinary step of
dismissing the entire government today, some seven months after they
were swept into office on the back of an unprecedented display of people
power following the December 2004 presidential elections.
Tensions within the cabinet had been simmering away even before the
formation of the government at the beginning of the year, but the
resignation on 3 September of Oleksandr Zinchenko, the Secretary of
State, had threatened to envelop the government in a wider political crisis
that had the potential to derail President Yushchenko's reforms.
Following the earlier announcement that the powerful National Security
and Defence Council secretary Petro Poroshenko had resigned,
Yushchenko arranged a special press conference where he confirmed
that he had removed the entire government from their posts.
Yushchenko declared that he had been forced into the decision by the
continued lack of 'team spirit and faith' within the cabinet adding that he
had hoped that the power struggle between Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko would be a 'temporary thing, and
as they get down to work they would have no time left for quarrels'.
However, Yushchenko said in an effort to 'halt the disappointment in
society and make sure that ideals of the Orange Revolution are not
cast into doubt' it was necessary to draw a line in the sand.
Zinchenko had singled out Petro Poroshenko and a group of associates,
accusing them of establishing an 'information blockade' around
Yushchenko in order to maximise their political power for personal
capital gains (see Ukraine: 6 September 2005: Former Ukrainian
Presidential Aide Denounces Officials, Accuses Security Chief of
Systemic Corruption).
While the accusations against Poroshenko are centred on the disputed
sale of the Nikopol ferroalloys plant in eastern Ukraine (where he stands
accused of brokering a deal whereby Viktor Pinchuk, the controversial
Ukrainian 'oligarch' and son-in-law of former President Kuchma would
gain a majority stake in the plant, with Poroshenko securing a lucrative
bribe), Zinchenko's comments are merely the latest in a long line of
complaints.
Having effectively overthrown the old regime and secured power by
running on an anti-corruption ticket, the stain of corruption within his own
cabinet had led to a growing belief that far from being a reformist
government willing to carry out painful reforms, the administration is
merely a mirror image of the discredited Kuchma government.
This, allied to Yushchenko's leadership style, which hitherto had been
characterised by a lack of conviction to make the tough political decisions,
had contributed to a notable loss of enthusiasm among the electorate for
the government's reforms. According to the Razumkov polling centre, only
51% of those Ukrainians who consider themselves 'middle class' backed
the reforms.
Considering that more than 70% of Ukrainians supporting the Orange
Revolution were from this socio-economic group, this is a major loss in
the revolutionary momentum.
In addition to the allegations of corruption within the cabinet and the
Poroshenko-Tymoshenko power struggle, Yushchenko has had to
negotiate growing disquiet over the way in which legal violations in the
privatisation sphere are being dealt with. From the start, it was clear
that Ukraine was planning to 'reprivatise' some of the companies that
had been sold under the previous regime for knock-down prices as the
result of insider deals and overly restricted bidding. However, the
international investor community felt comfortable only with a clearly
defined, and preferably short, list of such companies.
The government, on the other hand, has been deluged with claims from
people with all sorts of privatisation-related grievances. Tymoshenko
caused alarm when she mentioned the possibility of 3,000 privatisation
revisions, whereas Yushchenko has attempted to placate potential foreign
investors by suggesting there would be only be an estimated 30
re-privatisations. Tymoshenko's belligerent rhetoric only served to
alienate those Russian investors that were willing to invest in Ukraine.
OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS
Removing the entire government is a major gamble for President
Yushchenko, but it was becoming increasingly obvious that it was one
that he had to take. Poroshenko's position was virtually untenable and
his removal would have eroded the carefully crafted system of
counterweights established during the creation.
If he dismissed Poroshenko he would have also have to remove
Tymoshenko and all of the other members of the cabinet that formed
a network of alliances that has been established around the two primary
figures in the government.
In many ways, taking the decision has left Yushchenko in a position of
strength; he has gone a long way towards dispelling the belief that he
is unable to take hard political decisions and has demonstrated himself
to be a 'man of action' unwilling to let personal relationships stand in
the way of the necessary reforms.
This has been further demonstrated by appointment of Oleg Rybachuk as
Chief of Staff. Rybachuk is a close ally of Yushchenko and an ardent
believer that Ukraine's future lies with deeper ties with the European
Union (EU). The respective governments of the EU will also welcome
the decision to remove the administration and it should improve the
investment climate.
Nevertheless, while Yushchenko may be lauded in Brussels and with
foreign investors, the removal of the government has added to the
uncertainty surrounding the ongoing debates on a series of bills that
need to be passed before Ukraine can join the World Trade Organization
(WTO) - which remains the primary goal of the current administration.
The administration had set a target for WTO accession before the end of
2005, but the legislation is having a rough ride through parliament. The
Communists have attempted to capitalise on the crisis and will continue
to block the passage of the legislation, which includes a CD Piracy bill
which has hitherto been thwarted by Speaker of the Parliament Volodymyr
Lytvyn.
More importantly, the removal of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko from the
government seriously undermines Yushchenko's attempts to galvanise their
respective electoral blocs under a unified banner ahead of the March
2006 parliamentary election, the outcome of which is crucial to the
continuation of the Orange Revolution's reforms. -30-
===========================================================
Gavin Knight, Head of Communications, International
gavin.knight@globalinsight.com, http://www.globalinsight.com
=============================================================
3. POLISH PRESIDENT: UKRAINIAN EVENTS NO SETBACK: DEMOCRACY,
MARKET REFORMS OR PRO-EUROPEAN, PRO-ATLANTIC MOVEMENT
PAP news agency, Warsaw, in English 1657 gmt 8 Sep 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
WARSAW - President Aleksander Kwasniewski told journalists Thursday that
his Ukrainian counterpart, Viktor Yushchenko in a phone talk acquainted him
with the background of the current government crisis in Ukraine.
Kwasniewski said that it appears from Yushchenko's words that changes in
Ukraine are nothing unusual, and "we share this opinion", Kwasniewski said.
These changes are an expression of difficult processes which we know in
Poland, connected with the political and economic transformation, the Polish
president told a press conference. At the same time, they are one of
elements of the current campaign prior to the parliamentary elections due in
March 2006, he added. Kwasniewski said that Prime Minister Marek Belka
talked with the outgoing Ukrainian prime minister on Thursday.
"The events in Ukraine should not be disregarded but also should not be
exaggerated," Kwasniewski said. He is convinced that the changes in the
Ukrainian government do not mean a step back from democratisation, market
reforms and pro-European and pro-Atlantic orientation.
According to Kwasniewski, the Thursday developments in Ukraine should not
change EU's policy vis-a-vis that country, especially as regards support for
Ukrainian EU aspirations. The president expressed such stand in a phone talk
with Javier Solana, EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and
Security Policy.
Kwasniewski stressed that Polish-Ukrainian relations will not suffer because
of the governmental changes in Ukraine, neither should be corrected in any
way. Acting Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov has Polish roots, is "friendly
towards Poland" and has since long supported economic cooperation between
the two countries.
Kwasniewski also stressed that Ukraine is Poland's strategic partner and
political relations between the two countries have a "model character on the
European Union scale". The president praised economic cooperation between
Poland and Ukraine and in this context he mentioned Ukrainian investments in
Warsaw's Zeran car factory and in Czestochowa steelworks.
The Polish president assured in conclusion that Ukraine may "count on Poland
today and in the future". -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring]
=============================================================
4. POLISH ECONOMY MINISTER HOPES FOR BETTER ECONOMIC
TIES WITH NEW UKRAINIAN CABINET
Polish entrepreneurs were unexpectedly deprived of privileges
PAP news agency, Warsaw, in English 1519 gmt 8 Sep 05
BBC Monitoring Service, UK, in English, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
KRYNICA - Economy Minister Jacek Piechota hopes that Poland's economic
cooperation with the new Ukrainian government will be better than in the
case of the dismissed Yuliya Tymoshenko's cabinet.
