ANALYTICAL REPORT: by Oleg Ustenko, Julia Segura, Valentyn Povroznyuk, Edilberto L. Segura SigmaBleyzer multinational private equity firm & The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), Kyiv, Ukraine Published by the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), Washington, D.C., Fri, Dec 22, 2017 

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The "Ukraine Macroeconomic Situation – November 2017" analytical report with several charts and graphs is attached to this communication.  The monthly Macroeconomic Situation report is prepared by the SigmaBleyzer multinational private equity firm, www.SigmaBleyzer.com, and The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), www.BleyzerFoundation.org, Kyiv, Ukraine, who are members of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), http://www.USUBC.org. 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -----

(1)  Russian-backed separatists continue their military confrontations in the Eastern part of Ukraine. Although the intensity of artillery shootings has decreased, it still varies from 5 to 40 per day.  The  introduction of UN peacekeepers is already preliminary agreed by the major players involved into the conflict resolution, including OSCE, EU and NATO.
(2)  On the reform agenda, Ukraine's international partners have made explicit that further international assistance would depend of the acceleration of the process of reform, including the setting of anticorruption courts, ensuring the independence and viability of the newly established anticorruption agencies, and implementing deeper reform of the judiciary. Recently, President Petro  Poroshenko announced that he would submit a new law on the establishment of the Anti-Corruption Court before the end of December.

(3)  In October Ukraine's industrial sector showed signs of recovery, with a growth rate of 0.4% yoy (compared to a decline of -0.3% yoy in January-September).  Mining activities continued to be depressed, with quarrying dropping by -8.1% yoy; coal, by -25.1% yoy; lignite, by -0.5% yoy; and metal ore, by -6.4% yoy. On the other hand, in October Ukraine manufacturing grew by 5.7% yoy.

(4)  The consolidated fiscal budget deficit (state and local) for the month of October was at UAH 10.4 billion, reducing the cumulative fiscal surplus from the beginning of the year to UAH 31.2 billion (or a surplus of about 1.3% of period GDP).

(5)  Consumer inflation decelerated from 16.4% yoy in September to 14.6% yoy in October. At the same time, core inflation further expanded, reaching 8.1% yoy.

(6)  In the banking sector, bank deposits in October increased by 10.4% yoy for Hryvnia deposits and by 4.7% yoy for foreign currency deposits.  On the lending side, household loans in Hryvnias expanded by 23.6% yoy, whereas corporate loans in Hryvnias increased by 13.4% yoy. The growth of money supply in October was 6.7% yoy.

(7)  During November, the UAH/USD exchange rate saw several reversals of trends.  As a result, the UAH/USD exchange rate depreciated by about 1.0% during the month reaching 27.1 UAH per USD by the end of November.

(8)  In October 2017, Ukraine’s current account deficit of the balance of payments declined by 55% mom to USD 408   million. This current account improvement in October 2017 was due to a reduction in the primary investment income account of USD 534 million during the month.  Since net financial inflows amounted to USD 563 million in October, they covered the current account deficit and allowed international reserves to increase to USD 18.7 billion by the end of October 2017 (3.7 month of the future imports).

NOTE:  The entire Macroeconomic Situation Report for November 2017 can be found in the attachment  Ukr-Monthly_Ec_Report_November 2017-v2.pdf

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NEWS: For the latest news about Ukraine go to the KYIV POST website: www.KyivPost.com.

The Kyiv Post of the ISTIL Group is a member of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC).  
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U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC)
"A strong international voice for business in Ukraine for over 20 years"
Washington, D.C., mwilliams@usubc.org; www.USUBC.org

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