"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT - AUR"
An International Newsletter
The Latest, Up-To-Date
In-Depth Ukrainian News, Analysis, and Commentary

"Ukrainian History, Culture, Arts, Business, Religion,
Sports, Government, and Politics, in Ukraine and Around the World"

"THE ACTION UKRAINE REPORT - AUR" - Number 565
Mr. E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
Washington, D.C., Kyiv, Ukraine, TUESDAY, September 20, 2005

--------INDEX OF ARTICLES--------
"Major International News Headlines and Articles"

1. INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE INITIATIVE LAUNCHED
BY THE UKRAINIAN FEDERATION OF AMERICA
First Lady Kateryna Yushchenko addresses the initial meeting
E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), Number 565, Article 1
Washington, D.C., Tuesday, September 20, 2005

2. INTERNATIONAL FUND "UKRAINE 3000"
LAUNCHES PROGRAM "FROM HOSPITAL TO HOSPITAL"
E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), Number 565, Article 2
Washington, D.C., Tuesday, September 20, 2005

3. UKRAINE'S FOREIGN MINISTER BORYS TARASYUK HOLDS
TWO DAYS OF MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON
E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), Number 565, Article 3
Washington, D.C., Tuesday, September 20, 2005

4. YUSHCHENKO ENDS TRIUMPHAL U.S. VISIT WITH LARRY KING SHOW
By FirsTnews Special Correspondent
Reno Domenico In Philadelphia
FirsTnews, Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, September 19, 2005

5. VICTOR YUSHCHENKO'S ADDRESS ON THE OCCASION OF
RECEIVING THE PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY MEDAL, SAT, SEP 17, 2005
Press office of the President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko
Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, September 18, 2005

6. UKRAINE FACES SHOWDOWN OVER CONFIRMATION OF
NEW PRIME MINISTER YEKHANUROV
By Tom Warner in Kiev, Financial Times, London, UK, Tue, Sep 20 2005

7. UKRAINE PRES SCRAMBLES TO GET SUPPORT FOR ACTING PM
Associated Press (AP), Kiev, Ukraine, Mon, September 19, 2005

8. SACKED UKRAINE PRIME MINISTER ALLEGES SEX BIAS
Agence France Presse, Kiev, Ukraine, Tue, Sep 20, 2005

9. POTENTIAL FOR UKRAINE
By Barbara Wall, International Herald Tribune
Europe, Monday, September 19, 2005

10. UKRAINE'S ORANGE SPLIT
EDITORIAL: The Washington Post
Washington, D.C., Monday, September 19, 2005

11. GEORGIA/UKRAINE: CITIZENS SEE NO IMPROVEMENT IN
SOCIETY, ECONOMY AFTER REVOLUTIONS
By Jean-Christophe Peuch
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)
Prague, Czech Republic, Mon, Sep 19, 2005

12. WHAT'S BECOME OF THE 'COLOR REVOLUTIONS'?
Four U.S. experts examine the initial outcomes of the dramatic political
transformations that rocked Georgia, Kyrgyzastan and Ukraine.
Washington ProFile, International Information Agency
A Russian-language news service dedicated to bridging the
distance between the United States and the former Soviet Union.
A project of the World Security Institute (WSI)
Washington, D.C., September, 2005

13. CROSSROADS OF A LABYRINTH
Many Ukrainians must be wishing it were just a bad dream.
COMMENTARY: By Yulia Mostovaya
Zerkalo Nedeli, Mirror-Weekly, No. 36 (564)
Kyiv, Ukraine, Sat 17-23 September, 2005
=============================================================
1. INTERNATIONAL HEALTH CARE INITIATIVE LAUNCHED
BY THE UKRAINIAN FEDERATION OF AMERICA
First Lady Kateryna Yushchenko addresses the initial meeting

E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), Number 565
Washington, D.C., Tuesday, September 20, 2005

PHILADELPHIA, PA - A new International Health Care Initiative to develop
worldwide support to assist in the building and modernizing of Ukraine's
healthcare system was launched in Philadelphia by the Ukrainian
Federation of America (UFA) on Saturday, September 17, in conjunction
with the visit to the city by Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko and
first lady Kateryna Yushchenko.

President Yushchenko received the prestigious 2005 Philadelphia Liberty
Medal in a ceremony at The National Constitution Center.

Dr. Zenia A. Chernyk, Chairperson of the Federation, announced the new
Initiative at a meeting attended by a group of health care professionals
representing hospitals, many pharmaceutical companies, university
medical colleges, public health laboratories, specific international health
care programs, businesses and foundations who have agreed to
participate in the new Initiative for Ukraine.

Dr. Chernyk introduced Ukraine's first lady, Kateryna Yushchenko, who
explained her priorities as first lady and the program of the International
Fund "Ukraine 3000," a non-governmental philanthropic organization
created in 2001.

Mrs. Yushchenko said she has decided to focus her efforts and the programs
of the Fund, founded by Victor Yushchenko, to improve the critical medial
care situation found in Ukraine today. In order to provide better health
care for the children throughout all of Ukraine, she has launched through
the Fund the program "From Hospital to Hospital." The first lady serves
as Head of the Supervisory Council of the Ukraine 3000 Foundation

The main aspects of the program are: (1) to develop effective partnerships
committed to providing the best medical care for children and (2) to build
state-of-the-art modern hospitals which would offer integrated medical
services and to (3) set up direct communications with medical experts
in other countries, according to Mrs. Yushchenko (4) to work to upgrade
one hospital per oblast in the initial phase of the new program.

One of the major goals of the "Ukraine 3000" Fund is to facilitate the
building of a new 300 bed children's hospital in Kyiv within the next
3-5 years and the building of a new burn center.

Mrs. Yushchenko outlined some of the other priorities for Ukraine
including assistance with preventing HIV-AIDS, children's cardiology,
safe-blood programs, new equipment, the latest books and journals
and training both inside and outside Ukraine

The first lady congratulated the Ukrainian Federation of America for their
new initiative and said she looked forward to working with the Federation
in the implementation of their new program. She encouraged all of the
companies and organizations present at the meeting to either come to
Ukraine and get involved in improving the heath care system or to expand
their present operations there.

Dr. Chernyk said the Federation will lead a delegation representing the
health care organizations and companies to Ukraine in early November
for a series of meeting with the Ministry of Health, the International Fund
"Ukraine 3000'" and other groups and to develop further plans for the
new Initiative's work in Ukraine. Kateryna Yushchenko stated she
looked forward to meeting with the delegation in Kyiv.

Some of the organizations and companies who met with Kateryna
Yushchenko at the Federation meeting included the American International
Health Alliance; Public Health Laboratories; Children's Hospital of
Philadelphia; World Federation of Ukrainian Medical Association; Safe
Blood International Foundation; College of Nursing and Health
Professionals, Drexel University; Baxter; Novo Nordisk; Norvartis; Incyte
Corp; the HIV-AIDS Initiative which includes Roche, Abbot, Merck,
Boeringer-Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, Glaxo-Smithkline and Gilead;
Ukraine-U.S. Business Council and The Bleyzer Foundation.

The Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA) is a not-for-profit
humanitarian organization founded in 1991 and registered in Pennsylvania.
The UFA devotes a major portion of its work to the medical and educational
fields. UFA has sent medical supplies and health care professionals to
Ukraine over the past few years.

UFA has funded the publication of business textbooks, business internship
programs for Ukrainian students at U.S. institutions and master's degree
programs in business in Ukraine.

UFA's most recent endeavor has been working with the Safe Blood
international Foundation to provide blood for transfusions in Ukraine and
thereby help stem the spread of HIV/AIDS.

The Federation's policy is to have all the relevant program translated
into Ukrainian and then if a second language is needed to have the
documents also available in English.

The Federation has facilitated meetings of delegations from Ukraine
with federal and state officials and with members of the Ukrainian-
American community.

UFA has worked for a number of years to develop and maintain the
support of the U.S. Congress and the Pennsylvania Senate for those
programs that strengthen the U.S-Ukraine partnership and serves the
political, cultural, and economic wellbeing of the people of both nations.

The Federation has also worked to have the trade restrictions on Ukraine,
imposed years ago by the U.S. Congress through the passage of the
Jackson-Vanik amendment, lifted. The Federation believes now is the
time for the U.S. Congress to graduate Ukraine from this outdated,
Cold-war imposed restriction.

For several years the Federation has worked in this regard with the
local chapter of the American Jewish Committee. The local chapter
of the AJC has just recently obtained a letter from the executive director
of the national AJC office stating that the AJC will also work this year
with the U.S.Congress to have Congress approve Ukraine's graduation
from the Jackson-Vanik restrictions. -30-
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CONTACT: Ukrainian Federation of America, 930 Henrietta
Avenue, Huntingdon Valley, PA 19006. Tel: 215 663 9191;
Fax 215 663 5673.
=============================================================
2. INTERNATIONAL FUND "UKRAINE 3000"
LAUNCHES PROGRAM "FROM HOSPITAL TO HOSPITAL"

E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), Number
Washington, D.C., Tuesday, September 20, 2005

PHILADELPHIA - The first lady of Ukraine, Kateryna Yushchenko, at a
meeting of health care companies and health officials, sponsored by the
Ukrainian Federation of America (UFA), provided additional information
about a new children's health care program she launched through her
foundation on September 5th in Kyiv, Ukraine.

The Ukraine 3000 International Charitable Foundation announced a
competition for participants of the new 'From Hospital to Hospital'
Program. All Ukrainian medical institutions for children can take part in
this international project.

Kateryna Yushchenko said the health of the Ukrainian nation in the future
depends on the health of our children today. "The protection of children's
health is critical and needs to be substantially improved in Ukraine. This
is why the Fund has launched the program, 'From Hospital to Hospital.'"