Piechota recalled several problems in contacts with the Tymoshenko cabinet,
when Polish entrepreneurs were unexpectedly deprived of privileges in
special economic zones in Ukraine where they invested some 200m dollars.
Equally surprising for Poland was Timoshenko's decision to halt without
warning oil supplies to Poland's southern refineries.
Piechota noted that Ukraine's new [interim] prime minister has economic and
administrative experience which is a good sign for future cooperation with
Poland. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
=============================================================
5. "UKRAINE: MR YUSHCHENKO'S LOST MONTHS"
EDITORIAL: The Independent
London, United Kingdom, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
How distant a memory the euphoria of December in Kiev's Independence
Square seems now. Yesterday, at the start of the autumn political term, the
hero of that 'orange revolution', Viktor Yushchenko, dismissed his
government.
Last weekend, his chief aide resigned, complaining bitterly that too much of
the old government's corruption had been carried over into the new.
Oleksandr Zinchenko's departure may have triggered President Yushchenko's
decision to start afresh, but the rot had set in months before. In fact, the
wonder may be that the government lasted as long as it did. It was deeply
divided from the start.
Back in January, Mr Yushchenko had to choose. He could either appoint the
Independence Square Pasionaria, Yulia Tymoshenko, to head his government "
so preserving the revolutionary alliance and the semblance of a united
leadership " or he could face up to the real political differences between
himself and Ms Tymoshenko, and risk pushing this charismatic figure into
opposition.
He chose the first course, and his alliance has now foundered on what have
long been irreconcilable differences. Ms Timoshenko, a successful
entrepreneur who wanted to translate her new-found idealism into reversing
the previous government's corrupt privatisations, fast became a liability.
Where Mr Yushchenko needed coalitions and consensus to get anything done,
her often ill-considered pronouncements had the opposite effect.
Mixed messages came from the new administration almost from the start.
Although popular expectations of change were sky-high after the peaceful
regime-change, few reforms were enacted. By the summer, there was drift at
the top and growing disillusionment among the voters. Those opposed to the
'orange revolution' were already organising for parliamentary elections next
spring.
It is to Mr Yushchenko's credit that he has now moved decisively to nominate
a new prime minister " a technocrat with no known political ambitions " and
insisted on teamwork as a priority. He has also removed some of those
suspected of corruption. But he was late in tackling the charges. Promises
to purge graft had been one of the great causes of the revolution; the
voters are entitled to be disappointed that he did not act before.
Popular disillusionment was always a risk after the heady month of December.
Realistically, Mr Yushchenko had just a few months to convince people that
he could revive the economy and reorientate Ukraine towards the West. That
he has largely squandered this honeymoon will make his efforts to get an
'orange' parliament elected much more difficult than they might otherwise
have been. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
=============================================================
6. "DISILLUSION IN UKRAINE"
EDITORIAL, Irish Times, Ireland, Fri, Sep 09, 2005
It has proved much easier for Ukraine's reformers to win power than to wield
it effectively. Yesterday's decision by President Viktor Yushchenko to sack
the entire government led by prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, appointed by
him after last year's Orange revolution, followed a growing unravelling of
its authority over recent days and weeks.
A welter of corruption allegations and personal feuds raises the question
whether this was a genuinely reformist government or one in which a previous
oligarchy staged a coup to rearrange itself.
Both Ms Tymoshenko and her bitter rival Petro Poroshenko, president of the
powerful National Security Council, whom she outmanoeuvred to become prime
minister after last December's rerun elections, became rich during the 1990s
and helped finance the revolution.
Their continuing rivalry has been a running theme since then, much of it
having to do with efforts to reprivatise 3,000 state companies sold off in
the 1990s and rows over the price of oil sales to Russia. This crisis was
provoked when Mr Yushchenko's chief of staff resigned last weekend,
accusing Mr Poroshenko of corruption and demanding that he be sacked.
This left Mr Yushchenko with little option but to dismiss the government,
telling Ukrainians that it is necessary "to halt the disappointment of
society and make sure the ideals of the democratic revolution are not cast
into doubt".
A caretaker prime minister has been appointed between now and general
elections in March. The erstwhile united reformist group is likely to be
split, leaving open the possibility that the pro-Russian ruling group it
replaced might make a comeback.
This is a bitter blow to the hopes expressed in the mass mobilisations
against electoral fraud last November and the parliamentary agreement and
supreme court ruling which led to the elections being rerun on December
26th.
In a turnout of 75 per cent Mr Yushchenko defeated Viktor Yanukovich and
went on to appoint Ms Tymoshenko rather than attempt a power-sharing
arrangement with his foes.
Although his powers as president have been reduced he retained the right to
nominate and dismiss the government. But he has been less than effective
since then, while Ms Tymoshenko has proved unable to resolve inherited
problems and rivalries.
It remains to be seen whether this sorry record will provoke another round
of street mobilisation or make for deeper popular disillusion with politics.
Ukraine's 48 million people face both east and west and deserve better of
their leaders after a genuine effort to change their political fate. -30-
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7. ORANGE REVOLUTION GRINDS TO A HALT, LOSES ITS LUSTRE
AS YUSHCHENKO SACKS ENTIRE GOVERNMENT
Andrew Osborn in Moscow, Belfast Telegraph
Belfast, Ireland, Friday, September 09, 2005
Ukraine's "orange revolution" has lost its lustre, with President Viktor
Yushchenko sacking his entire government after its own members accused
one another of sleaze, cronyism and debilitating infighting.
His sudden decision came just eight months after he and his team came to
office promising to stamp out the gross corruption which had bedevilled
previous administrations.
Julia Tymoshenko, the country's photogenic and fiery Prime Minister, lost
her job and was swiftly replaced with an interim, Russian-born premier, Yuri
Yekhanurov, who has the job of forming a new government.
Entrenched differences between Ms Tymoshenko and another millionaire
minister, Petr Poroshenko, the Secretary of the National Security Council,
were said to have brought the revolution to a halt and led to internal
intrigues that paralysed decision-making.
Mykola Tomenko, a deputy prime minister who resigned yesterday before the
government's dismissals, said relations between the two had deteriorated to
the point where there were in effect two governments, one run by Mr
Poroshenko and the other by Ms Tymoshenko.
A close ally of Ms Tymoshenko said he would work to realise "the second
phase of the orange revolution".
"I don't want to bear collective responsibility for people who have created
a system of corruption," he said. "Today the President does not know what's
going on in the country."
Speaking on state television, Mr Yushchenko, who has himself recently faced
embarrassing questions about his son's high-rolling lifestyle, said he took
the decision to disband the government as a last resort. "We are witnessing
a paradox. Many new faces have come to power but the face of power has
not changed," he said, referring to the previous regime of the Soviet-era
apparatchik Leonid Kuchma which was widely regarded as being riddled
with cronyism and corruption.
"We need to halt disappointment in society and make sure that the ideals [of
the orange revolution] are not cast into doubt." Mr Yushchenko said he had
ordered an investigation into allegations that several members of his
outgoing government were corrupt. He added, enigmatically, that the
accusations were "groundless but very strong" and deserved close scrutiny.
Mr Poroshenko was the most high-profile figure to be accused of wrongdoing.
