WASHINGTON, D.C. - The "Ukraine Macroeconomic Situation – September 2018" analytical report with several charts and graphs can be found at the link below.  The monthly Macroeconomic Situation report is prepared by the SigmaBleyzer multinational private equity firm, www.SigmaBleyzer.com, and The Bleyzer Foundation (TBF), www.BleyzerFoundation.org, Kyiv, Ukraine, who are long time members of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council (USUBC), http://www.USUBC.org.  

Executive Summary

1. An IMF mission visited Kiev from September 6^th to 19^th to assess the status of conditionality under the IMF's EFF Program. The mission is still finalizing its work in Washington DC and has not reported its findings yet.  The two pending matters are increases in residential gas prices, and issues in the state fiscal budget. 
2. In October, the agenda of the Verhovna Rada includes amendments to anticorruption legislation, which should put it in line with the Venice Commission’s recommendations. In addition, it is expected that the operations of the State Bureau for Investigation would be fully equipped with the required legal framework.
3. The State Statistics Service has revised upwards its estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter of the year from 3.6% yoy to 3.8 % yoy. This higher-than-expected economic growth follows a first quarter growth rate of 3.1% yoy. The principal drivers of economic growth were strong domestic investments and consumption.
4. The latest monthly data for August 2018 show strong performance by the agricultural sector (with a growth rate of 9.0% yoy), retail trade turnover (7.5% yoy growth rate), and passenger turnover (5.1% yoy growth).  On the other hand, Ukrainian industrial output fell by 0.5% yoy in August.
5. The consolidated fiscal budget remains satisfactorily, with a surplus of UAH 27.0 billion in August.  For the period January-August, the consolidated surplus expanded to UAH 34.4 billion (about 1.7% of the period GDP.)
6. Consumer inflation remained below 10% in August but above the NBU's target inflation range of 5% ± 1%. The all items index reached 9.0% yoy slightly above 8.9% yoy reported in last month.
7. In the banking sector, both deposits and lending continued to improve in August. Hryvnia deposits expanded by 11.3% yoy while Hryvnia loans expanded by 13.5% yoy. Foreign currency loans almost doubled to 3.6% yoy.  
8. Despite some trend reversals during September, the exchange rate remained almost unchanged, finishing the month at around 28.2 UAH/USD.
9. In August 2018, the current account deficit shrank by 45% to USD 0.6 billion, compared to a current account deficit of USD 1.1 billion in July 2018.  On a month-to-month basis, exports of goods increased by 12.7 % to USD 3.7 billion, while imports of goods declined by 1.6% mom to USD 5.0 billion.  The current account deficit of USD 0.6 billion was fully covered by financial inflows, with the level of international reserves remaining at about USD 17.2 billion. 

NOTE: The entire Macroeconomic Situation Report for September 2018 can be found at the link below: Ukr_Monthly_Ec_Report_September_2018.pdf