According to information packets provided at the meeting by the first lady
the main features of the new program are: (1) to develop effective
partnerships that are committed to providing the best medical care for
children and (2) to build modern, fully-equipped hospitals which would
offer integrated medical services to children in Ukraine and to (3) set
up direct communications with medical experts in other countries and
(4) to work to upgrade one children's hospital per oblast in the initial
phase of the new program.

Direct partnership relationship between "sister hospitals" will create the
conditions necessary for an effective exchange of state-of-the-art
technologies and scientific information, equipment, practical medical
experience in diagnostics and treatment and make possible the direct
communication of medical experts.

The Fund plans to attract donor funds and humanitarian aid for the
affiliated medical institutions of Ukraine, which will become participants
in this program.

The program will run for five years and its implementation will enable
Ukrainian clinics to obtain reliable partners and reach the level of
international standards in diagnostics and treatment.

CHILDREN'S MEDICAL CENTRE IN KYIV

The pilot project calls for the resources of the Fund to be used to build
a new Children's Medical Centre in Kyiv. The Centre would be equipped
with the latest equipment to provide excellent clinical care for sick
children and those children with very abnormal, serious medial issues.

The Center would also provide social, rehabilitation, psychological,
and educational services to assist in the total wellbeing of children
who have suffered serious illness. A new burn center is also planned.

PARTNERS PROGRAM

The International Fund "Ukraine 3000" literature stated the
development of the partners program, 'From Hospital to Hospital,'
involves three steps.

(1) Selection of Ukrainian children's hospitals ---

This will be carried out on a competitive basis using two key criteria:
readiness of a hospital to participate in the program and the evidence
of a real need to benefit from the program. It is expected that one
hospital per oblast will be selected. Ukrainian hospitals need to
have their application papers in by September 30, 2005.

(2) Search for potential international partners ---

International partners will be found who can provide programs for
direct contact between experts; participation in seminars, training
programs including BLS, CRP, ACLS, PALS, TALS, etc.; the
exchange of modern medical methods and technologies, and
opportunities to send Ukrainian health care professionals to
the partner hospitals.

(3) Registration of cooperation memorandums between partners.

The Fund feels a great responsibility for the implementation of this
program, and is pleased to develop and implement a program
that will serve directly the needs of children, Ukraine's first lady,
Kateryna Yushchenko, said in Philadelphia.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

For further information about the 'From Hospital to Hospital' program
of the International Fund "Ukraine 3000" please contact:

Dr. Vera Pavlyuk, PhD, Assistant Professor
Program Director, "From Hospital to Hospital"
International Fund "Ukraine 3000"
22-A Borychiv Tik Str., Kyiv, 04070, Ukraine
Tel: 380 44 467 67 96; Fax 380 44 467 6783
E-mail: vera@ukraine3000.org.ua
[The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) Monitoring Service]
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=============================================================
3. UKRAINE'S FOREIGN MINISTER BORYS TARASYUK HOLDS
TWO DAYS OF MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON

E. Morgan Williams, Publisher and Editor
The Action Ukraine Report (AUR), Number
Washington, D.C., Tuesday, September 20, 2005

WASHINGTON - Ukraine's Acting Foreign Minister Borys Tarasyuk is
holding a wide range of important meetings in Washington for two days
this week.

Tarasyuk held three separate meetings on Monday with representatives
of the Ukraine-U.S. Business Council, The New Atlantic Initiative/American
Enterprise Institute and the Center for Strategic & International Studies
(CSIS). Over 150 persons attended at least one of the three private
organization meetings.

The acting foreign minister met with representatives of the Ukrainian-
American community at the Embassy of Ukraine on Monday evening.
He will meet with high level administration and congressional
representatives on Tuesday.

The following is the text of the presentation given by Acting Foreign
Minister Tarasyuk at the Center for Strategic & International Studies:

A COMMUNITY OF DEMOCRATIC CHOICE-
UKRAINE'S REGIONAL PROJECT

Speech of Foreign Minister of Ukraine Borys Tarasyuk
Statesmen's Forum, Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)
Washington, D.C., Monday, September 19th 2005

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I would like to express my profound gratitude to the Center for Strategic &
International Studies [CSIS] for convening this meeting and giving me an
opportunity to present some important aspects of my country's foreign
policy.

I am supposed to speak about a topic, which is very close to my heart and
well in my competence. But guessing what is on your minds when you are
listening to a Ukrainian minister (even if it is a minister for foreign
affairs) I would start by telling you a few words about internal
developments in Ukraine.

Last weeks` events in Kyiv can not but be described as dramatic ones.
The resignation of the government and of a number of high-ranking officials
became top news in my country and attracted serious attention abroad. How
to assess it?

I personally participated in all the consultations undertaken by the
President during this crisis. As far as this process was under strong public
scrutiny and all the details became well-known to the mass media and the
whole society I would limit myself only to drawing a conclusion.

And my conclusion is that these events are an evidence of democracy, a part
of a democratic process in my country. This is the main substance of what
happened. In analyzing this process one should not be lost in details. Then
one will see the whole forest - not just the trees.

I regret that yesterday's brothers in arms, who had gone through extremely
difficult years of fighting for democracy, follow different paths today. But
this is what we mean by democracy - the right of people to choose freely
their way and to follow it without fear to be punished for their political
views.

There is no tragedy here - even if we are perfectly aware that unity among
national-democratic forces is better for the country and internal skirmish
is not.

Democracy is something to which people in my country have already
gotten used to. Now the realities in Ukraine are such that the political
elite and the whole society do not discuss democracy and human rights
inside the country as much as they used to one year ago.

Now they discuss, argue, agree or disagree on other, more ordinary for a
normal democratic country, things like economic policy, efficiency of public
administration, quality of services to citizens, small and medium
enterprises or investors. Or they discuss preparations for new elections,
where the strongest political force shall win.

The enthusiasm of the first months after the Orange revolution has been
transformed into the healthy pragmatism of a young rapidly developing
modern society. Which is not a tragedy but the most natural thing in the
world.

The revolutionary romantics transformed into political pragmatism. This was
inevitable and is understandable inasmuch as the transformation of political
forces, as changes in the government and in the team of President
Yushchenko.

My conclusion about the developments in my country is that catharsis was
necessary to ensure that the values of Maidan, hopes and expectations of
Ukrainians will not be betrayed.

And hopes and expectations not only of Ukrainians.

We clearly understand that the further development of the whole region,
the image of democracy and civil society far beyond our borders depend
now on our success.

While visiting Washington half a year ago I was talking about our revolution
as a "Ukrainian experiment".

Will the so called Western model of democracy take roots in Ukrainian
ground? Will Ukraine become a showcase to its neighbors? Will the chain of
peaceful democratic shifts continue or will it break off and bog down in the
post-Soviet realities?

I am optimistic about the answers. Democracy being on the rise is a
universal tendency. It can suffer setbacks but cannot be defeated.
The last decade of Ukrainian history provides a compelling proof for this.

Democracy takes root on the rockiest ground. Quasi-democracies, like
Kuchma regime, might be satisfactory for transitional period but in the long
term they never satisfy people's natural desire for freedom.

"You can fool some people sometimes, but you can't fool all the people all
the time." - goes the well known saying. Dictators and quasi-dictators are
not forever. Tyrannies and quasi-tyrannies start to wobble when you least
expect this, when they seem to be as strong as never before.

One more lesson that we learned from Ukraine's recent history is that one
should never underestimate the power of example in politics. Europe,
ascending from the ruins of the World War II stood an example for Poland and
other Eastern European countries. Poland, in its turn, stood example to us,
Ukrainians.

That's why we are saying: the success of Ukraine is not just a matter of our
own resolve and historic destiny. Ukraine, together with Georgia and
Kyrgyzstan, has a potential to define some important tendencies on the
post-Soviet space in general.

Either this region will be finally transformed into a natural part of
Euroatlantic civilization, based on common European democratic goals
and values, or it will develop into a separate quasi-civilization - with
quasi-democracy, quasi-goals and quasi-values.

It is our national interests, our responsibility and our mission to ensure
that the first way is chosen, not the second.

This is the main reason why the President of Ukraine and Georgia decided to
come up with a new initiative - the Community of Democratic Choice (CDC).

The background is clear. The idea to create a Community of Democratic
Choice is based on the victory of democracy in both countries and our
common understanding that democracy in the region is of benefit for
everyone.

The vision is clear as well. We want to integrate our forces to promote
democracy in the region. We want to create a community of democratic
countries in the huge region between three seas - Baltic, Black and Caspian.

We see it as a community of nations, which considers human freedoms as
the highest value and the ultimate yardstick by which to measure success of
the statehood.

In the Joint Statement in Borzhomi last month the Presidents of Ukraine and
Georgia invited the Leaders of the Baltic-Black-Caspian Sea region, who
share our vision of a new Europe, our faith in the future and potential of
this area and our democratic goals, to join the first meeting of the
Community of "Democratic Choice".

The Borzhomi Statement of Presidents Yuschenko and Saakashvili reflects
their willingness and readiness to send a very clear political signal to all
countries of the region: democratic values is an air to breathe not only in
separate parts of the world. Democracy is a natural state of things for all
countries - whatever their languages, traditions or cultures are.

The CDC is not isolated from global developments, other similar initiative.
Moreover - this can only complement and reinforce the global tendency to
democracy and human rights.

Internationally, the Community of Democratic Choice could be associated as
the regional pattern of the Community of Democracies, initiated by former US
State Secretary M.Albright and Polish Foreign Minister S.Geremek. This
global initiative has already proved its usefulness as a forum for those,
who feel it important to cooperate in strengthening democracy, improving
public administration, fighting against corruption etc.