Oleksandr Zinchenko, Mr Yushchenko's chief-of staff and the architect of the
orange revolution, resigned from the government on 3 September, accusing
Mr Poroshenko, a confectionery millionaire, of using his post to enrich
himself, help wealthy businessmen and generally "usurp power". Mr
Poroshenko denied the allegations and resigned before the government
was sacked so as not, he said, to obstruct an inquiry.
Mr Yushchenko conceded that ordinary Ukrainians had come to see the
revolution as little more than a means of transferring wealth from an old
elite to a new one. He singled out the case of the Nikopol steel plant,
which is being wrestled from Viktor Pinchuk, an oligarch tied to the old
elite, so that it can be handed back to the state.
Its new directors have been accused of having links to a bank run by wealthy
businessmen said to be close to Ms Tymoshenko. Though she strongly denies
any such link, Mr Yushchenko said he was unhappy with the transfer. It was,
he said, "falling into the hands of one band of thugs from another instead
of being returned to the state".
Ms Tymoshenko is keeping her powder dry until today when she is expected
to offer her own view of recent events. Her spokesman was busy last night
denying reports that she had allegedly said she felt betrayed by Mr
Yushchenko. Parliamentary elections are due in March. -30-
=============================================================
8. "ORANGE ALERT"
Only an end to corruption can pull Ukraine out of crisis
EDITORIAL: Times On Line, London, UK, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
President Yushchenko’s dramatic dismissal yesterday of the entire Ukrainian
Government is a drastic step which many of his compatriots believe he should
have taken months ago.
Almost from the start of the Orange Revolution, the tensions between the
pock-marked President and Yuliya Tymoshenko, the ambitious firebrand Prime
Minister, have threatened to derail the reforms promised to the thousands of
protesters in Kiev last November.
The President’s hand was forced, however, by the sudden resignation at the
weekend of his chief of staff, amid accusations of wholesale corruption
within the Government. This was followed by the departure of Petro
Poroshenko, the main figure accused and head of the Defence Council,
appointed to balance the Prime Minister but who had been running a virtual
parallel administration.
By yesterday the blazing rows, infighting, and mounting public dismay had
made normal government impossible. Mr Yushchenko acted before chaos and
cynicism engulfed his revolution.
He acted correctly. Many of last year’s hopes for an end to corruption in
Ukraine — regularly rated by outsiders to be among the worst on any
international index — have been dashed by evidence of continued malfeasance,
dubious business dealings, nepotism and favouritism. In addition, slowing
economic growth, rising inflation and lack of consistency on key policy
issues have tarnished the Government’s image further.
What has confused voters is that most of the disagreements appear to stem
not from ideological differences — there is little to distinguish Mr
Yushchenko’s views on Europe, energy policy and relations with Moscow from
those of Mrs Tymoshenko — but from personal antipathies and thwarted
ambition.
She is by far the more charismatic. It was she who rallied the crowds behind
the revolution and articulated the rhetoric. But after her bloc of
supporters joined Mr Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party, she was reluctant to
play second fiddle. She used the office of prime minister to expand her
influence and powers, often ignoring or contradicting the policies of the
President.
In other ways, also, she made an unsuitable prime minister. Having made a
fortune as head of Ukraine’s gas industry in the 1990s, she was widely seen
as less than impartial on energy policies. Her deep antipathy to Russia,
where she is still on a wanted list on charges of attempted bribery of
Russian defence officials, complicated Mr Yushchenko’s attempt to mend
fences with Moscow; on Monday President Putin expressed sarcastic scorn for
Ukraine’s Government to Western journalists.
Mr Yushchenko has now invited a technocrat from eastern Ukraine to head a
new government. At least the two should work together more compatibly. They
will need to do much to recoup their position before parliamentary elections
in March, where an embittered Mrs Tymoshenko is likely to present a robust
challenge.
Voters will be impressed only by a ceasefire in the squabbling, clear
economic direction and an end to corrosive corruption. -30-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,542-1771533,00.html
=============================================================
9. YUSHCHENKO AXES GOVERNMENT, ORANGE COALITION UNRAVELS
Seven months after taking power in Ukraine, President fires government
By Graeme Smith, Globe and Mail
Toronto, Canada, Friday, September 9, 2005
MOSCOW - The political marriage at the heart of the Orange Revolution
suffered an ugly breakup yesterday, as Ukrainian President Viktor
Yushchenko fired his Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, along with the rest
of the government.
Mr. Yushchenko seemed reluctant to dismiss the woman who helped him gain
power, and who now may want to oppose him for the country's top job. The
President made the move only eight months after the two held hands in Kiev's
central square, wearing orange scarves and triumphant smiles, cheering the
demise of a post-Soviet regime widely regarded as decrepit and corrupt.
"I have spent the last three nights thinking about how to keep together that
which has already separated," Mr. Yushchenko said yesterday. "The key issue
was the issue of trust. If there had been a possibility to preserve team
spirit, to remain together, it would have been the best answer. We had such
an agreement and during the night it was changed, but not by me."
Ms. Tymoshenko's departure follows a series of defections from the team that
helped Mr. Yushchenko prevail in a chaotic struggle for the presidency in
December. Thousands of people flooded the streets in protest against what
they described as vote rigging in favour of a candidate backed by Russia.
When the election was repeated under the scrutiny of foreign observers, the
pro-Western candidate, Mr. Yushchenko, took 52 per cent of the vote.
On the streets of Kiev yesterday, people were wondering what happened to
their revolution.
"It is very bad," said Iryna Petriv, 24, a public-relations manager. "People
believed in this team because these people promised to change their lives
for the better. I do not like that today Yushchenko dismisses the cabinet
and tomorrow Tymoshenko will say bad things about Yushchenko.
Considering that they were going to run for next year's election together,
this scandal raises many questions."
Polls suggest an increasing number of Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the
new government: An August survey of 2,000 people in the country of 48
million found that 43 per cent of them agree that Ukraine is on the wrong
path, a sharp increase from 23 per cent in April.
That survey was taken as voters reacted to inflation, political infighting,
slowing economic growth and the sluggish pace of promised reforms. The
numbers don't reflect how much worse the situation has grown in recent weeks
as the government, whose central promise was a fight against corruption, has
been dogged by high-profile allegations of financial impropriety.
Olexander Zinchenko, the President's chief of staff, who resigned abruptly
this week, made the most damaging accusation. He accused Petro
Poroshenko, Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, of
corruption, interference with the media and meddling in the justice system.
Mr. Poroshenko, a confectionery and media tycoon and staunch supporter of
Mr. Yushchenko, was widely seen as the President's counterbalance to the
rival Prime Minister in the new government. He denied the accusation but
resigned yesterday.
Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Tomenko also quit, saying he could no longer
tolerate working among the corrupt advisers and aides to the President.
Mr. Yushchenko has asked the other ministers to stay at their posts until he
can name a new cabinet. Ms. Tymoshenko is the only exception; she has been
replaced in the interim by Yuriy Yekhanurov, a regional governor who is
loyal to Mr. Yushchenko.
It's the climax of a long-simmering feud between Ms. Tymoshenko, a populist
who favoured increased social spending and sweeping re-examination of flawed
privatizations, and Mr. Yushchenko, a free-market liberal who wanted greater
fiscal restraint and only limited investigations of privatization.
An adviser to the President said Mr. Yushchenko tried to broker a deal with
Ms. Tymoshenko this week, allowing the charismatic 44-year-old to keep her
job while axing some of the people implicated in the growing swirl of
accusations that politicians profited from the dismantling of the former
government.
It appears that Ms. Tymoshenko refused the invitation. She didn't make any
statements yesterday, saving her comments for a news conference today.
Dan Bilak, a Canadian lawyer advising Ms. Tymoshenko on administrative
reform, said that while the tensions between her and Mr. Yushchenko likely
played a role in yesterday's decision, the biggest factor was probably the
President's desire to end the crisis in his government.
"People will respect that a tough decision was taken, and taken quickly,"
Mr. Bilak said.
Six months before the parliamentary elections, analysts say, Mr. Yushchenko
desperately needs to improve his popularity if he hopes to implement his
ambitious program to take the former Soviet republic into the European
Union. The new Ukrainian constitution is to take effect in January,
devolving many powers from the President to the parliament and making it
politically necessary for Mr. Yushchenko's allies to win seats.
But the 51-year-old President, who is in poor health and often travelling
abroad, could face a strong challenge from the telegenic Ms. Tymoshenko.
He has invited her to remain on his team in an unspecified capacity, but
several observers speculated last night that she would prefer to go her own
way -- perhaps launching an opposition party in preparation for the
parliamentary elections in March.
"The big question is, will Tymoshenko play the role of official opposition?"
asked Olexiy Haran, a professor of political science at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.
In a commentary published on the Ukrainian Pravda website, political analyst
Andriy Yermolaev suggested an answer: "Tymoshenko will be developing her
own political project now. -30-
=============================================================
10. ORANGE TURMOIL
Is Yushchenko's Democratic dream hopeless?
COMMENTARY: By Nikolas K. Gvosdev
Editor of The National Interest
The National Review, USA, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
The political crisis in Ukraine is a stark wake-up call for those
politicians and pundits who were so quick last winter to laud what they
viewed as the inevitable, quick triumph of democracy. It is also a reminder
that there is no substitute for determined investment if the United States
is to secure the benefits of "regime change."
Paul Saunders and I drew a good deal of criticism for an essay ("On
Liberty") we penned earlier this year when we wrote, "Some act as if the
emergence of democracy in a country were solely a matter of protests in a
capital city's main square . and they downplay the very real challenges
needed to make democracies functional.
Others, anxious to prove that the number of 'democracies' in the world is
growing, seem more eager to color in new countries on the map as
'democratic' than to establish sustainable democracies that genuinely
provide freedom, justice and a better quality of life to their citizens."
But in the aftermath of recent events in Kiev, I think our cautionary
perspective has been vindicated. I'd also like to echo a point raised by
John Mearsheimer, author of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics: "Realists
are often accused of disliking democracy and even of being anti-democratic.
This is a bogus charge. . Realists, however, are well aware of the
difficulty of spreading democracy ."
Alright, enough theoretical posturing, and on to the question at hand:
What's happening in Ukraine?
Fulfilling the promises of the "Orange Revolution" - after all, Ukrainians
(and Georgians and Kyrgyz, for their part) did not risk life and limb to
protest electoral violations last November to dispossess one group of
oligarchs in favor of empowering another group - was always going to be
difficult. But Ukraine (like Serbia in 2000, or even Boris Yeltsin's Russia
in 1991) had two particular hurdles to overcome.
The first challenge was for Viktor Yushchenko to transform an umbrella
opposition movement into a governing coalition. Up to the presidential
elections, it was very clear what the various members of the opposition were
against - they were against the authoritarian, crony-capitalism regime of
outgoing president Leonid Kuchma; they were against the efforts of then
prime-minister Viktor Yanukovych to fix the elections in his favor; they
wanted Ukraine to join the Euro-Atlantic community.
But the politicians, intellectuals, and tycoons who clustered together under
Yushchenko's banner had no common political agenda. Some wanted to
pursue radical-free market reforms while others hankered for a kinder,
gentler version of Soviet socialism. And while some were committed to
ending the practice of using state power to apportion out the country's
economy, others were more than happy to retain Ukrainian crony-
capitalism if they could be the beneficiaries.
(And like the Clintons in the United States, a number of Ukrainian political
figures who had applauded the media's efforts to uncover corruption and
malfeasance when it was directed against their opponents didn't particularly
care for any sort of in-depth investigative journalism into their own
affairs.)
Up to this week, Yushchenko tried to balance his populist-oligarch prime
minister Yuliya Tymoshenko - whose exuberance and fiery rhetoric and
popularity with the crowds many credit for the success of the Orange
Revolution with Petro Poroshenko, a close ally whom he appointed as
chairman of the security and defense council.
But the exodus of several key officials - including Yushchenko's own chief
of staff - as well as increasingly bitter battles over the fate of a number
of key Ukrainian assets (with different business groups lining up behind
Tymoshenko and Poroshenko) ended this arrangement.
Yushchenko has nominated a technocratic governor, Yuri Yekhanurov, as the
new prime minister, but cannot bequeath his choice a majority in the Rada,
Ukraine's parliament. Whether the country can move ahead and whether the
government can demonstrate a renewed commitment to fighting corruption
and forging ahead with reform remains to be seen.
But the West can't salve its own conscience by blaming this solely on the
Ukrainians. Many of us today have a curious lapse of memory when talking
about the transitions to democracy in Eastern Europe after 1989. We put
forward a heroic tale about how Poles, Czechs, Slovaks, or Hungarians
transformed dysfunctional communist regimes into flourishing democracies
(and assume therefore that Ukrainians, Georgians, Iraqis, or Lebanese
should do the same).
But as John Hulsman and Anatol Lieven pointed out in the summer issue of The
National Interest, it was the prospect of eventual membership in NATO and
the European Union which forced discipline on the political and economic
elites of Eastern Europe, enabling them to make the hard choices necessary
to reform their societies.
I wrote in the November 26, 2004 issue of the International Herald Tribune
that if the Orange Revolution were to succeed, a Yushchenko government
"would have to demonstrate that his westward-oriented policies would
generate results. And here the United States and the European Union would
have to lay down clear benchmarks for facilitating Ukraine's closer
integration with the Euro-Atlantic world - and be prepared to commit real
resources.
Even if European leaders hold out the prospect of EU membership decades
in the future, there is no reason that tangible benefits cannot be offered
now - such as a free-trade agreement, or a guest worker regime that allows
Ukrainians to live and work legally in Europe or in the United States."
And it seemed that leading members of the Congress agreed - and even
couched facilitating Ukraine's closer integration with the West as a vital
national security interest of the United States. At a hearing of the House
International Relations Committee on December 7, 2004, Congressman Henry
Hyde declared: "An independent Ukraine allied to the West, then, is the key
to security in the East. . Because if Ukraine's independence is to be made
secure, it must be fully integrated into and protected by the West and its
institutions.
I don't know what the European Union may do toward this end, but I believe
that Ukraine's independence can only be guaranteed by it becoming a full
member of NATO, and it can become a member of NATO only if it has become
a true democracy. Full membership may not be possible in the immediate
future,
but many of its benefits can be harvested by making our commitment clear
now."
For his part, Congressman Tom Lantos expressed his distress that the United
States and Europe had done so little to block Russian neo-imperialism.
Back in June I wrote: "Seeds of democracy may have been planted throughout
Eurasia; whether they take root and flower depends on whether they are
nourished. We need a new strategy - the old one is no longer viable."
So where does Ukraine go from here? Can Yushchenko put the Orange Coalition
back together? After all, the forces which backed ex-Prime Minister Viktor
Yanukovych last year are organizing for next year's parliamentary elections.
I can see the slogan now: "We were corrupt but we gave you 13 percent
growth." (So far, under the current regime, growth has slowed to 4 percent).
And just as Iranians gave their votes to a hard-line candidate who promised
to root out corruption and improve ordinary Iranians' quality of life, might
Ukrainian voters next year decide that the "democrats" can't deliver and
that the "old regime" was the better option? Russian voters who
overwhelmingly cast their ballots for Boris Yeltsin in 1991 embraced his
political enemies two years later.