Our mission is to promote democracy and the culture of democracy, tolerance
and non-violence on post-Soviet space. As well as to support democratic
forces, to cooperate with civil society and the non­governmental sector.

Our objective is to clear out our region from all remaining dividing lines,
from violations of human rights, from any spirit of confrontation, from
frozen conflicts and thus to open a new era of democracy, security,
stability and lasting peace for the whole of Europe, from the Atlantic to
the Caspian Sea.

In its activity the Community could closely cooperate with Poland, Romania,
other Central, Southern and Eastern European countries, the EU, US, Russia
etc. The Community should act in harmony with the efforts of other players,
including the OSCE.

I would like to especially emphasize that there is a great potential of GUAM
in promoting these objectives.

But both - GUAM and CDC have their own role.

With a view of its goals the best format, in which CDC could function and
succeed, is not a formal international organization, but an initiative or a
process.

While GUAM is expected to become a full-fledged international organization,
the Community of Democratic Choice should be a non formalized process of
cooperation in different dimensions: governmental, non-governmental,
parliamentarian, dialogue between political parties, NGOs, youth etc.

The main mechanisms of the CDC should be conferences, joint projects,
events focused on the goal of the Coalition.

I would like to make it clear: this initiative is not about political
ambitions or the export of revolution.

We have many articles in our export list and revolution is not there. We
can not export revolution like say, grain, machinery, airplanes, rockets,
satellites or even spaceships.

It is just impossible to export revolution or democracy - nations have to
come to it themselves and to do it when all internal conditions are met.
The consequences of the artificial acceleration of internal processes can
bring unpredictable results.

We can only support democracy, help civil societies, discuss on official and
non-official levels how to construct it. And this is exactly what we want to
do in the framework of the CDC.

By launching the CDC Ukraine wants to indicate: democracy is crucial and
natural to our peoples.

We disagree with skeptics saying: economic prosperity first and democracy
second. We disagree with those saying: without necessary historical
experience democracy is doomed to fail. It's never too late and never too
early to embark on the democratic way. And there are NO geopolitical cases
where human freedoms are unimportant or marginal.

The CDC is supposed to give its participants a completely informal yet
regular forum to discuss political developments in their countries from the
viewpoint of human freedoms and to form genuine democracy.

On this way every country of the region has its own record, own achievements
and own problems. The CDC will give a possibility to share and discuss all
of them.

By participants I mean both the official representatives and NGO's as a
crucial part of any civil society.

Aside from its founding members the CDC will be open to guests and
observers. We expect both the US and Russian Federation to play an
important role in supporting this new international process and its further
activities.

Dear friends,

Let me stress once again: the CDC is not an initiative directed against
third parties. We do not intend to judge and criticize. We intend to think,
to speak, to share our experience, to discuss problems, to help each other.

I would like especially to underline that the mission of CDC is not even to
discuss - I do not say "to implement" - absurd ideas that democratic
revolutions were inspired by the West against Russia.

The mission of the CDC - and Ukraine as well - is to finally unite Europe.
Unite not on the "balance of powers", but on the "balance of ideals".

During the Orange revolution Ukrainian-speaking and Russian-speaking
Ukrainians, people from the Eastern and Western regions of the country
stood shoulder to shoulder on the Maidan of Independence in Kyiv. They
were united by what we call universal values - human dignity, strive for
freedom and justice.

To me the revolutionary Maidan has become the prototype of the new
Ukraine where diverse languages, culture, origin do not divide but enrich
the nation. Those, fortunate to be on the streets of revolutionary Kyiv
confirm that there has been no room either for nationalism or chauvinism
there. The whole revolution was about restoration of human dignity and
not about contradictions between the West and East.

This is the spirit we intend to promote in our region.

It's quite obvious though, that the Ukrainian-Russian horizon is not without
clouds. But they are coming from a different direction than some used to
think erroneously. We have with Russia a common tragic history. During
decades we were the parts of one totalitarian state. We do not discard this
history that has both its good and bad.

But we are not looking for our future in our past.

Ukraine doesn't seek to invent its own model of democracy or market
economy. We just want to cover the same path that brought success and
prosperity to the Eastern European countries in the last decade. And the
key to this is democratic values plus liberal market economy.

Why to look for a separate way to success, if right in front of us there is
such an impressive success story as the European Union? It's true that the
EU experiences difficult times as a political union. It by no means
influences its ability to be a showcase and an influential regional player
in matters where EU-members are unanimous.

The promotion of democracy is undoubtedly one of them. I guess, one of the
reasons why the European Union ran out of power all of a sudden, was the
lack of new ideas and targets to focus on. The support of democracy in the
strategic Baltic - Black sea - Caspian region can be as favorable to the EU
as to the CDC countries.

It can give the EU what some Europeans have been missing since the last
wave of enlargement - a new idea, a new breath, a new message to bring to
others, a new horizon to reach to.

We expect the EU to be not only the inspiration to Europe outside the Union.
We want it to be an active player in the whole political space throughout
Europe. We expect the EU as an organization and separate EU-members to
be active participants of the Community.

Dear friends,

Archimedes used to say: "Give me the place to stand and I will move the
Earth".

And this is what we have done by the Orange revolution and what we do by
creating the Community of Democratic Choice - we create a place to stand.

To stand for democracy and to move the world of injustice. I am pretty
sure -

God will help us. Thank you. -30-

[Edited by The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) Monitoring Service]
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4. YUSHCHENKO ENDS TRIUMPHAL U.S. VISIT WITH NATIONAL TV SHOW

By FirsTnews Special Correspondent
Reno Domenico In Philadelphia
FirsTnews, Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Sep 19, 2005

After what most would judge to have been a triumphal visit to the United
States, President Viktor Yushchenko may almost regret having to come home to
everyday life.

However, he will bring home with him memories of an immense and warm
greeting in Philadelphia, the city that considers itself the cradle of
American democracy, capped off with a national television appearance on one
of the country’s premier talk shows, Larry King Live.

For Yushchenko, these were moments to be savored and remembered as he
returns to the more mundane chores of governing Ukraine.

PHILADELPHIA, Sept. 18 (FirsTnews) -- "The Orange Revolution is alive and
well in Philadelphia!" was the opening statement of Philadelphia Mayor John
Street’s welcome to Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko Saturday on the
stage in front of the National Constitution Center in the shadow of
Independence Hall.

Stating what the thousands of onlookers already knew, Mayor Street captured
the emotion of the moment when he said, "A lesser man may simply have quit!"

With that, Mayor Street proclaimed the “orange-ing” of Philadelphia as he
pointed out that the lights on the Benjamin Franklin Bridge joining New
Jersey and Pennsylvania would glow orange throughout the evening, as would
the lights on the Ben Franklin Parkway, the most spacious urban thoroughfare
in the world, also glow orange, and all of the city’s central fountains and
essential monuments were bathed in orange.

It was truly an exciting moment for all those in attendance, Ukrainian and
non Ukrainian alike, to see the symbols, emotions, and central personalities
present in their hometown, Philadelphia, much as it was on the Maidan last
winter.

If anyone doubted that Yushchenko and his Orange Revolution had made their
impact in the United States, those doubts were erased by the thousands of
men, women, and children gathered on American Constitution Day to see their
hero.

Yushchenko himself, sitting calmly in the sweltering September heat
reminiscent of those days more than 200 years ago when the Constitution
was adopted, responded warmly to the chants and thunderous applause that
greeted him when he accepted the prestigious Liberty Medal.

Yushchenko, flanked by his wife Katerina, was also joined on the podium
under the watchful eye of world heavy heavyweight champion Vladimir
Kilitschko and Ukrainian Rada member Mykhailo Volyents.

Later in the evening Yushchenko was honored at a black-tie dinner held at
the Constitution Center sponsored by the Philadelphia Foundation, the
corporate underwriter of the Liberty Medal. Once again, the room was
electric as Yushchenko speaking much more conversationally genuinely
captured the affection of the 300 plus attendees by sincerely expressing
appreciation for the honor bestowed upon him and the people of Ukraine.

Yushchenko, for his part, accepted the medal in the name of the people of
Ukraine. Yushchenko said he was accepting the medal as an "an oath of faith
and would pass the medal onto his children. These are the signs of freedom;
they remind us of the price that was paid for it."

For about two decades, the CNN network program, Larry King Live has been
one of the most watched programs on American television. There was what
appears to have been a particularly noteworthy moment during Yushchenko’s
Saturday night appearance on this lengthy national interview program when
Yushchenko said something new in answering questions about his poisoning.

When asked by King how he survived such a high dose of dioxin, Yushchenko
replied that he “didn’t eat and drink all that had been prepared because
some people told me not to do so.” He added that the “few” people he
suspects of the poisoning are not all in Ukraine. However, Yushchenko said,
“Some are!” -30- [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LINK with photos: http://www.firstnews.com.ua/en/article.html?id=99621
LINK with more photos: http://firstnews.com.ua/en/article.html?id=99779
==============================================================
5. VICTOR YUSHCHENKO'S ADDRESS ON THE OCCASION OF
RECEIVING THE PHILADELPHIA LIBERTY MEDAL, SAT, SEP 17, 2005

Press office of the President of Ukraine Victor Yushchenko
Kyiv, Ukraine, Sunday, September 18, 2005

Ladies and gentlemen!

I am grateful to the United States and U.S. Government. I am thankful to the
Award Committee. I am honored to be with you at this wonderful place. I
would like to express my special gratitude to the Ukrainian community.

You know, it is very warm, pleasant and cozy to see posters reading
'Greetings from Tysmenytsya' or 'Greetings from Trenopil,' hundreds of
people dressed in national costumes and dozens of national flags
thousands of miles away from my motherland. Thank you so much for this.

Thank you for loving Ukraine however far you live from your country.

I am honored to celebrate your Constitution Day in the city where it was
matured. More than two hundred years ago a bell that bears a divine
inscription pealed out to declare its birth.

Those peals are still echoing all around the world. Peoples hear the bell
and understand its language. Only freedom can protect such precious things
as children, family, work and welfare. Only democracy can make people
respect their natural rights granted by the Creator.
Signing the Constitution, its fathers were aware of their high mission.

"We work for the benefit of all mankind," said Thomas Jefferson.

Our history proves that he was right.

The authors of the Constitution and Declaration knew that their creation had
absorbed all precious treasures of freedom. Ukraine also contributed its
mite to that experience.

The Ukrainian nation is proud of writing Europe's first constitution. Its
author, Pylyp Orlyk, was the first national leader who took oath on the
Constitution in 1710. He believed that "rights and liberties are granted to
people by God."

The American Constitution made a breakthrough in that century long struggle
for freedom. I am excited to think this is the place where its triumphant
way started. It has been living for almost two centuries. It cannot be
stopped by iron curtains or barbed-wire fences. The Polish Solidarity, Czech
Revolution or fall of the Berlin Wall show that democracy changed the whole
European continent. The Ukrainian nation is first to continue these changes
in the 21st century!

The peaceful and spectacular Orange Revolution demonstrated its power of
freedom. It showed that Ukrainians respected human dignity, justice and
independence. These values remain in hearts of millions of people. They
took to streets to battle for these principles. They stood up and won!

Dear ladies and gentlemen!

I am honored to be decorated with the Philadelphia Liberty Medal.

I am grateful to the Philadelphia Foundation and all noble people that
nominated and supported me. Dear friends, thank you for your respect and
support. Thank you for believing in my hard work.

Thank you for this honor. I would like to reiterate that millions of my
fellow citizens will share it with me. They deserve this award for their
patience, courage and dignity. I am dedicating this award to all citizens of
the free and democratic Ukraine.

The Ukrainian nation chose its democratic way to the future. We will never
turn back.

"When freedom takes root, its growth can never be stopped," said George
Washington. "Freedom cannot be stopped," repeated the people, standing
in the Orange Maidan. We will never break this oath.

Freedom and democracy helped the American nation turn deserts and
steppes into this wonderful and prosperous country. They encourage
Ukrainians to restore their country. Our aim is to make all citizens
confident in their future and ensure justice.

We regard our country as a territory of the free prospering economy and
high social standards. We regard it as a part of the united Europe. We
see ourselves in this big family of democratic nations.

Ladies and gentlemen!

This road ahead is challenging but we are ready to overcome it. We have
already started to change our life. I am convinced that only a powerful and
free nation can achieve such results so fast. You can freely express your
opinion in Ukraine. There are no topics or individuals that cannot be
discussed or criticized. Next year we are having our first fair elections.

Ukraine should do much to eradicate poverty. However, millions of people
are hopeful. Solidarity and responsibility are becoming a norm for the
state.

The government wants to be a partner for businesses.

Our democracy is insipient and we should all learn to live in its bright
light.

I am convinced that our nation is strong enough to be responsible for the
state and its fate. It will never plunge into civil fights. Responsible
politicians are uniting to make the country prosper. Democratic changes
will only be introduced democratically.

I appreciate your unique respect for the Constitution, which is also
manifested at this ceremonial place.

I am sure we can change the Constitution only when all politicians and
people reach mutual understanding. It should belong to generations of
people and never be re-written to please politicians.

Dear friends!

We will never forget solidarity Americans and other democratic nations
demonstrated at that decisive time for our nation. We managed to construct
a firm bridge that unites us. We built it from such solid materials as our
common beliefs in good and evil. I believe we will work hard on this bridge
in both directions.

Today, we are condoling with the United States over the Katrina disaster.
Ukraine was one of the first countries to offer its help. We believe that
the American nation will transform its spiritual power into its creative
power.

This millennium brings us new challenges, threats and crises. John Kennedy
once said that the Chinese used two hieroglyphs to spell the word 'crisis.'
The first means 'danger' but the second means 'possibilities.' I believe
that unity of all free nations based on genuinely democratic values will
reveal unseen possibilities. We will jointly use them.

Dear friends!

I accept this medal as an oath to loyalty. I will pass it on to my children
along with the WWII medals of my father who was a war prisoner. They are
equal to me - these are tokens of freedom gained by the nation. They
remind us of the price we paid for it and our obligation to preserve this
God's precious gift. This is our obligation. We will preserve it.

God bless America!

God guard Ukraine!

Thank you -30-

[The Action Ukraine Report (AUR) Monitoring Service]
==============================================================
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6. UKRAINE FACES SHOWDOWN OVER CONFIRMATION OF
NEW PRIME MINISTER YEKHANUROV

By Tom Warner in Kiev, Financial Times, London, UK, Tue, Sep 20 2005

Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine's president, today faces a showdown in parliament
that could push the country deeper into crisis.

Parliament was scheduled to vote this morning on whether to confirm Mr
Yushchenko's nominee, Yuri Yekhanurov, as prime minister in succession to
the flamboyant Yulia Tymoshenko, whom Mr Yushchenko dismissed this month,
hoping to assert his authority.

The country has been thrown into turmoil by the conflict between Mr
Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko, who united in the popular revolt called the
Orange Revolution last year but have since fallen out over policy and
patronage.

Late yesterday, the president and his allies were engaged in a last-minute
scramble for support but unofficial counts among the 14 factions and 23
independent deputies showed Mr Yekhanurov falling about 10 votes short of a
majority.

A rejection from parliament would prevent Mr Yushchenko from forming a new
cabinet and would make his opponents, led Ms Tymoshenko, bolder. They are
calling for the president to hand over power to parliament by bringing
for-ward the implementation of constitutional reforms due to take effect in
January.

Volodymyr Lytvyn, parliament's speaker, who supports Mr Yekhanurov, said:
"If the vote fails, a period of uncertainty and instability will follow.
Ukraine doesn't need that."

Mr Lytvyn said parliament had no way to force Mr Yushchenko to bring forward
the reforms, and Ukraine badly needed a government to run the country until
parliamentary elections due in March.

The president's troubles stem largely from the fact that supporters of the
Orange Revolution are poorly represented in parliament, elected in 2002
under Leonid Kuchma. Mr Yushchenko's decision this month to sack Ms
Tymoshenko has reduced his support, forcing him to reach out to former
opponents.

Mr Yushchenko held a closed-door meeting yesterday with Viktor Yanukovich,
his former arch-rival, who ran against Mr Yushchenko in last year's
presidential elections. But Mr Yanukovich's Regions party seemed in no mood
yesterday for a deal. Activists set up collection centres around Kiev where
disappointed Orange Revolution supporters could turn in their pro-Yushchenko
paraphernalia.

Meanwhile, Mr Yekhanurov met one of the swing factions in parliament, United
Ukraine, made up mainly of businessmen who supported Mr Yanukovich in last
year's election but have since leaned towards Ms Tymoshenko. Three other
factions of former Yanukovich supporters have pledged their support for Mr
Yekhanurov. Some are expected to take seats in the cabinet.

Unlike Mr Yushchenko's first cabinet, which was publicly announced before Ms
Tymoshenko's confirmation hearing, Mr Yushchenko has kept the composition
of Mr Yekhanurov's cabinet secret. Under Ukraine's constitution, the prime
minister must be confirmed by parliament, but the rest of the cabinet does
not require confirmation. -30- [The Action Ukraine Report]
==============================================================
7. UKRAINE PRES SCRAMBLES TO GET SUPPORT FOR ACTING PM

Associated Press (AP), Kiev, Ukraine, Mon, September 19, 2005

KIEV - President Viktor Yushchenko scrambled Monday to secure the
necessary support for his candidate for prime minister amid growing signs
that the Ukrainian parliament would block his choice.

Failure to approve acting Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov's candidacy would
plunge Ukraine into another crisis after the dramatic sacking of popular
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, as Yushchenko needs to get a new
government in place.

Yekhanurov must win 226 votes to be named prime minister by the 450-
member parliament. But as of Monday evening, he had only 199 promised
votes and little room to maneuver, with opposition parties either opposing
him on principle or as a show of loyalty to the ousted Tymoshenko.

Yushchenko planned a series of meetings with faction leaders in a last-ditch
effort. He even met with losing presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych for
the first time since their heated presidential battle last year. Yanukovych
heads the Party of the Regions, which has a 52-person parliamentary bloc
that had said it would abstain.

"Arithmetic in politics doesn't prove anything, wait another day," said
Yanukovych's spokeswoman, Anna German, couldn't immediately comment on
whether the Party of the Region's position had changed after the meeting
with Yushchenko, who called for the emotions and "negative tendencies" from
last year's race to be left in the past.

Yekhanurov needs to win over some of parliament's opposition parties, since
he has little chance of wooing those factions loyal to the ousted
Tymoshenko.

Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn described the situation as very fluid.
Much of the horse trading was likely to revolve around seats in the Cabinet,
which Yekhanurov would begin putting together if his candidacy is approved.

Adam Martynyuk, vice speaker of parliament and a member of the Communist
Party, described the negotiations this way: "It's like for our 14 votes, we
want nine ministerial positions or for our 30, we demand 20 posts."

Many lawmakers have said that they see the Russian-born Yekhanurov as a
moderate candidate, and analysts largely agree he is a good choice and a
neutral figure without any big political ambitions of his own. Yushchenko
appointed him after firing Tymoshenko and dismissing her government on Sept.
8 amid escalating battles within the Orange Revolution team.