It is also too early to tell what the impact will be of the decision of
Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus at the recent Kazan summit to proceed with
the formation of the "Common Economic Space" by March 2006 without
waiting for Ukraine to decide whether it wants to take part.
Significantly, it seems that Russia has rejected Kiev's proposals for
bilateral arrangements; thus, by the time of the parliamentary elections,
Yushchenko may have the worst of all possible worlds; blamed by the eastern
half of the country for self-excluding Ukraine from a free-trade arrangement
with two of its major economic partners without being able to demonstrate
any conclusive progress toward eventual EU and NATO membership.
Americans lost interest in Ukraine once the squares emptied and the cameras
moved on. But if the success of the Orange Revolution is indeed as vital to
U.S. national security as so many here in Washington have claimed, then we'd
better be prepared to act. -30- [Action Ukraine Report Monitoring]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nikolas K. Gvosdev is editor of The National Interest.
=============================================================
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11. "PEELING AWAY THE REVOLUTION"
COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS: By Robin Sheperd
The Wall Street Journal, New York, NY, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
An act of strength or sign of weakness? Actually, Viktor Yushchenko's
decision to fire his entire government yesterday smacks of both: strength
because it allows him to form a cabinet of allies rather than rivals; and
weakness because he was all but forced to do it to answer damaging
accusations that he was tolerating corruption in his own inner circle.
We may leave that debate about the position of President Yushchenko to
those who believe history is the product of great men. To the rest of us,
Ukraine's biggest political crisis since the Orange Revolution should be
understood, to a great extent, in terms of flaws in the revolution which
were apparent from the start. Yesterday's events may not have been
inevitable, but a panoply of factors made some sort of crisis a distinct
possibility.
The most obvious problems, of course, centered on the fractious nature of
the democratic forces that took power in January. In explaining his decision
yesterday, Mr. Yushchenko accused the government of losing its "team
spirit," an accusation which when applied to Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko could pass for the country's understatement of the year.
The charismatic, and immensely rich, premier has barely concealed her own
ambitions to take the president's place as the key player in national
politics and has been engaged in all-out warfare with other members of the
government for months. Enter Petro Poroshenko, the National Security and
Defense Council secretary, who has been at loggerheads with Ms.
Tymoshenko over economic policy.
Corruption allegations (unsubstantiated as yet) against Mr. Poroshenko, who
is also immensely rich, brought the current crisis to a head, and there is
now a real risk that the two will lead their respective power blocks into
next March's crucial general elections as enemies rather than allies.
Any such confrontation could prove disastrous for the reform movement,
either pushing it out of power completely or, more likely, forcing
reformists to make damaging concessions to supporters of the previous
administration in order to form a new government.
To add to the difficulties, such bickering takes place amid a dramatic
downturn in the country's economic fortunes. Growth in the first half of the
year collapsed to just 3.7%. That compares to 13.5% in the same period last
year. Sliding growth has been accompanied by rocketing inflation, which
currently hovers just below 15%. In a country where many people earn less
than $50 a month, rising prices can cause real social pain.
Not surprisingly against such a backdrop, public support is plummeting. A
poll by the Razumkov institute in August suggested that 43% of Ukrainians
believed the country was on the wrong path, a jump from 23% in April. The
August poll found just 32% felt the country was doing well, down sharply
from 54% last spring.
The key question now, therefore, is this: Can Mr. Yushchenko and his new
government recreate unity among the country's democratic forces, or are
they heading for collapse?
Much depends on the attitude of Ms. Tymoshenko. She is due to make a
televised address later today and it is little exaggeration to say that the
content of that broadcast could define the future of her country. If she
accepts President Yushchenko's generous offer yesterday to keep her in the
fold in some capacity or other, there is hope that the reformists can pull
it off. But she could also cause real problems.
Mr. Yushchenko already faces difficulties in parliament passing legislation
aimed at joining the World Trade Organization. He also has to get approval
for the new prime minister. If Ms. Tymoshenko opts for all-out
confrontation, it is hard to see how the situation can be prevented from
descending into chaos.
But ultimate success for the aims of the Orange Revolution has never been
simply down to events inside Ukraine. The country's problems were always
going to be too severe to cope with in the absence of outside help. That's
why the attitude of the European Union has always been so important, and
why its policy hitherto has been so disappointing.
What Ukraine needs, and needs fast, is a clear and unambiguous statement
from Brussels that it will be invited to start accession negotiations with
the European Union if the country's pro-democracy parties promise to work
together to pass important reformist legislation and then go on to win the
March elections.
Such a statement would certainly be tantamount to blatant intervention in
Ukraine's political affairs, but it would be no less welcome for that. There
is also a useful precedent in Brussels's brilliant strategy of working with
democratic forces in neighboring Slovakia in the 1990s to successfully
promote unity among opponents of that country's former authoritarian Prime
Minister Vladimir Meciar. Slovakia today is a reformist success story.
Brussels must take note.
All this said, the big picture in Ukraine remains one of hope and progress.
This time last year, the country was run by a group of people who it would
be kind to describe as thugs. The country still may have a long way to go,
but we are at least past the stage at which opposition journalists wandered
around the streets of Kiev in fear for their lives.
When President George W. Bush praised the millions of people who stood
on the streets of the Ukrainian capital last year as modern-day heroes of
the
democratic ideal, he was right. But as in Iraq, what he and his
administration may have underestimated is the sheer complexity of the task
at hand and the time scale in which we expect success.
What we are watching in Ukraine are still the first tentative steps in a
desperately difficult transition. We will get a pretty good idea of whether
that task can, in the end, be accomplished in the days and weeks
head. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mr. Shepherd is an adjunct fellow of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies. He is based in Bratislava.
=============================================================
12. "UKRAINE'S ORANGE FLAME, DIMMED"
EDITORIAL: New York Times
New York, NY, Friday, September 9, 2005
So ends the Orange Revolution, at least Act I. After months of increasingly
nasty disputes, Ukraine's president, Viktor Yushchenko, fired his
charismatic prime minister and nominated a caretaker to replace her. The
fired prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, has said nothing - yet. But she
will.
Her fiery speeches and powerful presence were a major factor in the popular
uprising that brought Mr. Yushchenko to power last fall, and she is certain
to turn these weapons on the president and his new government, especially
with elections for Parliament scheduled for March. All that is a serious
blow to the hopes and expectations that had been raised for the future of
Ukraine, and for reformers in Belarus and other former Soviet republics.
Perhaps the expectations were always unrealistic. People who unite to oust
one government, as the Ukrainians did with huge demonstrations, do not
necessarily agree on what the next one should be, and the alliance was
always shaky between Mr. Yushchenko, a former prime minister and central
banker, and Ms. Tymoshenko, who made a fortune in the gas business.
Mr. Yushchenko and Ms. Tymoshenko squandered the momentum generated
on Kiev's streets, struggling over control of lucrative industries, over
relations with Russia and over how to cope with soaring energy prices. The
impression was of a government with no focus.
On dismissing the government, Mr. Yushchenko declared that his one goal
was to ensure stability. But the Ukrainian protesters wanted change. If Mr.
Yushchenko hopes to salvage anything of their spirit, he needs to convince
his country, and a very wary West, that he not only believes in democracy,
free markets and the rule of law, but is also capable of leading Ukraine in
that direction. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
=============================================================
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=============================================================
13. "BITTER ORANGES"
EDITORIAL: Financial Times, London, UK, Friday, Sep 9, 2005
Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's president, yesterday finally moved to end a
political crisis that was disrupting his government and undermining business
confidence. But Ukraine cannot hope for real stability until after next
spring's parliamentary elections, by which time the domestic and
international goodwill generated by the Orange Revolution may be lost.