"He's a good economist and an outstanding manager," said Anders Aslund, the
director of the Russia and Eurasian program at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, in a conference call Monday. "Adopting his candidacy by
parliament will mean improving relations with Russia and improving the
Ukrainian economy."

But Leonid Kravchuk, Ukraine's first president and a leader of the
opposition Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United) faction, which has 20
lawmakers, wasn't moved. "Our principled stand is that we shall not vote
even for an angel because we are in opposition," he said.

The Communists also said Monday that they wouldn't support Yekhanurov, but
Ukrainian news agencies suggested talks were continuing with the 56-member
faction behind the scenes.
If Yekhanurov's candidacy fails to win on the first vote, talks will
continue and his name could be put up for another vote.

Tymoshenko won a record-breaking 373 votes in February when she was
nominated as prime minister after last year's Orange Revolution protests
helped usher the opposition into power. After her dismissal, Yushchenko
accused her of abuse of office. She has denied all the allegations. -30-
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8. SACKED UKRAINE PRIME MINISTER ALLEGES SEX BIAS

Agence France Presse, Kiev, Ukraine, Tue, Sep 20, 2005

KIEV - Ukraine's sacked premier Yulia Tymoshenko said that President Viktor
Yushchenko fired her because he couldn't handle political competition from a
woman and that he was aware of corruption allegations against his entourage
long before they became public.

"Let's be honest, men have a hard time competing with women on a
professional level," she told AFP a day before parliament was to vote on the
candidacy of her successor, Yushchenko's trusted ally Yury Yekhanurov.

"For a little while, this political jealousy took second place to his need
for my help," she said. "And when it appeared at first glance that this help
was no longer needed, the political competition won."

Tymoshenko said that Yushchenko dismissed her government on September
8 because the ratings of the charismatic premier exceeded his own, and in
order to divert attention from allegations of corruption among his
entourage.

"According to all polls, my popularity in the country is higher than the
president's," she said. "This is simply an unreadiness to compete fairly."
According to one poll released a month before the government dismissal, some
41.5 percent of Ukrainians trusted Tymoshenko, compared with 35.8 percent
who trusted the president.

Tymoshenko, who roused crowds during last year's "orange revolution," has
accused the president's team of trying to discredit her during her time in
office and after her dismissal but the 44-year-old, known for her iron will,
warned that she would not go down easily.

"The president's entourage is conducting an all-out war against me," she
said. "I would like Viktor Yushchenko and his team to remember that during
eight years (former president Leonid) Kuchma with all his big guns... could
not destroy me or my political party," she said.

"And I would like for Viktor Yushchenko's team not to choose the same
course." During the former regime, Tymoshenko was jailed for more than a
month after being charged with embezzlement and other charges as part of a
lengthy criminal case, which lasted for years and was closed after
Yushchenko's inauguration.

Following her dismissal Tymoshenko announced that she was breaking with her
"orange revolution" partner and since then the two camps have lobbed almost
daily salvoes, accusing each other of everything from lacking
professionalism to graft.

On Monday Tymoshenko said that Yushchenko was aware of allegations that
some of his closest associates were using their government posts to enrich
themselves long before his former chief of staff, Olexander Zinchenko, came
out in public with the accusations.

"I can say that the president knew all the nuances and absolutely knew the
full picture of what was going on," she said in her interview with AFP.

Why the president did not react to the allegations "remains a question mark
for me." Tymoshenko said that she did not believe that the investigation
that Yushchenko had ordered into the allegations would be conscientious. "I
am certain that the president will not rid himself of his entourage," she
said. "It's more to let off steam in society."

At the same time, Tymoshenko said she did not want to engage in a war of
accusations with the president. "I don't want to participate in any wars,"
she said. "I simply want to partake in an honest, competitive campaign ahead
of parliamentary elections," she said.

Tymoshenko said that she would not join forces with parties who opposed last
year's "orange revolution." "We will only unite with those forces who...
were on our side during the orange revolution," she said.
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9. POTENTIAL FOR UKRAINE

By Barbara Wall, International Herald Tribune (IHT)
Europe, Monday, September 19, 2005

Fund managers seldom react positively when political infighting gets in the
way of market reform. But the dismissal of Yulia Tymoshenko as prime
minister of Ukraine and the collapse of the government coalition has
received an uncharacteristic thumbs up.

"Tymoshenko was widely seen as a populist with one agenda, which was to
collect votes, rather than work for the long-term benefit of the country,"
said Aivaras Abromavicius, manager of a Ukraine equity fund for East
Capital in Sweden.

By removing her from office this month, President Viktor Yushchenko "has
strengthened his hand before parliamentary elections in March and paved the
way for speedier reforms," Abromavicius said.

Matthias Siller, manager of an emerging markets fund for Raiffeisen Capital
Management in Vienna, said he also viewed the removal of Tymoshenko in a
positive light. "We could see a significant pickup in foreign direct
investment as investor confidence recovers," he said.

At the heart of the discord between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko was her
call for a wide-scale review of recent privatizations. During the presidency
of Leonid Kuchma, whom Yushchenko succeeded in January, dozens of
enterprises were suspected of being privatized under dubious circumstances.

Yushchenko appeared to be more willing to forgive and forget for the sake of
stability, Abromavicius said. Katia Malofeeva, an analyst at Renaissance
Capital in Moscow, said the second privatization of the largest steel
producer in the country, Krivorozhstal, scheduled for Oct. 24, could also
help lift investor morale.

"It is not often a steel company of this magnitude comes to market,"
Malofeeva said. "Although the investment preconditions are tough, there has
been significant interest from Russian and East European investors."

Despite the recent political uncertainty, the fledgling Ukrainian stock
market has risen over the summer. But if the experience of Russia and Latvia
is anything to go by, an investment in Ukraine is not going to be smooth.

Once voted one of the least corrupt countries in the world, Ukraine was
ranked among the 20 most corrupt nations in the latest survey by
Transparency International. Low levels of financial transparency and
corporate accountability have hindered foreign direct investment, and doubts
have been raised about the government's economic growth forecasts.

The International Monetary Fund reported last month that the Ukraine
government was unlikely to reach its target of 8 percent growth in gross
domestic product in 2006 because of decreasing industrial output and
accelerating inflation. A more likely figure is 5 percent, the IMF said.

Malofeeva pointed to Ukraine's social welfare system as an additional cause
for concern. The country has a population of 50 million, of which 14 million
are retirees. A further four million are dependent on state benefits.

"Whoever wins the parliamentary elections will have to address this issue,"
Malofeeva said. "We have cautioned investors not to expect a capitalist
economy to develop overnight, let alone within the next year or two."

Tim Ash, managing director of emerging markets for Bear Stearns in London,
said Ukraine's troubled relationship with Russia, a key export market, would
have to be improved if the country was to move forward.

"The Russian government never wanted Yushchenko in power, and it has gone
out of its way to create difficulties for the regime, including
renegotiating energy prices and instigating a trade war over fuels," Ash
said. "Bridges have to be mended. The question is whether or not Russia is
prepared to listen."

Despite caveats, the long-term investment case for Ukraine is hard to
ignore.

"Ukraine is starting from a very low base," Abromavicius said. "Disposable
income is increasing, and the country is on the cusp of a consumer boom. Any
company involved in real estate, cement and construction looks attractive."

The Ukrainian stock market has a tiny free float of around 7 percent, and
liquidity is poor. The market is also dominated by energy and metals
companies, which no longer look cheap after their strong run over the summer
months. An alternative way to play the market is through a Ukraine proxy
like MTS, the Russian mobile telecommunications company that owns UMC,
the largest mobile operator in Ukraine.

Raiffeisen International, part of Raiffeisen Banking Group, is another
company with significant exposure to Ukraine. In August, the bank, based in
Austria, acquired Bank Aval, making Raiffeisen the No. 1 bank in Ukraine.

The growth potential for retail banking in Ukraine is compelling when
comparing GDP with the volume of lending to private customers. In the euro
zone, this ratio averages about 50 percent; in Ukraine, it is 4.5 percent.
==============================================================
10. UKRAINE'S ORANGE SPLIT

EDITORIAL: The Washington Post
Washington, D.C., Monday, September 19, 2005

UKRAINE'S DEMOCRATIC revolution has ended the way most do, with
the victorious coalition dividing into factions that are now battling each
other. For the most part, this is a healthy development. The Orange
Revolution movement that overturned a corrupt and autocratic regime last
year was united by the cause of democracy and independence from Russia.

Once that was achieved, ideological and policy differences were bound to
surface. In Ukraine's case, President Viktor Yushchenko, a moderate and
market-oriented reformer, has finally split with Prime Minister Yulia
Tymoshenko, who espouses populist and statist policies. No violence has
accompanied their rupture, and a parliamentary election scheduled for
March provides a good opportunity for the country to choose between them.

In the short term, the split may well help stabilize Ukraine's economy,
which has been turbulent ever since the revolution. After firing Ms.
Tymoshenko and her cabinet, Mr. Yushchenko nominated a respected
technocrat, Yuri Yekhanurov, as prime minister. Mr. Yekhanurov, who is
likely to win parliamentary approval, probably will put a stop to the
disruptive populism that the previous government frequently pursued,
including huge increases in spending and attempts to control commodity
prices.

He will also limit the renationalization of state industries that
were privatized by the previous autocratic government; though many of
these transactions were corrupt, the government's seizures and plans for
resale have raised their own questions.

Like last year's presidential campaign, the parliamentary elections will
present Ukrainians with stark and potentially disruptive choices. Mr.
Yushchenko is likely to offer continued market reforms and integration of
Ukraine with Western institutions but also good relations with Russia; the
more charismatic Ms. Tymoshenko will rail against big business and
promise more social spending.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who could not contain his glee over the
government breakdown, will hope that the pro-Moscow politicians he so
aggressively backed last year will somehow seize the advantage. Western
governments can hope that Ukraine continues steps toward joining
institutions such as the World Trade Organization and cleans up lingering
corruption.

But the most vital interest will be ensuring that, whatever the outcome,
Ukraine preserves the democracy its people demanded and won.
==============================================================
11. GEORGIA/UKRAINE: CITIZENS SEE NO IMPROVE IN SOCIETY,
ECONOMY AFTER REVOLUTIONS

By Jean-Christophe Peuch
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Prague, Czech Republic, Mon, Sep 19, 2005

Presidents Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia and Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine
both rose to power on a combination of factors, including public anger at
rampant corruption in the then-ruling regimes. Georgia's economic
degradation and Ukraine's poor human rights record also helped fuel the
countries' peaceful political changes -- Georgia's Rose Revolution in 2003
and Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004. But in both countries, the
post-revolutionary euphoria is now over.

PRAGUE, 19 September 2005 (RFE/RL) -- Ten months ago, Georgia marked
the first anniversary of the Rose Revolution that toppled the government of
former Soviet Politburo member Eduard Shevardnadze.

Davit Zurabishvili, a one-time human-rights activist, joined Saakashvili's
party at the time, and went on to become a deputy chairman of the
pro-government majority group in parliament. In an interview with RFE/RL
last November, he said the political upheaval had mixed results.

"The main achievement of the Rose Revolution is that a genuine democratic
statehood is now in the making," Zurabishvili said. "The process has been
launched, so to speak. Under Shevardnadze -- particularly during the last
two to three years of his rule -- we had reached deadlock. State structures
were decaying, the economy was crumbling, and corruption was taking on
considerable proportions. This is a fact. In principle, the Rose Revolution
helped us get out of this deadlock."

Zurabishvili said he regretted a lack of progress on human-rights issues.
But among the positive achievements of the new leadership, he cited the
ousting of Aslan Abashidze, the rebellious leader of the autonomous
republic of Ajara, and efforts made to improve conditions for soldiers
serving in the country's armed forces.

Three weeks ago, however, Zurabishvili publicly resigned from the
parliament majority. Speaking to RFE/RL's Georgian Service, he said he
had become disillusioned with Saakashvili.

"He made the wrong strategic choices, provided we can talk of 'strategic
choices' in a country where chaos is prevailing and where there is no
clear-cut policy," Zurabishvili said. "His main strategic goal is [to
restore] Georgia's territorial integrity. He believes that to achieve this
we need to build up a strong army and concentrate all powers in a few
hands and that all the rest is secondary. I believe it should the other way
around. We cannot settle the territorial integrity issue without first
making Georgia a democratic and economically strong country."

Zurabishvili has linked his resignation to the controversial arrest of
television journalist Shalva Ramishvili on charges of blackmailing
pro-government deputy Koba Bekauri.

Ramishvili, who was remanded in custody for three months, denies the
accusations brought against him. He says he was framed while probing
Bekauri's alleged financial misdeeds.

Critics say Ramishvili's arrest is yet another episode in what they say is
the new Georgian leadership's battle against independent media.

Ghia Nodia, the chairman of the Tbilisi-based Caucasus Institute for Peace,
Democracy, and Development, recently noted in an article for RFE/RL's
website that Saakashvili remains wildly popular among Georgians,
however autocratic his rule may seem.

It is unclear, however, whether his team enjoys the same popularity.

Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli has backed a number of controversial
decisions, including a move to ban street peddlers and collective taxis
from the center of Tbilisi and other Georgian cities.

The ban triggered street protests in a country where the unemployment rate
is believed to have soared past 30 percent. Critics called on the
government to find new jobs for all those left without income because of
the new regulations.

Noghaideli also said last month that budget constraints would force his
cabinet to postpone until next year the payment of wage arrears and the
launching of a relief program to help the poorest of Georgia's 4 million
residents.

Results of a study conducted last May by the U.S.-based InterMedia Survey
Institute show 66 percent of Georgians remain dissatisfied with the
economy, with more than half saying their life has not improved since the
Rose Revolution.

The survey also shows Georgians' primary concerns remain unemployment
and corruption.

In Ukraine, corruption has been a recurring theme in recent political
developments.

President Viktor Yushchenko last week sacked Prime Minister Yuliya
Tymoshenko's cabinet amid accusations that government officials had been
pursuing private interests while implementing Ukraine's new privatization
program. Tymoshenko has said she will challenge Yushchenko's team in next
year's legislative polls.

Yushchenko last week said nearly half of Ukraine's economy remains tied to
"shadow" enterprises that fall outside government control and contribute no
state taxes.

Former Security Minister Oleskandr Turchynov -- a member of Tymoshenko's
team -- this week made it clear corruption would dominate the upcoming
election campaign.

"We see ourselves heading for victory," Turchynov said. "The real power
that we will seize will help us stem corruption and bring order in the
country."

It was allegations of corruption against members of Ukraine's former ruling
elite that helped Yushchenko rise to victory in the disputed 2004
presidential polls.

But whether accusations of corruption will appeal to Ukrainian voters in
the upcoming election campaign is in question.

Andriy Bychenko, head of the sociology department at the Oleskandr
Razumkov Center for Economic and Political Studies in Kyiv, told RFE/RL
that Ukrainians do not seem overly preoccupied with the legality of their
leaders' financial activities.

"In the view of the population, the main problem in Ukraine today is that
the salaries and pensions remain low while prices are going up," Bychenko
said.

Bychenko said his department last month conducted an opinion survey that
shows most Ukrainians believe their economic situation has not improved
since the 2004 Orange Revolution.

"Twenty-one percent of our respondents think the overall economic situation
has improved, compared to 42 percent who believe it has deteriorated,"
Bychenko said. "Those who think their personal welfare has increased are
17 percent, while 39 percent think it has deteriorated. The rest either
think there hasn't been any changes, or cannot answer."

Official statistics seem to support these statistics.

Government figures show Ukraine's gross domestic product in August 2005
was lower than that in August 2004 -- the first such decline since 1999.
Industrial production and investments have been steadily shrinking in the
past few months.

Whether Yushchenko's decision to part with Tymoshenko will help him restore
his postrevolution popularity will depend on the ability of the new cabinet
of Yuriy Yekhanurov to reverse the country's economic decline.

Bychenko said his recent opinion survey shows that only 37 percent of
Ukrainians believe their new leaders are better than the previous ruling
team.

Twenty-eight percent believe they are not different. Another 21 percent say
that they are worse. -30-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(Tamar Chikovani of RFE/RL's Georgian Service contributed to this report
from Tbilisi.) [The Action Ukraine Report Monitoring Service]
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12. WHAT'S BECOME OF THE 'COLOR REVOLUTIONS'?
Four U.S. experts examine the initial outcomes of the dramatic
political transformations that rocked Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine.

Washington ProFile, International Information Agency
A Russian-language news service dedicated to bridging the
distance between the United States and the former Soviet Union.
A project of the World Security Institute (WSI)
Washington, D.C., September, 2005

[1] Michael Svetlik, regional director for Europe and Asia programs
at IFES

Changes since the revolutions

I think in all three countries the so-called revolutions indicated the
potential for a new phase in political and societal development, in terms
of developing a new society with a representative political system. I
think in many respects the jury is still out. It's a little early to draw
conclusions. You see some positive signs of an energized civil society
continuing to be energized, continuing to play its role in a democratic
society.

But then again, we have also seen, most notably in Georgia, some
missteps by the current administration. Each of the three countries is of
course specific in terms of what brought about the revolution and what was
the catalyst for change, and thus, an assessment of the situation. I can't
say that each of those countries are exactly in the same phase in the
process of reform.

What we had in Georgia certainly was a landslide - there was a convincing
victory of the National Movement following the rerun of the parliamentary
elections and the snap presidential elections. You had a fractured
political stage that coalesced around the Saakashvili government and its
leaders and since then the opposition still has not put itself back
together again.

This differs greatly from Ukraine, where you have a solid
team against another solid team, and you still have a very fractured
populace and electorate that probably will continue to be so, probably up
to the parliamentary elections.

In Kyrgyzstan, it is probably more akin to Georgia in its dynamics, where
you have people simply galvanizing around a political leader to depose
the president and to move to something beyond that. It's still a fractured
opposition versus a somewhat unified
governing alliance.

Prospects for reform

The case is still very much out on whether these revolutions and the very
optimistic future that those that came into power promised may be realized,
but it's clear that one good, fair and free election does not make a
revolution. It does not guarantee success because in order to have a
vibrant democracy there is much more to it than an election.

One would hope that the media would be able to practice its craft in a free
atmosphere, which is largely the case, although in some cases there is some
stifling. It is hard to be against an extremely popular government, and
the critics are practicing some self-censorship. The next election cycle
will really determine and demonstrate the staying power of the revolution
and the revolutionaries.

[2] Mark von Hagen, professor of Russian and East European Studies,
Department of History, Columbia University

Changes since Ukraine's 'Orange Revolution'

.The main sentiment among Ukrainian friends and colleagues of mine is
somewhat of a disappointment in the new government. In some cases, even
more than disappointment. But still a sense that there might be some hope
that there will be some changes, and I think what we've been seeing in the
last couple of days are the beginnings of those changes.

When Yushchenko came to power in the so-called Orange Revolution, he
put together a government that was, like many such governments, a
compromise government comprised largely of the people who helped him
one way or another during the elections.