Mr Yushchenko was right to overcome his innate caution and sack Yulia
Tymoshenko, his populist prime minister. By appointing Yuri Yekhanurov, a
long-standing ally and veteran technocrat, he may bring some much-needed
consistency to the government.
However, the victors of the Orange Revolution, who overthrew the
authoritarian rule of former president Leonid Kuchma, are suffering the
classic problem of regime-changers. United mainly in their opposition to Mr
Kuchma, the new rulers have fallen out over power, policy and patronage.
Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko share the goal of a more open, democratic
and western-oriented Ukraine. But the former hopes to do this through
market-based reforms and some compromise with Mr Kuchma's associates,
while the latter argues for increased welfare spending and unrelenting
assaults on the businessmen who profited from the old regime.
The two camps have been preparing battle plans for next spring's election
test of who is the real winner of the Orange Revolution. The ideal answer
would be immediate elections, but they are not permitted under the
constitution.
So Mr Yushchenko must make the best of the next few months to establish
himself as a credible manager. In particular, he must complete the
reprivatisation of Kryvorizhstal, the steelworks that has been taken back
from the Kuchma cronies to whom it was previously sold in a rigged auction.
International steel companies are among the potential buyers.
A successful new sale would show the new authorities are addressing the
wrongs of the Kuchma regime and acting in a transparent, business-friendly
way.
Even if they campaign separately, Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko must
remain ready to co-operate. For if they split permanently, they would only
create opportunities for the opposition - the former Kuchma supporters
grouped around Viktor Yanukovich, the former prime minister whom Mr Kuchma
backed as his successor.
In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin, who supported Mr Yanukovich for
president, is rubbing his hands with glee, saying he warned the Orange
Revolution would end badly. Ukrainians must not give the Kremlin another
chance to intervene. And the Kremlin must not be tempted to do so.
Equally, the US and the European Union should stand aside. Ukrainians must
choose for themselves who their leaders should be, as they did in the Orange
Revolution. Nobody said democracy would be easy. -30-
=============================================================
14. YUSHCHENKO FINALLY ACTS TO CLEAN UP HIS GOVERNMENT
COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS: By Taras Kuzio
Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol 2, Issue 167
The Jamestown Foundation, Wash, D.C., Fri, Sep 9, 2005
Yesterday, September 8, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko fired his
government and removed top officials accused of corruption. Oleksandr
Zinchenko, the former head of the presidential secretariat, had leveled the
startling corruption charges four days earlier after resigning on September
2 (see EDM, September 8).
The crisis that engulfed Yushchenko's team after Zinchenko's accusations was
no ordinary political crisis. Indeed, Socialist Party leader Oleksandr Moroz
described it as a "crisis of the system" (Ukrayinska pravda, September 8).
Suddenly Ukraine's Orange Revolution received its first negative headlines
from the international media. The Daily Telegraph's September 7 headline
was typical: "Ukraine's Orange Revolution loses its luster."
Worse still, Ukraine's leaders failed to quietly forewarn the United States,
the European Union, and Russia of Yushchenko's imminent housecleaning.
Not surprisingly, many observers remained concerned about possible
"destabilization" while scrambling to find out more than what they had read
on the morning wires.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin appeared overjoyed at the crisis (The
Guardian, September 6). He repeated Zinchenko's accusations of corruption,
gloating, "We said this before and no one wanted to listen to us."
Ultimately, the main fallout was in the domestic arena, as the crisis called
into question Yushchenko's personal leadership style. Few wanted to say
publicly what everybody was saying privately; namely, does Yushchenko
have the political will to enforce his presidential decisions?
Since his inauguration in January, Yushchenko has often preferred traveling
on the international stage than actually running the country. Although
constitutional reforms transferring some power from the executive to
parliament and government are not set to take place until January 2006,
Yushchenko was already acting as a symbolic president.
In the last eight months, Yushchenko has only intervened when the domestic
situation reached a crisis point. He failed to halt the notorious public
squabbling between Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and National Security
and Defense Council Secretary Petro Poroshenko.
He finally intervened in May, warning Tymoshenko about her statist economic
policies (see EDM, May 11, 27), and in June-July, when it looked as though
parliament might not adopt the legislation necessary for joining the WTO
(EDM, June 15). In September Yushchenko warned Tymoshenko about
supporting one oligarch group (Pryvat) over another (Interpipe) in a
re-privatization dispute.
When Zinchenko aired the coalition's dirty laundry ahead of Yushchenko's
scheduled visit to the United States this week, the president had to
respond. A failure to act decisively might have spelled the end of the
Yushchenko presidency. The opposition would capitalize on public anxieties
and the image of a lame duck president ahead of the March 2006 elections.
Social Democratic Party-United parliamentary faction leader Leonid Kravchuk
warned Yushchenko that he could face early elections if the political crisis
continued. The former president obviously spoke from experience, having
been forced to call early elections in 1994.
A growing number of Ukrainians had already begun to question whether
Yushchenko was all that different from his predecessor, Leonid Kuchma. A
Razmukov Center poll found that the number of Ukrainians who believed that
Yushchenko was better than Kuchma had declined from 52% in April to 37% in
August (Zerkalo Tyzhnia/Nedeli, August 27-September 2).
Worse still, in August the number of Ukrainians who believed that Ukraine
was moving in the "wrong direction" (43%) for the first time was higher than
those who thought Ukraine was moving in the right direction (32%). In
February 51% of Ukrainians believed Ukraine was moving in the "right
direction" compared to only 24% who disagreed. Trust in Yushchenko and
Tymoshenko had declined during the same period by 16-17% (Zerkalo
Tyzhnia/Nedeli, August 27-September 2).
Parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn said that, although the new leaders
claimed to be doing everything in a different way, "it increasingly
resembled how it was done under Kuchma" (Ukrayinska pravda, September
6). He certainly would know, as he was head of the presidential
administration from 1996-2002.
Yushchenko was also damaged by accusations recently made by Lesia
Gongadze, mother of murdered opposition journalist Heorhiy Gongadze.
Although killed in fall 2000, he has yet to be buried. Lesia Gongadze lost a
court case in which she had complained about the inactivity of the
prosecutor's office regarding her son's case. Afterwards, she said, "So
what, Yushchenko or Kuchma - nothing has changed. I will not go to
Yushchenko and give him my hand, as we have nothing in common"
(Ukrayinska pravda, September 7).
There have long been whispers that the official investigation into who
ordered the Gongadze murder has been blocked at high levels (see EDM, July
20). First Deputy Prime Minister Mykola Tomenko said that the same people
Zinchenko had accused of corruption were the same people who were blocking
the Gongadze investigation (Ukrayinska pravda, September 8). Tomenko also
claimed that Lytvyn had blocked parliamentary discussion of the report by
the parliamentary investigation commission.
By acting decisively to remove officials accused of corruption, Yushchenko
has shown that his presidency differs from that of Kuchma, who condoned
corruption in exchange for political loyalty.
Zinchenko has already taken evidence to the prosecutor's office related to
Poroshenko's allegedly corrupt activities. Accusations against him may be
personally difficult for Yushchenko, as Poroshenko is the godfather of one
of Yushchenko's five children.
Yushchenko's decisive actions have resolved the crisis for now. But there
remains much to be done and his allies are deserting him. Yushchenko's Our
Ukraine parliamentary faction has progressively disintegrated throughout
this week. People's Union-Our Ukraine now has only 45 deputies, down from
100 at the beginning of 2005. Yushchenko's faction now has only one more
deputy than Lytvyn's People's Party (44) and only four more than
Tymoshenko's (41).