First of all, they can't get along with each other because
they are too ambitious and egotistical for their own sakes. So part of the
problem that is going on now is a sorting out of the egos in that very
complicated, somewhat compromised government that he put together. I
think at this particular moment in Ukraine's history, there is once again a
chance for something good to come out of this mess.

But the last half a year or so since the government has been in power
there have been scandals,disappointments, etc. It is not clear whether a
lot of progress has been made either with political reform, economic
reforms or judicial and military reforms, which have almost ground to
a halt.

On the other hand, for the foreign policy world, Ukraine's been very
actively assertively promoting its pro-Western ambitions - pro-EU,
pro-NATO, pro-US, and trying to work out some kind of new relationship
with Russia. But, again, I think a lot of that has been at the rhetorical
level instead of any kind of realistic, meaningful change in policy.

Possible developments

.There are going to be elections soon. I think in Spring of next year for
parliament. If something isn't reversed in the way things are going now,
Yushchenko could easily lose whatever majority he has in the parliament and
he could have an opposition parliament of people who don't want to work
with him anymore. And he'd be finished until another president could be
elected and that's pretty serious.

The other issue is the possibility of the constitutional reform getting
overturned, for which there is some momentum - the reform that was worked
out back in December when Yushchenko agreed to a medium-term transfer
of authority from the president to the prime minister, turning Ukraine back
into a parliamentary republic rather than the presidential republic it had
become under Kuchma.

If that happens, and there are people like Tymoshenko and Yuschenko
himself who would like to reverse that reform, saying it was agreed to
under duress and intimidation and all sorts of things, that would be one
outcome. If the reform goes through and the president in fact loses power
to the prime minister, then that is another scenario that will mean changes
in Ukraine one way or another.

Lessons learned

.I think those of us who had some hopes, and above all the population of
Ukraine itself, have learned that the reality is a little more messy than
the kind of idealism that I think came to the surface in November and
December. But I think that does not mean that people shouldn't fight for
their ideals. But what it does mean is that the fight is a lot harder, a
lot longer, and a lot more banal than the Orange Revolution would have
made people believe.

[3] Rafis Abazov, adjunct visiting professor at the Harriman Institute,
Columbia University, and author of 'Historical Dictionary of Turkmenistan'
(Scarecrow Press 2005)

Changes since the revolution in Kyrgyzstan

The most important thing that's occurred since then is the cooling of
emotions. If you recall, by March confrontation in Kyrgyzstan between the
two sides had reached a peak. Each party was ready to take extreme
measures to achieve their goals, and dialogue was completely lacking.At
that time, there was anarchy and chaos. We cannot say that all of that is
behind us now, but the situation is improving.

Prospects for reform

We can draw parallels between the situations in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and
Ukraine. Each country was full of conflict, which could have led to very
serious disorder. The revolutions, if we can call them that, released some
of the tension and brought new leaders to power.

At this moment, we don't know whether they will solve the problems and
carry through the promised social, economic and democratic reforms.
What we do know is that despite the democratic slogans and rhetoric of
change, each of the leaders in the three republics keeps bringing into
power the same kinds of people as before.

If the leaders are successful at increasing the middle class, which is the
class that most carefully considers its political positions, there is a
greater chance for stable economic and democratic development.

[4] James Wertsch, director of International and Area Studies at
Washington University in St. Louis

Changes since the revolutions

Georgia continues to be a very promising success story, at least in terms
of social indicators for nearly two years. The economy has grown, tourism
is up, and one of the most important indicators of success and trust in a
state is tax revenues.

In the last quarter, tax revenues exceeded even what they expected. That's
more important as an indicator than surveys and questionnaires, because
it shows not only a recognition of state power to enforce this tax
collection, but also a willingness to participate as a taxpayer in the
ongoing projects of the state.

I don't know much about tax revenue in Ukraine; it's still a little early to
tell. The last setback of Yuschenko firing the government is pretty alarming
and it's not clear exactly who is going to come out on top in the upcoming
parliamentary elections. So it's still very much a work in process, and I
think we ought to be more concerned about what is going on in Ukraine
then is the case in Georgia.

Prospects for reform

I think it's really unclear for Ukraine because they don't have a
government that's going to stay in power. The big difference in those
governments is that right after the Rose Revolution, there was a lot of
concern in Georgia as to whether they had a triumvirate - Zhvania,
Saakashvili, Burjanadze - whether they'd be able to stay together to form a
new government. The fear was that it would fragment and set everything
back. That has not happened.

Of course there was the tragic death of Zhvania, which is a very big loss to
Georgia because he was vital to day-to-day serious governmental work.
But they have still managed, for the most part, to retain some semblance of
unity, and the opposition is very weak so that's the major aspect of success
that Georgia's had to date, and that is exactly what's missing in Ukraine.

There were fears that if you put Tymoshenko and Yushchenko together in
one government that there would be too many factions and egos to work
under one umbrella, and the recent events showed that they couldn't keep
it together.

If things continue as they are now, I think Georgia has some very good
prospects for continuing to be the best laboratory for democracy and civil
society for the region. There are real indicators that the structural
reforms such as the economy are coming along. It is one thing to have
these political victories in the country, for example, to get the Russian
troop movement out., but the issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is still
unresolved.

Hopefully the Saakashvili government learned a year ago that
military incursions are just not going to be very productive in that
region. I think the best hope that they have is to be enough of an
economic success story that it gets to be so attractive to the people
around them, like to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, that they would want to
join instead of being a conduit and having a non-state kind of status.

.There are people asking whether the Rose Revolution is going to last. I
think that it will last, because a lot of the structural factors have
kicked in.The biggest thing that the Saakashvili government is missing -
which they may not want in the short term, but which is in the long term
most important for the future of the whole country - is . an impartial
judiciary. Also, they need a viable opposition that could talk civilly with
the Saakashvili government; the civic discourse is missing and there are
mutual accusations.

Ukraine, after recent events, which were fairly predictable, is much harder
to call. And it is more important - ten times as big as Georgia in
population, and as an economic power and in terms of cultural significance
to the region.

I hope it doesn't come to splitting Ukraine up into Ukrainian and Russian
areas, but I think it's in a much bigger state of limbo, and it's a
particularly problematic time for Ukraine now. -30-
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13. CROSSROADS OF A LABYRINTH
Many Ukrainians must be wishing it were just a bad dream.

COMMENTARY: By Yulia Mostovaya
Zerkalo Nedeli, Mirror-Weekly, No. 36 (564)
Kyiv, Ukraine, Sat 17-23 September, 2005

Many Ukrainians must be wishing it were just a bad dream. They must be
feeling like a child whose parents are divorcing, insulting each other and
shrugging off the responsibility.

Winding up her TV talk show "I Think So", Anna Bezulyk said, "May God help
us to keep our eyes open and to understand what we see!" This is a good
recommendation. But in the deep political crisis that broke out in this
country, few are able to see what's what and who's who, instead of giving up
on it all. It is never easy to build a democracy. I

In Ukraine democracy is only just cropping up in fragmentary patches.
Ukrainians already have the right to know, but they still do not know how to
use this knowledge. They still see no other ways, apart from elections, to
legitimately influence authorities. There are still no authoritative
leaders, who could dot the i's.

There are still doubts about the "cleanliness" of the law enforcement and
the judiciary. In other words, now the people have access to information
that can bring them to the boiling point, but the vapor vent lid is out of
their reach.

Yet, the masses have proven to be far more apt for democracy, conscientious,
and responsible than their leaders. Hence - disappointment and anger with
the latter, who have lost too much of their authority over the last
fortnight. Today, this country is in a grave political, moral, and
psychological crisis that is fraught with serious economic problems.

Before looking for a way out, we need to know where exactly we are.

Firstly, from the very start the President planted a time bomb by "blessing"
mutual control (i.e. competition and confrontation) between [National
Security and Defense Council Secretary] Petro Poroshenko and [Prime
Minister] Yulia Tymoshenko. For seven months he was unable to convert the
war of their ambitions into a healthy competition between their ambitions.

Finally, in response to accusations of corruption within his close
environment, Yushchenko "nulled the meter" and sacked the government. The
consequences are evident: the latent confrontation became open, acute, and
uncontrollable. Despite warnings, "war-mongers" in both wings of the
leadership took the initiative.

The war-mongers in Tymoshenko's camp may soon transform her image into that
of an "aggressor". The same may happen to Yushchenko, who still does not
give up on his odious entourage. Both risk public aversion, which is
tantamount to political death.

Today, the majority of Ukrainians are on Tymoshenko's side, but she and her
team should not be deluded, because true and false mutual accusations, which
are likely to dominate the seven-month-long election race, will erase the
difference between the right and the guilty. The avalanche of accusations
and claims will finally outweigh either side's authority and popular credit.

The outcome of this war is predictable: disillusionment and apathy in
society. And on the first anniversary of the Orange Revolution, which
Yushchenko has declared a national holiday, a mere score of people might
come to Independence Square, have a drink in silence, and go home.

If this war goes on, those who voted for Yushchenko and Tymoshenko last year
are likely to ignore the parliamentary elections in March while those who
supported Viktor Yanukovych and the Communists will go to the polls as one.
Others might support [Parliament Speaker] Volymyr Lytvyn's Popular Party.
Thus, the forces that discredited themselves last year will gain revenge and
the forces that discredited themselves this year will win.

SECOND, it is clear that the country has no government as such. The Cabinet
of Ministers is in limbo and cannot negotiate with Russia on fuel prices.
Nor can it find sources of revenue to patch the enormous holes in the
national budget. It can not decide what to do about the renationalized
companies, though the proceeds from their resale were supposed to cover
the bulk of "social expenditures".

The economic growth indices have dropped dramatically. The State Statistics
Committee has revised the target GDP growth rate, reducing it down to four
percent. And this revision may not be the last. There is no definite budget
revenue strategy, no money to fund social security programs, and no
prospects for any serious influx of investment.

The receipts from the customs and tax collectors are irregular and
ridiculously meager. The political project of the year - accession to the
World Trade Organization - has been practically wrecked. The national
economy, which needs prompt strategic decisions, is a hostage to this
"free-for-all".

Moreover, there are doubts about the appointment of the new Prime Minister
by Parliament: having endorsed the Declaration of Unity, the President
himself called into question one of its main provisions - the timely
enactment of amendments to the Constitution, thus calling into question the
weight of his own word.

More questions arose after Justice Minister Roman Zvarych's inappropriate
statement about procedural violations during the adoption of the bill on
amendments to the Constitution.

There is no stable pro-government majority in Parliament. The governors,
ministers, and Presidential Secretariat staffers are in suspense, not
knowing if they will stay in office.

To form a professional government in this deep political crisis is an
unfeasible venture: the President, who wants to have a legitimate (i.e.
Parliament-approved) prime minister, has to negotiate more candidatures
for ministerial posts with the lawmakers than he expected.

In addition, it is still unclear which will determine his choice - obedience
and loyalty or professionalism and adherence to principles. The algorithm
set by the President is decisive for the executive government's performance,
for obedient ministers and competent ministers produce different results.

Yushchenko failed to rise above the fight and hold his ground in disputes
between the conflicting sides. He did not foresee the possible "electoral"
consequences of the "zero option". As a result, the political leadership
looks vulnerable, impotent, and unpopular.

THIRD, the Orange Revolution gave the people hopes for a better life and a
new relationship between citizens and authorities. Society gave a clear
signal: apart from bread and butter, the people wanted a different attitude
from officials, policemen, judges, and communal services.

Of course, the budget is not a cornucopia and experts warned the Prime
Minister and the authors of socially-oriented bills that it would be
impossible to quickly satisfy the people. But it was possible tangibly to
change the structure of relations between citizens and authorities. The high
national mood gave that opportunity.

However, such changes never occurred. It was at border-crossing checkpoints,
courts, and communal service offices where the people felt no changes for
the better. That is why they are disposed to believe the accusations the new
opposition levels at the President's men. And if some day the President
himself is accused of something, they will believe such accusations, too.

FOURTH, disappointment is growing both in and beyond this country. After the
Orange Revolution, when this nation demonstrated civic maturity, the
international community expected systemic reforms and a favorable investment
climate. For the first time in its independent history, Ukraine was viewed
as a subject of global political processes and a potential regional leader.

There were hopes that Ukraine would become an effective and positive example
of democratic transformation, which would eventually elevate this country to
a higher economic status. The civilized part of the international community
hoped that a prosperous post-revolutionary Ukraine would be an example for
Russia and Belarus. But how can this conflict-ridden and cash-strapped
country claim the role of a regional leader?

The new political leadership demonstrated a neglect of its mission and
squandered the colossal credit of trust. Once again the country is on the
verge of inviting foreign "peacemakers" to round-table negotiations. But
this time they will hardly come.

FIFTH, Yushchenko's ill-considered decision to sack everyone hardly
justifies the opposition's moves like the recent "revelation" of secret
sources of funding for Yushchenko's election campaign. The idea belonged to
Tymoshenko, who thus reacted to Yushchenko's rash, irresponsible, and
provocative accusation of using state funds in her commercial interests. He
should have foreseen such a reaction.

At the same time, Tymoshenko's team should have used "conventional weapons"
instead of resorting to this retaliatory "nuclear" strike. They should have
known that the fact of Yushchenko's campaign having been funded by Boris
Berezovsky would cast a shadow on Ukraine's international image and give a
pretext to doubt the President's legitimacy. Besides, they should have
remembered who acted as Yushchenko's proxy in the negotiations with the
donor.

Yes, [ex-Chief of the Security Service and Tymoshenko's right-hand man]
Alexander Turchinov had the right to disclose facts of corruption, abuse of
authority, and other misdeeds at a press conference since he had turned to
the Prosecutor General for arrest warrants. Tymoshenko had also repeatedly
and openly stated facts of violations by Poroshenko and [presidential first
aide] Tretyakov.

So now she does not tell anything new to the President or the general
public. But Berezovsky's involvement in Yushchenko's election campaign was
known to Tymoshenko, the campaign staff head Zinchenko, and Zinchenko's
assistant Turchinov. Nevertheless, they closed their eyes to this fact when
receiving top positions from Yushchenko, who became President with the
Russian tycoon's financial support.

Some information about contacts between Berezovsky and Yushchenko was
known to journalists. But they had no documented proof, so the best they
could do was hint about such contacts.

If the new opposition wanted to expose the President as law-breaker, it
should have chosen some weightier "evidence". For example, he appointed a
number of officials in defiance of constitutional norms and many of his
directives exceeded his authority. The "Berezovsky case" or the "Melnychenko
case" can not result in Yushchenko's impeachment, but they can keep him "in
suspense" amidst doubts as to the legitimacy of his election.

Yushchenko's reaction to this threat resembles Kuchma's: he tries to lean on
old and new oligarchs. And if the opposition keeps on cornering him this
way, he might as well seek support in Moscow (where he will hardly be
offered anything but a pen to sign a treaty of capitulation).

In a word, the present situation within the highest political circles is
extremely complicated and fraught with a parliamentary crisis (should the
President try to cancel the constitutional reform), an energy crisis (should
Russia raise the price for its natural gas up to $140 - $160 per thousand
cubic meters), an economic crisis (should the budget deficit continue
growing), and public unrest (should the irresponsible moves of the political
leaders disappoint the masses and incite them to aggression).

It is urgently necessary to look for a way out, but which involves existing
political forces. In the 2006 elections Ukrainian voters will have to choose
from well-known political movements. There is no time left for any new force
to emerge. The only difference between this parliament and the new one will
be the configuration.

There will be the same familiar faces and the same insignificant number of
those meeting the people's demands and expectations. Subsequently, there
will be as few executive officials conversant with the civilized part of the
world.

And even if an early presidential election is announced, there is no
alternative to the familiar figures with all their well-known positive and
negative features. So no matter how this crisis ends, Ukraine is doomed to
be ruled by the same people. A more likely qualitative change is the loss of
its economic and political sovereignty. Is it what the people demanded
during the Orange Revolution?

The situation is aggravated by the mutual animosity within the President's
divided team. Therefore, the first step must be an immediate "ceasefire" and
negotiations, because this war will not only exterminate the politicians
involved in it. It will also make the majority of Ukrainians doubt the
choice of democracy and bury the world community's hopes for democracy in
this country.

Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Zinchenko, and Turchinov could
negotiate a ceasefire at a session of the National Security and Defense
Council or in any other format. A tete-a-tete meeting between Yushchenko
and Tymoshenko, however important, would not suffice, because it is
necessary to make "team decisions" - an extremely difficult task,
considering the facts disclosed and emotions poured out.

Gluing together the broken pot is out of question. The only subject of such
negotiations would be the rules and terms of further coexistence and
possible ways out of the crisis.

There may be different ways and scenarios.

SCENARIO NUMBER ONE: the President publicly and finally abandons his
attempts to block constitutional reform, states January 1, 2006 as the date
of its enactment, and confirms that the new parliament will form a coalition
government in April. Yushchenko should regard this step as a pledge of
political reconciliation rather than self-sacrifice.

It would give him seven months with a parliamentary majority and a
legitimate government. It would save millions that otherwise would go to
gorge the appetites of parliamentary factions that sell their votes. It
would keep some odious figures away from ministerial positions.

Parallel to that, the President promises that by April his team and invited
experts will draft key legislative acts pertaining to identification of
economic priorities and reformation of the taxation system. Then everyone
will know what the President will be doing during the election race. In
addition, Yushchenko guarantees an objective and transparent investigation
of all accusations of corruption and other misdeeds that have surfaced over
the last fortnight.

SCENARIO NUMBER TWO: following a thorough investigation into the alleged
facts of corruption, Yushchenko reinstates either the dismissed members of
government or members of his team. He openly revises relationships between
them. The sides conclude a comprehensible treaty on cooperation in the
election campaign and run for parliament together.

SCENARIO NUMBER THREE: seeing no other means, Yushchenko orders
the arrest of representatives of the new opposition and the country returns
to total censorship and manual management of economy.

SCENARIO NUMBER FOUR: as passions keep raging, radical forces come
to the fore. The confrontation goes beyond the government buildings and TV
screens and culminates in a revolt aimed at changing power in the country.

SCENARIO NUMBER FIVE: things go their own way and the flow of proven and
half-proven accusations peters out in the next week. New accusations keep
coming, but the public is uninterested and apathetic. Nobody controls the
situation and the latent war goes on for seven moths. Everyone reaps the
fruit after the elections.

Any of these scenarios, except for the last, looks fantastical today. But
tomorrow any of them may become real. And the awareness of this possibility
should make the "belligerents" hold their fire. Both Yushchenko's and
Tymoshenko's teams have plenty of other things to do. Firstly, they have to
look for new faces that could be trusted by voters. Secondly, they have to
start building structures necessary for the election campaign.

Yet, as long as this political leadership has not reached the point of no
return in losing its reputation, there is a chance for reanimating the faith
and hopes of the Orange Revolution. That would take titanic efforts and
real deeds for the good of the nation.

But if the leadership and the opposition are ignorant of their
responsibility and fail to settle the crisis, then this country does need a
"zero option" - simultaneous parliamentary and presidential elections.
And I envy those who believe that it is the best way out. -30-
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