After Zinchenko's accusations, the Our Ukraine faction splintered into a
People's Union-Our Ukraine bloc (45), using the name of Yushchenko's
stalled new party of power, and Rukh factions (14). Two further factions
soon appeared -- Reforms and Order (15) and Forward Ukraine (19). The
Ukrainian People's Party (22) withdrew from Our Ukraine earlier.
Given the apparent crisis, perhaps Yushchenko should not be traveling
abroad at this time. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Taras Kuzio, Visiting Professor, Institute for European Russian and
Eurasian Studies, George Washington University, Washington, DC
tkuzio@gwu.edu; www.ieres.org; www.taraskuzio.net
=============================================================
15. MOSCOW SAYS SITUATION IN UKRAINE IS DOMESTIC AFFAIR
RIA NOVOSTI, Moscow, Russia, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
MOSCOW - Moscow sees Thursday's developments in the Ukrainian
government as a domestic affair, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in
a statement.
"Moscow sees the development of the situation in Ukraine as a purely
domestic affair and Russia will continue its course on the development of
strategic partnership relations with Ukraine," the ministry said.
The work on the formation of the Russian-Ukrainian intergovernmental
commission headed by the Ukrainian and Russian presidents and that on
the coordination of the "Russia-Ukraine plans of action for 2005-2006" is
almost complete, the ministry said. -30-
=============================================================
16. JAVIER SOLANA UNDERSCORES IMPORTANCE OF UKRAINIAN
LEADERS STICKING TO REFORMATION COURSE
Ukrinform, Brussels, Belgium, Fri, Sep 9, 2005
BRUSSELS - It is extremely important that Ukrainian leaders, who have
pledged to realize the Ukrainian people's drive for democracy, reforms
and Europe, continue their work as a powerful team, a statement says,
which EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security
Service Javier Solana made and which was circulated by his press service.
According to the statement, for over several past days Javier Solana has
held conversations with a number of Ukrainian political leaders, during
which he has once again reaffirmed the EU's support of Ukraine's
political and economic reforms.
I've reassured my interlocutors about the EU's abidance by its commitment
to support the ambitious program of political and economic reforms in
Ukraine, the statement says.
It was just several months ago that the people of Ukraine demonstrated
quite clearly and unambiguously their wish for democracy, reforms and
joining Europe, the statement says. -30-
=============================================================
17. SALE OF UKRAINE STEEL COMPANY SEEN AS UNSTOPPABLE
By Andrew Hurst, Reuters, Moscow, Russia, Fri Sep 9, 2005
MOSCOW - Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko looks almost certain to
auction off steel company Kryvorizhstal next month despite sacking the
government that ordered its sale, analysts said on Friday.
Yushchenko dismissed Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko on Thursday after
her cabinet was torn apart by infighting and mutual accusations of graft,
and appointed trusted technocrat Yury Yekhanurov to replace her and pick
a new team.
"I think the process of reprivatizing Kryvorizhstal is not stoppable," said
Oleksander Paskhaver, Head of Ukraine's Centre for Economic Development.
"The process does not depend on the prime minister. It cannot be changed."
Putting Kryvorizhstal -- the country's biggest steel company sold last year
under former President Leonid Kuchma -- back on the auction block has
become little short of an article of faith for Yushchenko.
He has repeatedly said the sale of the company to Ukrainian "oligarchs"
Rinat Akhmetov and Viktor Pinchuk, who won despite being outbid by rivals,
amounted to the theft of a state asset.
"I do not think there will be a delay in the auction," said a foreign
economist based in Kiev who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Yushchenko
has promoted it more than anyone else."
Ukraine's State Property Fund has said six companies want to bid for 93.02
percent of Kryvorizhstal, which has annual production capacity of 7 million
tonnes, at the Oct. 24 auction.
"We have been very interested in Kryvorizhstal and we remain very
interested," said Paul Weigh, a spokesman for Mittal Steel , the world's
largest steel company. "If a new government does come in, we hope they
will also be committed to the privatisation of Kryvorizhstal."
Potential bidders in the $2 billion sale include Arcelor, the world's No. 2
steelmaker, and Russia's Evraz Group and Severstal.
"The nominations that Yushchenko has made will bring greater order to the
decision making process," said a source close to Evraz, Russia's largest
steel firm. "There won't be the element of speculation that hobbled the work
of the old government."
LIMITED REVIEW
A cabinet headed by Yekhanurov is also more likely to limit the scope of any
review of other privatisations carried out during the Kuchma era. Yushchenko
has always said he favours reviewing only a small number of sell-offs.
Tymoshenko, a populist who played a pivotal role in the Orange Revolution
that brought Yushchenko to power, favoured a more radical review of
Kuchma-era privatisations and often clashed with her boss over the issue.
"Yekhanurov is a supporter of minimum state involvement in the economy and
is opposed to reprivatisations and I agree with him," said Paskhaver, who
had dealings with Yekhanurov when the latter was in charge of the State
Property Fund in the 1990s.
Tymoshenko's cabinet slowly tore itself apart as key ministers constantly
feuded in public. The most recent clash was over ownership of the Nikopol
metal plant which Yushchenko wants returned to state ownership and resold.
Yushchenko may now have a chance to forge an administration which is united
behind the free-market reforms he says he wants implemented ahead of
parliamentary elections in March 2006.
Oleh Rybachuk, a close Yushchenko ally who is secretary of state, told
Kiev's diplomatic community on Thursday evening that ability to do the job
had not been the main criterion when the Tymoshenko cabinet was chosen.
"Rybachuk told us people were selected for their support for the Orange
Revolution, not on the basis of support for a market reform agenda," said a
foreign official who was at the briefing.
"He said they now have a chance to build a cabinet behind market reform."
(Additional reporting by Olena Horodetska in Kiev, Douglas Busvine and
Yelena Smirnova in Moscow) -30-
=============================================================
18. "THE ORANGE REVOLUTIONARIES LET THE SIDE DOWN"
The Economist Global Agenda, London, UK, Thu, 8 September 2005
Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko has sacked his prime minister and her
cabinet following the resignation of several senior figures amid allegations
of corruption. Last year's orange revolution promised much but has so far
delivered little
WINNING power is the easy bit. Wielding it properly is much harder. That is
the lesson for the victors of Ukraine's orange revolution. Squabbling and
scandals among the country's new rulers have shrivelled the high hopes of
the demonstrators who braved the freezing streets of Kiev to remove the
corrupt and incompetent old guard from power last year. Now those squabbles
have boiled over.
Top aides to the president, Viktor Yushchenko, have resigned amid swirling
allegations of corruption. And on Thursday September 8th he sacked the
government, led by the fiery prime minister, Yulia Timoshenko. Her
administration, the president declared, had lost its "team spirit".
In the past week, the president's inner circle started disintegrating.
Oleksandr Zinchenko, his impressive chief of staff, resigned claiming that
other advisers had organised an "information blockade" around the president,
in order to "use government posts to get their hands on everything they
can". He explicitly named the national-security secretary, Petro Poroshenko,
a controversial figure who has at times seemed to run a private foreign
policy at variance with Mr Yushchenko's pro-western orientation.
Mr Poroshenko and a colleague resigned shortly before the whole government
was sacked, followed by the head of the state-security service. But perhaps
the final straw for Mr Yushchenko was the resignation of Nikolai Tomenko, a
deputy prime minister, who said he was no longer prepared to put up with the
venality of the president's inner circle.
Mr Yushchenko moved quickly on Thursday to plug these gaps, asking Yuri
Yekhanurov, governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, to form a new government.
"I am setting before the new team one task: the ability to work as a united
team. We need to halt the disappointment in society," said the president.
He has worked closely with Mr Yekhanurov before-when they were prime
minister and deputy prime minister, respectively, in 2000-but it was not
immediately clear whether the appointment was interim or something more
permanent. Nor is it certain to be approved by the parliament, where the
president's supporters have lacked a stable majority.
The revolution that brought Mr Yushchenko to power, named after his campaign
colour, pitted him against the corrupt, often incompetent administration of
President Leonid Kuchma. The government drew most of its support from the
industrial, Russian-speaking southern and eastern regions, while Mr
Yushchenko was much more popular in the Ukrainian-speaking west.
When the challenger finally won the election against Mr Kuchma's candidate,
Viktor Yanukovich, after the rigged first round was re-run, he pledged to
stamp out the dodgy-dealing that was rampant under Mr Kuchma and to
strengthen Ukraine's ties to the European Union and America.
But it did not take long for things to start going wrong. Economic reform
stalled while inflation climbed. This, say people who tried to advise the
government, was partly because of Mrs Timoshenko's short attention span, and
also because of deep divisions within the government between those who
genuinely wanted to reform the country and those who wanted merely to rejig
the old arrangements to their advantage.
In particular, much time and energy was spent on the question of the
allegedly fraudulent privatisations of Ukraine's heavy industry under the
old regime. Some in the new government seemed more interested in
score-settling and asset-grabbing than fairness. Huge sums were at stake,
and the desire of Ukraine's oligarchs to hold on to their gains, ill-gotten
or not, may be at the root of the current upheaval.
Mrs Timoshenko dithered on the privatisation issue. In other areas, her
problem was rashness. The most egregious example came when she imposed
price caps on fuel, alleging an anti-Ukrainian conspiracy by Russian energy
firms.
Predictably, this measure led to fuel shortages. Mr Yushchenko intervened to
remove the caps, and relations between the two soured; they deteriorated
further when Mr Yushchenko said the government had bungled the
nationalisation of a metals plant owned by investors with links to the
former regime.
The president never forgot that Mrs Timoshenko's stirring oratory had
brought thousands on to the streets in support of him during last year's
revolution. But he also came to see that she could be more of a liability
than an asset in government.
Mr Yushchenko let the side down, too, failing to live up to his stellar
reputation as a reformer (which always mystified those who remembered his
undistinguished stint as prime minister). He did make some stabs at reform:
sacking the country's entire traffic police, who were detested for their
corruption, was a high point.
But his own reputation has frayed. His son's extravagant lifestyle
(involving tycoon's toys like a $40,000 mobile phone) came under close
scrutiny; contradictory and angry responses by Mr Yushchenko and others
made matters worse.
There are fears that Ukrainian politics may be about to get a lot nastier.
Mr Yushchenko held out an olive branch to his outgoing prime minister and
her cabinet on Thursday, saying: "These people remain my friends. It is very
difficult but today I must remove this Gordian knot." But Mrs Timoshenko-who
is yet to comment publicly on her dismissal-may not see it that way.
Analysts predict a noisy showdown between the rival orange camps in the
parliamentary elections that are due in March.
All of which is worrying for Ukraine's western friends. America and the EU
threw their weight behind the orange revolution, aware that Mr Yushchenko
was keen to remove his country of 47m from Russia's sphere of influence. In
April, during a visit by Mr Yushchenko to America, Ukraine was offered
fast-track talks on joining the NATO defence alliance and the World Trade
Organisation. The country also hopes to join the EU, one day. For Mr
Yushchenko's western cheerleaders, the latest developments in Kiev are
disappointing.
But they are even more upsetting for Ukrainians. Having booted out one lot
of corrupt and incompetent rulers, they could do so again. But this time
there are no obvious candidates to lead the opposition. -30-
=============================================================
19. "IN THE UKRAINE: FREEDOM'S BITTER FRUIT"
NEWS ANALYSIS: By Jason Bush
Business Week magazine, USA, Fri, Sep, 9, 2005
Deepening political rivalries and the familiar specter of corruption
threaten the gains of last year's Orange Revolution
Less than a year ago, the world watched transfixed as the "Orange
Revolution" unfolded on the streets of Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. The
ultimate election victory of opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko received
approval worldwide. Many had high hopes of a radical new start for Ukraine:
Yushchenko had campaigned in favor of Western-style reforms and
membership in the EU, and against the pervasive corruption of the previous
regime.
But just look at the state of the Orange Revolution today. On Sept. 8,
Yushchenko sacked his entire government -- the latest twist in a political
crisis that has dramatically exposed the divisions at the very top of the
new regime. Yushchenko was forced to take such drastic action after a key
ally, Presidential Chief of Staff Oleksandr Zinchenko, resigned Sept. 3 in
protest over alleged corruption among other senior figures.
TRADING JABS At root, the crisis reflects a bitter fight between two of
Yushchenko's most powerful subordinates. One faction is led by Yulia
Tymoshenko, Prime Minister of the outgoing government and the chief
organizer and inspirer of last year's successful street protests. The other
faction is headed by Petro Poroshenko, head of Yushchenko's Security and
Defense Council until corruption allegations forced him to resign his post
on Thursday. A leading businessman and media magnate, Poroshenko had
given Yushchenko extremely valuable support.
The rivals have been sniping at each other for months. But the conflict got
out of hand amid political maneuvering in advance of next March's
parliamentary elections. Whereas Poroshenko is a leading figure in Our
Ukraine, the major pro-Yushchenko political organization, Tymoshenko leads
a separate political party called Motherland. The parties have failed to
unite, not least because Tymoshenko has long harbored major political
ambitions of her own.
A charismatic and wily populist, Tymoshenko has seen her popularity rating
mushroom since the Orange Revolution propelled her to the premiership. She
can also take pleasure in the latest turn of events. Outside the government,
she will have greater freedom to exercise her talent for crusading rhetoric,
boosting her chances during next year's parliamentary elections.
JUST A TEMP? Tymoshenko says that she still wants to work with Yushchenko.
But the loss of his popular sidekick from the government comes as a cruel
blow to the Ukrainian President, and could further bog down the pace of
economic reforms.
Yushchenko has appointed Yuri Yekhanurov, a loyal regional governor, as his
acting Prime Minister. But onlookers view him as little more than a stopgap.
Finding a candidate capable of reuniting the government and its
parliamentary backers will be no easy task. Some have suggested Volodymyr
Lytvyn, the authoritative speaker of Parliament. But he has links with the
old regime of President Leonid Kuchma, which could make him vulnerable to
attacks from the ever-opportunistic Tymoshenko.
The governmental crisis is only the latest problem to hit Yushchenko's
presidency. His attempts to revise corrupt privatization deals undertaken by
his predecessor have also caused widespread confusion -- thanks in no small
part to the conflict within his team and the populist rhetoric of his unruly
Prime Minister, Tymoshenko. Partly as a result of the widespread uncertainty
facing business, Ukraine's economic growth has plummeted: Whereas GDP
grew by 12% in 2004, annualized growth in the first half of this year
amounted to just 4%.
IT MAY BACKFIRE. This is not exactly what investors in Ukraine had been
hoping for following the euphoric triumph of last year's revolution. Maybe
the sacking of the government constitutes just the kind of dramatic gesture
needed to kick the stalled revolution back into gear.
But unless Yushchenko can somehow restore discipline among his associates
and put the reform process firmly back on track, the Orange Revolution
could -- like the great revolutions of the past -- end up devouring its
children. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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